LPA “Invest 99W” Forecast To Develop Within 24-48 Hours. Southwest Monsoon To Start This Weekend.

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]Hello everyone. Good day to all. This is Mike Mr. Typhon PW returning to our weather analysis for this uh Monday to Wednesday May 25 to 27, 2026. This is our English version brought to you by Typhoon 2000 and Naga College Foundation. We would like to thank our partners Abuitis Power and the local government of Naga City headed by our honorable mayor Lenn Rodo and our honorable vice mayor Gabby Bordado. So let's begin with our update. We are looking or watching a low pressure system a broad one over the uh western Micronia southeast of Yap. This is uh LPA invest 99W.

[00:00:46]So this uh slow developing system is uh expected to act up for the next 2 days and become a likely a tropical depression and into a tropical storm within the next 5 days. And this is uh forming within the uh unusual westerly wind burst. This is common when we have a developing El Nino. So instead of uh the usual trade winds here near the equator, we are observing the westerly wind burst which is uh triggering tropical cyclone formation much farther to the east of the Philippines. Okay.

[00:01:28]Somewhere between yepa Guam up to to the south of Hawaii. So it's uh worth uh watching that this system although it's uh expected to become a tropical uh cyclone based on all global models and uh it's uh track is northward or over the open waters. So we are going to observe this in the coming uh uh 5 days.

[00:02:00]So we'll keep you updated and once this enters the Philippine Arab responsibility it will be known locally as Doming.

[00:02:08]So here's the uh fast animation from the University of Wisconsin page. As you can see, this elongated LPS is beginning to uh consolidate uh to the southeast of uh Yap and it's currently quasi stationary with the center uh located somewhere here and uh this uh tropical low is forecast to move towards the northwest into the uh open waters of the Philippine Sea for the next uh uh 5 days. This will be the track of the next tropical cyclone that is expected to uh form within the next uh 48 hours. And as well uh this system will eventually uh start the southwest monsoon across the western sections of the country. So take note of these areas, okay? Because these areas of the Philippines will be expecting some occasional monsoon rains during the last few days of uh uh May until the first week of June. And during the first few days of June, there will be uh likely another low pressure ratio system that will uh form here and uh move towards Luzon Strait near the Bataris Cove Islands south of Taiwan and into the southern islands of Japan and we are also keeping an eye on that potential system. Now here's the zoom in s animation from windy.com.

[00:03:54]Uh this was uh the loop beginning at 6:00 p.m. until 11:00 this evening. As the evening progresses, there are strong thunderstorms over Sulu archipelago.

[00:04:05]There are others over uh northern and central Luzison which is uh currently or they are currently dissipating right now and there are also some across Mindanao 3/4s of Mindanao has been uh uh experiencing some localized thunderstorms and this is the system that we are now uh observing. So over the big region we uh experience another day of uh no rain, no thunderstorms but within the next uh few days we expect isolated thunderstorms to develop in uh isolated areas of the big region.

[00:04:51]Now here's the latest uh forecast models. Let's begin. First this is from the American model. So, as we speak, here's the LPA elongated with the trough extending up to the uh coastal waters of eastern Mindanao.

[00:05:10]And uh by tomorrow, uh Tuesday, May 26, likely to become an active LPA. On Wednesday, it could become a tropical depression and on Thursday eventually into a tropical storm. But the motion is pollard towards the north and uh the Philippine air responsibility is located here up to this area. So it's uh likely that this system upon uh moving the uh let me move the slider. Friday, May 29, it's likely to enter par as a tropical a severe tropical storm or even a category 1 typhoon. And the southwesterly wind flow is beginning to pick up over Talawan, western Visayas and western Luzon as well as western Mindanao. And on Saturday, the uh um typhoon is the forecasted typhoon is uh continue to move into the North Philippine Sea with the southwest monsoon is now affecting southern Palawan. And on Sunday, it will eventually um expand. The effects of the southwest monsoon will eventually expand across the west of Balawan and into the western sections of Mindoro and western Visayas as well as the western sections of Mindanao that includes some Vanga Peninsula.

[00:06:47]So here the big region we expect westerly to southwesterly wind flow.

[00:06:54]Okay, so that's the forecast for the next 5 to 6 days. If we move farther into the first seven days of the month of June, there's another LPA here over the uh Spratley Islands west of Palawan that is expected to develop and uh but is somewhat weakening during the first uh few days of uh uh June as this uh soon to be doming is moving across the southern islands of Japan. So it will be purely southwest monsoon or monsunal flow across the country particularly the western sections. So please take all ne precautions. Now if we take a look at the uh European model it shows here the same situation the same with the American model.

