Something Is Changing in Silver… And Most Investors Haven’t Noticed | Andy Schectman & Francis Hunt

追加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]is a possibility of the third sell-off.

[00:00:02]There's the three sell-offs in this continuation. We are still macro bulls.

[00:00:07]Let's be clear. This is a channel, the red line that I've drawn here that I'll just double up, is the one we expect eventually to concede to the upside, but there's room for a sell-off first. Now, does it come all the way to the bottom? I don't know. If we had the AI bust, which we'll talk about later, potentially there could be a bit of risking off.

[00:00:28]Um But, if if not, so you could go to the halfway mark, but in the long run, we break for the upside.

[00:00:34]>> I would be shocked to see it break silver break the 65 level or thereabouts where it was the last collapse that we saw, which as the BIS Bank of International Settlements called structural, not fundamental. Wasn't fundamental, it was the raising of margins into the rebalancing of the ETFs that has to happen every year the first 2 weeks of January.

[00:00:54]>> Volatility across the precious metals market has intensified debate about whether gold and silver are entering the next stage of a much larger long-term bull cycle. Sharp corrections and aggressive liquidations have unsettled short-term traders, yet many market analysts continue to argue that the broader structural trend remains intact.

[00:01:14]Recent price swings in both metals have drawn comparisons to earlier periods of financial stress when temporary sell-offs masked deeper shifts in global demand, monetary confidence, and institutional positioning. Francis Hunt, founder of The Market Sniper, described current market conditions as part of a broader continuation pattern rather than the end of the precious metals rally.

[00:01:37]From his perspective, gold and silver remain within long-term bullish structures despite repeated corrections and weakening momentum on shorter time frames. He pointed to the possibility of a third sell-off phase before a larger upside breakout eventually develops.

[00:01:53]Hunt emphasized that such declines are common during major bull markets, particularly when investors become uncertain about economic growth, central bank policy, and financial market stability. His analysis focused heavily on technical structures developing across weekly charts. Gold, in his view, remains trapped within a broad channel where downside pressure still exists even as the longer trend points upward.

[00:02:19]Silver appears to be forming a slightly different pattern through a falling wedge structure, which is traditionally viewed as a bullish continuation setup.

[00:02:28]However, Hunt argued that failed breakout attempts and repeated rejections suggest that markets may first experience another phase of weakness before stronger momentum returns. The discussion reflects growing concern about how broader financial conditions could temporarily pressure even traditionally defensive assets. If you enjoyed this analysis, be sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel, and share it with others following these market developments closely. We'll continue delivering in-depth insights, informed perspectives, and conversations that help make sense of the shifting landscape. Thanks for being with us.

[00:03:05]>> Good kind of structural number. A large amount of Elliott Wave Theory is built off, you know, five waves in three selling and two rallies. And in an essence, our 5,600 almost start, we had the big sells time and didn't rally as far. So, there was a degree of disbelief in gold.

[00:03:24]Gold went up higher, so the gold silver ratio would started to go back up again because gold outperformed on the bounce.

[00:03:31]But then gold got sold off a second time. We had another rally. This is a weekly chart gold dollar. Um and since then we've been grinding lower. We had an attempt to break out on silver that got rejected. That's this candle over here. I'll show you on silver shortly.

[00:03:46]And we're now in this weak and softening stage. And there is a possibility of the third sell-off. There's the three sell-offs in this continuation. We are still macro bulls. Let's be clear. This is a channel, the red line that I've drawn here that I'll just double up is the one we expect eventually to concede to the upside, but there's room for a sell-off first. Now, does it come all the way to the bottom? I don't know. If we had the AI bust, which we'll talk about later, potentially there could be a bit of risking off.

[00:04:18]Um but if if not so, you could go to the halfway mark, but in the long run, we break for the upside. So, gold bulls needn't worry, but we wouldn't be leveraged long trading now on gold. We're on a long-term investor.

[00:04:34]A buying opportunities at lower prices may well present themselves. So, something to bear in mind. I'll take you into the lower time frame on this.

