Australia: Another Rainfall Event is Developing in the East...

追加: 2026-05-05

[00:00:01]Good day folks. My name is Josh from Cyclones Oz and this is your detailed Australiawide weather forecast update for Wednesday the 29th of April 2026.

[00:00:09]Plenty to talk about today. Plenty more rainfall still to come for parts of the Australian East Coast, but still very much in drought conditions over there.

[00:00:16]And our first major winter cold front expected to impact parts of southern and southeastern Australia on the cards in early May. Now, if you're brand new to my channel, please do consider subscribing. But let's get stuck straight into the picture across Eastern Australia. I don't want to get anyone anyone's hopes up just yet because we certainly are still well and truly in our drought conditions across eastern Australia. If you missed yesterday's update, you can see a wide swath of far northeastern New South Wales and parts of southern Queensland properly into these level three to level five drought conditions right now, which is as high as the scale goes. So, we're talking about level three through here being severe, level four being exceptional, and then level five in this maroon coloring at extreme drought conditions.

[00:00:54]It doesn't get much drier than this. And particularly at this time of the year where we are coming out of our wet season for these parts of New South Wales and Queensland to see below average soil moisture anomalies going into an El Nino event very very concerning for these areas. So places like Tamworth, Narbry, uh Mori through northeastern New South Wales really going to do it tough in the next couple of months and then over the border not as dire through Queensland but St. George, Kamala, Gander, Wendy, and even Texas up towards Warrick and Touumba looking very crispy on the Queensland side of things and a couple of spots out here into the scenic rim as well.

[00:01:26]Looking pretty dry and drab. The good news is there is a little bit of rain relief and this one could spell a couple more millimeters coming for inland locations. So, let's talk a bit about this one briefly. Now, you can see today we've got another trough beginning to approach the Queensland coastline that's generating that localized instability up here, which could translate to a thunderstorm or two moving into the Fraser Island coast. You can see that little weak trough here protruding up to the Queensland coastline. There is not much bite in this one at all, but it will translate to a couple of showers here and there, particularly through northeastern New South Wales and then over into the Gold Coast and maybe the eastern suburbs of Brisbane as well with rainfall being focused into the afternoon hours for these regions.

[00:02:03]Showers continue through tonight. They will ease off a little bit through tomorrow morning before picking up again tomorrow afternoon as we get a bit more instability from daytime heating. It's going to be a cold one tomorrow. These southeasterly winds are expected to be quite strong and gusty at times. And you can see here 50 even pushing 60ks an hour offshore. In fact, getting closer to 70ks an hour offshore will keep things very cool and even cold through tomorrow. But you can see a couple more drops of rainfall expected here and there. Friday, again, a couple more coastal showers expected. In fact, they do pick up substantially for northeastern New South Wales on Friday night. And that's in thanks to another trough approaching the coast. Now, we see winds shift from this southeasterly to southerntherly flow, which only favors these coastal areas seeing rainfall. Uh and that's going to be continuing through today, Thursday, and Friday. And we see them shift to more easterly based on the weekend. And this is going to allow for a better chance of rainfall developing through southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales. There's a couple of things that could go wrong here for rainfall, but there's also a couple of things that could go right. Let's start off with what could go right. Now, first of all, we've got that trough here protruding uh across the Queensland coastline. In fact, a big trough out here further offshore, and that is going to eject these strong winds into the Queensland coastline. a lot of moisture, semi- tropical moisture associated with it.

