James Spann's Afternoon Briefing - Thursday 5.7.26

Added: 2026-05-11

[00:00:02]You're watching the Alabama Weather Network.

[00:00:07]>> It's Thursday evening, May the 7th. I'm James Span. Alabama's weather finally calming down after a whole lot of rain and storms yesterday, last night, and this morning. Let's go right to the upper air look and we'll talk about what's to come. Uh again, the trough that a little wave that brought the mess that's moved on. We've still got broad troughing to north of here and the flow is out of the southwest and our surface front is stalling out near the Gulf Coast and I think a wave of low pressure forms on that front that will likely bring rain back in here late tomorrow and tomorrow night mainly for the southern half of the state and that's where the best chance of rain will be this weekend. The southern half of Alabama. Visible satellite view. North Alabama looking good. The sky there mostly sunny. getting some breaks in the clouds over South Alabama and the rain is gone. Uh we got a few showers and storms in the Gulf Coast, but things have finally calmed down. Even had some strong storms midm morning today down in parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties, but again that's out of here as expected. Noticeably cooler today. 60s for much of North Alabama, 70s for the southern counties of the state. And the watch warning map, a very quiet afternoon.

[00:01:19]So, here's the severe weather outlook through tonight. And again, we've we've technically still have this marginal risk over southeast Alabama, but again, storms are gone. Uh the main risk of heavier storms over South Georgia, North Florida, and parts of South Carolina.

[00:01:34]And then tomorrow, SPC has introduced a lowend marginal risk of severe storms pretty much along the Gulf Coast, Mobile and Baldwin counties in the Florida panhandle. And this is when that wave forms on the front late tomorrow and tomorrow night.

[00:01:52]Uh here's a larger look at the risk tomorrow. Runs from near Daytona Beach up to Columbia, Missouri. The area is in dark green on that map. And on Saturday, SPC has once again introduced a lowend level one out of level five marginal risk of severe storms over the southern half of the state. And that's for uh activity that would be Saturday.

[00:02:14]And we don't expect any tornado issues.

[00:02:16]The main concern with these storms over South Alabama uh to late tomorrow, tomorrow night, and Saturday would be from strong gusty winds.

[00:02:25]So, rain for the next seven days. Now, this does count the rain we saw this morning over South Alabama.

[00:02:31]Uh for the northern half of the state, 1 to 2 in. And again, I'd say for South Alabama, probably about the same. We've got the rain out of here this morning.

[00:02:39]So, for the next seven days, about 1 to two inches there.

[00:02:43]So, model fans, let's take a look. Here's the European.

[00:02:48]This is the 12Z run valid tomorrow at 4. And again, broad troughing north of us. Zonal flow here. A short wave that's over Mexico, south of El Paso, Texas. And uh for most of the state tomorrow, dry. There could be a few spotty showers near the Gulf Coast, but most of Alabama dry with highs in the 70s.

[00:03:08]So, this is tomorrow afternoon at 5:00 and you can see showers and storms beginning to increase on the Gulf Coast with that wave forming on the front and some of the storms could be strong.

[00:03:22]Again, the threat's not especially high.

[00:03:24]So, let's go to Saturday morning 6:00 6 a.m. Saturday. Uh, and this is the high resolution her and this is suggesting there could be a batch of showers and maybe a thunderstorm across the central part of Alabama. maybe as far north as Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Aniston, Interstate 20. That's to start the day Saturday and then Saturday at noon. The better chance of showers shifting back down into South Alabama.

[00:03:51]So, uh again, if you're in the Tennessee Valley, I think you'll be dry through Sunday. Huntsville, the Scholes, Athens, Decar, Florence, uh Scottsboro, central Alabama, a chance of rain tomorrow night and maybe Saturday morning. And again by Saturday afternoon, the better chance of showers and storms over the southern half of the state, especially south of US80. And there might be a strong storm, but again, the profiles don't favor tornado formation.

