Likely Kiyapo developing in the Philippine Sea

[00:00:00]increasing confidence of a new tropical depression and possibly a tropical storm in the Philippine Sea. It is currently the morning of the 21st of July 2026.

[00:00:12]That is a Tuesday morning munaga for our Philippine friends Martz possible malakas naan from this storm system as it's going to bring in that rainfall from the south and west. Aquaci Kuya Robert. That's my Dagalog for today. So, let's talk about the impacts on how this could be influencing the weather out here across the Philippines, Yap, and Palao. This is the current ECMWF guidance showing it crossing just north of Luzon. But there is some differences between a few of the models, but they are beginning to consolidate a little bit. I'll talk about that too here in this update. First and foremost, where is it right now? Well, located towards the south and west of Guam. Great news for the Mariana Islands. This means it's going to be towards your west. You don't want to be impacted by yet another typhoons. Bad news for Yap and Palao.

[00:01:05]You are seeing the heavy rainfall and some thunderstorms out here already.

[00:01:08]This area is also right on the PR here.

[00:01:13]And uh this very well could be named as we go ahead over the course of the next 24 hours entering the P if it does become that tropical depression and shifting off towards north and west. So, even from when I'm making this update, there is a possibility that things could rapidly change over the course of the next two to three days. Do want to really emphasize that because right now this is showing this move off towards the north and west developing as we go ahead through this week, but maybe by Thursday and the Friday already off of the northeast coast of Luzon per the GFS and the ECMWF. There is still some uncertainty here. Definitely could still waver. It's not exactly going to be right in that spot, but that's where a lot of the guidance kind of indicating as it runs along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. That's one reason why this is not jetting straight off towards north. You have that ridging that's kind of pushing this more on that westerly flow. It is also being fed in by the enhanced monsoon. That's why I was showing there in that satellite picture. It said moisture. That was those thunderstorms coming across a good portion of Asaias, Mindanao. Even afternoon storms still being seen out there in Manila. And actually got some pretty wild images out of there too just outside of the NCR and PManga. I'll show you here in just a few minutes. But this is a look at Thursday and Friday per the ECMWF. Northern areas of Kagayan Elkos North day uh off towards the Batanis Islands could be looking at tropical storm strength conditions pericular guidance. the GFS keeping it a little bit further towards the north, but a likely storm at the very least out here in the Philippine Sea will enhance that monsunal flow for some, but not all. I want to make sure we emphasize that not everybody's going to get that influence of that southwest monsoon coming in just like the last storm. Some people were writing me saying, "You said it was going to rain." Like I didn't say it was going to rain for the entire country at the same time here primarily Visayas and parts of Mindanao with this particular setup but could shift towards the north across northern areas of Luzon and that's one thing lots of uncertainty at this point in the intensity of this because as we all know the Philippine Sea can surprise us out here with that Philippine Sea effect. This is showing the ECMWF now up to about 50 to 60% likelihood of a tropical storm off the northern coast of Luzon. And this is a Google deep mine AI model. It's why it looks very AIish here for you. That's actually peaking it up there at a fairly strong in knots. That's uh that's actually a fairly strong typhoon on intensity. Deep Mind though, mind you, is not very good at intensity forecast at this point, but it is very good at tracks. And this does show the track kind of bringing it out here in the Luzon straight between Taiwan and northern areas of Luzon. That's with the deep mine specifically here on Invest 91L. So yeah, this is an AI model definitely subject to change still experimental but do want to show that here that we have some of the numerical models and the AI model showing this developing and coming off here towards north and west. So I like to relay and show all these different points of guidance. the warm waters out here that are definitely going to be fueling this up. You have that moisture inflow coming in behind it. And as it starts around that subtropical ridge, it's entering an area of reduced wind shear. What does that mean? Well, means these are all signs that we're probably going to be seeing a tropical system here and once again bring in much needed rainfall across northern areas of Luzon. In fact, definitely enhanced chance of heavy precipitation even in the Kagayan Valley where the Magot Dam is at record low levels right now. 30 m plus below normal. Same over towards the Aot Dam.

[00:05:02]Very, very low. So, if we get a new storm development, there's going to be that rainfall chances first of towards the south with that monsunal inflow and then switching off towards the north. I wish this was a little bit further east.

[00:05:14]Don't know why my circle's off there, but here's a look at your broad circulation. We've also been seeing afternoon thunderstorms across the Philippines. I want to point that out, too. Check out this image. This was um sent into our pan watchers page. Pretty wild stuff. Some decent afternoon thunderstorms there. Plus, here in Pampanga, you can see this came in from Koma. Madus clouds. Now, not to sound pervy, but uh that's something you didn't expect to hear in the middle of a weather forecast. Um, but did you know that madus clouds translated in a few languages, including in Tagalog and in Japanese, literally translates as boob cloud. So, um, now you know, and you're never going to look at the sky the same way. All right, so let's take there's my dad joke for the day, but it is true.

[00:06:01]Little fun fact here for you. All right, southwesterly winds still bringing afternoon showers for Mindanao, parts of uh, Visayas here from Panay back towards Sibu. You're going to be seeing that on Tuesday heading into Wednesday. We're slowly moving towards the north, but watch our time frame right there as we look off here. This is Thursday and the Friday could be looking at that storm impacting northeastern Luzon wrapping around even a parts of a locals north day down towards region one and even into Pangan if that moisture wraps around on the west coast too. So once again much needed rainfall to a relatively dry area especially across northern areas of Luzon due to the El Nino. Now, not everybody is in a drought. I do want to stress that uh some people have been seeing rain every single day, especially in parts of Mindanao and even in the higher elevations out there towards Baguio. So, you don't really need a full-on storm system, whereas somebody said yesterday, we don't need a Baguio in Bagio. Yeah, there you go. All right. Thunder with a little bit of a wind out here for Manila on our Tuesday. Sunrise is going to be at 5:36. Sunset is at 6:29 p.m. Yeah, high temperature of about 32, low of 28, but the heat index into the high30s. And here's your flyover for your Tuesday.

[00:07:15]We're watching those afternoon showers.

[00:07:17]Really good portion of a size in now.

[00:07:19]Already seeing that inflow come in back towards the west out into the Sulu Sea.

[00:07:24]H staying mostly dry. But as we scoop back towards the north, we're looking at relatively drier conditions for Tuesday.

[00:07:31]But as I mentioned, by Thursday and the Friday, things could be kicking off back here towards the north. So, of course, I'm going to do my best to keep you posted, giving you these daily updates.

[00:07:40]But, you know what? If anything changes, if we do start to see a tropical depression, I of course will uh jump back on here and uh give you another update. Doing my best to always keep you informed as we watch this developing area. All right, I'm meteorologist Robert Sped, Aqui, Kuya Rob. Big shout out to all our Patreon members who support this channel. If you want to check that out, check out the link down below. I'm not going to ever say I'm going to put this behind a payw wall or anything like that, but your guys' support really does go a long way. As always though, thanks for watching and of course, stay safe out there.