Winston Churchill's unique leadership style, oratory skills, and personal relationships with key allies like Roosevelt were crucial to Britain's survival and eventual victory in WWII; had he been removed from power in 1940-1942, Britain might have pursued appeasement, the American alliance might not have developed, and the post-war international order could have been fundamentally different.
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What if Winston Churchill had died in WW2? 'The whole picture changes'
Added:I think his golden [music] hour, his his hour of fame and glory would have still resonated in history >> [music] >> whether he'd died or whether he'd lived.
>> Without that personality there, you're thinking how do the driest dust foreign [music] office and the Dominion office and the colonial office actually deal with this?
>> He walks around the White House in the nude [music] and says to says to Roosevelt, uh, the Prime Minister of Britain has got nothing to hide from the President of the United States.
>> That sort of ruthless decision is made by Churchill alone. Nobody else makes that decision. So, he needs to be there for that. And you look at he is the man of the hour, you know, at any other time he might have not have been the right person, but he is at this point. And he drags the Americans across >> What was more likely, I think, to remove Churchill was the Grim [music] Reaper himself. Yeah. Churchill was a lifelong heavy drinker, smoked cigars, as we know, smoked like a chimney, drank like a fish. He he was a stranger [music] to the gym, took next to no exercise, was small, fat, and corpulent. And, uh, >> But he says nice things about you though, indeed.
>> Indeed. [laughter] I like that he lived. I'm sure he could have lived longer.
>> an iron constitution and he [music] lived to be 90 years old.
>> For Britain at least, 1940 represents a defining moment of the Second World War.
The Nazi Blitzkrieg had moved [music] through Europe in a flash and driven British forces off the continent. Later that year, while the streets across major [music] cities lay empty, bombs rained from the skies above as the Blitz caused catastrophic damage. Yet, Britain [music] would not go down quietly. And perhaps the most significant event was one man taking up the position of Prime Minister and wartime leader, one Winston Churchill. [music] Of course, he would go on to lead the nation through the remainder of the war, but it was not without [music] incident.
There were moments of disquiet, failure, and even ill health.
So, where might we be had Churchill been taken out of the equation?
>> I'm Fergus McFee, and welcome to History UnDone, the show where we look at how the briefest of moments can shape our world. Every episode, we focus on a different military campaign or a tide of history, and with the help of our [music] experts, we ask whether split-second decisions could have changed the outcome and history itself.
Today is the Second World [music] War and the man who took Britain to victory.
Winston Churchill is remembered as a historical [music] titan. Yet, what if this lasting legacy had not come to pass? Could he have been ousted [music] during the war? Could he even have been killed? These are questions for our experts, and joining me today, as ever, the historian and author Rear Admiral Dr. Chris Parry, and returning to the channel, the historian and journalist Nigel Jones. Welcome to you both.
Now, we have in front of us, as we so often do on History UnDone, our favorite large-scale map of Europe, circa 1940.
Uh now, in this episode, we're going to be talking about a lot of counterfactuals, jumping around all over the place. Uh but, let's start here in northern France with the fall of France.
Uh you get D-Day, you get the cabinet crisis, of course, in London. Now, this is something that we've covered before on this program. You two gentlemen have even covered it ourselves.
[clears throat] We won't retread too much ground. But, Chris, is it fair to say, in asking whether, you know, uh asking whether Churchill could have been ousted or even died, this might be where our story begins?
>> Certainly, and I think uh what we have to mention, of course, is that Churchill is in power because of a disastrous Norway campaign by uh the Chamberlain government. Um whether or not Chamberlain himself was to blame for that or Churchill as well, to tell you the truth, it was all a bit mixed up. Um but, there was a a real sort of atmosphere of discontent with the Chamberlain government, and there were large numbers of Tories who basically wanted a change. Uh the Labour Party didn't particularly like um Chamberlain, so that was always going to be a problem uh in a in a wartime government. And the short of it long of the short of it is there was a coup.
Churchill found his way into number 10 and immediately took over direction of the war. And one of the really controversial issues, of course, with Churchill is he decided to be Prime Minister and basically running the strategic side of the war as well. His own Ministry of Defense, if you like. And this comes into play later in 1942.
Immediately, Churchill starts trying to keep France in the war and he shuttles across by air.
As Nigel and I have spoken just before the program, you know, anytime. I think he shuttled eight times, Nigel, across.
Six times, but yeah, yeah. Could have been shot down anytime in a war zone and he could have been straight out of the game. The other thing I think is worth bearing in mind is that not everybody in the Conservative Party, by a long way, is happy with Churchill being Prime Minister.
And they talk about him and his clique being gangsters. They talk about reptilian satellites. I mean, it's really quite strong. So, all the while he's trying to keep France in the game, the Conservative Party is waking up to what they've got here. They're not quite sure. They know what Churchill's record from the First World War. He's been a constant irritant to the party during the 1930s.
But he has consistently opposed Germany.
That's the key point.
But we shouldn't be under under any illusions. Chamberlain thinks he can make a comeback. And there are a lot of discontented Conservatives who are not prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt at this stage.
>> And Nigel, Chris has almost teased it there.
Between sort of May and June, as we say, Churchill kind of makes these flights over the channel towards France. I think by the end of June, the RAF has already lost around 100 aircraft at this point.
So, it's by no means a sure thing that >> Exactly. It was a a reckless thing to to do, but it is a measure of Churchill's courage, reckless courage, that he did it. I mean, he could have been a casualty of war at that point, and there's no doubt in my mind that the whole history of the war would have been different had he been shot down on that occasion.
>> Yeah. And at this point, in 1940, the obvious successor, I think I think you two might disagree on this slightly, is Lord Halifax.
>> Well, I think Halifax thinks so. That's That's [laughter] the first thing. I mean, we shouldn't discount a Chamberlain comeback, actually.
