TWO Tracks. Both BAD.

[00:00:00]Hey there friends. Back at you with the afternoon or evening update whenever you're watching the video from. I'm actually recording at 5:30 p.m. East Coast Monday afternoon, July the 20th, right here in the cold rain bunker.

[00:00:11]Ditched the business shirt threw on the hat and we're off to the races for round two today. Got to give you the latest on the tropical cyclone. People don't like it when I use the term tropical cyclone, but it is a tropical cyclone. It's a depression. It's number two. It's still not Bertha yet, nor was it this morning, of course. That's why it's not yet Bertha. But, uh, relax people. Relax.

[00:00:33]It's coming. We're 4 miles per hour away from having our second name storm of the season. We're at 35 sustained miles hour right now. I said that backwards, but you get the point. And we need four more to go. And we will be at the minimum of 39 miles hour for a tropical storm. And it will be Bertha when it happens. And you can see right here on the visible loop that I could not show you this morning, we have a circulation that is just sitting here and you can see it all the way from the top of the atmosphere down. That is not really an eye. It is a circulation and it is devoid of something that tropical cyclones need of all types. That's why I say cyclone so I don't have to say depression and wave and storm and hurricane. It is a tropical cyclone. A cyclone is a low pressure zone and that's what we have on our hands. And it is devoid of convection. If you said convection, you win the prize. Convection is thunderstorms. And the core of a tropical cyclone needs thunderstorms are wrapping around it in order to proceed to the next level. And it is not proceeding to the next level all that fast. Here is the infrared loop generally showing you what the where the thunderstorms are. And you can see the brighter red tops indicative of cold clouds way up in the atmosphere. That's high clouds. That means there's thunderstorms going off. and really lifting that air. And that's why you see those red colors bubbling up. There's the circulation. Florida, you're seeing some thunderstorms around this thing.

[00:01:59]But, uh, very healthy circulation at the surface, but not really healthy in terms of its wanting to get into tropical storm strength. One more thing I want to show you while we're on this, the mid-level water vapor loop looks like a little bit more uh moist air around the core. So that could be indicating to us that we'll see some gradual development continue now that the dry air is sort of mixed out. We have plenty of dry air here here off the continent down in Cuba. That's not a story. But what's coming off the continent may continue to interfere with this as will shear. I showed you the shear map earlier today.

[00:02:33]I'm not going to do it again for redundancy. But the shear is going to pick up as we get on through the week as this thing tracks to the north and to the northwest. Here is the actual official forecast track right here.

[00:02:45]tropical depression. It's expected to become a storm tonight, acquire the name Bertha, and continue to move to the northwest by 200 p.m. tomorrow afternoon. It has moved a whole oh, I don't know what is that about a 100 miles. It's not moving very fast at all.

[00:03:00]The steering is very, very weak. Then it's expected to take a turn to the west. And if it stays on a westerly track and stays weak, then we will see the influence be less and less from the ridge that's building in from the western portion of the country and allow this thing to continue on a westward track instead of bending back to the southwest. And that could be important in terms of where this thing ultimately goes and how strong it gets to what happens later in the southeast. I'm going to show you some interesting things. Not just the hurricane or the hurricane. See, that's why I say cyclone because I'm going to call it the wrong thing. Not just the tropical depression or tropical storm in terms of how strong it gets and where it goes, but that's going to play a role and a big role.

[00:03:40]It's really going to blow your mind when you see this of what happens in the parts of the southeast later on. We're also going to take a look at some of the severe weather that's out there today because I told you earlier we had a severe weather threat and yet it's unfolding now. We're seeing some tornado warnings, severe thunderstorm warnings, and the uh special the storm prediction center. I don't know where special came from. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the tornado risk and we're going to take a look at that as well and then get you out of here. But if you're new, haven't subscribed, I'm Jason, meteorologist for the channel. Glad you're here. Make sure you subscribe.

[00:04:10]Join us here and we do a video every single day. But uh as you can see as we get on out here toward July the 22nd.

[00:04:17]Today's the 20th. So the 22nd would be Wednesday at 2 p.m. It's going to be heading in toward the mouth of the Mississippi and then approach What is this? This is Homa. Okay, I said that wrong the other day and I will admit when I make a mistake it said Huma. It's not Huma, it's Homa. Thank you for letting me know that. Okay, all of you that did and many of you did. So, I want to make sure that uh I'm saying this correctly. There's Nollins and there's Homa. All right, so this is going to go right through there according to the latest National Hurricane Center track.

