It's Now 100% Certain! SILVER and Silver MINERS, Prices Will SOAR DRAMATICALLY In 2026!

[00:00:00]And that's that's what I thought happened in the silver market this week was that people kind of clued in that China is not messing around with silver.

[00:00:07]They've, as I understand it, they have banned uh uh exporting uh silver and now they're importing tremendous amounts.

[00:00:15]>> 570 tons or something. It was just for March. I mean, we haven't don't even know what they did in April. So there's, you know, we already know that, you know, there's export controls now in China that went into first uh first of uh January, which probably helped push things along back in January. So there's all these different things that are out there now that make this different fundamentally historically. And and I guess this is the thing. You mentioned what happened at the end of January and everyone's like, "Okay." And there all these people came out of the woods say, "Okay, I'll buy me I'll buy silver when it goes back to 20." Okay. um 19 January 1980 uh silver went to $48.

[00:00:56]By February, I mean like the next freaking month it was straight back down and a couple months later it's back to 10. Okay, so we wander around the desert for 31 years. um in April of 2011 it goes to 48 $49 rolls over the very next month and four months later it's back to 30 and we know we all live through what happened next.

[00:01:22]Well, we broke through 50 finally in October.

[00:01:28]So I mean this is I I don't know can you declare it the new normal yet? I mean it's eight months the price has stayed above 50 and has continued to move higher. So, uh, does that mean this time is different? At least so far it seems like this time is different. Um, you know, Michael Oliver is famous for, you know, he's been making these. I mean, he's been doing it a lot longer than I have. He's got his own uh proprietary models that suggest that $200 and $300 price. I who knows, maybe he'll be right. I mean, again, the the fundamentals are there. The fact the price hasn't gone back down is there.

[00:02:03]You got copper making these new all-time highs. Uh, I mean, $14,000 a ton, 650 or whatever a pound. I mean, it's just why can't all of this continue to roll?

[00:02:14]>> Look past the daily ticker. The spot price is consolidating in the mid $60 range. Markets react to inflation prints and shifting central bank rhetoric. This is short-term noise. We must examine the broader structural reality. The global silver market is entering its sixth consecutive year of structural supply deficit. The silver institute confirms the 2026 shortfall will reach 46.3 million ounces. Cumulative draw downs from above ground stockpiles have now topped 760 million ounces since 2021.

[00:02:52]This is not a temporary imbalance. This is physical depletion.

[00:02:57]Mine supply is highly inelastic. Over half of all silver is produced as a byproduct of base metal mining.

[00:03:04]Producers cannot simply scale up output to match industrial demand. That demand remains firm. Photovoltaics, artificial intelligence hardware, and automotive electrification consume massive quantities of physical metal. The paper futures market attempts to price this commodity. Yet registered vaults on the Comx and in London continue to bleed physical metal. Leverage cannot substitute for physical scarcity.

[00:03:29]Central banks face an intractable dilemma. They must keep financial markets liquid while inflation persists.

[00:03:36]This necessitates sharply negative real interest rates. Historically, this environment creates a profound tailwind for precious metals. Markets are slow to recognize major shifts. They cling to old models, but physical exhaustion is an absolute constraint. Disregard the daily volatility. Focus on the structural deficit. The repricing of silver is a mathematical certainty. It is merely a matter of time. Please take a little time to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications for more videos like this. Make sure to check out our other videos on the silver market and drop your comments and observations in the comment section below. Everything you do helps with the YouTube algorithm and immensely contributes to the channel's growth. Thanks and enjoy the video.

[00:04:16]>> Uh, I think they air on the side that they always air on. Um Powell was would almost always quote in his press conferences you know we have this dual mandate right Steve right as if they are equal parts of the same mandate the Fed has never treated them that way Powell certainly never did and I don't think Worsh will either the the one mandate is to keep the markets greased and to keep the wheels spinning and keep the banks liquid and all of that uh that's their number one primary job if you know if if it trickles down eventually that they can worry about inflation and how it infects a little guy like you and me.