I think quite a lot of people had sort of buyers regret almost straight away in the Conservative Party.
The key issue is that the the Labour Party under Attlee will not work with Chamberlain again. They actually set their face against it. So, that's what really stops it happening. But, the plotting the plotting continues at this stage. And if there'd been a maladroit move straight away by Churchill, or indeed Churchill had gone down, I think the obvious successor is Halifax at this point. Remember, we haven't quite lost in the West yet. So, Halifax comes to the fore later.
I think my own view about it is it's up for grabs, actually. There's quite a few people who could have actually stepped up.
Sir John Simon, for example. He's a likely person. They've all faded into the background because of the way history's gone at the moment. But, there were a number of people who could have stepped forward.
>> Um >> The crucial thing is that Churchill wanted the prize. He'd been All his life, as he said when he took it up, had been a preparation for this hour. And Halifax, frankly, didn't want it. He was an aristocrat. He was a member of the House of Lords. That was quite important. He couldn't face the House of Commons to explain what was going on in the war. He was crippled. He had a withered arm.
He was interested in country sports, in hunting, shooting, the Anglican Church.
And he wasn't really a man of the 20th century. He's a man of the 19th century.
And he was offered it on a plate.
Chamberlain wanted him to be Prime Minister. The King wanted him to be Prime Minister. Most MPs wanted him to be Prime Minister. And he turned it down. He said he had a stomach ache.
>> He didn't think he was up to it. And he feared actually having Churchill in the cabinet.
>> [laughter] >> So so there was a problem there. So he he he actually deferred to Churchill in that sense.
>> And Churchill then gives him a role. He becomes ambassador to the United >> Well, in initially, he stays as foreign secretary. But Churchill sees he's a problem.
So he says I've got to get rid of Halifax because you know the discontents are actually sort of rallying around Halifax. And Halifax of course once the the French heading towards surrender starts saying well we should talk to Mussolini. We need to get terms. You know it's much better if we keep our empire and leave Europe to the Nazis and all this sort of thing. And of course Churchill is dead set against that. And a by October 1940 he's found a role for him in the state. He doesn't want to go. He can't stand the Americans. He thinks they're vulgar.
And the prospect of being in Washington appalls him.
But eventually he's he's convinced he has to go.
>> Okay, Nigel. So if we go through 1940 we'll get to the Blitz in just a second.
But you also have the Battle of Britain.
And you have that famous speech you know never has so much been owed by so many to so few.
>> Well, it's fighting on the beaches and all that sort of thing as well. Yeah.
>> Yeah. Is there a sense that however long that goes on could the public and those close to him be fed up and oust him there if things aren't >> Rather, I think the public fell in love with Churchill at this point because of his oratory. Because of his determination that Britain would not uh surrender, would not make any terms, would not go for a deal in the Trump sense of the word, but would fight on whatever the odds. He said to his own cabinet, "This war will not end till we lie on the ground choking in our own blood. That was That was how And he conveyed that sense of determination to resist to the public through his famous radio addresses.
>> It's very hard to imagine today, at least in Britain, a politician getting their message across quite as well.
>> Almost impossible.
>> Well, the other the interesting thing is, can you imagine Halifax trying to get that message across? I mean, no other politician could be I I think as as sort of effective as that in actually galvanizing the kingdom. And one of the things from a previous episode, uh it's worth mentioning, I think, is the fact that Britain didn't think it was going to lose.
>> Yeah.
>> So, he was able to, if you like, enhance that sort of view that we can't lose, you know, we're we're we're safe here in our island kingdom. Um and I and I think that had he not been there, we would almost certainly have approached Mussolini and said, "Talk to Hitler, will you, and see what's going on."
>> Absolutely.
>> Does he also [clears throat] have This question for both of you. Does he also have that safety net that once Halifax doesn't want it?
>> Yeah.
>> Are there other people around close to him thinking there's no one else is actually up to the job?
>> Well, well, Chamberlain is still there.
>> He's aging. [clears throat] >> He's ill. I mean, that's the key point.
That doesn't come out until just before the Battle of Britain. But Chamberlain is still hankering to come back again.
That's the point. And there is a significant amount of Tory party that actually wants him back.
>> Labour Party doesn't want him. And absolutely there was a coalition national government. You had to have the Labour Party on side. And that was Chamberlain's fatal handicap, I think.
>> Yeah, yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> That's why it wasn't going to happen.
But they're still plotting behind the scenes. That's the point.
>> Okay. Now, let's get to the little bit of the fun part. So, we'll talk We'll talk We'll get to the talk about the Blitz here.
Um there is actually a bomb in October 1940 which falls on Treasury Gardens, very, very close to Downing Street. By this point, Churchill has not is not sort of living in his war rooms. He is still in Downing Street. So, that is potentially >> Fergus >> a a place there where, you know, could Churchill have died in the Blitz?
>> Well, there's another one, actually.
Chequers is wide open initially. They they don't actually put any defenses around Chequers. And, in fact, the leading features, and I've seen it from the air, are actually a fantastic for actually going and bombing Chequers. And so, the Germans knew he he was out of town sometimes. And, in fact, they had to put quite significant measures [clears throat] in terms of they put a lot of soldiers in there one stage.
But, also some air defenses as well. So, he could have been done in Chequers as well as in central London.
>> country home, Chartwell in Kent, was actually on the bomb run running to London. And so, that was sort of out as well. I mean, Churchill was a brave man, and eventually he found a country house. I think it's called Ditchling or Ditsley Manor owned by an MP called Ronald Tree >> Yeah.
>> who who was one of his few supporters in the Conservative Party who lent it to him as his country home, because as Chris said, Chequers was found to be too dangerous. There was a big white drive leading up to it, which in the end they had to cover with turf to disguise it from the >> This is a little bit It's here.
