GULF STATES PISSED AT TRUMP - w/ Fmr. U.S. Navy Malcolm Nance

追加: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]on Alra about a potential deal that was about to happen according to Alabia. Do you think it's true?

[00:00:07]>> Well, the White House seems to think it's true. I think, you know, we've been discussing this for a long time and the two words that we have been saying for a very long time that we've been waiting for is offramp.

[00:00:21]>> Yes, >> Trump needs an off-ramp. And I think the Iranians with this what's called a letter of intent which the Trump administration is proposing and that was sent back through Pakistan. The defense minister of Pakistan, one of their commanding generals took it to Tan and uh has the United States in a position where we're ready to end the war. And that's the money quote in that report is that this letter of intent will be an agreement that ends the war.

[00:01:00]And that means the White House, Mario, to me, this thing stinks of desperation.

[00:01:06]Donald Trump needs this war over. And despite Netanyahu wanting to push him, I think people who make real money, big big big money, have finally sat him down and said, "You're going to lo you're going to have a landslide in November.

[00:01:24]They're going to come after you." And all of the illicit gains that people have made over the last year, this could crash it. This could be the one thing that takes us out. no fuel, no helium, no uria nitrate for farms. You've got to end this. And Trump has been really reticent about that.

[00:01:46]>> But clearly someone spoke to him and said, "Now we've got to end this now."

[00:01:52]So Trump has to make it look like a victory, right? So now a letter of intent. And the letter of intent is essentially a s, you know, sort of a a surrender that looks like he it's a win.

[00:02:07]>> Yeah. Yeah. It's um according to Arabia has allegedly obtained what are described as a final draft of a Pakistani mediated US Iran agreement reportedly said to be announced within hours.

[00:02:18]>> The draft that was hours ago, but that was hours ago. So, and no one else has reported that. Only only Arab. Yeah, exactly. Only Al Arabia has reported it.

[00:02:27]Saudi owned Al Arabia. The draft includes an immediate comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts, mutual commitment not to target infrastructure, guaranteed freedom of navigation in the Gulf and straight home does not say no fees and a joint monitoring mechanism.

[00:02:42]Sanctions would be gradually lifted in exchange for Iran's adherence. Doesn't say anything about the nuclear program with negotiations on outstanding issues to begin within seven days. So it's exactly what Iran's been requesting.

[00:02:54]Let's talk about the nuclear program later. We control the hummus. Let's end the war. It's exactly what Iran's been saying for weeks. And according to Al Arabia, unconfirmed Saudi owned the oil markets, the markets, they don't respond much to this news. But um according to because the markets are just exhausted from leaks and news, but according to Alarabia, it seems that according to them that a deal is near and it's in line with what Trump was saying a couple of days ago of the not he was saying, what reports were saying, Axious and others about a fight between Trump and Netanyahu.

[00:03:24]>> Yeah. Yeah. I had a big long discussion about that this morning. But this rings true and it I mean, you know, we've had this false alarm going the whole time and the Iranians come back and they go, "We never said that." And that's aspirational on Donald Trump's side. Um, this feels better because it's a single sheet of paper and all this sheet of paper says is we agree on these points.

[00:03:54]There will be this letter will constitute an end of hostilities. That's important because for the Geneva Convention and of course for US laws the hostilities are over. The USIran war will end on whatever day it will be 85 86 87 because technically ceasefire doesn't count right ceasefire is just a pause in combat operations and then the war will be over. the markets will explode, right? Every dollar that's been lost uh due to the fluctuations in the market, but the cautious analysts will let you know that you could open up every oil pipeline right now and fill every ship.

[00:04:41]It's still going to take us two to three months to get to where we can start refilling the empty tanks. And and so we're still going to see pain, but Trump likes spectacle and he wants the spectacle of a victory. He can say, "I'm bringing the Iranians have opened the straight of Hormuz. Therefore, the blockade is over. All the US ships are coming home except for, you know, the USS George Herbert Walker Bush because it just got there, right? You got 2,500 Marines that have been out there for almost 12 weeks, no port visits, right?

[00:05:21]So, they're going to come home and and it'll be a joyous celebration. US fighters and tankers will come home and he will play up the spectacles of them landing in the United States and he will try to make it look like quantity of bombs equals victory. That's Pete Hex's metric for this war, right? We dropped x number of bombs. We destroyed 15,000 targets. Victory. We got the Iranians to agree to open the straight of Hormuz the way it was the day before we started bombing.

[00:05:53]>> No.

[00:05:53]>> And now agreed.

[00:05:54]>> Yeah.

[00:05:55]>> You saw the CNN report that it will take Iran months to rebuild their military capabilities, not years. Months.

[00:06:01]>> Yeah, of course. Well, I mean, they're talking about the manufacturing process of drones. We've talked about this that the drones are being built in garages now.

[00:06:09]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. you know this you've you've accelerated a country and and this is one of the victory conditions that Trump will not be able to grow over. I think he thinks he can control the media narrative enough to where people will believe him. But the what he can't do is stop every mom and pop garage in Iran right now receiving a$1,000 contract to put these pieces together of drones right left, right, and center. There will never be, and we've we've said this on this program many times, uh there will never be centralized manufacturing of nothing in Iran again. their defense production will go underground there, you know, and the US wanted this as as one of their their their points was all nuclear programs, all nuclear materials, anything doing with ballistic missiles had to be above ground, right? They're not getting that. So now we if we get a letter of intent, you get the straight of Hormos open, the blockades lifted, sanctions will be gradually lifted. That is the Arab states right there. They know how to negotiate with with in their camel souk, as I like to say, right?