[00:04:17]And then on Sunday, kind of the same thing, the deeper moisture across the southern half of the state. North Alabama still dry. So Sunday, a chance of showers and storms for South Alabama.

[00:04:29]Not raining all day. Hey, and this is we stress the weekend will not be a wash out anywhere, but uh clearly the better chance of showers over the weekend, South Alabama.

[00:04:39]Monday, uh we might see some rain statewide, maybe Sunday night or Monday morning. Then by Monday afternoon, a chance of showers over the southeastern counties of the state. And then by Tuesday, we're totally dry. Should be a nice day. Highs mid to upper 70s, the near 80. Wednesday, a little feature coming down the backside of a trough.

[00:04:58]may be squeezing out a few showers.

[00:05:00]Nothing especially heavy. And a week from today, Thursday, May 14th, got that trough on the Atlantic coast. North flow aloft and we are in a dry air mass.

[00:05:09]Let's keep going. 10 days out, Sunday, May 17th, ridging building here across the deep south. And if that's the case, we're going to be warm and dry, mid to upper 80s. Summer will be here before you know it. So, this is rain for the next 15 days. And again, of course, the mean is way down. We've had the huge rains from uh yesterday, and they're out of here. Uh the mean is a little over one inch now between now and the 22nd of May.

[00:05:41]We'll check temperatures coming off the NBM, the National Blend of Models, an ensemble approach, if you will. And again, you can see that we've got highs in the 70s tomorrow and Saturday, then back in the low 80s on Sunday.

[00:05:56]Then we drop back into the 70s on Monday and Tuesday. And then we climb into the mid 80s by the end of next week and the weekend and just in got the latest long range guidance. Uh this is for May 15th through May the 21st.

[00:06:15]And again with that building ridge, you can see that much of the continental United States will likely see temperatures that are above average, including Alabama. So, I wanted to show this. This is a plot of 24-hour rain totals. This uh these are rain totals ending this morning at 7:00.

[00:06:35]Know the numbers are kind of small there, but the the big winner is is the Gump, Montgomery. In fact, I'll zoom in a little tighter there. Montgomery at 5.43 43 in. And these are observed rain amounts.

[00:06:48]And this is suggesting parts of a Toga County around a Togavville uh with maybe six inches of rain. That's a whole lot right there. And you can see that heavier rain kind of stretching on across the Black Belt over toward Demopoulos where they had some flooding last night as well. Get up toward the Birmingham Metro, the amounts are much lighter, under one inch across that Interstate 20 corridor.

[00:07:13]the uh Tennessee Valley doing okay. Uh rain amounts there in the 1 to 2 inch range. In fact, I see a 3.07 up around Hazel Green.

[00:07:24]And again, remember this was the rain that was ending this morning at 7. So, a lot of the rain for South Alabama after that, not counted here. But South Alabama still I see some three inch plus amounts, especially over uh Monroe County. So, some very beneficial rain.

[00:07:42]And hey, let's roll some Children's of Alabama Kid Cam. Love it. The little ones here indeed. These are the kids at Ardent Preschool and Greystone Hoover. Oh man, they love to talk about weather and I love this cake. Man, we needed that. This visit was yesterday before the storm started.

[00:08:01]But they they just love to talk about the weather and learn about the weather.

[00:08:05]We talked about how storms are good. We need the rain, a vital part of the water cycle. We talked about how we forecast the weather. hurricanes, radar, satellite, and a lot more. That was a lot of fun. So, all these kids at Ardent Preschool in Greystone, thanks a lot for a great visit yesterday. You guys are looking good. Tomorrow, going to be in Tuscaloosa at Englewood Elementary School. Looking forward to that. I will be on ABC 3340 News this evening. And don't forget, you can catch my forecasts every day on great radio stations around the state, including at Birmingham 104.7 WZK. Thanks for watching. Have a terrific Thursday evening and God bless.