This Could Be Bad (East) & Another Heat Wave is Developing (Central & Western US)

[00:00:00]The risk for damaging winds, well, it's growing as we head into Tuesday. We're also looking at severe weather as we head through the rest of Monday night into early Tuesday morning. We're going to talk about those storms. We're going to talk about the different parameters that we're looking at with the severe weather heading into Tuesday and we'll track the future radar as well. Plus, there's one heck of a heat wave that's growing out west and that's going to continue over the next couple of days and let me it's it's just going to be brutal here in the central US as we head toward the middle part of the week with temperatures way into the 100s. So, some really warm weather. Plus, we're looking at what will likely become Bertha here along the Gulf Coast. There's still some question as to the track. Hurricane Center sticking with the idea that this storm's going to hug the coast through Thursday into Friday as a depression here into Texas with some heavy rain moving toward Houston. So, we're going to dig into all of those details here today. Let's start with the upper-level pattern. A big ridge starting to take shape across the west. That starts to build east into Texas. It's also going to bring that heat across this region. And here's the deal with this broad northwest flow.

[00:00:59]We're going to continue to watch these disturbances swing in. So, I think there are multiple chances for thunderstorms riding up and over this ridge down into the southeast and it's going to keep the weather relatively unsettled over the next couple of days. We'll talk about that, too, here today.

[00:01:13]Here's where the severe weather's going to be as we head into tomorrow. This would be Tuesday. So, this enhanced the risk has now been pushed a little bit further to the east. Let's go ahead and look at what's left of Monday before we jump ahead into Tuesday. That's the damaging wind risk. Here's what we're looking like for the rest of Monday.

[00:01:28]We're watching the upper Midwest. The potential here for some strong damaging winds, some hail out of these, even some tornadoes. That's been the risk. There's been tornado watches, even several warnings that have went out. We're also watching some of these storms into North Carolina. And with the tropical system very close to the shore here with a lot of wind shear, change of wind direction with height, there could be a few tornadoes here along the panhandle of Florida, around the big bend. And I think you watch this as it moves east along the Gulf Coast. Now, overnight into tomorrow, our risk really starts to pick up here in the Mid-Atlantic.

[00:01:57]The forecast remains largely on track compared to yesterday, but heading into tomorrow, I think the problem's going to be that we're really going to pick up that thunderstorm risk heading into Pennsylvania, southern parts of the state, especially here along the Maryland border, into West Virginia.

[00:02:14]And then as we get further to the south and west, especially here into western PA and to southeast Ohio, this is going to be an area to watch as this activity starts to pick up into the afternoon.

[00:02:24]And the evolution of these thunderstorms uh start to develop as this line moves off to the south and east.

[00:02:30]Going back to the Storm Prediction Center map again, this is the main risk, damaging winds. But again, I think as you get back to parts of western New York, eastern Pennsylvania, especially right into here, you can end up with multiple hazards, supercells, damaging winds, large hail, and even a couple of tornadoes.

[00:02:51]And uh this is a problem heading into tomorrow. Let's take a look at the tornado outlook. Again, it's not a zero risk, but it's pretty high right in here. Just I wouldn't be shocked if we see some upgrades heading into tomorrow.

[00:03:02]More to come on all of this. I'll be on it. And then your hail outlook, this is going to give you an idea where the tallest thunderstorms will be. And they'll be able to tap into some of that cold air aloft and pull that hail down to the surface. So this is going to be a big issue heading into tomorrow.

[00:03:16]All right, let's go ahead and take a look at another parameter. This is the significant tornado parameter. I don't show this very often, but it gives you an idea of where the strongest rotation will be in the atmosphere. Again, thunderstorms moving into these brighter environments are entering an area where they would be more favorable for tornado development. You're starting to see where the highlights are. I I think it's interesting to see this all the way back into West Virginia and Kentucky.

[00:03:38]Don't get hung up on the tornado threat.

[00:03:40]The damaging wind threat, I think overall will be the main risk, but embedded in these thunderstorms will be some tornadoes. That risk hangs on through the evening hours, and it starts to push off to the south and east. Let's pop over to the future radar, and we'll time these out for you. First, we'll start with the storms that are ongoing here across parts of Wisconsin.

[00:03:57]Also, the UP of Michigan. This is Eastern time, so take an hour off for Central. These storms have been tornadic through the evening hours, so continue to drop off to the south and east through the overnight moving into Eastern Wisconsin. So, Milwaukee, watch these storms tonight. Uh Madison, all the way into Iowa. Some of these storms could get really strong and as they drop off to the south and east and then across northern parts of Illinois through the evening hours. These storms will move over through the UP of Michigan as well into the lower peninsula here through the overnight hours by midnight, likely weakening by this point, but there still could be a punch with some of these storms as we get into the evening hours. And we're dealing with some strong storms too here across North Carolina with some heavy downpours. These are slow movers. And then here comes what will be Bertha, likely developing into Bertha. The problem with this storm is it's in training. It's pulling in a lot of dry air here off of land. So, as that happens, it's really kind of gets it's coming in like this.