>> pointed But, so so yeah, and uh >> And it's an it's an 8-month long bombing campaign. It's far more rudimentary than now. There's no GPS. I mean, he could have got He could have been caught up in the bombing.
>> and he very often would appear in the streets after a particularly severe raid to show his face among the people, if you like, to show that he was on their side and with them and also in danger from them. And the next year, in May 1941, the House of Commons was completely destroyed in a raid.
I mean, bombing affected all classes. If you were upper class, it was no defense.
Buckingham Palace was bombed. Downing Street, as as you said, or the Treasury was bombed. So, um they were in danger and that was one of the great equalizers of the war that everyone was in it.
>> Yes.
>> The other thing is Churchill had a habit of going up on top of the roof in Whitehall and watching the raids at night as well. I mean, so yeah, yeah.
No, no, I mean, he he exposed himself, but you know, I I always say to people, look at the number of times Hitler nearly was assassinated. You know, the these leaders actually were out in front most of the time making themselves available to their publics.
>> Okay, those are some of the key events from the beginning of the war. Let's zoom out now and focus on some more moments around the world that could have seen Winston Churchill removed.
Okay, welcome back. Now, we have a new map. This is a world map we've got in front of us this time. Now, this is actually from late 1942. So, of course, you'll see America here is blue joined on the Allied side. But, some other areas we're going to talk about in this section, we have Crete and also North Africa.
We have Singapore. We'll be talking a little about Pearl Harbor and of course, Barbarossa as well.
So, let's start. Let's get into 1941, Nigel. How do some of Winston Churchill's actions take us through the year in 1941?
>> Uh in early 1941, Britain has withstood the Blitz and survived the Blitz following on from victory in the Battle of Britain in 1940. So, by the middle of 1941, Britain is blooded but unbowed still.
And then in June 1941, Hitler invades the Soviet Union.
Uh actually, he'd been delayed. He should have invaded five weeks earlier, but thanks to a British organized coup in Yugoslavia which brought a pro-Allied government to power, he had to deal with the Balkans. He then invaded Yugoslavia, invaded Greece, and finally Crete and took them over. So, that very much delayed the invasion Barbarossa, the invasion of the Soviet Union.
Churchill, a lifelong anti-communist who advocated armed intervention against the Russian Revolution, dropped all that in an instant, and famously said, "If Hitler had invaded hell, I would have made a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons." He immediately offered Russia British support, and welcomed Russia as an immensely powerful ally.
>> And indirectly, that kind of takes a little bit of the heat off Winston Churchill after Barbarossa.
>> We weren't alone anymore. We had this hugely powerful ally, de facto ally, not an ideological, but a practical ally in the shape of Stalin's Russia.
>> And then Chris, of course, you also get Pearl Harbor.
>> Yeah, I think it's worth mentioning that of course, ever since he's been Prime Minister, um it's worth remembering also of course that Winston Churchill is half American.
Um he's got a fantastic relationship going with Roosevelt. Roosevelt is very clear-eyed about it. It's America's interest here. But he does not want to have to face Nazi Germany later.
And quite a lot of what the Nazis are saying is, once we sorted out Europe, we're going to have a look at America to see what threat they constitute. So, he knows that he's going to have to take on the Nazis at some stage. So, he wants to keep Britain in the fight. What convinces the Americans that Britain will stay in the fight is when of course, uh the Royal Navy destroys the French fleet at Mers-el-Kébir. And the Americans immediately say, "They mean it." Um and so, then you start to see the start of Lend-Lease. You see 50 destroy old destroyers uh lent to uh the Royal Navy, and the Battle of the Atlantic, which is is pretty vicious in 1941. U-boats are arranging far and near.
Um Just about holding their own, the the allies in that sense. The Americans have started to creating safety zones as they call them and security zones in the North Atlantic. You're seeing engagements between American destroyers and U-boats. So, you can see the the war creeping ever closer. And towards the end of the year, of course, America is putting pressure on Japan um in relation to its policy over China. Um Manchuria in particular. And of course, it culminates in Pearl Harbor in December 1941. And of course, as soon as that happens, um America's in the war, but critically, 5 days later, of course, Germany declares war on the United States. They don't have to.
>> And a mistake that we've covered on History of the Second World War necessarily.
>> And you know, I think that was down to a farside chap by Roosevelt who said, "Look, it's not just Japan we're in the war with, it's Germany." And if you recall from our episode, Goebbels famously said, "You know, great powers don't have war declared on them. So, we're going to declare war on the United States."
And that's what happens. And so, in a trice, um Churchill has got the Americans in against not just Japan, but against Germany, something they've discussed before.
Uh The only problem is um to try and forestall what might happen in the Far East, um Churchill has authorized the dispatch of HMS Prince of Wales, a battleship, um and Repulse, a battlecruiser. They should have gone with an aircraft carrier, but it went aground, so it couldn't go with them.
They go out and shortly after Pearl Harbor, they're both sunk off Malaya.
And this is a real disaster from a PR point of view.
>> How does that go down back home?
>> Not well with a lot of MPs, although the actual danger to Churchill is not hugely great at this particular point, but it's worth bearing in mind that up to this point we had only won defensive victories, i.e. the Battle of Britain and withstanding the Blitz. The only victory that we had was not against Germany, but was against the Italians in North Africa, a battle called Sidi Barrani, in which thousands and thousands of Italians were captured and trooped into captivity, not unwillingly in long lines. But once we came up against the Africa Corps of Rommel, that was a very different and so up to that point, up to well after the middle of the war, Britain had not won a military offensive military victory against Germany.
>> Nigel, I'm going to have to say you we've got the Battle of Cape Matapan, we've sunk the Bismarck, and we've also sunk the Graf Spee, but I was >> I'm I'm I'm talking really about land battles. [laughter] >> Okay, you're quite right.