[00:04:55]Okay, fine. If they've got the luxury to do that, their number one job is to keep the plate spinning. Now, whether that's through providing liquidity, you know, they they just ran this program that ended last month where they were buying 40 billion dollars of Treasury bills a month. Powell announced that back in December and it ran all the way through April. Um, so they're always going to be in there. That's going to be job number one. Uh to keep the liquidity going, make sure the banks are okay because the Fed looks at it and says, "Well, if we don't have liquidity, if the banks are in trouble, then everybody's going down and no one's going to have to worry about inflation." So, I think that's the side they on u because that's the way they've always done it. And so what I think it leads us to is a period of substantially negative real interest rates because nominal rates are not going to be I mean people talk about buyer strikes of treasuries and the 10-year note going to 5% and 6% and stuff like that. Steve, the US is already spending $1.3 trillion this year just on debt service.

[00:06:00]We just simply can't afford it. And the consumer certainly can't afford it.

[00:06:04]Right. if they're the average guy that doesn't I'm going off on a tangent here, but I've seen reports you probably have too, and it's probably the same in Canada. Twothirds of all people don't even have $500 in the bank.

[00:06:17]So, if your economy starts to struggle, a servicebased economy, because people don't have as much disposable income because they're spending it on energy and all these other energy related issues.

[00:06:27]And now all of a sudden you're gonna raise interest rates on them and you're gonna, you know, housing sector and everybody's credit card all anyway. It just doesn't work. And so the Fed Treasury combination under Worsh and Besson is going to work to keep interest rates low.

[00:06:48]And so when they do that, you're going to have with this inflation monster sharply negative real interest rates.

[00:06:55]We're back to kind of a situation that's at least analogist to the late 70s and that was a tremendous period for precious metals, commodities, you know, you name it. So, I think that's where this heads. The day-to-day stuff of, oh, look, today the bond market's selling off. Oh, look, today the dollar's rallying and the computers do their thing and the metals do their thing.

[00:07:16]That day-to-day stuff is kind of noise because in the end, I know where this is headed. And I get that gets back to how gosh isn't it amazing the medals have done as well this year as far as they have because again the bigger picture stuff. Well this this is a multiaceted answer Steve. So again reel me in. Um this week has been interesting and that I the kind of the driving thing for gold this week was I think at least that announcement by Modai in India saying you know we don't want our people buying gold for the next six months or whatever. Well, typically I you go back look at the seasonal patterns, you know, of Indian demand, if they think that gold is too expensive, they buy silver.

[00:07:59]And so it wasn't I mean, if I'm connecting those dots right, you know, if gold's going flat, even down this week, and then you had this tremendous rally over the last four, five, six days in silver, I some of those things are kind of related. Um, silver is also going up because copper is going up so well and that in the physical picture still seems to be very tight for silver globally.

[00:08:23]>> Uh, China had did you see those Chinese import numbers for >> Yeah. Yeah. And and and and that's that's what I thought happened in the silver market this week was that people kind of clued in that China is not messing around with silver. They've as I understand it they have banned uh uh exporting uh silver and now they're importing tremendous amounts >> 570 tons or something. It was just as for March I mean we don't even know what they did in April. So there's you know we already know that you know there's export controls now in China that went into first uh first of uh January which probably helped push things along back in January. So there's all these different things that are out there now that make this different fundamentally historically and and I guess this is the thing you mentioned what happened at the end of January and everyone's like okay and there all these people came out of the woods say okay I'll buy me I'll buy silver when it goes back to 20 okay um 19 January 1980 uh silver went to $48 by February I mean like the next freaking month it was straight back down and a couple months later it's back to 10. Okay. So, we wander around the desert for 31 years. Um, and April of 2011 it goes to 48 $49 rolls over the very next month and four months later it's back to 30 and we know we all live through what happened next.

[00:09:53]Well, we broke through 50 finally in October.

[00:09:58]So, I mean this is I I don't know. Can you declare it the new normal yet? I mean, it's eight months that price has stayed above 50 and has continued to move higher. So, uh, does that mean this time is at least so far?

[00:10:11]It seems like this time is different.

[00:10:13]Um, you know, Michael Oliver is famous for, you know, he's been making these. I mean, he's been doing it a lot longer than I have. He's got his own uh proprietary models that suggest that $200 and $300 price. I who knows, maybe he'll be right. I mean, again, the the fundamentals are there. The fact the price hasn't gone back down is there.