[00:04:43]You might see there's a blue line there.

[00:04:44]There was a bit of a head and shoulder structure. And again on the weekly time frame, that's your falling wedge. So, it's slightly different to I showed you a channel on gold. In silver, you've got a a slightly different structure. The main part, there's your red line. That's the capping descending ground line across the tops.

[00:05:03]And we had a breakout that was killed.

[00:05:06]Gold didn't do this, get this far, and it never confirmed, and this got slammed. So, silver looked like it was getting away out of the falling wedge.

[00:05:13]That's the draw for the falling wedge, which is an upside continuation [clears throat] pattern.

[00:05:19]But again, we are still we were warning, wait for the three sell-offs. You've had the first sell-off, and now again you've had the second sell-off. We're waiting for that third that rejection is part of it, and I think you could come down before you eventually get up, utilize opportunity at an investment level certainly to stack. And then we have a break to the upside again. So, this could again point up to some demand destruction as well, and that's could see a lot of people selling whatever isn't nailed down including what quickly gets a bid and is liquidated easily. Sadly, the good assets that are liquidated easily often get sold first. Property for example is not the kind of thing you just jump out of, you know, especially a commercial property. While gold and silver there's always a liquid market for it. So it can sell off early only as the debt market gets more under duress and people realize that metals are the ultimate foundation of money not fiat and debt. We will see the bid come back in for the metals. So that would be my framing. There's still a potential for that third sell off and it depends a little bit on, you know, are we going to have a rough ride?

[00:06:33]It's sell in May and go away. We got a new Fed chief. He's sounding like he's going to ignore inflation or have a new measure that measures it a lot lower.

[00:06:43]>> At the same time, Andy Schectman argued that the underlying physical demand picture for precious metals continues to strengthen despite extreme volatility in futures pricing. He described the recent surge in silver prices from roughly $35 to $75 as evidence of a powerful bullish trend rather than speculative excess alone. According to Schectman, large price swings are often characteristic of the early stages of major commodity bull markets because weaker holders gradually exit positions while stronger buyers accumulate physical supply. Schectman also highlighted the widening disconnect between paper trading systems and physical bullion demand, particularly across Asian markets. He pointed to significant premiums in Shanghai for both gold and silver as evidence that international buyers are willing to pay well above western benchmark prices to secure immediate delivery. In his view, this reflects deeper structural demand that extends beyond retail investors and increasingly involves institutional participants, sovereign interests, and large-scale commercial buyers. A major part of the discussion centered on the growing movement of precious metals from Western exchanges toward Eastern markets. Scheckmann argued that large volumes of gold and silver continue flowing into China through arbitrage opportunities tied to exchange pricing differences. He explained that traders can profit substantially by purchasing metal through Western futures markets and delivering it into regions where premiums remain elevated. This process, often handled through exchange for physical mechanisms, has created unusually strong incentives for global bullion transfers. Let's get back to the video.

[00:08:25]>> Look, I mean, silver was 35 bucks an ounce last year, Adam, and and here we are at 75. I mean, that's wildly bullish, right? And And And And the same thing, I mean, look, this to me is is a classic bull market sign. And when you talk about early in a major move, first of all, you get the older holders who sell into strength, and and they're, you know, they're relieved to finally take profits. They can't handle the volatility. They're They have the same tenor or or belief structure that you just mentioned. Um and they're getting disillusioned.

[00:08:59]But if If the If the price keeps steady and even rising, if you go back and look at it from a longer perspective, it is rising, and with great volatility, not the way that we would all like, but it tells you that demand is far deeper than the visible retail market.

[00:09:16]Uh I don't know. What to me, that means physical is being transferred from price-sensitive weak holders to to the strong holders. And I think you could say the same exact thing about what's happening in in China. Now, you look at the amount of gold and silver that is going into China, it's off the charts.