As a naval man, thank you for reminding me of that.
>> [laughter] >> Before we move into 1942, which is quite a probably the most perilous year for Churchill, just a note on Roosevelt.
That relationship obviously is very strong. Britain still just about has a special relationship with America today.
Is that also key for Churchill's longevity that he is he does sort of hold Roosevelt's ear so well?
>> Yes, but as Chris mentioned, America from Roosevelt down to Trump always puts American interest before anything else, before any sentimental alliance in the old country and English-speaking peoples and all that, which Churchill was very keen on. Roosevelt wasn't so keen. In fact, one of Roosevelt's long-term goals was to abolish the British Empire. He was anti-colonialism. There was a huge amount of anti-English prejudice in America from German minorities, Irish minorities, Italian minorities possibly, and uh Churchill had to win Roosevelt over, perhaps against Roosevelt's own better interests. He met Churchill once when they were both naval ministers in the First World War and they hadn't got on.
They were not personal close friends, but the interests of their two countries were aligned and therefore they saw their alliance.
>> And he had a certain charm.
>> Yeah, yeah, but also we Churchill went across the Atlantic quite a lot by sea or by air to make sure this relationship works throughout. But as we we get into 1942, and we're taking a bit of a beating here in the Far East. Um and uh Churchill is looking at this and he thinks, "I need a vote of confidence."
>> Mhm.
>> But what happens uh after that? He gets the vote of confidence. He engineers it himself and it's something like 475 to 1 in the Commons. So he doesn't he doesn't lose that, but he does that deliberately because all this is kicking off and he thinks he needs that. So that's self-engineered, but then we have a few disasters.
>> We do. Please get into those disasters.
>> The first thing that happens, and this seems to annoy people more than anything else that happens in the early 1942, is the Scharnhorst and Gneisenau, two German battleships or battle cruisers, depending how you categorize them, um and also the Prinz Eugen, a heavy cruiser, do what is known as the Channel Dash from the west of France all the way home to Germany. And the coordination involved in detecting them and attacking them fails spectacularly. And if you look at Chips Channon's diaries, he says, [clears throat] "I I don't know how when the British public have been more angry than when this happened." So that's in February 1942.
The This is then followed by a disastrous campaign in Malaya where the Japanese sweep down the Malay Peninsula and capture Singapore along with over 130,000 Imperial and British troops. So that happens in February. So you're you're actually rocking from this.
In North Africa, uh General Ritchie is defeated by Rommel uh at Gazala and is pushed back to Tobruk. Tobruk falls under the weight of the Luftwaffe Luftwaffe attack to a German army that is half the size of the garrison. And at this time Churchill's talking about it's not just a defeat, it's a disgrace.
We're fed up with this. Meanwhile, in the Far East, we're losing Burma. Um so so And then finally, Tobruk falls itself and Rommel can then uh sweep further on.
Meanwhile, the Battle of the Atlantic's not going that well. At this stage, there's got increased numbers of U-boats. And by July, there is concerted opposition to Churchill and a vote of censure is brought forward.
>> And is one of the reasons it's so politically fraught and dangerous. If you take Singapore as an example, I think Churchill calls it the worst capitulation, the worst defeat in British history.
>> Yes.
>> Away from the war, this is also about the empire, right?
>> It is indeed, and the empire is uh crumbling in the Far East uh and even India, the jewel in the crown of the British Empire, is menaced by the Japanese.
Uh one other disaster we didn't mention in 1942, of course, was the uh something of a dress rehearsal for D-Day, the Dieppe Raid.
>> Oh, yes.
>> An absolute disaster. Uh Stalin, ever since he'd been attacked, was putting on pressure for a second front now, in which he was supported, very surprisingly, perhaps, by one of the main contenders to take over from Churchill, Lord Beaverbrook, the Canadian-born newspaper proprietor, press baron, literally, uh who led a campaign for second front now, a pro-Russian campaign. And Soviet power had never ever been more popular in Britain. There were mass rallies for for second front now. And this was another pressure on Churchill, who knew that we wouldn't be in a position to launch a second front for at least two years.
So, and the D-Day sorry, the Dieppe raid, which was a minor dress rehearsal for Dieppe for for D-Day had gone horribly wrong and resulted in huge mainly Canadian casualties.
>> And in fact in fact there's all through the first six months as well, the Japanese are rampaging in the Indian Ocean with their carrier force.
They've virtually annihilated the the Royal Navy here who've gone basically to Mombasa in Africa to stay out of the way.
So, the first half of '42 is complete disaster. And what makes it worse of course is because as well as being Prime Minister, he is his own Minister of Defense. And everybody says you're autocratic, you're windy, you haven't got the strategy right. And this group comes together and essentially it's people like Hore-Belisha. He had been Minister of War in 1940. Admiral Keyes, who was a hero from the First World War, friend of Churchill in fact, comes together with also Nye Bevan, a fairly trenchant Labour critic as well. And some discontented Tories and they propose a vote of censure in July 1942. And it looks quite serious.
>> Now, so this is the first of a direct challenge on his leadership.
>> Yeah, yeah.
What rather undermines it is Roger Keyes gets up and says well actually you'd be a bit of a disaster if we get rid of Churchill because there's nobody else.
The house votes I think that it's 475 to 25 to keep him in post.
>> Yeah.
>> So, it has the effect of reinforcing him.
>> And one of the MPs who put forward the motion made an absolute fool of himself by proposing as the new commander of the British Army the younger brother of the king, who was an absolute shall we say he makes Prince Harry look like an intellectual.
>> Well, let's have that conversation then.
If we in 1940 [clears throat] in 1940 if we assume rightly or wrongly Halifax is probably the most obvious choice. In '42 who yeah, come on. Who we who who is there then?