[00:04:50]And as that happens, it's helping to keep the storm relatively weak versus if it were say away from any land mass at this point. Now, heading into tomorrow.

[00:04:59]Now, we're watching these storms. They could uh they could get going early in the day here across parts of southern Ohio, northern Kentucky. Some decent wind shear with these, so they could get pretty strong pretty quickly. And then now we're looking up here into Pennsylvania, into New York state. Back into Ontario, it's not the most favorable time of day for thunderstorm development, but as these push east into New York, at least as the disturbance does, we're going to get these storms going here into western New York. There could also be another line of storms going here into New Jersey, way ahead of the front out toward New York into Connecticut. But here comes that what I think will be the strongest line once we get toward that 2 and 3 p.m. hour here from Syracuse south into the Poconos and then into central PA.

[00:05:42]And some strong storms going back here too into Kentucky, into parts of Virginia, West Virginia. These storms will be strong, I think, through the early afternoon hours. And heavy downpours possible with these. I think flooding is going to be a problem, especially with some repeat rounds of showers and thunderstorms. And these could be really rain-efficient storms, too. And I'll tell you one thing, I don't like the way these line up here across Kentucky. And and West Virginia and Virginia, and we may end up with some flooding issues across this region.

[00:06:10]And then as we head into the evening hours, we're watching the storms enter New Jersey, Maryland, uh Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts. Eventually, they'll start to drag off to the south and east, and some remaining storms possible through the evening hours, but the strongest line likely pushing through by this point. We'll start to settle down some. And then as we head into Wednesday, we'll do it again, especially here into Virginia. As this front slowly drops to the south, it's going to stall out. It's not going to move very far to the south, and our tropical system likely hugging the Gulf Coast by this point. Here's a look at your temperatures heading into Tuesday.

[00:06:42]Highs will be in the 90s across the low country of South Carolina. Clouds will hold temperatures back, but there's enough wind shear that it's going to be a problem. Take a look at this, though.

[00:06:50]Watch this quadrant right in here. If you get up into the upper 90s upper 80s and low 90s, you're going to have a lot of energy for these thunderstorms.

[00:06:58]They're going to be moving into a really favorable environment for fuel and keeping the storms going. That will continue into the overnight, and then here comes that punch of cooler air. You're going to notice it first across the Great Lakes with temperatures dropping into the 50s. We may even hit 40 in a few spots, especially up across Canada. And then here comes your warmth again, building across the southern part of the US. Upper 90s, close to 100, especially from Mississippi west into Arkansas, Louisiana. We'll show you Texas in just a second, but further to the east into Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, a little more cloud cover into Tennessee. Keeping temperatures held back a little bit, and look at these lows Friday morning. A lot more blue showing up as we get very close to the 40s in some areas of the northeast.

[00:07:40]Okay, let's go a little bit further to the west. We'll talk about your temperatures here heading into Tuesday afternoon getting pretty warm across the South Central Plains. This is going to be the next big story, I think, this week. It's the heat. Of course, we're watching what will be Bertha, but look at these temperatures. A lot of triple digits holding on. A little cooler for Nebraska and Iowa by Wednesday. And then look at this into Thursday. Still staying hot here across West Oklahoma, West Kansas.

[00:08:06]Uh I'm going to refresh this and I'm going to pull in the model from earlier today. This would actually be the midday run of the European. I'm going to take you all the way into the weekend and show you how that heat isn't really going to move a whole lot. Here's your temperatures again. We talked about Thursday. Let's go into Friday.

[00:08:22]Look at these numbers showing up across parts of North Texas. I mean, approaching 110, 111 in some areas, also in Oklahoma.

[00:08:30]Getting hot across Southern Kansas as well. And now we're building our heat back into the to the Dakotas by the weekend. So, more 100s showing up. A lot of widespread 90s by Saturday. And these overnight lows Look at this into South Dakota, Southern Minnesota.

[00:08:48]Might not and a lot of might might not drop below 80° here.

[00:08:53]If you look here along the Red River.

[00:08:55]Look at this, guys. Some of these lows are in the upper 80s. Highs in the afternoon.

[00:09:00]That's brutal.

[00:09:02]I think this is a big story.

[00:09:04]That's my opinion. Subscribe and come back if you find this kind of stuff interesting. I'm a weather geek at heart. Maybe you're like me. Uh don't like to see this kind of stuff cuz I know this can be really impactful for a lot of folks and looks like it's just going to stay hot as this huge heat dome sets up heading into next week. This may dwarf the heat that we've seen so far, especially the fact that it's just going to last so long.

[00:09:25]Across the west, some relief to the heat in the southwest with some rain. And heavy rain at that. Flood watch is up for a lot of the southwest. And there's a lot of warnings going on, too, by the way. A lot of heat-related advisories and warnings across a lot of the Mississippi River Valley in the central US. There's your tornado watches and warnings. There's several of them as we record this that are active across Iowa, also into Wisconsin, into Michigan. But, we left you here with all the flood watches going on across the west into Nevada, Utah, down into Arizona, New Mexico. Flooding going on out here. It's been a problem. There've been several flood warnings. And there's a lot of heat, too, into the low deserts here.

