Global Oil Markets Swing Amid Uncertainty Over Iran-US Peace Deal | NewsX World

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-31

[00:00:03]Hello and welcome to the world report.

[00:00:05]I'm Ruby Barlow. Let's take a look at some of our top headlines from the hour.

[00:00:12]Iran and the US have reportedly [music] reached a deal to extend the ceasefire another 60 days and allow shipping through the Strait [music] of Hormuz.

[00:00:19]However, Iranian media has said it is still not finalized and the plan still needs US President Donald Trump's approval.

[00:00:28]Iran and the United States had previously [music] exchanged strikes yesterday with the US hitting Bandar Abbas, a Iranian [music] port city.

[00:00:40]US [music] Vice President JD Vance has said they're still working on language of the deal, particularly regarding nuclear enrichment, [music] but has said it is still too early to say when or if a deal will even be signed. He's also [music] said he believed the Iranians were acting in good faith.

[00:01:00]As a tentative deal [music] has been struck, the United States Treasury Department has announced fresh sanctions on Iranian [music] oil, sanctioning eight vessels involved in crude oil and petroleum products. The vessels are flagged under a various [music] different countries.

[00:01:18]Israel has been added [music] by the United Nations to a blacklist of sexual violence in conflict zones. The Israeli ambassador to the [music] United Nations has now said Israel will cut ties with the UN chief, Antonio Guterres. There's been backlash [music] from Israel about the decision. However, there has been previous investigations by NGOs and human rights groups into Israel's conduct in the past.

[00:01:43]Two were injured in Romania [music] after a drone has struck an apartment building in the city of Galați, close to the border with Ukraine. The drone struck the 10-floor [music] apartment building starting a fire. Local authorities are investigating the origin of the drone.

[00:02:02]South Korea's [music] Kakao Corp has said union demands for profit sharing were unrealistic as the tech company [music] tries to focus on investor interests. The union has been in talks with management [music] for a new pay deal amidst wider industrial relations tensions across South Korea with workers for Samsung recently going on strike.

[00:02:24]A 21-year-old [music] man has been jailed in Austria for 15 years over a plan to carry out a jihadist attack at a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna in 2024.

[00:02:34]The man was also found guilty of a string of other charges. [music] Following the discovery of the plot at the time, all three of Taylor Swift's Austrian shows were cancelled.

[00:02:46]And finally, finishing [music] with the market, oil prices settled mixed after conflicting reports of progress on [music] a potential ceasefire deal.

[00:02:53]Brent crude future closed down 0.6% at $93.71 a barrel [music] and August Brent futures were traded up at 72 cents at 92.97 [music] cents a barrel.

[00:03:12]We start this morning with the markets.

[00:03:14]The global oil markets are caught between hope and uncertainty as traders weigh the prospect of an Iran-US peace deal against the stark reality that no agreement has been signed.

[00:03:25]Oil futures edged down slightly in early Friday trading as hopes grew that the United States and Iran could reach an agreement to extend the current ceasefire and eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:03:36]However, those price drops were sharply limited after US Vice President J.D.

[00:03:39]Vance tempered expectations saying that while the two countries are getting closer to a deal as they have not yet reached one.

[00:03:47]Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell 35 cents or 0.37% to $93 and 36 cents a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures dropped 63 cents or 0.71% to $88 and 27 cents a barrel.

[00:04:05]Brent Crude Futures for August also declined by 46 cents or 0.5% to $92 and 24 cents a barrel.

[00:04:14]These price movements are modest. The direction of travel is telling the markets clearly pricing in growing capability the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon.

[00:04:24]Before the war, Brent Crude was trading at around $70 a barrel meaning even with today's slight drop, oil remains more than 30% above pre-war levels.

[00:04:35]Now we're joined by Sharad Kohli, a senior economist joining us now from New Delhi. Good morning Sharad, welcome back to the channel. Thanks very much for your time today to discuss these latest movements in the market.

[00:04:47]Now there's been some mixed reactions regarding these developments coming out over the last couple of hours. Some movements in the market going up, some going down.

[00:04:58]And of course over the long term we have seen the price in oil gradually increase and increase and increase over the last four months.

[00:05:09]Now Sharad, if indeed a deal is reached, some analysts do say that we won't see oil drop back to pre-war prices due to the damage in investor confidence and in confidence in the Strait of Hormuz and also damage to those actual physical facilities there in that region that are responsible for such a massive production output of oil worldwide.

[00:05:36]Sharad, how can we expect to see these negotiations impact the market in the short term, in the long term and when can consumers hope to see some some some easing on the pressure of cost of living for them?