[00:04:46]Get on in toward Galveastston, south of Houston, and die off a very quick death as a weak tropical depression. That is the forecast track. We've got tropical storm watches up from Appalachiccola all the way through the mouth of the Mississippi. People say we don't talk about Gulfport. Gulfport here. You have a tropical storm watch. These could be upgraded. Mobile here as well down to the south and then toward Panama City and of course Pensacola too. Somebody said I didn't say Pensacola and I know that I said that earlier today. So there you have it. That's the latest on that.

[00:05:17]There is the National Hurricane Center official page and you can see two is the only game in town. There's only one of two. And there it is. And nothing else is going on out here in the Atlantic as you can clearly see. Now, we had yellow on this before. What is yellow? Well, yellow is the first stage of hurricane of a storm getting to hurricane strength. And we had one member going all the way up off the board. Now, they took it away because there's no more members going to hurricane strength anymore. But uh quite a few members uh quite a few hurricane models take this to tropical storm strength over the next 24 to 60 hours before weakening it as shear really begins to kick some bouty out here in the Gulf. All right, that's what's going to happen and probably some dry air as well. What a tale of 12 hours. Look, the European ensemble mean look at this thing. 1,05 millibars takes it all the way to 1,05 millibars in 48 hours and 72 takes it all the way to 1,0 millibars. Hey buddy, you're going the wrong way if you're trying to be a become a tropical storm and that is not not going to be uh get get the job done.

[00:06:27]Some of the other ensemble that's the mean the ensemble members kind of vary.

[00:06:30]Some take it up into the southeast. Now most ensemble members had this thing going this way, right? All earlier today, if you go back and look at the video, I showed this and a lot of them had it south of Louisiana and strengthening and now much of them kill this thing off pretty quickly with all the shear about and uh knock it down and really don't take it farther to the west. Steering currents just take it right on in toward Louisiana and um in here to Mississippi and Alabama. But the hurricane models still continue to move this on to the west. And so that is the official position of the National Hurricane Center. The European ensembles have flip-flopped with the GFS ensembles which actually from 48 hours ago they've completely almost flipped positions. So this is just um very interesting to say the least that we're still in 2026 and have no better idea of how to build models. But uh that's just how it goes.

[00:07:21]Tropics are complicated. The atmosphere is complicated. If we take a look at the worst case windfall map or I keep calling it the windfall map, rainfall maps is what we show and I'm going to show that in a minute. the wind gust map. This is a gust map and this is the rapid refresh. And again, just like I told you this morning, rapid refresh and the HRR and the NAM, they are not hurricane models. They are short range models designed to param their parameters parameterization is over land. Okay? They are they do their best work over land, but there are some other models that still have this thing kind of spinning up in the Gulf a little bit.

[00:07:57]And I want to show you this just so you can be prepared. Always be prepared for the worst case scenario. When it doesn't happen, you're good to go. All right, but the winds could get quite gusty if this plays out. We're talking about this afternoon and evening and as we head in toward tomorrow morning at 10, 11, 12:00 tomorrow. This thing is still south of the Florida panhandle here um and um continuing to head over toward the mouth of the Mississippi. You can see the spin there. We're gusting into the 20s around the coast of Florida up here toward Mobile. 30s, 20 gusting to 20 in New Orleans. And that continues and you start to get some of these yellows up here. We really talking about 40s, 50s, and even potentially 60s if these yellows can make it into the to um to land. And you see really just scraping the coast getting into the mouth of Mississippi. And then the center of circulation remains to the south. And you say, well, hey, all the big heavy rain, the big effects are going to be on the northern side of these things, right? That's how it works. Well, in this case, this is a very lopsided system and all of the convection is down to the south. So, even if this track were to verify, we're still not looking at a ton of rain making it that far.

[00:09:02]We'd need to see the track actually bump up here and get north of New Orleans and actually head through Mobile, north of Gulfport to really start to get the big big big rains into the southern Gulf here. And so, kind of see how the rapid refresh does. My guess is this is too strong and we'll probably see some gusts into the 20s and 30s around the Gulf Coast areas into the mouth of Mississippi, the Delta region, back over to Homa. But I doubt we're going to see anything into the 50s or 60. Maybe an occasional gust in the 40s. That's the way it looks. Now, that could change and that's why we look at the data every day. I look at it every single day. And I'm going to show it to you every single day. All right. So, we're going to take a look in here and kind of switch gears a bit. Take a look at precipitation. And I'm going to zoom this out. As a matter of fact, let me let me do it this way.

[00:09:43]I'm going to pop over to another display here and reenter the page. And there it is. And we we see a couple of things here. I'm going to just slide it slide it to the to the west just a little bit.

