Why Russia may be feeling a greater threat from Ukraine | Global News Podcast

追加: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Welcome to the global news podcast from the BBC world service. I'm Valerie Anderson and I'm joined by Vitali Chevchenko from BBC monitoring. Vitali on Saturday there is the Victory Day parade in Moscow. This is a huge day in Russia's calendar and traditionally a massive display of military hardware.

[00:00:20]But that is not happening this year, is it? And why not? because the Ukrainians have threatened to attack this parade.

[00:00:30]And this holiday, victory day, the 9th of May, is the biggest state holiday in Russia. I would say, Valerie, it's the pillar on which state ideology rests and state iconography, whatever. The Kremlin is using the past to justify the present. So basically what the Russians are celebrating is the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in 1945.

[00:01:06]Now the Kremlin is telling Russians that Nazism is rearing its ugly head again in Ukraine. Zalinski is a Nazi. His army is Nazi. That's the kind of message that Russians have been endlessly hearing from their TV sets, for example, for for weeks and months and and years even in the runup to uh the 9th of May. So, uh, think about this, um, holiday, this parade as one annual focal point that motivates Russians to continue making sacrifices and fighting against Ukraine.

[00:01:52]And Ukraine is saying, well, look, uh, there there are going to be a lot of Russian troops on Red Square. We might try and hit them with drones. The Russians have responded by saying, "If you do that, we'll hit central K pretty badly."

[00:02:10]>> What about President Putin? Do we know of his movements? Is he going to be appearing in Red Square?

[00:02:17]>> As far as we know, that is uh what he's planning to do. I mean, that's what he's been doing all these years. He turns up uh in in Red Square, delivers a speech um uh part of which normally focuses on past events, the glorious victory over Nazism. And then he uh normally mentions how that victory is applied to today, how the Russians need to continue fighting Nazism and and and continue, you know, in the footsteps of of their glorious uh ancestors. I mean, the fact that uh no military hardware is appearing in Red Square this time because of what the Russians are calling the operational situation, meaning the Ukrainian threat or maybe they don't have enough hardware to showcase in Red Square anymore. That fact is striking enough for the Russians because you know the Kremlin cannot guarantee the safety of that hardware. So if Vladimir Putin doesn't turn up in Red Square, that's going to be even more um striking and embarrassing.

[00:03:29]>> And what does this all tell us about the conflict at present now in its fifth year?

[00:03:36]>> You remember how uh Donald Trump told Zalinski in the White House in February uh last year that Ukraine doesn't have any cards? Well, now it seems to have some cards in the form of uh their drone technology.

[00:03:54]They've been the Ukrainians have been really good um or should I say skilled in targeting um facilities deep within Russia. Since February this this year, they've quadrupled the number of long range drone attacks uh on on on Russia and that includes Moscow. It's quite obvious even the Kremlin cannot deny it that Ukrainians can do it.

[00:04:26]They've been hitting um uh oil refineries within Russia, oil exporting facilities, defense companies within Russia pretty effectively. Um market data and um claims by the Ukrainian military suggests that uh more than 40% of uh Russia's oil exporting capacity has been knocked out by Ukrainian drones. And that's a big deal given that uh almost a third I believe between a quarter and a third of Russian state budget revenue comes from um hydrocarbons exports. So Ukraine is hitting what Russia has been using to uh fund its its war. So I would argue that the Ukrainians have been doing reasonably well on their own and with support from U allies in Europe. For example, uh the Ukrainian military is claiming to have been u killing and wounding more Russian soldiers uh than Russia can recruit. So that um means that at this moment in time, Ukraine is doing much better than half a year ago.

[00:05:45]>> And what are people in Ukraine feeling about that? I know that you've got many contacts there. What are they saying to you?

[00:05:54]You know, Valerie, when I was in uh Ukraine uh a month ago, my biggest lasting impression is that Ukrainians are desperately trying to preserve whatever shreds of normality they've got left. I know that, you know, the further away you get from the front line, the easier it is. But it's been four years and for them it's not a question of whether they like the war or don't like the war or they want it to continue or do they want a uh a peace deal of some sort. It's a reality of everyday life for them like rain or sun rising every morning. That's what they've been living with for four years now. More than four years now.

[00:06:44]>> So that's Ukrainians. I mean, conversely, do we know how Russians feel about this conflict which is still being described as a military operation in their country?

[00:06:54]>> Yeah, a special military operation. Um, it's um more difficult to uh to gauge public opinion in Russia because Russians know if they say something wrong in opinion polls, for example, they can be fined, they can be sent to jail. So, they're a lot more uh reserved in their public um uh opinions in voicing what they think about uh the war. If um whatever opinion polls that are still happening in Russia, if they're to be believed, it would appear that most Russians, the vast majority of Russians, about 70% support the so-called special military operation.

[00:07:41]But um looking at discussions in social media for example, I'm picking up signs of discontent. People are tired. People don't like it. What you don't hear is them kind of joining the dots and and saying, "Look, it's because of Vladimir Putin. It's because of him that we are having to pay an enormous and horrible price for this operation. We want this to stop. We want him to stop." No, that's not what they're saying. They're saying is that well this well if if you see and hear any criticism of the war it would be couched in terms of this has been going too long life is going to be even more difficult soon and also we're struggling without the internet. This is one uh very pronounced uh trend recently where the authorities have been um restricting um uh the internet especially mobile >> that's what they're going to be doing in St. Petersburg and Moscow, we understand this weekend while the victory parade goes on.

[00:08:45]>> Precisely. And that's uh something that they're doing in an effort to stop Ukrainian Ukrainian drones, some of which rely on mobile internet coverage to uh locate where they are and where they uh they need to be flying. And of course it affects ordinary Russians and it's so different to the kind of life they've been um accustomed to. The internet, mobile internet is part of their life as well as it's part of the daily life of people across the globe.

[00:09:16]Now it's it's going and and Russians have been advised to use paper maps for example. Are they going to like it? No, they don't like it. And that's driving some of the discontent with the war and with the government that I've been hearing. Vitali, thank you. That was Vitali Shvchenko from BBC Monitoring.

[00:09:39]Thanks for listening and thanks for watching. And bye for now.