[00:05:52]>> A good morning Ruby to you and the viewers. I think it's a bit too early for consumers to expect the prices to go back to the levels which they were prior to the war. Well, they were around 65 to $70 at that point of time.

[00:06:06]I think that seems so far-fetched level as of now because the the truce first of all is too fragile. There's no deal yet.

[00:06:13]And we heard JD Vance saying that it may happen, it may not happen. And it's awaiting President Trump's approval anyway. Iran has got some reservations.

[00:06:23]And we should not forget this is only a 60-day truce. So, within those 60 days, well, during the ceasefire we've seen missiles flying from either side. So, how how effective is the truce? That's my first doubt. Whether it happens is the second doubt. And then as you said, even if it happens and the crude oil price drops down a little bit more, it will find very hard to go back to the levels which it was before because some of the damages are permanent or at least very long term. It just might take a couple of years to to make things back to normal. I have a feeling Ruby that uh you know, the new normal in the in the oil prices even when the truce is there could be $75, $80.

[00:07:05]I don't see it going to the $65 level anytime very very soon, which means that global inflation is going to creep in to most countries. We saw the US inflationary numbers yesterday.

[00:07:17]Uh where the personal consumption expenditure based inflation has come to 3.8.

[00:07:22]So, it's been climbing back here in India where I'm sitting right now, uh we saw the wholesale price index, the WPI as it's called, is climbing up to 8.3 across the world from from America to Australia, from Europe to Africa, we've seen inflation climbing up, energy prices going up, gas prices going up, fuel prices is going up, and most of the you know, groceries and consumables which people buy, they are becoming expensive. So, I think this war is is proving to be extremely detrimental for the global economy as such. And I already foresee a major part of the globe sinking into recession, Ruby.

[00:07:59]>> Recession.

[00:08:01]Sharad, if indeed we did sink into a recession, how how could the world cope? Is there is there a need to diversify beyond fossil fuels if indeed this impact to the oil industry will last for such a long time?

[00:08:21]Is there a way that governments can cope with a long-term impact from this war?

[00:08:28]If indeed it will affect the oil market so much, hopefully we'll see increased access to fertilizers coming out of the straight of formulas as well, but this long-term damage to to the the petrochemical industry is sure to make a massive impact. How do governments cope?

[00:08:46]>> Well, I think renewable energy is is there's already a you know, a kind of a revolution going around the world, but then I think there is an accelerator which needs to be pressed right now. We are seeing the sale of electric vehicles in many of the countries you know, you know, shooting up.

[00:09:04]People are buying more of electric vehicles, you know, you know, during the last few days ever since the prices have started shooting up. Well, I think there is also a need Ellie, I feel that the world needs to get out of of the bondages and slavery of US dollar because at the root of most of the problems, the economic problems around the world is the dollar.

[00:09:24]And the dollar is trying to behave like a dawn right now, and I think it is it is if the dollar de-dollarization speeds up around the world, most of the countries want to speed up de-dollarization. I think most of the economic woes of the problem would be solved. So, I very strongly feel that soon as this war settles down or soon as Strait of Hormuz opens up, I think US dollar needs to be thrown out the window. I'm sorry for being so harsh because that's where I feel is the root of the problem. You know, the forex reserves of various countries, the petrodollars because of which the crude oil prices are going up. You know, international trade which is impacted because of the US dollar and so many other economic elements which which which have their roots in the US dollar.

[00:10:08]So, I think if that one problem is solved and I'm sure it's it's not going to make Donald Trump very happy, but then so be it. That's what the the current world economy demands at this point of time, Ruby.

[00:10:19]>> Indeed a very dynamic proposition there, Sharad. Thank you very much for joining us on News X. Well, it's always a pleasure to hear your analysis and have a chat with you.

[00:10:29]Now, we move to some developments now in West Asia.

[00:10:33]Israel has issued force displacement orders for an entire residential block in Gaza City, ordering all remaining residents to flee their homes immediately as an Israeli drone simultaneously struck an area southwest of the city, killing one person and injuring several others in the latest round of violence to tear through the besieged territory.

[00:10:52]The operations come directly on the orders of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has directed Israel's military to expand its occupation of Gaza and take control of 70% of the entire Palestinian territory.

[00:11:06]An ambition that would represent the most dramatic land seizure inside Gaza since the war began in October 2023.

[00:11:15]Israeli troops are simultaneously pushing deeper into southern Lebanon in defiance of the ceasefire that officially came into effect April 17th.