[00:09:53]All right, so today excessive rainfall, slight risk out here in the desert southwest. Monsunal flows in high gear.

[00:09:59]Torrential downpours two maybe two and a half inches per hour with some of these thunderstorms out here. Not much going on, just some showers and some thunderstorms generally speaking around the Gulf Coast areas. And back over into North Carolina, we're seeing a cluster of thunderstorms develop here along a stalled frontal boundary and that will continue to drop heavy rain. So we could see pockets of street flooding. We've already seen some of that out here and not so much out here in the Midwest, but we do have a severe weather threat which we'll look at in a minute. Now, tomorrow as that short wave that's plaguing the Midwest today moves over into the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, look for a flooding threat potentially on an isolated basis to pick up from New York, southern Pennsylvania, back into eastern Kentucky, northern Tennessee, northern North Carolina, and all of Virginia and the Delm Marva region. And then continuing to see a flood threat out here in the southwest as monsunal flow continues. And that will continue out there as we get into Wednesday. And then we start to see, you can't really, it's hard to tell down here. I'll zoom in in a second, but there is that frontal boundary continuing to be stalled across parts of the upper southeast, lower Mid-Atlantic. And so, a flood threat continues there with a slight risk of excessive rainfall. And then here comes our tropical storm by the time we get into Wednesday. And we're looking at an increase in rainfall over southern Louisiana to be sure. All right. Now, watch this. I'm going to take this and turn this into a rainfall prognostication.

[00:11:18]Look at this. Over the next 5 days.

[00:11:20]Whamo. What in the world? Great googly moogly. Look at all of this rain from the Delm Marva back into Columbia, South Carolina. We're talking. You can see the See if I can maybe get this on a different display and so show you the whole legend here. So you can see it across the top. Look at this. Three, four, five, five inches of rain. Seven inches of rain over the next five days out here in eastern North Carolina. Why is that the case? Well, not as much along the Gulf Coast. We're looking at maybe two and three inches here. This has kind of crept up just a little bit.

[00:11:48]So, down here toward uh Homa, looking at about an inch and a half all the way up over to Appalachiccola, that purple is about an inch and a half somewhere in there. Okay. So, we could see more than that if the track bumps up. Not a lot of real estate between an inch, half an inch to an inch to three and four inches. So, it gets up pretty quickly if that thing were to just change a little bit. So, we're going to look at that in a minute. I'm going to show you why over here in the southeast or over there in the southeast depending on how this is set up on your screen going to see more rain maybe uh across parts of the southeast. All right, so depending on what the hurricane or called it a hurricane again, the the tropical depression does. All right, here it is down here in the Gulf today. All right, this is the GFS operational model which had nothing a couple of days ago. Watch what it does. Watch this. Just watch.

[00:12:38]Watch how it goes here. Get into tomorrow evening, overnight tomorrow night. Wake up Wednesday morning. It's getting ready to come right up on in here toward the mouth of the Mississippi. It takes a hard left turn, big left hook, and goes right down through Louisiana and then hugs the shoreline, goes into Galveston, dissipates. All right, look at this though. As it does that, is there a connection between this tropical moisture? Wowzer, what in the world?

[00:13:07]We're not doing soundings. Why did my pen not grab? Come here. There we go.

[00:13:10]Look at the tropical moisture here and the moisture associated with that short wave that's working through the Mid-Atlantic. And there's our stalled frontal boundary. Watch those areas. All right. Watch those areas. All right.

[00:13:21]Here we go. Thursday, Friday, not much.

[00:13:25]That front just pushes on south and what happens? Just sort of dries us out. We get another little wave coming in toward the weekend and not much going on. All right. Now, let's just keep that there and take a look. Let me go back. Let's take a look at the European. All right, here's the European. Let's go back.

[00:13:41]There's There's our storm down here in the tropics. See that? Got your eyes on it? Nothing going on up here. As we get on in toward Tuesday afternoon and evening, here comes frontal boundary wave coming out of the Mid-Atlantic, bringing you some severe weather tomorrow. That's going to drop on into the upper southeast. And look at this low pressure sitting here. It what does it do? It just dissipates and comes on in toward the uh southern Gulf Coast and just sort of dies on the vine here. But look what happens to all the moisture.

[00:14:10]You've got a connection now sending this tropical moisture up into the southeast and that is a funnel. The the Canadian is on the European side with this thing.

[00:14:20]Both of them kill this thing off and doesn't neither gets it west back over into Texas. They both bring that tropical moisture, a lot of it inland into the parts of the southeast here.