[00:10:33]You got copper making these new all-time highs. Uh I mean, $14,000 a ton, 650 or whatever a pound. I mean, it's just why can't all of this continue to roll, not like next week, you know? I mean, not like next month, but Steve, I mean, I you can craft a scenario where by two years from now or something, uh, you've got silver up at levels like that. I mean, especially we get into this late7s type of stagflation and negative real interest rates and yield curve control and all these other things. Yeah, you can see where it could all work out that way. And I I think at the end of the day, that's why I say I I'm always reluctant to say, well, this time is different. Uh but that's why price hasn't gone back down. I mean, there are number of things obviously that came together to have that rally uh in the last couple months of last year into January. I mean, there was Chinese demand. There was what seemed to be a pretty big pickup of speculation, you know, people trading the AGQ, you know, that double long silver ETF, you know, that kind of stuff that kind of fed on itself. And I, you know, if there was, and I I think there was, I guess, you see it in hindsight now, a a speculative overheating that came in that last week of January.

[00:11:52]I mean, price went up to 75 in December and then banged around and then took off and went to about 95. That last week of January, the dollar plunged further all the way down to about 96 on the dollar index before it started to turn at the end of January. And I think that last little move from 95 to 120 was maybe kind of a speculative blowoff for now, which if that's right, then 95 is a level we need to watch now as we go deeper into this year. Oh, we get to 90 yesterday, uh, Wednesday. Um, I think that's a level we want to watch. See if we can clear that. We were back to 95 when the war began, um, back in the 1 of March, end of February. So, it'll be interesting to see if we can um what happen we cross. I don't I think we're headed there. Um as the news changes as we go through the summer, uh it wouldn't surprise me at all if we don't break through 95 and kind of start filling in that big red candle from January 30th. But I I don't think it's uh imminent for people that are still looking to position themselves for, you know, all the things we've been discussing, you know, whether it's in the mining shares or more metal. I I think this is all coming, but I don't think it's like next week.

[00:13:07]>> As inventory drawdowns accelerate and industrial demand for critical materials clashes with systemic supply inelasticity, the illusion created by paper derivatives is beginning to fade.

[00:13:20]When institutional capital finally rotates from deteriorating fiat currency into tangible real assets, the resolution will be inevitable. Price must do the work. Let's get back to the rest of the interview.

[00:13:36]>> I I don't think any doubt about that.

[00:13:38]You just look at how unloved the sector is. And we just went through first quarter earnings and every excuse was made upon the, you know, most of these reports. This is a good reason to sell.

[00:13:51]You know, got to get out now because it's not going to get any better than this. Um, okay, fine. you I mean some companies are exposed to higher costs due to you know more so than others and and you know there are people out there that think with uh wrongly in my view but think that with higher nominal rates that somehow that's bad for gold and silver and that sort of thing and so that prices have peaked and so and that kind of is controlling the narrative at this point what my my thing is I think they're all wrong we had a tremendous rush into the shares over the last what year and a half, you know, maybe middle 2024 to early 2026. You know, GDX forever was like 32 or 33 and then it went to 118.

[00:14:40]Um, I think there's another period like that coming. I mean, again, I Hey, I'm fine going sideways for a while. I mean, that's fine. um you know tracing out some big bulls on a chart, you know, where you went down and gonna come back up and then you're gonna have like a cup and handle and it's going to break out again uh in the near future. So, I'm fine waiting. I think there will be another rush like that. You know, the old old adage was, you know, back in the that last big stagflationary precious metals market of 79 and 80 and that kind of thing. Now granted, there weren't a whole lot of other investment options back then, but the amount of precious metals in institutional and personal portfolios was like what 8 to 10%.

[00:15:23]You know, I mean, I'm a little more than that. You're probably more than that, but you know, [laughter] >> regular people don't even know about it.

[00:15:31]Don't even care. you know, I'll start thinking about selling some of my mining shares when all of a sudden, you know, uh BNN up in Canada or CNBC has a daily show about what mining shares you should be in. Uh we're nowhere near that. And so I think that probably, you know, adds to, uh the quality of our story of just kind of waiting it out and seeing, you know, giving it some more time. It it I think she was talking about gold. I think they asked her about just gold specifically, you know, and that's the old >> two things about that. One, that's the old thing, right? It's just a pet rock, Steve. It just sits there and collects dust, right? Uh why would I want to own that? Because it doesn't have any cash flow, doesn't pay a dividend, doesn't pay interest. And that's just the old um everything's fine. dollarbased assets, digital assets, everything's great because I can make more money here with all you know with digitized financial assets. We're we're I we're still not seeing this and you know this I know this what the general public doesn't view and certainly not the general investing public doesn't view it this way. It's great that gold just simply collects dust. It's great that it's a pet rock because it's a measuring stick.