[00:11:24]With air strikes continuing to pound towns and villages across the south of the country on a daily basis.

[00:11:35]Now, we're joined live by Matthew Vadum.

[00:11:38]He's joining us from Washington, D.C. in the States.

[00:11:42]He's a journalist. Matthew, welcome back. Thanks very much for joining us today on the channel. Now, some more forced displacement orders to an area in Gaza City, of course, also further pushes by Israel north into southern Lebanon as well. We've just heard news this morning that perhaps a deal is very close indeed between Iran and the United States after a week of very contradictory statements coming from the president himself.

[00:12:18]Do we think that perhaps these latest pushes from Israel in the north and in the south are perhaps last-ditch efforts to make make use of the time that they have.

[00:12:34]Indeed, if Iran does push for a wider regional calm as part of a deal with the United States and stipulates that that there must be an end to conflict between Hezbollah and Israel and between Hamas and Israel as well. Do you think it could be perhaps in that context or is it merely just the next development developments in these two conflicts?

[00:13:00]>> So, you're asking if Israel is just getting in you know, a few good attacks before it's forced to stop if there's a big ceasefire between Iran and the United States and that and that it it covers, you know, Israeli activities.

[00:13:19]And you know, that is possible that that's why they they want to do it.

[00:13:23]However, the terms of the ceasefire between Iran and and and Lebanon, you know, pertaining to that conflict, are the ceasefire is fairly porous. It has loopholes in it where Israel can respond to um attacks on it. So, it can it can act defensively. Now, how that's being interpreted, I'm not exactly sure. But, um you know, the the the attacks have not stopped as a result of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. And um I I suspect I suspect they won't. So, may maybe Israel is getting in a few good shots before it's forced to um give up its military operations as part of a wider US-Iran um you know, peace deal. So, they may be thinking strategically there uh and that and you know, and that and that's why why they're doing this. So, um it Israel never wanted to have a ceasefire. Israel wants to be able to um defeat its enemies.

[00:14:32]Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, in the Palestinian area.

[00:14:40]And, you know, it only was agreed to ceasefires when it was strong-armed into doing so by President Trump because he thought that having Israel be engaged in a ceasefire would help bolster would help support um his ceasefire with Iran. So, Israel never wanted to go along with it. Israel wants to keep fighting. So, it's not surprising that they continue to fight.

[00:15:07]>> Um Matthew, of course, we have also heard these developments this morning about uh the Vice President saying that uh there is a deal very close being negotiated. He said that he thinks uh right now Iran is negotiating in good faith. Um so it does seem after last weekend's statements uh from the president saying that a deal was likely to be negotiated, it does seem that perhaps a deal is close uh even despite strikes yesterday that we did see between uh US and Iran. Um Do Of course uh the relationship between Israel and the United States is very close, but Israel is a junior partner in this relationship and also in this war as well. Um There's been reports that Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned about his ability to affect uh Donald Trump's decision-making as well. Um Do you think that uh a final negotiation between the US and Iran will take into account Israel's uh requests, of course the proxies being a major concern for them, um or will the United States rather just get a negotiation uh written out and completed?

[00:16:25]>> Well, I I think the the issue here is Iran because Iran insists that um any any peace deal um you know, includes uh Israel. They want Israel to stop its attacks against their friends, their their allies, um Hezbollah uh in Lebanon, for example.

[00:16:48]So, um will will the United States agree to um let Israel continue to um you know, to a to attack, to um defend itself, and to to um you know, look at take care of its own affairs?

[00:17:06]Um I I I It's not really clear how how that's going to work. I I really can't imagine the United States handcuffing Israel completely. I did just don't think the Trump administration wants to do that. But Donald Trump is very big on loyalty and if he, you know, told Benjamin Netanyahu to, you know, to stand down and to let him take the lead on this, he expects Netanyahu to to be obedient and and to go along with that. So, I find it very difficult to answer your question and, you know, we're going to have to see what details get worked out.

[00:17:45]>> Indeed.

[00:17:46]Matthew, please don't go very far. We'll be rejoining with you very shortly.

[00:17:51]Now, we move to Moscow where senior Iranian officials, Ali Bagheri Kani, has held high-level sideline talks with his Egyptian and Brazilian counterparts, navigating intense diplomatic waters as tension spike in West Asia.

[00:18:07]Meeting at the 14th International Meeting of High Representatives for Security Issues, Bagheri Kani sat down with Celso Amorim, the chief foreign policy adviser to Brazil's president to discuss bilateral cooperation and the volatile situation across West Asia.