[00:07:28]They know that you want money. We have money. A lot of your money is in our banks. We'll convince Washington over time as the tankers flow in and out to give you your money. But then 30-day negotiation period starts on serious things. That is never going to be done.

[00:07:50]There will never be a JCPOA 2.0 that was better than the original one. But it takes doesn't matter. Trump can say the war is over and the markets will go back and the stock market will go up another thousand points and he'll he'll claim that he's the greatest genius in uh political history.

[00:08:09]Now on the on the other side of the reporting we're seeing that um Assamir the leader of Pakistan was meant to fly to Iran to deliver a message. He canceled that trip.

[00:08:18]>> We have Reuters reported that Mushtabaka Kame ordered Iran to not not give up any enriched uranium not to ship any of it outside the country. Hours later Alazer said that report is false according to Iranian sources. So had conflicting reports on this one. Iranian media said that the latest US proposal has reduced the gaps between both sides. But they also said um I didn't write it down.

[00:08:42]They also said something along the lines that um but there's still certain disagreements and we are ready for the for the war to proceed at any time. And in the morning they also threatened there was a threat to strike US bases or yeah US bases in Romania, Greece and Germany in case of renewed conflict.

[00:08:59]That came out today as well. I don't think the Iranians said that they would hit that. I think that was an analysis.

[00:09:05]They said that they would hit they would hit US facilities outside of the Gulf region. And because of the ballistic missile circular range, uh that would be the US base at Larnica Cypress, which they've already hit Acuri, not at Lornica, at Acriteri, they already hit it with drones, right? The U2 uh TR1 spy plane hanger went right through it. Um, they could hit the US bases in Romania using their Corormchar 4 ballistic missiles. Uh, they could hit Greece. I mean, you know, but >> they could they could reach they could reach Romania.

[00:09:39]>> Yeah. Okay. Remember, when you're looking at a map, you're looking at a flat thing, right? As the Earth curves, Iran is closer to Romania than it is to Italy.

[00:09:53]Okay. So, yeah, you can fire that far.

[00:09:56]That missile has, I think, a 5,000 km range. So, yeah. And don't forget, >> how far is Diego How far is Diego Garcia from Iran?

[00:10:03]>> 7,000 km, I think. Don't forget what they did was they put two ballistic missile sections together and that's why it failed mid-flight. That shot that was sort of an experimental shot.

[00:10:15]>> That's the one to Diego Garcia, >> right? That almost went to Diego and it broke apart in mid-flight.

[00:10:22]But that's why we keep a f a frigot down there with surfacetoair missiles just in case they actually can take a shot down there. I've been on Diego. Oh my god, that is a hot little tiny sliver of an island. If you hit anything down there, it's pure luck.

[00:10:45]Um I'm just trying to find that report from Iran. Um, there's a lot of people obviously saying what they've said before. We've we've been here before and a deal wasn't reached time and time again.

[00:10:57]>> Do you think this time is different?

[00:11:00]>> I you know, you know how pessimistic I am, right?

[00:11:02]>> You are. Yeah. That's the first time you're optimistic, which is really >> pessimistic. God, this is exciting.

[00:11:07]>> This time feels right. All the components of it have a have a tinge of desperation about them. Like you could almost hear Trump saying, "I really need to end this. I really need to end this >> because the bluster that he had last week and then that intervention that was done by the Saudis, the Qataris, you know, the Bahinis and and the Amiradis.

[00:11:34]I'm not sure so much about the Amiradis.

[00:11:36]They I think they just spelled it out.

[00:11:38]We can't go any further now.

[00:11:43]>> Stop listening to Netanyahu. stop threatening to this. Get this done. And then if he sits down with his moneymen, right, sits down with Bennett, sits down, you know, uh with um uh Nutleck uh Lutnik Lutnik Lutnik >> and Kushner and stuff.

[00:12:03]>> Then they say, "Hey, listen. The global economy is going to crack here. Fourth of July weekend's going to be $7 a gallon gasoline. Call it a victory. Take an off-ramp." and the fact that they're willing to have a letter of intent, not a ceasefire agreement, not a a comprehensive, remember when he was demanding unconditional surrender, >> then he changed it to negotiated end to the war in which you give up your uranium. the the fact that the discussion point now says that Trump's demand a week ago was all uranium must be turned over to the United States.

[00:12:44]That's why I believe that the Mujabal Khamei statement is true because that that has to come out of Kamei's mouth.

[00:12:52]We are never turning this over to any foreign country. Well, they did it for the JCPOA. They gave up 200 tons.

[00:13:01]>> Yeah, but you're saying you're saying Trump will accept no uranium leaving Iran.

[00:13:06]>> No, I'm saying Trump desperately needs this single piece of paper calling an end to the war, opening of the Straight of Hormuz, end to the blockade, and he can walk away and call this a victory.

[00:13:19]And the rest will be lost to negotiations that'll take months >> and maybe even years. could be could could end up by the time these negoti some sort of deal is reached months later on the nuclear program people would have moved on to such an extent that any deal wouldn't matter anymore.

[00:13:36]>> Yeah, he doesn't care. This is Trump thinks in short terms. He's not Netanyahu, right? He's not thinking decades. and