[00:10:00]You can see that showing up out of the National Weather Service. This is the Flagstaff map. Uh and a lot of flooding going on, too.

[00:10:07]Lot of flash flood warnings happening out here.

[00:10:11]So, that's what we're looking at. That was actually excessive heat warnings. I do believe. I think I got that backwards.

[00:10:16]Hey, it's a live stream. If we were editing it, I'd probably go back and edit up.

[00:10:19]Can't be a flash flood warning that big.

[00:10:20]Yeah, that's the extreme heat watch.

[00:10:24]Anyway, that says something for the southeast, southwest weather. Look at these colors. I think they're the exact same. So, those of you who go, "You don't know what you're doing." I mean, look. Flash flood warning and the extreme heat watch. They are very similar here. So, I apologize for that.

[00:10:34]We do have flash flood warnings going on just north of Payson, north up here into the Grand Canyon. Looks like we have got some flood advisories south of Flagstaff. I think that's near Kachina Village there in northern Arizona. Spent some time there. Know where that's at.

[00:10:47]All right.

[00:10:49]We've talked about the west. The monsoon rains will slow down a little bit tonight. Good news is, I mean, at least there's some moisture into the Pacific Northwest. I mean, there's not a lot, but we'll take anything we can get up into this region with all of the fires that are going on up into this region.

[00:11:02]Certainly some smoke out here, too. The problem with the smoke out here, it's there's not a lot of wind. So, this is going to want to spread here across Oregon, also into Washington.

[00:11:14]Uh it's looks pretty dense, too, in some of these areas. So, this could be quite impactful over the next couple of days as these fires just continue to go out here and the smoke not really going anywhere. I guess that's good news for your neighbors. It's not just blowing everywhere. But, unfortunately, if you're out here, you're just going to billow in the smoke for the next couple of days. At least. That's what it looks like to me, anyway.

[00:11:34]Again, here's your temperatures out west through today. We've talked a lot about that on the channel. Let's go into tomorrow. Really hot again into Phoenix, west into the deserts. Death Valley's going to be absolutely baking out here with this type of setup. Also across the Great Basin, it's going to be hot, especially into the valleys. Look at these dry areas of Oregon and Washington, especially in the eastern parts of these states. Highs will be in the triple digits, close to 110.

[00:12:00]As this massive ridge holds on, and even look at this across the far west, close to 100 here in the east western parts of Oregon and Washington. I mean, this is some really warm weather back here for this time of year. Just to give you an idea, this right here is a look at your departures from average, close to 20° above average across this part of the state. So, this is not common out here.

[00:12:21]We're getting pretty hot. So, if you're across this part of the country watching, you're going to be warm. A little bit cooler heading into Thursday as that ridge starts to build east, though. We'll start the heat up across the northern Rockies, also across parts of southern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, into Montana. The heat is back.

[00:12:38]Triple digits on the way again, guys.

[00:12:42]Let's take a wide look, and I'll leave you with this.

[00:12:45]Again, the GFS bringing this tropical system right along the Gulf Coast.

[00:12:48]Before I leave you, I do want to show you what some of the shorter range ensemble guidance is doing. Kind of taking this thing and meandering it. It it it doesn't doesn't want to drive it west like the GFS. So, I think there's still I think there's some uncertainty even with this track at this point. But, we're talking about the storm just now being near the Louisiana coastline by Thursday. So, this is going to be a really slow mover over the next couple of days. So, let's go back to the GFS again. Keep that in mind as it drives it west. There's still a lot of questions.

[00:13:14]We've talked about the severe weather dropping south with this front, northwest flow aloft behind this, moving our system through pretty quickly. Your front driving south, low pressure up here in the Canada, bringing in some northwest winds, cooler drier conditions as high pressure at the surface settles in, will dry out. Monsoon across the west, as moisture drives up from the south, south, that will keep the showers and the thunderstorms around into the afternoon and the evening hours. Again, the question is where does this go?

[00:13:41]Front washes out across the south.

[00:13:43]That'll keep the threat for I think especially afternoon showers and storms across this region. And with this type of flow, everything coming in like this out of the northwest, we're going to bring another disturbance in that will likely bring more showers for places like St. Louis, Kansas City, driving south and east into Memphis, Nashville, and then another system moving through Canada heading into next week. And as this ridge establishes itself across the central and western US, everything is going to go up and over this ridge. So, you got one disturbance here, one here in Alberta. Notice how that's probably going to move up and over the ridge.

[00:14:13]This one's going to bring more showers to parts of the Ohio Valley.

[00:14:17]The next one dropping in from the northwest across the upper Midwest and the northern plains. So, quite active across this area.

[00:14:24]Not quite as active across the west.

[00:14:26]Don't get me wrong, we'll have some monsoon moisture, but the thing about this area is going to be the heat.

[00:14:31]That's the big story.

[00:14:33]Thanks for watching the live stream tonight. If you're catching it in playback, thanks for watching. We'll see you next time.