[00:18:23]A separate critical meeting was also held with an official from Egypt's National Security Council.

[00:18:29]The diplomatic push comes as Washington slaps fresh sanctions on networks funding Iran's military and just hours after local air defenses responded to a flare-up of drone and missile strikes near the vital Strait of Hormuz.

[00:18:42]Iranian officials are reportedly using the Moscow Security Forum as a strategic platform to expand diplomatic engagement and rally support among key emerging partners to seek an independent framework for regional stability.

[00:18:57]Now, back to you, Matthew. What could an independent framework for regional stability look like in this case? Of course, we've heard this morning that these negotiations are perhaps progressing along Um, that we could see some sort of deal uh being negotiated very soon. Uh the issue of the nuclear material also being resolved in the next 60 days, more or less. Um, but we've heard here that in a meeting in Moscow, Iran's been meeting with some some partners um and perhaps discussing an independent framework for regional stability. Um, could we be seeing other partners like Brazil now becoming into this situation?

[00:19:41]>> That's possible, but I have to wonder what you know, Brazil would really have to contribute um to the situation. It's not um you know, it's not in the scheme of things, it's not really a world power and I I I I really don't know what what they could do to help, but um the fact that you know, that there are these this peace summit is being held in Moscow, I don't know, makes me kind of makes me kind of suspicious. I don't uh uh you know, as an American journalist and you know, analyst, I don't really trust the Russians and if they're involved in something, I tend to think that it's usually no good. So, um you know, the fact that Russia is orchestrating all of this makes me you know, makes me actually very suspicious of what's going on. We know that Russia and China are not providing direct military aid to Iran in its war with the US and Israel, but they are providing, you know, behind the scenes report uh a support. They're allowing access to their, you know, spy satellites and and providing other technological support.

[00:20:53]So, you know, Russia's really not an an honest broker in this.

[00:20:59]Um you know, they have their own interests and uh they you know, they are uh, opposed to to American interests and to uh Israeli interests, Iran is is their ally and they want to do what they can to help Iran.

[00:21:16]>> Mhm.

[00:21:17]Um, Matthew, of course, there's also, um, uh, this meeting has been with other high representatives for security issues. Of course, we've heard about meetings with, uh, the representative from Brazil, uh, meetings with representatives from Egypt as well. Um, why would Iran be uh, reaching out diplomatically, um, at this stage if perhaps negotiations are close to wrapping up? Are they looking for perhaps, uh, you know, a diplomatic push as a plan B in case, uh, these negotiations do fall through once again?

[00:21:58]>> I think Iran, from because of Iran's behavior during this war that started on February the 28th, Iran uh, needs all the friends it can get. It's alienated, um, you know, most of the countries in the Middle East that were either neutral towards Iran or, you know, a little bit friendly, uh, by attacking uh, US military installations in there um, that were being hosted by those countries. So, I think Iran is trying to reach out and gather as many um, uh, friends around the world, um, at as it can't as it can because it it it's running out of friends. It has the two most powerful friends, Russia and China, but, you know, who else do they who else do they really have?

[00:22:46]Um, Iran has alienated so many, uh, countries um, with its, uh, behavior and with its, um, you know, erratic military attacks, you know, lobbing missiles and drones at at Middle Eastern, you know, other Muslim countries.

[00:23:04]Iran's made a lot of enemies. So, Iran is trying to make up for make up for lost time and um and and you know, gather as many friends as it can. So, I suspect that's why um it it's engaged in this outreach with with with Brazil.

[00:23:22]>> Mhm.

[00:23:23]Matthew, thanks very much for joining us. It's always a pleasure to have you on NewsX World and I'm happy to have you with me.

[00:23:30]Now, we move to some space news. Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket exploded during a hot fire test on the launch pad in Cape Canaveral in Florida, though officials said no injuries were reported from the incident.

[00:23:45]Elon Musk, who founded Blue Origin rival company SpaceX, offered his condolences calling the accident most unfortunate.

[00:23:53]Video from the incident shows smoke emerging from beneath the rocket, which stands 98 m tall, before it fully combusts into a massive fireball.

[00:24:01]The explosion is the latest setback for the space exploration company owned by billionaire Jeff Bezos, and the New Glenn rocket is at the heart of the company's space ambitions.

[00:24:11]Last month, Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket failed in mission to deliver a communication satellite into the correct orbit, prompting an investigation.

[00:24:25]And that's all that we do have time for.

[00:24:27]Please keep watching NewsX World for more news updates coming to you from around the world.

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