[00:07:51]Thursday May 28 it's likely to become a tropical storm. Friday entering par becoming doming southwesterly wind flow here over western uh Philippines and then on Saturday and Sunday it will move farther towards the southern islands of Japan that's over the north Philippine Sea uh this coming weekend and the southwest monsoon is set to uh start across Pawan western Misayas western Mindoro and uh western Mindanao Okay. So, it's uh showing the same situation here. The LPA here is not expected to intensify based on the uh American and uh European model. It looks like it will be purely uh the southwest monsoon during the first 5 days of uh June.

[00:08:48]Now, let's take a look at the uh insemble. This is the American model insemble GFS and uh it shows here the track of the storm towards the Philippine Sea without any uh direct impacts over the uh island of Luzison or the Philippines. If we take a look at the uh European model assembled, same uh assemble forecast uh trucks as well as uh this is the system to the west of the country, but this still uncertain if it will develop. Here's the Google deep mind and I got to show you the symbol is becoming more on a high probability of development.

[00:09:35]Okay, this is May 30th.

[00:09:38]And then on the first few days of uh June, there's also another one here, but they still uh uh is scattered away from each other. So, it's uh most likely it will just be a low pressure system or just part of the monsunal flow. Here's the separate tracks from the Google deep mind.

[00:10:03]So uh the forecast of the Google deep mind uh shows this uh potential storm reaching category 4 with winds of uh 215 kph. That's forecast of the Google deep mind. And on uh uh let me show it to you here. This will be on June 1st.

[00:10:27]There's the uh other system forming over the West Philippine Sea moving into Luson Strait just to the south of Taiwan or along the uh coastal waters of southern Taiwan becoming a severe tropical storm. So that's the forecast of the uh Google Deep Mind. It's the AI model of Google.

[00:10:56]So uh the probability of the uh next tropical cyclone that will be uh the next 48 hours is now on a high probability. So we'll give you the very latest on that in the coming days and uh as we take a look at the rain forecast. So every day we expect some isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in most parts of the country except for the big region. There might be some developing thunderstorms over the big region and during the afternoon in some isolated areas not uh strong enough but we don't know if the model change we expect thunderstorms in the afternoon.

[00:11:45]Okay. So don't forget to bring your umbrellas and rain gear.

[00:11:52]And on Saturday and Sunday, we expect the start of the southwesterly wind flow and uh eventually becoming the southwest monsoon as uh the potential tropical storm doming is set to enhance it uh this coming weekend.

[00:12:09]Now for the 24-hour rainfall accumulation forecast, it shows here that the uh first effects of the southwest monsoon will be felt during the uh weekend Saturday and Sunday across Palawan and western Visayas and on Monday June 1st it will uh move farther towards the western Lon area. So June 2 and three and into June 4, we expect more monsoon rains across the western sections of Lison from Ilocos region down to the western sections of central Luzison, Metro Manila and accidental Muro with uh 24-hour rainfall of 50 to more than 100 mm. and also here over western Benai uh Bakai.

[00:13:08]So we expect this kind of uh situation moderate to heavy to at times to rainfall brought about by the southwest monsoon which will be enhanced by the uh developing low pressure system that could become tropical storm doming uh this coming weekend. So uh that's the scenario. So the onset of the southwest monsoon is just around the corner and the start of the rainy season along the type one climate of the Philippines meaning the western sections of Luzon Palawan western Visayas and western Mimopa.

[00:13:51]Once this happens, Pagasa will announce officially the start of the wet or rainy season. For the wave heights, uh still same situation for the next 5 days until the weekend. We expect uh uh wave heights of up to 1 m over the East Philippine Sea. Over the uh central waters of the country is calm conditions up to 1 m as well. West Philippine Sea up to half a meter in wave heights. But on but during the weekend we expect the southwest monsoon to eventually affect the uh wave heights of uh the uh west Philippine sea. We have here reaching 2 meters over west of Pawan and Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday eventually the western sections of the country will have wave heights of up to 2 m. This is because of the onset of the southwest monsoon.

[00:14:57]Okay, so that ends our update for this evening of Monday, May 25th. And we will return this coming uh Wednesday for another update on the weather, particularly the upcoming uh tropical cyclone is set to form near Yap and the onset of the southwest monsoon beginning this weekend.

[00:15:20]From Typhoon 2000, this is Mike Mr. Typhoon Padawa. Stay safe always. the # weatheriser # typheniser and thank you so much for watching our channel. God bless to all.