Planning Outlook (26/5/26)

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-27

[00:00:05]Hi folks, this is your IMWIS planning outlook for the days and weeks ahead. We start our story on Wednesday morning with this cute little highpress core just east of Scotland. This is the driving feature of our weather. Notice the cloud around northern England, southern Scotland. Also some cloud in northeast Scotland as well as the northwest highlands. This is low cloud being driven by that high pressure. So that will linger for a few morning hours, but it will lift and tend to dissipate as the day gets going. Uh many western areas clear of cloud from the morning and well into the day as well.

[00:00:36]That cloud just tending to linger in northern England and southern Scotland.

[00:00:40]Wales very clear of cloud getting hot here too on the summits. We're going to see high temperatures in the upper teens. And with that sun, there's going to be strong warm sunshine. Uh not as hot towards the north, highs in the low to middle teens. But still beware in northern Scotland for example, there could be some hot sunshine. Through the afternoon, we start to see some showers bubbling up in Wales. Looks like mid Wales is where that will occur at first and they will be well scattered. Most areas staying dry and even in uh northern England and southern Scotland.

[00:01:09]Looks like sun will be breaking out here. High tops of the Lake District may just see some grazing cloud throughout the day, but many hills are going to be clear. Now into Wednesday night, notice this rain feature is going to increase in strength. Clouds starting to fill in across Wales. And these little bursts of rain could be quite heavy around the Breen beacons and into and overnight.

[00:01:30]These are going to move north and eastward. So Thursday at daybreak, Penines and even the Lake District could see some heavy bursts of rain drifting northward. They will be moving relatively quickly, but it is a feature that could give several hours of morning rain to these regions.

[00:01:48]As far as wind goes, Wednesday is going to be a pretty mild day. Not a lot of wind in Scotland and Northern England.

[00:01:54]Only really later in Wales are we going to see winds increasing to above 20 mph, but they will become quite gusty and those gusts could reach some lower terrain. Thursday looks to be a breezier day. We've now got the winds shifted southerntherly and that rain is going to move northward. So expect as the day gets going, northern England, southern Scotland, an increasing chance of rain.

[00:02:16]And as with earlier in the day, there will be that possibility of some heavy bursts. Scottish Highlands are pretty well protected from the worst of the weather. Looks like the central highlands may see just little bits of rain, but most of the Highlands are going to be clear of cloud, high temperatures, possibly the mid- teens in those northern areas where skies are much clearer. Skies will clear as this feature weakens as well on Thursday in northern areas, but it looks like Wales is going to struggle to get the most sunshine here as on that southerntherly breeze turning southwesterly with time.

[00:02:47]More cloud is going to roll in. If that cloud is on the tops, it's going to stay on the high terrain. But also notice little bits of showery debris are going to be breaking out in Wales. And these will pass once again into central England as the day goes and later in the day reaching western Scotland as well.

[00:03:04]So, it's a good day, but not all the way until sunset. The tightening isabars are going to bring us some stronger wind as well. And into Friday, this remains the case. Wales highpress ridge going to keep things more settled here too. More cloud around in most areas. Looks like Scotland and particularly northeastern Scotland is going to see the best of sunshine on Friday. But with that southwesterly wind coming in, those western areas are going to see spells of cloud and rain. sometimes cloud reaching those middle to upper slopes. Drier to the south, southern Scotland, England, and Wales are likely to stay dry. A cloudier day, but most of this cloud near or even above the summits, and it's going to be a bit variable as the day goes. Notice that things are kind of moving relatively quickly. High pressure over Wales, keeping things settled, keeping that moisture near the surface.

[00:03:50]So, a bit of a gloomy day, maybe even a humid day, but still on the dry side.

[00:03:54]Scotland, not too wet. I think most of that rain was going to occur in the morning, but the further north you go, the greater risk of some spells of rain coming through. However, late in the day, it does look like there is some clearing more widely. Northern Scotland still at a risk of some rain, but not a great risk.

[00:04:12]A first glance at what we can expect over the weekend. This is the chart for noon on Saturday from the ECMWF. Still probably a mostly dry some but we have a low pressure system across Ireland in the morning and this will be drawing rain north and eastward as the day goes.

[00:04:27]So western and northern parts of Scotland could become quite wet. Most areas filling in with some cloud. The clouds starting to reach the high tops of northwest England and Wales. Not a particularly wet day in England and Wales. Maybe in Snowonia but then overnight into Sunday. Low pressure becoming more dominant. More of that low cloud on those western coasts. the heaviest of the rain drifting north, but northwest Scotland could be fairly wet through the day. But notice just a little bit of high pressure to the south trying to prevent any major weather systems from drawing through. So, a general deterioration.

[00:05:00]And when I said unsettled, I really did mean it. This is the outlook chart for the first week of June. Uh blue colors mean lower than average pressure, orange colors higher than average pressure. And the isobars here indicate the strength of the upper level jetream that kind of brings the weather systems to us. So first week of June looks like an unsettled week. The flow is more zonal in nature and this means that it's not necessarily a northerly flow. So the temperatures won't be particularly cool despite that unsettled weather. On the occasion we do get a more northwesterly shifted flow. There could be some showers drifting into the northwest of Scotland. Some of those reaching further south as well. Not cold temperatures by this time of year. I don't foresee any major northwesterly flows coming through. Uh southwestern areas with high pressure nearby. There could still be some of those more settled spells, possibly even some thundery showers encroaching into Wales and southern parts of the Penines. In a regime like this, eastern areas do tend to do the best, especially the northeast once the southwesterlys come into play. But with low pressure nearby, I do think some of the low pressure systems that come through will be strong enough to bring rain fairly widely across most areas. Do expect western parts to be often covered in cloud and it's going to be breezy pretty frequently as well.

[00:06:16]Into the second week of June, a bit more of a settled streak, generally just more average. We've got no colors over the United Kingdom and the isobars are not as closely packed together. So there is a trough feature nearby. So I think this does mean that we will lean towards the lower pressure side of things. Could be still some of those spells of unsettled weather coming in from the west. I think there is that risk still of some thundery rain coming through once we pull up some of that um that air from the Mediterranean and from the south.

[00:06:47]But nonetheless, we continue to see most of the unsettled weather in western areas. Low cloud here at times, but also some breaks for bright and nice weather.

[00:06:55]I think it'll be changeable in this way.

[00:06:57]It doesn't look like there's going to be any extended settled or unsettled spell as we get into mid June. But of course in these situations, it's those eastern areas that will fare the best most often.

[00:07:10]One last little nugget of information for interest. This is the wind flow chart. This is at the height of approximately a high Monroe level. Now this indicates the flow is going approximately in this direction. Now, with this flow, it looks like Great Britain will be cut off from the primarily Mediterranean flow, but any chance that this flow does start to meander further westward into Great Britain, that is where if we get enough of that heat and moisture, some of those thunderstorms could break out. And the further north that flow goes, the further north those thunderstorms could occur. So, not making any specific forecasts yet, but just wanted to set the stage for that possibility. Some mixed fortunes in the outlook. You can always keep up to date with the details for each mountain area on our website.

[00:07:54]And that's the story for now. We'll talk to you again soon.