WB Polls: Bengal Exit Polls Predict BJP Win, Threatening Major Opposition Pillar Amid Saffron Surge

追加: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]in Bengal not I think let's let's leave it to to the >> to the women let's leave it to the women and they would they have already uh given their decision on safety security and other issues so we'll know about it on fourth so let me bring in Arti Jared Arti Jared if these numbers actually hold then we are actually looking at perhaps beginning of a new era in Bengal which will be a saffron era I mean going with the exit post data at at the moment to uh most of these exit polls are going towards the BJP. What will it actually mean politically for the party? You know, partic particularly keeping in mind that the party has been speaking about western India. They have been speaking about Orisa that it's an unfinished project which began in 2014 and finally that dream if these numbers hold will be achieved on fourth.

[00:00:57]>> So Maria, we're doing this with a health warning, right? That the exit polls may not be accurate and the results could be something else. It could go anywhere.

[00:01:05]Yes.

[00:01:05]>> Yeah. So, we're doing it with a health warning. Uh if the BJP actually manages to win in Bengal, it is going to have a huge impact on national politics because uh let's remember that there are now just a handful of states which are ruled by opposition parties in India. Bengal being one of them, Tamil Nadu being the other, Kerala being the third and Telangana being the fourth and you know a few others right and if Mabani loses in Bengal one major pillar of the of the opposition is destroyed is out >> and I think it definitely weakens the opposition nationally.

[00:01:51]uh what will happen in Bengal is a different story but it n in terms of national politics it's a huge blow for the opposition major failure would have disappeared >> you know I strongly believe >> yes that's what I'm saying health warning health warning >> no I agree no I agree with you if this you're talking about it in a political contest I strongly believe that in some way now we'll only know how deep that shade of saffron is in some way saffron politics has been injected in the state of West Bengal we'll only know how deep that shade is come the fourth something has changed. The mold that West Bengal was has cracked. How much uh you know will it reflect in on the 4th of May?

[00:02:28]We'll only know when that last vote is counted. But if it happens, if let's say the BJP comes to power, it's not just a political context and you know Mr. Gangali can also weigh in but over to you first Arti Jerat. There's also a cultural context to all of this because in all these years there's an ideological context, there's a cultural context. Bengal has been that wall that has stood against majoritarian politics, saffron politics. You know, hearts may break, but there will be a change of guard and era and a new era in West Bengal will begin if these numbers hold.

[00:02:58]Arti jarat.

[00:02:59]>> Yes. So again, we go with a health warning. Uh firstly I feel that Bengal is not as susceptible to majoritarian politics as say a state like UP where the Hindu Muslim divide has been very deep for a long long time.

[00:03:18]In Bengal that Hindu Muslim divide is not so deep. I would say that if the BJP does win Bengal, it would reflect really a desire for change and the only party that is offering that change is the BJP because the comi that desire for change has rides on the back. Look at their uh you know uh look at their campaign >> polarization polarization.

[00:03:43]>> How how else are they getting that vote there? No. How else are they getting that vote? They're not getting the 30% from the Muslim community. They're largely picking up if these numbers hold. They're largely picking up. They already have 38% the last time around which goes up to 55% of the 70% Muslim population if you look at that vote. So if they are going to go if they're going to manage that 5 and a half% swing which is needed. They're picking up all their votes from the Hindu population. That is Hindu consolidation at a level which has never been seen before. It may not be polarization because Priy please also remember that the BJP this time went out of its way to project its uh you know ability to assimilate uh you know Bengali culture uh it feeled Hindu Bengali culture Hindu Bengali culture culture yes but that's not >> there was a clear there's a clear divide where leaders on camera have said we don't need the Muslim >> you know listen I'm married to a Bengali And let me tell you something and my husband is a Bengali Christian. Okay. Do you know that his aunt always was Sindur? Do you know that you know I agree with you the dauja was saying I understand the cultural context. It's an argument not as a religious thing but as a cultural context.