[00:14:30]All right, so that's what the Canadians doing, the Europeans doing it. The GFS, the Icon are not doing that at all. So what in the world, where does that leave us? Well, it leaves us with two options on the table, and it all depends on the strength of the storm. Does it get strong enough to be steered by the mid-level ridge coming in or does it not? And that is the question. We're have to watch and see how it plays out over the next 24 hours. Look at that.

[00:14:52]Just rains and rains and rains. the European raining through Friday, eastern North Carolina, South Carolina, all through the southeast as that tropical moisture gets integrated in and that frontal boundary has just stalled there.

[00:15:04]And boy, it just continues through the weekend. So, we're going to pick up some big time rain amounts. European showing over a foot of rain in parts of eastern North Carolina, parts of South Carolina and Virginia with this thing. Uh but um you know, in spots, not the whole entire area, but in spots. And certainly that's something that we have to pay attention to is a solution that is on the table.

[00:15:22]If the storm system does what the GFS does and strengthens and actually goes beneath Louisiana like you see here by Wednesday evening, you see this ridge building in over top that clockwise flow around that ridge. What does it do?

[00:15:35]Sends it on down just like that. Look at that. And there it goes into Texas. Now that's what happens. That is an upper level representation of the surface low.

[00:15:44]It's over top. It's out here in the mid- levels. The surface low is actually a little bit farther north than that and upper low is one reason we're getting some shear out here. But if the GFS solution is right, not going to be a lot of rain in the southeast. If the European solution is right and this thing actually does not get west like the hurricane center is showing, boy, we could have some tropical moisture really feeding into the southeast and bumping up some big-time precipitation amounts.

[00:16:06]All right, so now we're going to take a look at the alerts that are around the United States today. We're not going to go and do a big deep dive like we did this morning. and you can go back and look at the video over the next couple days and see what's going on, but I'm going to show you the severe weather that's out there today and take a look a little bit more at rainfall totals. All right, got an enhanced risk of severe weather out there across the Midwest today. Much of the UP of Michigan, Wisconsin, back into Iowa. This has not changed much in aerial coverage, but the tornado threat has increased and we're seeing some clouds pop up. Those are thunderstorm clouds popping up in parts of the UP of Michigan and northern Wisconsin. Already got some rain going on in Iowa and southern Wisconsin. So, we're going to take a look at that here in just a minute. Uh, that is what's going on out there today. Slight risk around that. All of well much of Michigan, northern Illinois, back into most of Iowa and all of Wisconsin, the UP of Michigan. And then still got a little bit of leftover slight risk down here in North Carolina. Taking a look at the tornado threat. That is where we've got a 10% risk of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of a point here through central Wisconsin on in toward Iowa. And we're looking at places like uh let's go in here and see. We're talking about Wasau and over into Barba Barabou.

[00:17:14]Barabou gosh, can't even say it.

[00:17:16]Lacrosse and over into Waterlue. Got a lot of Lu's up here. All right, Rhinelander. Looking at all of these areas getting in on a potential tornado threat. 5% exists or extends out to Marquette, back to Milwaukee, and all the way back around towards center Cedar Rapids, Mason City, and uh places like that. So, that's what we're looking at today from a tornado standpoint.

[00:17:35]Obviously, wind certainly is going to be a problem with any of these thunderstorms. As I told you this morning, big short wave moving through with a whole lot of wind in the mid levels and that is helping to really organize the severe threat and hail could be an issue too. We've seen a couple of tornado warnings here in North Carolina and certainly we've seen um some wind reports and some flooding also with that. Taking a look at the actual radar, look at the look at the storms coming through Iowa. Now these are Let me turn on the alerts here and we'll see. Well, let me I I'll come back to that. Let's we're just poking around here, folks. I'm showing you a few things that are interesting. So thunderstorms in North Carolina, you can see those down here across the southeast and and the desert southwest back up into the four corners region. Great basin looking at some rain, getting some showers up here in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana. But the big action is developing over here in parts of the um central areas of the UP of Michigan back through Wisconsin. You see these little areas of uh clouds and thunderstorms starting to pop out here. You can't see the clouds here, but you can here. There is your satellite image. I'm going to put this into motion so you can see the visible. And you can see these thunderstorms just blowing up and you're starting to see more thunderstorms fire off here in central uh Wisconsin. These any of these could be tornatic. All right, so we're going to have we've got conditions that are right for spin. Big complex blowing up through Cedar Rapids headed toward Davenport and uh high clouds blowing off here through parts of the Ohio Valley. A lot of thunderstorms here in North Carolina. I've heard some rumbles here in Morganington, but it hasn't really been all that bad here.

[00:18:54]Just a few thunderstorms around. Not at my house though, of course. And Greensboro back in toward Raleigh.