[00:03:13]And we've also got an upper level trough which as you know over the last couple of weeks we've seen a lot of them and that's been generating our uh instability in the atmosphere and that's really going to get itself established through Friday and into Saturday. But you can see that that surface base trough situated offshore and that upper trough situated onshore, they're not really colloccated with each other and that's not working well for rainfall right now. So there's definitely the chance of a couple of spots picking up those 20 to 25 mm falls and even 30 mm or so along the northeast New South Wales coastline on Saturday and into early Sunday morning. But this rainfall looks to remain strictly coastal right now. The good news is with this more easterly flow in the rainfall, it's going to allow for rainfall to hit the coast perpendicularly instead of coming up parallel to the coastline, which means it will have a better chance of penetrating inland. And I'd say that there's a good chance that areas about halfway between Bruce and Roma for seeing about a millimeter or two of rainfall. So our drought impacted areas out around Dolby, Tara, Chinchilla, even Touumba and War as well likely to see a drop or two of rainfall this weekend and maybe a light drop or two of rainfall as well over the border into northeastern New South Wales. But rainfall accumulations don't remain anything flashy at this point in time. And you can see for the most part rainfall does remain strictly coastal, which is not the best news right now. The good news is actually going to be behind this shower event. We've got a bit of a frontal system that's expected to slide through New South Wales and maybe even impact southeastern Queensland. We're going to talk about this one in great detail in just a few minutes because it's more going to impact southeastern Australia in a potentially severe manner. But for New South Wales and Queensland, this could bring some isolated rain relief to western portions of drought impacted areas. But as we've been talking about in recent days, another classic case of rain occurring where it's not really needed. It is definitely focused out here around the uh really extremely remote parts of inland Australia around Lake Air where they do not need any more rainfall. Not for a couple of years and it misses out on the northeast of New South Wales and the southeast of Queensland. That could really do with a good drop. And you can see that there a high pressure ridge completely disintegrating any chance of this frontal system pushing out into New South Wales and into southeastern Queensland. And you can see rainfall accumulations are representative of that. the bulk of the rainfall here, you know, we've got spaiths of 10 to 25 mm in a few spots around western New South Wales. A couple of drops pushing up towards the kind of lightning ridge area out here, but again, nothing flash and a big dry slot located over these drought impacted areas. In fact, that's bullseyeing on where the worst drought conditions are located right now with coastal areas once again picking up more rainfall. And that's just a a a classic setup as we go into drought periods here. uh that southeasterly flow dominated by that ridge into the Tasman Sea creating coastal rainfall and then frontal systems thanks to warm water into the uh great Australian bite and the bass straight generating this rainfall through western and rural parts of New South Wales and completely missing our drought impacted areas developing now across northeastern New South Wales. Not ideal at all. In fact, very very bad for those facing significant water shortage concerns at this point in time. So, no point in getting your hopes up for rainfall. And you can see beyond this as well into the first and the second week of May. We've got this really big hokeyp pokey rainfall event developing out here in towards northern Queensland. That would be associated with some deep tropical moisture. But the more reliable longrange forecast modeling from the GFS, uh, which has been very good in the last couple of months on the longer range side of things, again, calling for nothing and in fact a bit of a drier period developing for those that are getting sick of the rainfall along the coastline. It will be interesting to go towards early May. Sometimes we do get those big northwestern clanband features, but uh we'll have to wait and see on what if there's any merit to that delivering some rainfall to northern Queens or even central Queensstein. I personally don't think there's any merit to it whatsoever, but it is a new feature on the forecast models and definitely something that we want to be watching at this point in time. So, to sum it all up, rainfall targeting those wet areas along the coast and completely ignoring those drier areas inland. and the shower stuff is expected to continue for the next couple of days and probably the next week or so before the forecast gets a big question mark thrown over it.

[00:07:07]So, not the best forecast and not the best news at this point in time.

[00:07:10]Southeastern Australia, we're beginning to head into our winter months right now, which means cold fronts are going to become a pretty significant feature onto our forecast uh very shortly. And with warm waters into the great Australian bite and also around southeastern Australia, our winter systems might be more potent particularly in the earlier winter months of May, June, and July. So, we'll keep an eye on this situation down here over the next couple of weeks. So, if that's your cup of tea, then please do consider subscribing. But right now, the current situation on our latest modeling has this big high pressure ridge dominating the scene into the Tasmin Sea. Now, this high pressure ridge is suppressing any rain activity across southeastern Australia. And that's expected to be the story over the next couple of days. You can see pushing it out through today, that ridge becoming very dominant here into the Tasman Sea, moving over towards New Zealand, keeping things very calm and very tidy over there. Coastal New South Wales right down to about Newcastle and then eventually Sydney on Friday. does see a couple of showers or a patchy shower or two, but it is going to be dry throughout the remainder of the week through Victoria and Tasmania with a bit of rainfall piping up on Friday night into parts of South Australia. And this is where our very strong extratropical cyclone or non-tropical cyclonic system or cold front begins to establish itself into the bite. We're going to see a weak low begin to ride up here into the bite sandwich between a ridge uh to the southwest of WA and this big powerful ridge out here into the Tasman Sea.

[00:08:23]Definitely the dominant force out here.

[00:08:25]And this ridge is going to get sandwiched between the two of them.

[00:08:28]There's not going to be any real room for this to move quickly off towards the east or back towards the west. So, it's going to remain what we call in this context here quasi stationary or very slow moving. It's expected to meander around for a period of about 48 hours here, bringing rainfall and damaging wind gusts to the Air Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, potentially the Adelaide metro area as well as the lower southeast of South Australia. But it looks like this is going to be an exclusively South Australian weather system here. A couple of showers do make it into western Victoria, but you can see the frontal system kind of dives right down towards the south before it can slide into Victoria or even Tasmania in any meaningful capacity. And whilst a couple of showers and a bit of rainfall is a possibility, you can see for the most part a much weaker frontal system moves into these areas. But we're definitely looking at a period of 3 or 4 days of turbulent weather conditions down here. A an erratic track like that can be a sign of forecast model uncertainty. So, we do put a bit of a question mark as to who's going to see the most significant impacts from this or if there is going to be severe weather on the mainland with this, but we're definitely looking at a very strong and concentrated area of low pressure offshore from southern and southeastern Australia. Likely to bring some damaging wind gusts and the potential for some moderate force to parts of southern parts of South Australia. I don't think it's going to as adversely impact Adelaide as what this picture might be making it out to seem. We'll definitely see a couple of millimeters of rainfall in Adelaide this weekend, but I don't think there's going to be anything too crazy or too significant there. And that's going to develop from Friday. So, fine weather expected to continue over the next two or so days. Same with the Air Peninsula and same with the lower southeast as well. And then a bit of a question mark this weekend as to how much rainfall parts of southern Victoria and Western Tazzy pick up as well. But fine weather expected to continue for the remainder of those states as we head out into this bit of a turbulent picture. Definitely going to be a bit of a bite in this one though if it does get over land whilst it is, you know, kind of at its I guess quote unquote peak intensity. You can see those wind gusts there. It doesn't look like it wants to show them to me.