>> candidates, but none of them uh have anything [clears throat] like >> You need to hear what Nigel was going to say. It was the Duke of Gloucester that they were proposing >> Yes, Henry the Duke of Gloucester whose favorite hobby was flicking pats of butter to see if they would stick on the ceiling. And this was the man who was proposed as the new commander of the British Army.
>> Anything to pass the time. That's right.
Uh so that rather destroyed it along with Keys saying, "Well, actually we haven't got a choice now."
>> Exactly.
>> So rather reinforced his position. That was the key point.
>> more likely I think to remove Churchill was the Grim Reaper himself because he was not a well man. He was in his mid-60s. He suffered during the war three bouts of pneumonia which is a serious disease at any stage, but particularly known as the old man's friend because it carried so many old men off. And um >> Well, that suggests it's a young man's friend >> No, [laughter] but what I mean is people suffering from a a serious disease would be killed by pneumonia. Uh but he also while he was on one of his um bridge building visits to Washington >> Yes.
>> had a heart attack >> in '41?
>> '41.
>> '41.
>> While he was trying to close a window in the White House. Uh Churchill was a lifelong heavy drinker, smoked cigars as we know, smoked like a chimney, drank like a fish. He he was a stranger to the gym, took next to no exercise, was small, fat, and corpulent.
>> And he says nice things about you though.
>> Indeed.
>> [laughter] >> I like that he lived. I'm surprised he could have done.
>> had an iron constitution and he lived to be 90 years old.
>> Okay, we'll bring this uh And interestingly, you know, some assassination attempts as well. Um quite extraordinary. I mean uh the Germans actually tried to insert some poison chocolate into the war the war cabinet rooms at one stage. Um Churchill himself returning from America was nearly shot down by six Hurricanes, but they couldn't find the target. So, but came very close to it. There's also a very strange story in 1942 of essentially a civilian airliner that left Portugal was coming to Britain and it grew up after the war that the Luftwaffe thought that Churchill was on board and they mistook, believe it or not, the agent of the actor Leslie Howard as being Churchill cuz apparently smoked cigars, he wore a homburg, and dressed and looked like him.
>> And essentially it was intercepted by eight Junkers 88 long-range fighters and they the aircraft had previously avoided these and they they were quite confident they could outmaneuver them, but on this occasion it was shot down.
Now, for a long time after the war it was thought to be a very clever German attempt to actually kill Churchill, rather like you'd see in a novel, but rather like The Eagle Has Landed in fact. But it didn't really happen.
I think they may have been targeting Leslie Howard because he he this is the guy who was >> Why why would they be targeting him?
>> Because he was a major part of our propaganda campaign in the Iberian Peninsula to keep Franco out. He was Ashley Wilkes in Gone with the Wind, of course. Everybody remembers that and he was a passenger on the this airliner.
The only other time that Churchill came close to being killed in '42 is he was departing in a um flying boat from Virginia and a crazed American tried to shoot him and the Secret Service, in fact, I remember the name of the guy, his name was Mike Riley, actually stopped him being killed. So, there was an attempt there.
>> So, that yeah, that was out of nowhere.
>> Yeah, yeah.
>> So, then if we'll bring this section to a close, politically then, after that sort of vote of censure in 1942, is that kind of the last moment that it was >> Oh, yeah. Because because towards the end of the year, of course, you get the victory of El Alamein.
>> Yep.
>> Uh you get Operation Torch landing in uh North Africa. Uh and he survives. And in fact, in his memoirs, Churchill actually says, you know, if I'd gone in '42, people would have seen me as a real duffer, and everybody else would have got the credit. In other words, uh and he recognizes '42 as being the hinge.
Uh and yeah, but certainly with the victory at El Alamein, which cancels out the victory by Rommel at Gazala earlier in the year, and everything then starts to go right because Barbarossa, of course, swings around uh to the the the Russians actually then taking the initiative. And you have Stalingrad. You have all sorts of things happen. Uh and let let's face it, out in the Pacific, you've had Midway, you've had Guadalcanal.
The allies are on the offensive everywhere at that point. Uh and we're part of that.
>> Okay, hold that thought because how Churchill and his legacy is viewed is going to become a key point of our counterfactuals because that is the real history of Winston Churchill's wartime career. Now, let's undo all of that.
This is History Undone.
Okay, time to get into what we love doing here on History Undone and ask ourselves some really long-term questions had Winston Churchill not lasted throughout the war. I'm going to come to you first, Nigel, because we've talked about Lord Halifax a lot. We've talked about them perhaps not being many other suitors say in 1942 if Churchill falls then.
But you do say there are people with leadership ambitions at the time.
>> There are, and there were some there were obvious candidates and not-so-obvious candidates. The heir apparent to Churchill, who was recognized by Churchill as being the man who would step up into his shoes if anything should happen to him, as they say, was Anthony Eden, the young, glamorous Tory politician, a record in World War I. He'd resigned from the government in 1937 over disagreeing with the appeasement, basically, and stood at Churchill's side. He had his own group of followers known as the glamour boys, cuz he himself was a tall, handsome, glamour boy himself, but known derisively by Chamberlain as the glamour boys. He had his own group, so he was an anti-appeaser, likely rival of Churchill in 1940. He was in the government, Churchill brought him into the government as soon as he became Prime Minister. So, he was probably the most obvious candidate. Then, as I've mentioned, there was Lord Beaverbrook, the Canadian-born press lord, who very much in favor of the alliance with Russia. He'd done a sterling job as Minister of Aircraft Production, got housewives to give their saucepans to be converted into Spitfires, although that didn't really very much happen in reality. And then we have a left-wing contender for the post, Sir Stafford Cripps, rather like Tony Benn, a well-born, upper-class, extreme left socialist. And Churchill, as was his wont, got rid of him by sending him to be ambassador to Stalin's Russia.
