LIVE: Tracking Bertha

[00:00:00]and Friday. So, there's a view right now from Lake Fair View out there. Good deal of clouds. You know, we we do have some clouds out there. Uh we're not really talking about a big amount of rain for us here today, but there's definitely some showers and some thunderstorms around. Um and there will still be some through the evening, but I think the biggest stuff's going to be uh up to the north of us.

[00:00:22]So, so there's the view from Lake Fairview. Couple of clouds. You might notice the wind. It's a little bit breezy out there. We've got wind gusts that are like 20 25 miles an hour. Um, and those winds will continue through tomorrow. They might actually pick up a little bit tomorrow. I mean, I guess you can kind of call this we're on the eastern side. Uh, we're on the eastern side of the circulation here of soon to be Bertha. So, let me give you the very latest. So, this currently is [clears throat] tropical depression 2.

[00:00:52]Uh, it has winds of 35 miles an hour. It is moving to the northwest at three.

[00:00:58]Now, we are on the eastern side of the circulation. And what that means is that we're getting some south to north flow.

[00:01:04]We're also getting some of the heat and the humidity, but we're not really getting a lot of the rain. In fact, most of the weather with this [clears throat] is actually south of the center. So, if you look, I'm going to draw on here.

[00:01:17]Focus your eyes right there.

[00:01:21]Zoom it in so you can see that's where the center is. See that?

[00:01:28]See this little teeny swirl right here? Right there. See that little thing? Let me make the pen a little bit smaller so you can see it. So the the thing that's going on with Bertha right now, depression too, soon to be Bertha.

[00:01:42]See right there? That's the center. You see the little swirly swirly right there? So that's the center of a tropical system or a weather system, a storm on Earth in meteorology is where the winds are going around a fixed point. So that's the fixed point and that's where the winds are going around just like that. Coming down like that and around like that and then you just piece it all together and the winds are going like this over here and then like that over there. Now um if you look at that uh I so focus where the L is. I'll draw it again so you can see. So there's the L. I'm going to make this really thick and big.

[00:02:24]I'm going to divide this into quadrants.

[00:02:26]So right across the middle right that was bad. I was off by a little bit.

[00:02:37]So here is the storm divided into quadrants.

[00:02:44]I do it like that and like that. And what I want you to notice is where is the majority of the weather and the majority of the storms?

[00:02:57]Well, it's on the southwest side and the southeast side. So, it's kind of lopsided. We've got the center and then all of the weather is south and southwest of the center. That's because it's dealing with some pretty strong northerly wind shear. So high up in the atmosphere, the winds are blowing like this, blowing like that, which is why the storm is kind of tilted back on its side. So on the northern side, there's not a lot of rainbands right now. We're on the south side, this is where all the storms are is well south of the center.

[00:03:35]So this is going to try to strengthen.

[00:03:37]should become a storm by this evening.

[00:03:39]Might try to become a hurricane, but it's going to be a very lopsided storm where all the big weather is on the south side. Now, it'll track probably something like this just to the south of Lake Poncho Train by Wednesday evening. But what this could do is provide quite an interesting storm surge for being such a weak system into Lake Pon Train is you're going to have a lot of this prolonged east to west flow into New Orleans as the storm goes west. So for Florida, [clears throat] after today, uh it'll still be kind of breezy tomorrow, couple of rainbands, but after tomorrow, that's it for us. Uh this is going to move west and move away from us over the next couple of days. So that's the visible satellite. Let me show you the colorized satellite. And again, if you didn't know any better, this kind of just looks like scrambled eggs or a mess on the satellite. Here's the uh here's the view. I mean, it's not not that organized in the colorized satellite. put your comments on YouTube. Would love to hear from you here uh on our Fox 35 weather plus. So, what's going on everybody today? Uh let us see your comments. I want to hear from you. What's going on everybody? How you doing? Dal 1021 says, "I'm over by Chiliota." Um doesn't look too bad over there right now. Doesn't look too bad over there right now. Um but it is a little bit breezy today. Just a little bit breezy out there right now. Uh Amy says, "I'm near UCF."

[00:05:04]Uh Amy says, "No thunder in my part of Avidito. Dealing with thunderstorms in Ovido." Um strange clouds, sun and wind intermittently. I'm on the east coast.