[00:10:16]Those peak wind gusts as this frontal system meanders into this part of South Australia this weekend. You can see those wind gusts uh in a few spots if I can uh somehow find the correct time begin to increase to about 140 or even 150 ks an hour here. So definitely a bit of bite in this one if it was to get towards land areas. So, some severe weather certainly remains a possibility for South Australia and Victoria as we head out towards the weekend. All of that moisture that's been impacting parts of southwestern WA with rainfall in recent days is now beginning to move out into the great Australian bite. This is not related to our frontal system that we've just talked about. It's actually going to be a separate frontal system here. In fact, the low is beginning to develop here just behind this very weak coldront that's going to brush up against southwestern WA from tomorrow. This low is what's actually going to move into the bite and become the somewhat significant extratropical cyclonic system, but for the most part, we are expecting fineish weather to persist across southwestern WA. Still a few showers expected here and there. And in fact, today and tomorrow, we could actually see some storm activity around the goldfields and then eventually off towards the Nullore plane and the UCLA forecast district. Tomorrow is definitely going to be the focus of that thunderstorm activity into the southern goldfields and then into the Nullore tomorrow night and into Friday. We're likely to see some somewhat robust severe thunderstorm activity as that frontal system really does ramp up. But looking further out towards the west, you can see that ridge really begins to build in through tonight and into tomorrow. That's going to keep things pretty calm and pretty collected. A weak front brushing the coast tomorrow.

[00:11:39]That's going to bring some cooler and more drizzly showery weather to the south coast and the great southern region. Not expected to impact Perth that significantly at all. And shower activity should remain out of the Perth metro area today. Fingers crossed. And this ridge here very strong in nature.

[00:11:52]well above 1,030 hectar pascals when it moves south of uh southwestern WA and that's expected to start next week off very fine and calm indeed and you can see that ridge really does get itself going up to 1,040 hectar pascals that will be the dominant force into early May and big slowmoving ridging systems like this will give us an extended period of fine and calm conditions into early May and I did suspect that early May was going to be calm across Western Australia and it definitely looks like that is going to come into fruition here as that southern annular mode swings back towards the negative phase which won't be as favorable for frontal systems impacting southwestern WA. Still a bit more rainfall to come though, nothing too significant, nothing too crazy, but over the next 14 days, you can see rainfall accumulations will pick up across a few of these areas. Perth could see about 10 to 15 mm or so. uh eastern Australia becomes a very messy picture as that ridging really does create all sorts of problems on the forecast modeling out there. But you're going to see some decent falls here and there through parts of southeastern Australia into early May as our first somewhat significant cold frontal system uh moves into these areas. And just for fun sake, let's check on the tropics.

[00:12:54]Yesterday, we're looking at a very powerful tropical cyclone offshore from Western Australia. I haven't looked yet on the forecast models today. I didn't do that when researching this video, but let's see what the GFS has in early May.

[00:13:04]Has it still got that system? You wouldn't believe it, but it actually does. Out here, south of India and Sri Lanka, we do have a strong tropical cycle in here. Pressure of 978 millibars and that deepens down to 964 MIB bars by the looks of things. A very powerful tropical cyclone. That' be category 3 or category 4 proportions. Never moves towards Australia. Uh, and I would just like to say that the GFS forecast model does this every now and then. It throws out some pretty wacky situ uh scenarios and solutions at this time of the year.

[00:13:31]and long-range GFS. Tropical predictions, they definitely have that uh you know land bias and also that intensity bias. Generally speaking, the GFS is good for the longer range type weather systems, but for tropical forecasting, it is very hit or miss.

[00:13:44]When it hits, it hits hard, but when it misses, it also misses hard. And I feel like this is a case of it missing hard.

[00:13:50]But a bit of a signal out into early, even early midmay out here offshore from Western Australia that could present us with a chance of a tropical cyclone. I don't think we'll be watching this one very closely because I don't feel like there's any merit to it whatsoever. I reckon the monsoon is done and dusted across northern Australia but areas of far northern Queensland. That's going to do it though for today's weather forecast update. If you have enjoyed it or found it informative, then please do consider leaving a like and also subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. A special video coming out this afternoon on Lake Air and the recent flooding that we're seeing there. You don't want to miss that one. We've got some excellent photos and videos coming out in that video as well. Um and of course, if you are brand new to the channel, please do consider subscribing.

[00:14:26]All the support really does help and we're branching out into more different types of content through this winter period. So, you really don't want to miss out on anything uh as we head in towards the winter months. But, that's going to do it for me today. Have a wonderful rest of your Wednesday, halfway through the week. Um and I'll catch you on the next storm. Goodbye.