[00:04:59]>> I hear you. I hear you with what you're saying but I'm just saying if the BJP was to win I don't see it as purely because it's a default option. I also because they're picking up they will pick up and consolidate a vote back in 19005 the partition of Bengal happened >> on religious lines.

[00:05:20]>> So for all that we may be discussing there was East Bengal that was created.

[00:05:24]It was it happened on religious lines.

[00:05:27]>> Not not just that in 194748 >> you know saw the worst communal riots.

[00:05:35]>> Yes. You remember Gandhi had to go there to stop those riots personally and he refused to move until the riots stopped.

[00:05:42]So you know it's not that it hasn't been there. There may be an underlying communal feeling but by and large I do not think it has infected Bengali society. Yes, if the BJP wins we may find that it is the society is getting much more saffronized than it used to.

[00:05:57]>> Exactly ma'am that's my point for the future. That is >> I agree ma'am I agree with you what you're saying. I agree with you.

[00:06:06]>> I would say that if the BJP wins in Bengal, it is partly because there is a huge desire for change and partly because also and also >> it's the land of Sharma Prasad Mukharji THE IDEOLOGICAL and yet and yet the BJP Jansen never took root in Bengal. This >> that's why I'm saying it's an unfinished project for the party. That's why they went to allow this time around.

[00:06:31]>> Unfinished project for the party. But I think even much more than that, I think it is also a destruction of a major pillar of opposition politics which for 2029 is very significant for the BJP >> and and a cultural ideological shift.

[00:06:49]Mr. Gang, I want to get you in.

[00:06:50]>> I think you have to see that.

[00:06:52]>> One second. I'm coming to you. I I'll just come to you. One second. Let her finish. Ma'am, I I we hear you. But you know, Mr. Gang, let's take the same conversation to you. Arti Jarat was also saying that at one level it is >> I'm I'm I'm totally in agreement with Arti G first of all if you look at the politics which BJP has played during the election is quite different than the northern Indian politics at least six to seven of the BJP candidates were campaigning in Bengal with fish in hand.

[00:07:23]>> True. True. which you will not see any part of India rather I >> sangi that campaign was for the Bengali Hindu that till now has been standing between the BJP as well >> standing I am I am objecting to one concept of yours that is Hindu Bengali culture there is no Hindu Bengali culture is >> I understand but you know it's a >> culture individually I may be Hindu or Muslim it doesn't matter but Bengal has a culture of inclusiveness >> I agree with you Mr. Ganguli I agree with you but please hear me out and bear with me when I when I if the BJP will come to power with a clear majority they are not picking up and as much as you despise these binaries and I despise them too of being Hindu and Muslim but they are picking up this vote from the Bengali Hindu they're not picking up this vote from the Bengali Muslim that 30% is not voting for the BJP that would mean they're already 55% % in with the Bengali Hindu vote. Once again, I know it irks you, but to use that word, they will need to maximize that vote to over 65% to garner that kind of numbers that are being witnessed in the exit polls.

[00:08:37]I'm just talking on the basis of that.

[00:08:39]>> No, you're you're right. But at the same time I'm say in a hypothetical situation if tomorrow say BJP comes to power in Bengal uh if if you look at the qualitative change also we uh BJP top leadership have brought uh in the last before the election they have brought in one new president >> uh as a party state chief >> who who speaks very good Bengali >> who talks about liberalism who talks about Raindana who talks about very I mean many things which the so-called rustic or little uncut BJP leaders don't talk but >> Mr. Gangali BJP leadership he's speaking your new party president of the BJP is speaking to the Badraoko Hindu or the Bengali Hindu >> who till now was averse to the BJP >> I don't think so >> you see many of the BDO's Hindu I know >> who are loitering in the most sophisticated clubs I found them they are more communal than the an ordinary Bengal and at the same time I've seen many uh people who most ordinary they you may not call them the elite of the society they're more secular so from the perspective of elitism we can't call the vadalogs are NPBJP