[00:18:59]Durham looking at plenty of clouds associated with thunderstorms out there right now. So that's what we're seeing uh going going off back to the composite radar there. That is if we take a look and turn our alerts map back on, we can actually see if any of these are warned at this time. And yeah, we've got a big line of warnings coming through here. So severe thunderstorm warnings, we've got tornado watches up for until 10:00 Central time here in I in Iowa and back up into Michigan and over into Wisconsin. and tornado watches up until 11 local time as well. No, no tornado or severe thunderstorm watches in North Carolina, but plenty of heat alerts around the country. This map is really really lit up right now. So, I expect we're going to see a lot more activity and more warnings up here in Wisconsin.

[00:19:42]Some tornado warnings. Let's go back in here one more time. Sorry, I'm zooming in and out so much. Uh look at look at these boy near Marquette. tornado warning up there and tornado warnings down here toward Crystal Falls and uh over into um uh looks like Fort uh Fort Gwyn unit. I can't read the whole thing.

[00:19:59]Es sorry, I can't read it. Um my eyes are not that great anymore and it's too light to be able to read, but uh looks like we've got plenty of tornado warnings on the map right now. Zooming back out, we'll take a look at the whole entire map again and you can see a ton of heat advisories and extreme heat warnings. These are going to be in effect for tomorrow. And certainly we're seeing heat out there today with a lot of humidity around too. Heat advisories up into Washington, back into Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and over into Southern California and LA Basin. Looking at very, very hot conditions. And we've got heat uh extreme heat watch from tomorrow all the or Wednesday all the way through Monday of next week. It is going to be very hot with temperatures getting into the 110s approaching 115. So, a lot to pay attention to. We will have a full update on a lot of this other weather tomorrow, but be careful in Iowa, Wisconsin, and up into the UP of Michigan. A lot of severe weather potential out there today. As a matter of fact, if I take a look at this, I'll show you just the last couple of things.

[00:20:58]This is the radar. We're going to put this, let me just right here. This a future radar from the rapid refresh. And you can see as we roll this thing along, even if the rapid refresh doesn't turn out to be exact in terms of how the tropical storm uh eventually moves or develops, it will it gives you a good idea of where the heaviest rainfall.

[00:21:17]It's going to be along and south of the track. It's just a lopsided storm and so it's not really depicting a lot of rain getting in here. I expect more rain will pop up to the north than what it's showing. But that is one thing that we need to be concerned about is heavy rain along the Gulf Coast states if we get any sort of um northward trend at all in this. And as you can as you can see here as we get into five six o'clock east coast time now we've got thunderstorms breaking out rapid refresh doing a good job capturing this up into u around Marquette and back in toward the center of northern portion of Wisconsin. Plenty of thunderstorms out across parts of the mids south and southeast right now. A lot of rain showers, thunderstorms in the desert southwest four corners region. Look at that big line of storms just working through um getting into the thumb of Michigan, southern Wisconsin as the evening wears on. 9:00, 10:00. These are big time supercells up here. We're going to see tornadoes from some of these. So, be very, very, very careful.

[00:22:13]Stay weather aare up here. Things will die off eventually as we approach the midnight hour in the southeast and eventually out here in the southwest as well. and eventually with this. But this has got enough instability to work with that it's just going to hang on. We see this line progress in 3 and 4 a.m. could be very loud in toward Springfield and over in toward Indianapolis and back into southern uh Iowa there. So that little line will continue to hang on. We get to 7 a.m. in the morning, could see some showers here around Cincinnati, rumbles of thunder as well headed in toward Louisville, Kentucky. All right, so that's our uh weather forecast for today. Hey, I finally finished everything that I wanted to show you.

[00:22:51]And I'll just end with the precipitation map. And again, you can see big anomalies over the next 5 days here in the east. These are actual precipitation totals. Not necessarily anomalies, but a lot of precipitation going to fall. All it's going to be rain. And there's your scale up at the top. And here in center portion of the country, that's happening. That's what's happening today. And uh we'll get a little bit more uh rainfall coming in here into Nebraska later on. Uh and then out here in the southwest and up into the four corners and Rocky Mountain West, we're going to see rain there and along the Gulf Coast states, of course, obviously with tropical hopefully it will get a name quickly and then get out of here and um not strengthen anymore beyond that. So that's it for today, my friends, and we will see you back tomorrow. Make sure that you leave me a comment. Let me know if there's anything I can pray about for you to support you.

[00:23:35]I appreciate all of the support that you show to me and this channel. Really means a lot and I couldn't do this without you. So, thank you. Hope you have a great evening and we'll see you again tomorrow with another update.