[00:05:15]Yeah, that's the far outer bands of tropical depression too. Again, soon to be tropical storm Bertha as this is pushing off towards the west. So, nothing extreme for Florida, [clears throat] but still feeling in some of those impacts out there right now. And we're going to continue to talk more about this tonight uh on the news at 4 or the 407 with Marisa and I and then at 5 and then at 6 and 8 and 10 and 11. So, let me show you the cone. So, this is the latest forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center. And let me clean up these clean up these things is they just for some reason added them all on here again. Let me clean it up so you can kind of see where we're where we're talking about and when.

[00:06:00]So here's the cone. Now remember the cone tells you where the center may go, not the extent of the impact. So um in this cone is where the eye of the storm could go. It could go south or north, but in in the cone is where the eye could go. Now, if it goes somehow the center stays out over here, doesn't make landfall in Louisiana, it could become a hurricane over in here, could become a hurricane, but that would require it to take a southern more than expected route because you see the the forecast path is right here through southern Louisiana, then weakening to a depression, then a remnant low by time it gets over towards Houston by later in the week on Friday.

[00:06:41]But you can see some strengthening uh by 8:00 in the morning Tuesday. 8 a.m.

[00:06:45]Tuesday would be this line here. So somewhere in that region, 45 sustained winds, gust to 60. Little bit of strengthening, some kind of a landfall on Wednesday, southeast Louisiana.

[00:06:57]Interesting for New Orleans, even though it's not a super strong storm. Um, let me turn on the town labels. Even though it's not a super strong storm, you're going to get, remember, the flow around a tropical storm or hurricane is counterclockwise. So the flow is like this.

[00:07:14]Now, what that means is you're going to push a lot of water. Even though it's again not a raging cat 3 hurricane, you got a a long fetch of two or three days of gusty sustained east to west flow into Lake Pasha. So there could be some minor coastal flooding, maybe even a little bit of a storm surge um around New Orleans and then the B down into the baru and the marshland there uh of Homa and uh southern New Orleans as you go into Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday. So that's definitely something to keep in mind out. But again, uh moving away from Florida is the idea here.

[00:07:54]Certainly moving away from Florida. So do we have anything big to be worried about here in Florida? No, I don't really think so. But we do have some storms out there right now. Let me show those to you here. So, here's the radar over the last two hours. You can see everything is moving from south to north. These kind of bands of rain. We actually have now I'll stop the radar and show you. Uh we actually have um a severe thunderstorm warning here up around Jacksonville. Um this is kind of more so what I thought yesterday and the weekend would have been like, oddly enough. Um but you can see here there's a severe storm here going up into Duval County, then St. John's County just to the north of us uh for some uh 60 mph winds and maybe some quarter sized hail.

[00:08:35]But let's bring you back to our home view here. So through the evening and again tomorrow it's breezy. A couple of sporadic rainbands moving from south to north. We've got this band here from Dade City to Gainesville. These are moving to the northeast. So heads up in the villages. Let me time this for the villages for you. Probably a decent little downpour here. Uh coming up at Oh, let me tell you. So, not that that timing is off. Let me put the correct speed in here. It's not moving at 83 miles an hour. Um probably something like this.

[00:09:08]So, we'll track this into the villages probably about 4:30. So, heads up in around the villages at about 4:30 for a little thunderstorm. Probably nothing severe, but Coleman about 410 and then Belleview closer to 439. And again, that would be one of those outer rainbands from tropical depression 2, otherwise known as soon to be and expected to be tropical storm Bertha. All right, if you're on our Fox Local platform, we're going to take a quick two-minute break here at 43 and we'll be back in about 2 minutes and we'll talk much more about the radars tonight. I'll show you the futurecast for tomorrow and we'll talk about the rest of your week as we have some weather changes ahead. So stay with us.

[00:09:49]We did audio test.

[00:10:13]Heat. Hey, Heat.

[00:12:44]Heat. Hey. Hey. Hey.

[00:12:48]Heat. Heat.

[00:13:35]Welcome back, Fox Local, YouTube, Facebook fam. Hope you're having a great day on this Monday. So, one more track of that downpour coming into the Villages area about 4:30 for a little downpour there. So, here's the region view right now. We've got this one little band, actually two bands. One band right here from Gainesville down towards Bushnull. One little band here from Jacksonville through Flagler Beach.

[00:13:56]Then one here from the eastern side of Ovido down through Bard County. So, all three of these, there's one, two, three, they're all moving to the northeast. Um, the only one that's severe is up around Jacksonville right now. Uh, and that's again moving away from us. But you can see these three bands of outer bands from developing tropical storm Bertha that are moving off to the northeast.