Uh So, did Did Churchill again know that he was a Churchill actually quite liked Stafford Cripps, although he did make fun of him. He famously said, "There, but for the grace of God, goes God." He didn't like his socialism. He thought he was a bit of a hypocrite because Stafford Cripps was a teetotal vegetarian, high-living, uh plain-thinking man.
And Stalin Pretty unusual for the time.
Sta- Sta- Certainly not welcome not welcome at Churchill's dining table. And he Churchill and Stalin, when they met, had a good giggle about the British ambassador, Stafford Cripps, who was a teetotaler and as I say, high-minded socialist. and this was all a big laugh.
So, he was another possible uh candidate for the leadership. He was very popular uh at home among left-wing and progressive uh sides of the political equation. And finally, uh possibly the leader of the Labour Party and the de facto Deputy Prime Minister, Clement Attlee, who basically ran the war domestically while Churchill was gallivanting around the world winning the war internationally.
>> And we'll come back to him cuz he of course becomes Prime Minister in 1945.
>> thing about Attlee is Churchill lets it be known that he's not up to it, he thinks. He He actually says his abilities are not equal to this position. It doesn't warrant it. He also says that he His contribution to the fighting is nothing.
Um so, he has a very low opinion of Attlee's ability to take over.
>> car [clears throat] draws up outside Downing Street and Mr. Attlee gets out.
He doesn't listen to that. Although, he did respect Attlee for his fine war record in the First World War.
>> Exactly. So, what what does he have him around for?
>> Well, well, well, because he needs the he needs the Labour Party on side.
And it's quite significant that when he gets rid of um Arthur Greenwood from from the the cabinet, he he specifically >> Yeah, well, for for being useless as well.
Uh He He actually And they've been trying to get rid of him for a long time.
That's when he says you're Deputy Prime Minister.
>> It's never authorized by the king. It's an unofficial post, but it boosts basically the support from the Labour Party and and of course Bevin as well, who's the other very powerful Bevin powerful figure in the government at this stage. There's one other possibility that started in 1940 uh that was put together by Sir John Colville uh and also by the king to bring Jan Smuts, the Boer general, uh and basically found a member of the League of Nations, international Commonwealth statesman, to bring him in on top to take over if Churchill actually disappears in a flash. And everybody forgets about this. And Smuts, of course, a very capable performer.
>> Yeah, so he wouldn't have been from the more appeasement camp of Halifax.
>> No, but it's greatly ironic. A man who made his name fighting against the British Empire in the Boer War should by the Second World War would be regarded as an uber loyal supporter of the British Empire.
>> it's even closer than that. He was the district commander where Churchill was captured during the Boer War. It's quite quite extraordinary. Yeah.
>> But just getting back to Attlee, I think we should remember that Attlee, both Attlee and Ernest Bevin, the thing against them succeeding is they were fanatically loyal to Churchill. They were loyal cabinet colleagues to him. They never plotted against him. The plots against Churchill came from the Tory party and outside the cabinet. They didn't come from Labour.
>> The other thing I think, Fergus, worth mentioning is is that the country actually is trending towards Labour during the war. Everybody's surprised by the 1945 election. But if you look at the by-elections during the war, there's one at Maldon in Essex, famously, which has always been Tory. Yeah, and Tom Driberg is elected there. So, all the time Labour are building their position within this coalition domestically. That's the key point. And as you say, Cripps himself, who's so far left that even the Labour party expelled him, it's building throughout the war.
>> I embrace that, the perils of incumbency. Say in our scenario, if you do get Cripps becoming a wartime leader at some point, do you then still get the Attlee 1945 government and period of regeneration?
>> No, definitely. You don't know that.
>> With Cripps?
>> But but but you you would you would get, I think, a a Labour government.
>> You trust the British electorate but to not to change leader?
>> No, because it it it it was trending that way anyway, I think throughout the war. And I'm always surprised when people say, and I think Nigel, you and I agree on this, that the vote in '45 was not against Churchill, it was against the Conservative Party.
>> And and for Labour, you know, they were Labour were getting to be very popular. There was a feeling that the country needed to change from the high unemployment, the misery of the 1930s, and Labour was the party to do it. And the tired old Tories, there hadn't been an election since 1935 by 1945, for 10 years, and that is a very long time.
>> Okay, I'm going to take us back to 1940 and some of those counterfactuals you posited at the start, whether Churchill dies in the Blitz [clears throat] or perhaps whether his plane is shot down by the Germans on the way to France.
I might be being naive, but I find it hard to imagine if Churchill was killed in that way, that you got a Britain would then want to go more to a policy of appeasement.
We'd want to fight on, would we not? If our if our leader had been killed by the enemy?
>> Depends when it happens. If if he's killed if he's shot down going back and forth to France, you're almost certainly going to see either a return of Chamberlain at that point, despite what the Labour Party think, because the majority is huge, the Conservative majority is huge in the House of Commons at that point, or you're going to see Halifax coming in because it for want of anybody better at that point. That's the key thing. And I would have >> And he'd still sue for peace in the making that.
>> I think Chamberlain would have carried on. Yeah, because I think the scales fell from Chamberlain's eyes. When he comes back from Munich, and he actually says, "Look, Hitler, he's not like us." He suddenly realizes he's not the guy. And I think, you know, you get fooled once, you don't get fooled twice. So, if Chamberlain had taken over, I think you would have continued the fight, but of course he dies towards the end of the year. So, so you're then back in that with that problem again. I mean, I think my my own view, I think I don't know what you think, Nigel, is people like Beaverbrook would have started to assert themselves then and said, "Look, you know, I understand what's going on. We've got war production. We've won the Battle of Britain. It's my production that's done that." And I think the momentum would have been with Beaverbrook and also Churchill's little inner circle.
>> Yes.
>> And I think there would have been momentum to continue. But again, Beaverbrook's in the Lords. Who do you actually run the country?
