Meteorologists assess severe weather risk using probability categories (such as 1 out of 5 or 2 out of 5) based on atmospheric conditions, including temperature, wind patterns, and frontal boundaries, to predict the likelihood of damaging storms, hail, and tornadoes over specific time periods.
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Tuesday 5 PM Broadcast, May 5th 2026Added:
Time for a look at your West Tennessee forecast with meteorologist [music] Brian Davis.
Last week, severe weather struck West Tennessee, doing damage throughout the area. West Tennessee Weather Channel and AMS certified chief meteorologist Brian Davis was on hours before the severe weather even got to West Tennessee. We brought you live video and coverage via radar in the studio. West Tennessee [music] Weather Channel will be there always. No matter how small the town or how [music] large the city, it's West Tennessee Weather Channel. We'll be there for you. Thanks for watching West Tennessee Weather Channel and good evening everyone. Well, you know, we had some strong storms earlier in and around Shelby County around 11:00 a.m. noon, right along in there. Uh, so that's about as worse as it got here in the morning hours, but now as we're heading into the evening and overnight, it's going to get real active with strong storms, a few severe storms will be possible. Let's go ahead and get a look at the current weather. More of a uniform, almost stratus looking overcast going on right now over Savannah. 66°.
It definitely gets more stormy the further west you go and you'll see that in the weather cams here. Uh Jackson got a little bit of an overcast as well. 66 degrees southwest winds at around 9. And Memphis a little more definition back to the west where you're in actually a higher risk uh than a lot of us here. Uh but you can see more definition. Looks like storms are in and around there are about to occur as we look there around the pyramid uh towards the Memphis area.
Well, let's get a check on current temperatures. We're in the uh mostly in the upper 60s throughout the area right now from Trenton, Huntington, Lexington over to Brownsville, uh Selmer, all coming in in those uh mid to upper 60s out there this afternoon. Winds out of the south, gusting at times up there to around 25 to 30 mph. The radar uh little more active to the north. We've had those storms roll through, but currently kind of getting a little bit of a break.
But that's going to change uh beyond about 8:00 tonight. We'll start to see things really start to ramp up there uh on the radar with those storms uh as that cold front starts to make its way in. And it's going to kind of stall out over us a couple of days. Here's our latest severe weather outlook. You can see it includes just about uh all of us in that slight risk. So, this has continually gotten worse over the last 3 days each. uh new outlook has brought more and more West Tennessee into uh a step up in the severe weather risk.
Here's a look at tomorrow and you can see we're still in a risk of most of West Tennessee will be in the one out of five tomorrow. So let's zoom in here and get a closer look at today's outlook.
Notice unfortunately most of West Tennessee is now in that two out of five, the yellow shaded areas uh for severe weather. the rest of us and not all of us were in the outlook until today. But uh the Tennessee down towards the Savannah area now included and all the way into middle Tennessee, Nashville, Dixon, Clarksville, uh down to Hoenwald and uh you know all of those areas now in a one out of five. But you can see the majority of our area in that two out of five risk for severe storms.
Wind threats going to be the main thing, but a tornado or two can't be ruled out.
Then tomorrow, uh, again, most of us are in the outlook, one out of five. It's not as high of a risk, but it's still going to be there. So, very active here over the next, uh, 24 hours or so. Uh, let's take a look at the futurecast.
Just hot off the press here. You can see timing at the top. Here's 9:00, 10:00, 11:00, midnight. Look at how active those storms are through the area. Then, they don't completely go away. Here's 8:00 a.m. in the morning, 10:00 a.m. in the morning. Uh kind of busy there and then again in the afternoon as well. Uh a lot of storms right on through the evening of tomorrow. Finally, they start to move out in the early morning hours of Thursday. We'll rerun that one more time here. You can see very active in here towards about 8 9 10:00 this evening. Here's midnight to 2:00 a.m. Uh going to be a very busy night. Now, any of these storms could be severe. They could produce hail. Um, in fact, the hail index is pretty high for this evening. I'll be showing that in future updates coming up. Uh, but just get ready. Looking pretty active now after about 8:00. That's when the severe window starts to really open up. But showers and thunderstorms possible all evening long. Look at that. I had to put thunderstorm clouds on every single hour in the hourly cuz it will be possible.
We're up to around 90% heading into tonight and again tomorrow. Close to 90% chance. So at the the morning hours, you can see thunderstorms likely northnortheast winds around five. That frontal boundary kind of stalling out over us. So out at the bus stop, be careful. You know that lightning will be popping in and around the area in the morning and again in the afternoon. We don't want to hear of anybody having trouble with any lightning there. So, use common sense and uh make sure you're in a protected area as much as possible.
So, as we head into today, we're uh way up there. Numerous showers and thunderstorms, highs up around 70. That frontal boundary stalls out, but a lot of us will be on the north side of that tomorrow. So, we'll be in the low to mid60s. Overnight lows tomorrow night dropping down to 48. Back to the chilly weather. Thursday, mostly sunny, high 66. We're back to 73 on Friday with sunshine. A nice start to the weekend.
Saturday looks nice. Up to about 80° with sunshine. More scattered storms back in on Sunday. All right, guys.
We're watching the weather. We'll keep you advised, but just be weather aware this evening. Primary threats or damaging winds. Uh can't rule out a tornado. Also, we're seeing a lot of hail indicated in the hail indices of the models and numerous amounts of lightning. It's going to be a problem coming up uh later this evening as well, especially that window from about 8:00 p.m. uh through about 1:00 a.m. uh overnight tonight. Take care.
Hi everyone, I'm meteorologist Brian Davis standing in the studios here at West Tennessee Weather Channel. We cover all 21 counties of West Tennessee. And no matter how large the city or how small the town, if there's severe weather in your area, we're going to be talking about you. Thanks so much for watching West Tennessee Weather Channel.
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