[00:14:22]And that'll be the trend as we head through the rest of the evening tonight.

[00:14:25]So, put your comments, questions on Facebook and YouTube. love to hear from you today. Hope you had a great weekend.

[00:14:32]Um, let me pull up some of your comments here. Let's see what's cooking here. Let me [snorts] pull some of them up here.

[00:14:37]Hello. Hello. Hello. Um, what's going on everybody? William, you are not live on Facebook. Yeah, I I don't know what's going on. I I I was trying to troubleshoot it. Sorry about that, William. Um, couldn't get it figured out before we uh before we come on. Alice Blanco 3342. Hello, Alice. How are you? Um, let's see. Got a comment here from Okachchobee. This is a good one. Um, Gail says, "Beautiful in Okchobee."

[00:15:11]Yeah, outside of these bands, uh, it's just a nice warm, hot, sunny day. Um, in Central Florida. So, let me track these three bands for you here. Uh, they're all moving to the northeast at about 35 mph. So, we'll track this one here. Get a little tracker on this one for you.

[00:15:31]Something like that. So, we'll put this into Ocala about 408, little downpour.

[00:15:37]Reic about 406, Wildwood about 420, and Waldo 422. So, let me track this next one over here. And again, just some lightning and thunder, a little bit of a tropical downpour. Uh, really otherwise not much outside of the ordinary for July afternoon.

[00:15:54]Query this. So get this at about 35 mph, a little bit more to the north. Uh so this will this downpour will be into Port St. John area about 411. Uh Titusville 4:15 uh by the Max Brewer Bridge at about 417. And then Space Coast Regional Airport uh by about 410.

[00:16:13]And then this downpour up over here, it's really kind of already moving on out. You can see here it's from about Jacksonville down through Flaggler Beach again moving northeast about 35. So, Neptune Beach about 419, Flagwood Beach uh now, uh Palm Valley about 409, uh Jacksonville Beach about 418, and St. Augustine again uh coming in within the next couple of minutes uh for a downpour there. So, that's really kind of the only things we're watching. Now, rain over the past 5 days [cough and clears throat] has been significant for areas west of Orlando as expected. So, this being Orlando, west of this line has been where all the rain has been. Uh, and then east of Orlando, there hasn't been much. In fact, there's places, just look here out by Cape Canaveral, there's been about zero inches of rain, as crazy as that is. Then you come by Orlando, there's been one. And then you go over here down closer towards Tampa Bay and there's been seven. So very big rain disparity from Orlando to the Cape out towards Tampa. Uh in fact this is from this influence of this developing tropical system. You come down over here by Venice and look at some of the rain here by Venice over the last few days. 6.4 7.8. So some much needed drought relief on the west coast. They come up by Bradon Beach last 5 days.

[00:17:42]>> 6.6 inches of rain. Uh you come up toward in the center of Tampa Bay here uh right off of Sun City center he means 7.3 four and Ruskin about 4.2 as you come up over here towards Seminal and Largo over towards Kenneth City look at some of these rain totals here 7.3 6.1 5.6 six and then uh once you get up towards uh interestingly Holiday and Newport Richie a little bit of a drop off by Loots about three center of Tampa about 1.42 42 Mango about 0.95 out towards Zephr Hills 71. So there was a big disparity as you can tell from rain west to east and out across the Gulf is a little area here of some really big rain totals. Uh 14 inches of rain there.

[00:18:31]Look at that. 14 inches of rain in the past 5 days. Uh and that was >> not that far off the off the shoreline.

[00:18:41]In fact, only about 20 miles away. uh where's a foot and a half of rain in the past five days. So you can clearly see where the influence of this tropical wave has been as it's moved up like this. Uh all the rain has been just east of the center which a few days ago that looked like it was going to be over us over Orlando. Well, seeing as though it's moving north than west instead of north and east, it displaced more of it out across the Gulf over than the Florida Peninsula. So, we don't need the rain as much as the the Gulf Coast does.

[00:19:14]I mean, they thankfully have gotten some rain out of this. But, uh, for now, all all the big rain is moving off to the west. And again, if you're just joining us, uh, there is tropical depression, too. This is the visible satellite.