>> I'm not at all sure that Beaverbrook would have fought on. He Don't forget he was a strong appeaser. The Daily Express came out with the headline, "There will be no war" at the beginning of 1939.
Uh and uh as we know, he wasn't really uh an ideological supporter of Churchill. He was a sort of opportunist, I would say, which is why he supported Soviet Russia when when uh they came into the war. And so um >> So, but if you have Chamberlain continuing, the momentum through the Battle of Britain, you've had Beaverbrook as head of production and things like that. By that stage, you're pretty much in it and the momentum is going forward. My question would be is who comes in if you've got Beaverbrook who can't operate from the Lords, who comes in at that point? That That's the issue.
>> Only Eden, I think. Eden is the only possibility.
>> And if we do continue with Chamberlain or someone else, I mean, they're going to also operate uh Britain's role in the war in a totally different way to Churchill.
>> Well, yeah, your relationship with America is not the same. That's the first thing. So, do the Americans draw back a bit and say, "Well, actually, it's not our fight." You've got Joseph Joseph Kennedy uh as the ambassador saying that they're not going to win. Uh don't bother supporting them. Roosevelt, of course, you know, has a an election.
So, so he's he's in that space at the moment. He's got to think about that.
Um my sense is that the Americans would have been focused on the Pacific and China at that point.
Not Japan per se, but what's going on in China, Manchuria, the open China policy, extending their reach obviously over the Philippines and things like that.
All their war plans envisage the Pacific was going to be their primary theater.
And I just wonder if they leave us to it at this point if you've got anybody other than Churchill.
>> You in agreement?
>> yes, and I think this gives impetus to the central point that we were discussing. How [snorts] much actually depended on the personality of Winston Churchill. The fact that this war leader and had he been removed from the scene either by accident, by death, whatever, or by a vote of no confidence, the whole picture would have absolutely changed and the outcome of the war before 1941 would have been different, I think I think >> I think I think the other thing Fergus is you've got to look at the eloquence and the sheer energy that Churchill puts into the relationship with the Americans. He bypasses Halifax.
>> Yes.
>> Halifax is virtually a nonentity in Washington. So he has to generate all this all this >> it from a long time before they enter the war as well, right?
>> Indeed, but during the war he keeps cultivating this relationship. Keeps sending telegrams, keeps on the case.
And you can see in the as I said the eloquence of the language, how he appeals to Roosevelt. So without that personality there, you're thinking how do the >> Prize Dust Foreign Office Dominion Office and the Colonial Office actually deal with this?
>> He walks around the White House in the nude and says to says to Roosevelt, the Prime Minister of Britain has got nothing to hide from the President of the United States. He does these sort of things. It is very much dependent on his eccentric and attractive personality.
>> performance politics.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> So without without Churchill, no special relationship at all?
>> Uh, I I worry about America's entry into the war to tell the truth if that relationship isn't in place. Remember, he's already negotiated before Pearl Harbor that if America enters the war, it will be Germany first.
>> Yeah.
>> They've already negotiated that and the Atlantic treaty is taken place taken place at this stage. Roosevelt as as I hinted earlier, thinks he's going to have to go to war with Germany eventually, but when you've got Japan in the Pacific >> And they they were the >> physically attacked America in Pearl Harbor.
>> Is there is there a tool scenario where if Churchill is assassinated or indirectly assassinated in the blitz?
>> Yeah.
>> Then America actually comes on side much earlier. So we've seen that we've seen no?
>> No.
>> No, I think at this point Joseph Kennedy on the megaphone says, it's all over for us.
I remember Churchill made the decision about Mers-el-Kébir.
>> Mhm.
>> Attacking the French fleet. And even the Royal Navy said, we're not easy with this. It's not something we want to do.
And so Admiral Somerville said it's the worst thing I've ever had to do in the war.
And and so that sort of ruthless decision is made by Churchill alone.
Nobody else makes that decision. So he needs to be there for that. And you look at He is the man of the hour, you know, at any other time he might have not have been the right person, but he is at this point. And he drags the Americans across what what people underestimate, I think, is the extent to which the Americans were actually involved in the Battle of the Atlantic in 1940.
So you've actually, as I said, got them creating these security zones. They actually say to U-boats, within this zone, if you attack any ship, we're going to attack you.
And Raeder, the head of the German Navy, says this isn't fair.
It really doesn't work. And of course, the German Navy, when Germany declares war on America, is yippee, send the U-boats to the to the East Coast.
They're off.
Operation Drumbeat.
>> Does it Is this obviously the The counterfactual? Does it fundamentally change the outcome of the war if uh if you lose Churchill? And depending on when.
>> I think I I think it does if he went quite early on, not if he went later than 1941.
>> So 42 is still >> Yeah. Yeah, I think I think once America well, maybe once Russia was in, but once America was in the war, it was just a question of time.
>> Where it does alter is the post-war settlement.
>> Uh-huh.
>> Because I think it at this point, whoever succeeds Churchill, I would say doesn't go to Tehran.
He doesn't go to Yalta. He probably doesn't go to Potsdam cuz you don't count.
>> No.
>> Because >> You don't have that.
>> Between America and the Soviet Union, we're running this.
>> Yeah.
>> And so that's where it makes a difference, I think, is that Churchill is very careful to impose himself into these conferences and say, "We count."
So if you take it all the way through, that probably would have meant that Britain wouldn't be a permanent member of the Security Council now.
>> Wow, even this today?
>> One caveat against that is that it wasn't just Britain, it was the British Empire. So we're talking about India, Canada, South Africa, New Zealand, and Australia, and uh certain Caribbean countries as well. So it wasn't just little England, it was Great Britain and the British Empire.
>> But without Churchill's desire to maintain the empire, so you're looking at 44, 45, he insists insists on sending the British Pacific Fleet out there to help the Americans.
