El Niño 2026 : Will this one be the STRONGEST in recorded history?

Ajouté : 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]Over the last few weeks, while most of us have  been trying to navigate our way through an almost overwhelming Tsunami of ‘Breaking’ news about  world events, the global climate emergency, which has no regard whatsoever for the vicissitudes of  geopolitics, driven as it is by the fundamental laws of physics, continues to rumble on, becoming  an ever more serious threat as every day goes by.

[00:00:24]A familiar but very powerful phenomenon  that affects our climate, and which I’ve talked about many times on this channel,  is the ENSO system in the Pacific Ocean, and specifically the El Niño phase of that  system. In attempting to keep up with world events that nowadays seem to change radically  on an hourly basis, you could be forgiven for having missed recent reports suggesting we  may right now once again be heading towards a potentially record-breaking El Niño event Some reports go further, suggesting a so-called “super El Niño” could emerge later this year, peak  in early 2027, and push global temperatures to new extremes, with devastating consequences that the  world could well do without just at the moment.

[00:01:09]But forecasts like these are not always  accurate are they? Not because the forecasters are disingenuous or corrupt, but  because complex weather systems like these are extremely difficult to model accurately  over extended periods into the future.

[00:01:26]So, the question today is how much of  the reporting is actually supported by the science, and how much of it is perhaps  straying a little ahead of the evidence?

[00:01:35]And when I did some digging into that  question I started to realise that the answer is quite nuanced, pretty fascinating,  and still just a little bit disturbing.

[00:01:50]Hello and welcome to Just Have a Think, If you’re a long term viewer of the channel you’ll know that I’ve made several attempts at  explaining the extremely complex physics of the ENSO system in various videos over the years.  Rather than regurgitate all of that information here, I’ve left a link in the description  section below to the most comprehensive of those explainers. So if the whole concept is new  to you, I recommend pausing here and clicking that link to jump back and start there. To understand what’s going on right now, we obviously need to start in the Pacific Ocean. For the past couple of years, the climate system has been in a La Niña phase. That’s  the cooler counterpart to El Niño, driven by stronger-than-usual trade winds that  push warm surface water westward, allowing cooler water to rise in the eastern Pacific. But that pattern is apparently now breaking down.

[00:02:45]According to the latest outlooks from  NOAA and other forecasting centres, La Niña conditions are weakening, and the  system is transitioning toward El Niño.

[00:02:56]And crucially, that transition is  happening alongside a significant build-up of heat beneath the ocean surface. Several analyses point to a large pool of unusually warm water sitting below the  surface in the western Pacific. That heat can propagate eastward in the form of  what are known as Kelvin waves… effectively pulses of warm water moving along the equator. When those waves reach the eastern Pacific, they can help trigger and amplify  El Niño conditions at the surface.

[00:03:26]Essentially, what the scientists are  telling us is that the system is primed.

[00:03:31]The question is not whether El Niño is  coming. The question is how strong and how destructive will it be when it arrives. Before we get stuck into the details though, I’m very much hoping you might take a couple of  seconds to click the like and subscribe buttons just down here. It costs you absolutely nothing  at all but it means this channel has a better chance of being noticed by the YouTube  algorithm ahead of all the AI slop that’s flooding the platform right now. If you’ve already  subscribed then you have my eternal gratitude, and if you haven’t yet subscribed then you  would HAVE my eternal gratitude if you did!

[00:04:08]So, anyway, there does seem to be some  divergence in the way the data on the current state of the ENSO system are being  assessed and reported on by the various organisations, institutes and media outlets If you look at the more cautious, research-led assessments… the message is quite clear. An El Niño IS likely to develop during the summer of 2026, and it’s likely to persist into the  end of the year. And yes, there is a possibility that it COULD become strong… even very strong. But of course, saying it COULD develop that way is not the same as saying it will develop that way. One of the key challenges here is something known as the “spring predictability barrier.” It’s  apparently a well-known limitation in climate forecasting. During the northern hemisphere  spring, the Pacific system becomes particularly difficult to predict with high confidence. Forecast models tend to diverge more widely during this period, especially when it  comes to the strength of a future El Niño.

[00:05:10]And that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now. In other words… we’re not looking at a clear, high-confidence signal for  a record-breaking event.

[00:05:18]We’re looking at a system with  multiple plausible pathways.

[00:05:23]So why are so many headlines focusing on the  most extreme outcome? Well partly because that’s just the world we live in now, but partly  because strong El Niño events really can be very consequential indeed for the lives  of billions of people all over the world.

[00:05:38]They can shift jet streams, alter rainfall  patterns, and change the behaviour of tropical cyclones across different ocean basins. And importantly, El Niño events tend to add a significant boost to global temperatures  because they release heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, effectively supercharging  the background warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Several of the recent reports highlight this point quite clearly. A strong El Niño peaking in late 2026 could make 2027 one of the hottest years  ever recorded… potentially even the hottest.

[00:06:14]So, from a climate perspective, that’s  just about the worst news we could be getting right at the moment, what with  everything else going on in the world.

[00:06:22]But again, that outcome depends heavily  on how strong the event actually becomes.

[00:06:28]If we move from global averages  to regional impacts, the picture becomes even more complex because El Niño  doesn’t produce a single, uniform effect.

[00:06:38]It redistributes energy across the climate  system… which means some regions get wetter, some get drier, and some experience  more extreme weather in general.

[00:06:48]Here in Europe we’re seeing some headlines  suggesting the possibility of a “furnace summer” across the more southerly countries, particularly  Spain. And it’s certainly true that El Niño can influence European weather patterns. According to the UK Met Office though, the final outcome for Europe will depend on how  El Niño interacts with other climate drivers… including the North Atlantic Oscillation and  broader atmospheric circulation patterns, and at this stage, those interactions are just too  uncertain to pin down with any degree of accuracy.

[00:07:22]So, the risk of catastrophic weather events  is certainly real enough, but any reports making confident predictions at this stage are  probably getting a bit ahead of themselves.

[00:07:31]What the science is telling us right  now is that there is a credible risk of a strong El Niño developing later in 2026. That risk is supported by ocean conditions, by model forecasts, and by historical patterns. And of course there’s the bigger context that’s worth keeping in mind here as well. In other  words even if this coming El Niño turns out to be moderate rather than extreme… it will nevertheless  be happening in a climate system that is already significantly warmer than it used to be. 8:06 And if you zoom out even further, you start to see how this  fits into a broader pattern.

[00:08:09]We’re not just talking about  one climate oscillation.

[00:08:12]We’re talking about a system where  multiple stressors are interacting… ocean warming, atmospheric changes,  shifting circulation patterns all pushing our climate into new territory  that is totally uncharted in human history.

[00:08:29]And that adds to the difficulty in making  accurate interpretations and predictions.

[00:08:34]Because historical analogues, in other words  past El Niño events and past climate patterns… no longer fully capture what will be the  likely consequences of future El Niños.

[00:08:58]That’s it for this week though. A huge thank  you, as always, to the amazing folks over at Patreon dot come forward slash just have a think  who make it possible to keep this channel free from all ads and sponsorship messages. You can join them AND get the chance the critique early access versions of all my  videos, AND take part in monthly content polls, AND chat directly with me, by visiting patreon  dot com forward slash just have a think And of course, a massive thank you to  everyone else who’s joined recently too.

[00:09:22]Don’t forget to like and subscribe  if you found this video useful.

[00:09:25]And most importantly of all — Thanks for watching.

[00:09:29]Have a great week. And remember… To just have a think. See you next week.