[00:09:33]And I think that you could, you know, highlight that by simply saying in the West um not I'm not talking the way the government looks at this, right? I'm talking the way that the traders look at this with a, you know, a 12% or $9 premium right now in Shanghai on silver or an $85 premium in gold you know, look at the amount of gold and silver they've imported. It It's It's unbelievable and you can see that gold and silver are moving east. We know that. So, what about the VAT tax and I dug dug dug and the VAT tax is paid by the recipient, not the not the sender, not the seller when it leaves the Shanghai Metals Exchange. And so, you have Imagine if you're a a a JP Morgan trader and you you you take 10 million oz, you sell it at a $10 premium, deliver it through what's called exchange for physical in essence where you deliver it to to bring some Kong, which is a Comex contract, it's picked up by truck and driven to Shanghai at a $10 premium on 10 million oz, you just made $100 million. Or, you know, uh a a million oz of gold at an $85 premium, you just made $85 million. Over the last few months, the export numbers are larger than the import numbers. Now, >> Okay. So, you're saying now those aren't really >> Well, yes, because there's no distinction. If it's an exchange for physical, it looks like we exported metal. If we're sending metal for refining in Switzerland, it looks like we're exporting metal. And so, there is some Some of it is real, but some of it is is not as as it appears. So, I would think that this would be a short-term blip in terms of major exports and at some point, you know, there's just not enough metal to continue to send to fulfill that arbitrage. So, I think it's a short-term deal, but yes, we're still importing every single month we're importing a tremendous amount. And so, some players are importing and some people are exporting and some are are using this ability to stand for delivery through what's called exchange for physical where they take a COMEX contract and either deliver it directly to Hong Kong or to London and then take delivery around the globe from there um to their advantage. It's part of the rules until otherwise noted. So, it's not like the US government is selling all of their metal. In fact, I don't even think it is the government. I think it's private players trading private metal to become very wealthy. I would be shocked to see it break silver break the 65 level or thereabouts where it was the last collapse that we saw which as the BIS Bank of International Settlements called structural not fundamental.

[00:12:14]Wasn't fundamental. It was the raising of margins into the rebalancing of the ETFs that has to happen every year the first 2 weeks of January.

[00:12:21]Um it showed that the physical demand globally was far higher than than that price justified. And and the $10 level $11 premium we're seeing around the world also exemplifies that.

[00:12:33]Um and the same thing is true with gold.

[00:12:36]What you have right now is is the inability to continue to naked suppress the price of gold and silver because the rest of the world will stand for delivery. So, you'll see great volatility. I would be shocked if you saw a three handle on on gold and it would last a matter of seconds as the arbitrage would just gobble it all up.

[00:12:55][clears throat] So, I don't know. I think you're seeing higher highs and higher lows. So, if you if you had silver go down and somewhat try and test that low that we saw in January, I don't think it violates it and the same thing is true with gold. Physical demand is is far greater than the ability to keep it down now and that's you know, again, this is not retail driven. The implications of these flows extend beyond short-term price speculation. Analysts increasingly view the migration of physical metal toward Asia as part of a broader shift in global financial influence. Demand from Eastern buyers appears less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations and more connected to long-term wealth preservation, reserve diversification, and skepticism toward fiat currency systems. As a result, physical supply constraints may become increasingly important in determining future market direction. At the same time, both Hunt and Schekman acknowledge that volatility is unlikely to disappear. Rising interest rates, shifting Federal Reserve policy, and concerns surrounding economic slowdown continue to create unstable conditions across financial markets. Temporary sell-offs in gold and silver may still occur as investors react to liquidity pressures, margin adjustments, or broader risk reduction across asset classes. What remains uncertain is whether future financial stress will accelerate this transition toward physical assets quickly enough to overwhelm existing pricing systems. Or whether repeated volatility will continue delaying wider recognition of the structural changes already developing beneath the surface of global metals markets. Stay connected for thoughtful, data-focused analysis covering the evolving financial landscape. Make sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel so you can keep up with our latest weekly discussions and insights. We truly appreciate your support and hope you find this video informative and worthwhile.