In a little way. I mean, the Americans [laughter] way way outnumbered and outclassed us, but the fact of life is he needed that fingerprint on the ground to make sure that we had an interest, a seat at the table, and that the the Americans and the Soviets weren't going to say, "This is how we're going to run the world after this." So staying in the game is quite important. But even by Yalta, even Churchill himself is starting to be sidelined by You look at the body language in some of the pictures by Stalin and by Roosevelt.
>> Mhm.
Um so, just on personally for Winston Churchill, it will change our kind of image of him whether he was taken out politically or whether he was killed during the war. But obviously, we're talking kind of up to 1942 mostly in this conversation. Even if he's killed pre-1942, does that change our image of him? Cuz he hasn't had any of his his successes.
Does he become a forgotten man of >> I don't think so. I I I I think the fact that his speeches kept Britain going in 1940 is what we primarily remember him now. And I think we would have primarily In fact, death would have probably lent a certain martyrdom.
>> But do you need what comes after that to make those speeches important or >> No, we would I mean, Churchill was a very diminished figure when he came back to power in 1951. You know, he was having strokes. He was an old man nearing 80 years old. I think his golden hour, his his hour of fame and glory would have still resonated in history whether he'd died or whether he'd lived.
In certain sense, the the post-war years were sad because he was an old dying man.
>> it was a very long death, you know, he he survived until 1965 for another 20 years after the war. But I think his his hour of destiny was 1940.
>> Bizarrely, >> a lot of people >> bizarrely, there was somebody else who was very eloquent who was standing in the wings in 1940. And people were talking about him coming back. And that was David Lloyd George.
>> Oh.
>> In the First World War.
>> Indeed.
>> Uh and he's the forgotten man of this time because at the time his rhetoric is soaring at this stage. And he thinks he's in with a chance of actually making a comeback. So, we might have got somebody else with similar He didn't have a chance politically cuz obviously he's not a conservative at that stage. but he was knocking on the door in 1940.
>> Unlike his successful running power in in the First World War, Lloyd George was an appeaser. He'd gone and sucked up to Hitler and begged his pardon. He actually thought we were going to lose the war up to quite a late stage, and he was an old man as well. He was older than He was a decade older than Churchill. He died in the last year of the war. So, he did have a moment of glory in the famous Norway debate which brought Chamberlain down. He made his speech against the government cuz he absolutely hated Chamberlain, called him a pinhead, and said he'd make a a good Lord Mayor of Birmingham in a very mediocre year.
>> But, I think the other important thing about Churchill is, of course, his role as a writer.
>> Yeah.
>> So, quite a lot of the history that we're talking about here, Churchill famously said, you know, I will be remembered by history cuz I intend to write it.
He has this soaring Nobel laureate-winning way of writing, not just about the war, but also his previous life, but the history of the English-speaking peoples.
So, his imprint basically, which was sort of started here, continued after the war on the back of this reputation here. So, had he gone in 1940, for example, even 1942, you probably wouldn't have had that sort of eminence in terms of writing. He'd have written, but I don't think you'd have had that elevated >> I've got one more Yeah, little counterfactual to throw out for you. If he goes in 1940, Britain, of course, still has the Royal Navy and the RAF, but without Churchill, did the Germans maybe think Operation Sealion might be more of a goer?
>> No.
No, no. I mean, the the German Navy is saying throughout, "Look, we'll go through the motions, but we don't want to do this."
And the the army is saying, "It's only a river crossing." And the the navy is saying, "20-mi wide river crossing?
Yeah, right." Um but, you know, after Norway, the German navy is not in a fit state to protect a a transit across the channel. The Luftwaffe has a go, of course, in the Battle of Britain. That doesn't work. Um Hitler's never really a fan of this.
He never is. Uh he he >> himself a coward on a hero on the land and a coward at sea, didn't he?
>> And was and always seasick when he went to sea. Uh he purposely never went on the water. So, so he he he didn't like the idea, but it kept the Kriegsmarine occupied as they were rebuilding. Very significant, he put Admiral Lütjens, his best admiral, in operational admiral in charge of that, but I don't think ever considered that they were going to do it. That was the point. It was we're putting pressure on Britain. I mean, that's the point.
>> thought from both of you. Are we saying in all of these counterfactuals, we've been through so many in this episode, Germany is still Germany still lose the war ultimately?
>> Uh well, depends. Um once Barbarossa starts, um and Barbarossa is held, then I think you're losing the war at that point. In fact, Churchill said that, didn't he? He said, "If Moscow falls, we've got a problem. If it doesn't, we're okay." And certainly after Pearl Harbor, uh and I think Churchill himself said, "You know what?
After I heard about Pearl Harbor, I went to bed >> And slept well.
>> and slept the sleep of the just. Yeah, absolutely. And so, I think those two turning points uh really really ends >> I mean, the danger to Britain is still there. I mean, we mustn't forget that the Germans could have actually said, "You know what?
We'll we'll hold in the east, and we'll finish off Britain." And they could have done, actually, before the Americans built up.
>> Absolutely fascinating. So many counterfactuals there, like I say. Um so, what happens if Churchill fell during the war? It really really depends on exactly when he fell. If it was in 1940, for example, does Britain sue for peace, like we've covered before, does it fight on under a new leader? Almost certainly, that relationship with America without Churchill doesn't develop. Are Britain [music] even in the UN Security Council today? Do America pursue a Pacific first strategy? And what happens with Barbarossa?
I'm afraid [music] that is all we've got time for today. My thanks to Rear Admiral Dr. Chris Parry and Nigel Jones for joining me. We'll be back undoing more history very soon. Remember to like this video [music] and subscribe to our channel on YouTube. And you can also listen and follow the show as a podcast.
Just search for History UnDone in your podcast apps, and we'll see you next time. [music] Goodbye.
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