[00:16:47]You know, it took 10 years ago it took $1,200 to buy an ounce of gold. You know, five years ago it took $2,200 to buy an ounce of gold. Now it takes $4,500 to buy an ounce of the gold changes.

[00:17:02]I mean, the gold is just the gold. It's the measuring stick. What's changing is your purchasing power. And nobody looks at it that way. Everybody thinks the dollar is the measuring stick. You know, I got to make sure I'm making more dollars. that the dollar is somehow the stable part of this. No, it's the gold that's the stable part. And so again, this realization as more people figure this out, you get more of these, you know, ditzy hedge fund managers that go, "Oh, okay. Now I see the utility of owning some of that stuff and now I understand that these mining companies, how much money they're making, the free cash flow part um at these prices." And again, we're nowhere near that hasn't happened yet at all. And that's why I think we've got such a great bull market ahead of us still.

[00:17:48]>> Yeah.

[00:17:49]>> Right. I I don't think any doubt about that. You just look at how unloved the sector is. And we just went through first quarter earnings and every excuse was made upon the, you know, most of these reports. This is a good reason to sell. You know, got to get out now because it's not going to get any better than this. Um, okay fine. you I mean some companies are exposed to higher costs due to you know more so than others and and you know there are people out there that think with uh wrongly in my view but think that with higher nominal rates that somehow that's bad for gold and silver and that sort of thing and so that prices have peaked and so and that kind of is controlling the narrative at this point what my my thing is I think they're all wrong we had a tremendous rush into the shares over the last what year and a half, you know, maybe middle 2024 to early 2026. You know, GDX forever was like 32 or 33 and then it went to 118.

[00:18:54]Um, I think there's another period like that coming. I mean, again, I hey, I'm fine going sideways for a while. I mean, that's fine. um you know tracing out some big bulls on a chart, you know, where you went down and gonna come back up and then you're gonna have like a cup and handle and it's going to break out again uh in the near future. So, I'm fine waiting. I think there will be another rush like that. You know, the old old adage was, you know, back in the that last big stagflationary precious metals market of 79 and 80 and that kind of thing. Now granted, there weren't a whole lot of other investment options back then, but the amount of precious metals in institutional and personal portfolios was like what, 8 to 10%.

[00:19:37]You know, I mean, I'm a little more than that. You're probably more than that.

[00:19:41]But, you know, [laughter] >> regular people don't even know about, don't even care. you know, I'll start thinking about selling some of my mining shares when all of a sudden, you know, uh BNN up in Canada or CNBC has a daily show about what mining shares you should be in. Uh we're nowhere near that. And so I think that probably, you know, adds to, uh the quality of our story of just kind of waiting it out and seeing, you know, giving it some more time.

[00:20:10]>> It it [laughter] Well, Stephen, you know, the math is the math, right? And as I laid out earlier, I mean that they're just going to continue to print.

[00:20:18]That's the only choice they have. You know, the next QE program and everything else that comes with it will be larger than the last one, even from COVID. You know, $17 trillion in money's global money supply growth in the last two years. Well, no wonder gold's gone up so much, right? They're going to keep doing it. And so, if the math I mean, we can talk, well, that sounds so crazy to say gold's going to $9,000 or something. You must be a lunatic gold bug. Well, like I said, 10 years ago it was $1,200. Five years ago it was $2,400. Now it's $4,800. Five years from now, why wouldn't it be 9600?

[00:20:56]And so we'll just keep playing the long game and wait for people to figure this out outside of just our little, you know, gold community and profit from what is a market inefficiency of people not being in, you know, valuing these stocks where they should be valued.

[00:21:13]We'll wait until it all catches up and then we'll have a big party. Spot silver is consolidating in the mid60s to $70 range, but focusing on daily price action means missing the massive underlying structural shift. Markets react to short-term inflation prints and central bank rhetoric. But the physical reality tells an entirely different story. Those who understand the data are positioning quietly. The transition is inevitable.

[00:21:42]That's all for today, folks. Thank you for watching and keep stacking physical silver.