[00:19:25]There's the center. You can see all the bands pivoting in wrapping around. A lot of dry air on the northwest side. You can see there the northwest side kind of a little bit um of a ghost town. There's no clouds. and then all the big convection and storms is south of the center. So, what happens next? Well, I'll show you the Fox model in a second, but let me pull up some of the um excessive rain forecast. So, there's the flood outlook today. Uh this might be a little more interesting for tomorrow and then Wednesday, you can see uh as the uh tropical storm goes across, this is where there could be some flooding is just south of New Orleans by Homa and Thibido. Well, that's probably the more impactful area. Here's the rain forecast from the weather service uh for the next couple of days. Me turn that off. Turn off this.

[00:20:17]Look at some of these rain totals out across the Gulf. 15 inches of rain. You come up here in southern parts of Louisiana, seven. Uh so there'll be a big bullseye going west, but look across Florida. I mean, this is over the next 5 days. Uh this is additional rain.

[00:20:32]Orlando a half an inch. Titusville 75, Palm Coast 75, Tampa. 0.25. So, we're pushing out uh most of the moisture from this uh over the next several days. But so through the evening, couple of downpours and storms. And in fact, this was the graphic that we showed last week uh I believe Thursday and Friday was that the further west this goes, the less impacts we're going to get. The more it moves east, the more impacts we would have got. Well, it went west and not east. Temperatures out there now are actually not too terribly bad. Um, actually pretty typical for a July afternoon. In fact, a little bit cooler in spots because of the clouds and showers. Where it hasn't rained, it's 92 in Titusville, uh, 92 in Bushnull.

[00:21:19]Temps across the state are still up there. Uh 91 West Palpm, 92 Miami, 86 Tampa, 92 Jacksonville and Pensacola where there hasn't been rain yet. But the humidity is up there because of this tropical system. Due points again are in the upper half of the 70s which is definitely tropical air. I mean anything above 75 we considered to be pretty tropical. So that there you can see the Dupoint guide being 75 plus. Now uh what happens next with Bertha? Well, let me show you.

[00:21:53]So, I'm going to cue this up. Now, we've been having a problem with our graphics system. So, this is going to be slightly outdated, but I'll just still walk you through it because this is from last night. This this computer model run, but you get the idea. I just wanted you to be aware of that. So, if you watch me at five and it looks really different just because this model's a little bit older, but you get the idea. So, here's here's the center of the storm. Here's these bands that are coming through today.

[00:22:17]Now, watch how the center is going to push west over the next few days.

[00:22:25]And you can see a lot of the rain and storms lopsided south of the center. In fact, if you look here, it's a really interesting storm where if you look, this is Tuesday. See, just a couple of random showers for us the next few days, but the rain chances are going to come down. Uh there's the center of the tropical storm close to a hurricane. The wind's going around like that. Remember, that's where the center is. But look at where all the moisture is. Way, way lopsided south of the center. So there's the center. There's all the moisture.

[00:22:59]It's dealing with that strong northerly shear that's tilting the storm over.

[00:23:03]It's leaning on its side this way to the southwest because high up a loft there's really strong winds like this which is tilting the storm over. Uh so it's lopsided uh which will prevent it from becoming a major hurricane but um thankfully for New Orleans but again as that goes like this could be a little bit of a storm surge a little bit of minor coastal flooding into Lake Pontra train uh into Belaluxy Mobile uh those areas as we go into Wednesday night Thursday. But again for us here's tomorrow at 700 p.m. Notice there's just a couple sprinkles on the Florida Peninsula. In fact it's not even that much. Um, so doesn't look too terribly impactful at this point for us. Just a little bit gusty again tomorrow.

[00:23:47]Speaking of the winds, we pull up some of those wind gusts right now.

[00:23:53]Here are the gusts right now. Some decent gusts. I mean, from the southeast, 1525, a little bit stronger tomorrow, then the wind sub should subside by the end of the week. So, there's the latest on the cone. if you missed it off the top. Moving away from us, we should officially get Bertha tonight, the latest tomorrow morning, and then uh >> in impact towards New Orleans as we go to um Wednesday and a Thursday. But if it becomes a hurricane, it would be a category one at most. Uh and that would probably be about it uh for the intensity. So, I appreciate you watching on Fox Local, uh on YouTube and Facebook. Uh for right now, I'm going to get ready for the 407. We've got a special guest today. You're not going to want to miss that with Marisa uh and I.

[00:24:41]And I will see you coming up much more tonight after the Indie Car on Fox 35 at 5. Have a great rest of your day.

[00:25:06]Heat. Heat.