Millions Are Being Told To SHELTER INSIDE

[00:00:00]Well, we've gone from drought to heat to now smoke dominating the national weather headlines as we move through summer. Been talking about it for several days on this channel. I'm glad to see other outlets finally pick the ball up on this because this has been a big problem across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, down into the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. And unfortunately, I don't have a lot of good news for us as we head into next week. The pattern is going to be stuck in place for the foreseeable future. and wave after wave after wave of smoke is just going to penetrate the United States and bring big air quality problems across the northeast quadrant of the country. You can see that running on the animation here. All of these wildfires up here in Ontario, just sending that smoke right down here into the northeast. We've got some fires burning out in and around the Colorado area bringing smoke to Denver and places in the four corners and also up in the Pacific Northwest dealing with the same types of issues here. As we move through the summer, our flow pattern certainly will change and this will abate and maybe we'll begin to talk about other things like the tropics. We do have a 20% risk of tropical cyclone development in the northeast Gulf, which we're going to take a look at here in just a moment.

[00:01:08]We got a big severe weather event possible tomorrow across parts of the Northeast. And we'll see how the smoke might interfere with that too. But uh certainly could be an allhazards day up here in the Northeast tomorrow. And we'll wrap up with volcano Friday. A look at geological and space weather.

[00:01:22]But right now, look at this air quality map. This is just very, very bad air.

[00:01:27]The highest category of unhealthiest air is seen right here in these very dark plum colors across northeast Minnesota, across the entire up of Michigan and even parts of northeast Ohio, including Cleveland. Really, really unhealthy air.

[00:01:42]Very unhealthy in the sort of next color down, which is maybe a maroonish type color, wine or whatever you want to call it. Pennsylvania, all of Pennsylvania, all of the thumb of Michigan, parts of Minnesota in and around the Twin Cities just north of there. And uh we're looking at just very, very bad air here.

[00:01:58]Stay inside. Wear a mask if you have to go out. Limit your exposure outside.

[00:02:02]You're going to be sent to the hospital if you breathe in too much of this air.

[00:02:05]It's really bad. And then unhealthy is in the reds. And then if you're sensitive at all, oranges and yellows, you see those uh those could cause respiratory problems in sensitive groups. You see some of that across the Northeast, Maine, and parts of um Vermont here getting a break. But boy oh boy, you guys have seen it up here too.

[00:02:21]North Carolina not looking all that great. Neither is Florida not as bad as it could be though. And then of course in and around the Denver metro area, Dallas and Los Angeles where you typically see smog and stagnant air.

[00:02:32]That's you're dealing with some lowerend air quality issues there. North Carolina, not too bad for the most part.

[00:02:37]Still have some yellows in the state.

[00:02:39]There's some greens as well, which means okay. But in and around my neck of the woods, we're looking at pretty good air.

[00:02:44]But uh could see some oranges pop up in here later today. So, just watch out for that if you're sensitive to it. This is the flow pattern that's driving all of this. And look at this. I want to show you a couple of things. I've got it zoomed out with the northern hemispheric view. See this big red area here? This is a block. We call this an eastbased negative NAO. This helps us in the wintertime sort of understand our teleconnection pattern. And generally speaking, you have a trough somewhere underneath that. And you certainly do see this trough, this blue area spinning across Quebec and eastern Canada. This is a trapped vortex that's sort of sitting here trapped by this big block.

[00:03:15]Can't go anywhere. And so the flow continues to just be from the northwest to the southeast just like this. And as that is the case, you're going to have little spokes of energy rotating around this big general blob of blue. And this is going to make it into the northern portion of the country. This animation runs all the way through next Friday.

[00:03:33]And you can see that flow pattern really just continuing to persist out of the northwest directed that directing that smoke right into the northeast. So we're not going to get much of a break. got a big ridge here in the nation's midsection that's just going to continue to be parked in place out west. That means for us here in the states that we're going to be dealing with very hot temperatures underneath this ridge out in the western plains, northern plains, and at times in the southern plains too, upper 90s, triple digits, things like that. And around the backside of that, we'll continue to see a moist flow and watch moisture get in here into the inner mountain west and the western areas of the Rocky Mountains. And we're going to see some rain there and troughing in the east means cooler temperatures up in the north northeast at least and unsettled conditions potentially at times as well. We'll look at that on the precipitation map. Here's your temperature anomaly map across the United States over the next week or so.

[00:04:25]Again, this takes us through next Friday. Early on in the period, we're looking at below normal temperatures in the Northeast, warmer than normal temperatures here across the north. And uh you can see how that animation flows as we get into next week and into later on into the week. Continuing to see more pushes of cool air with that troughing in the east with heat continuing out here in the nation's midsection and a little bit lesser here at the start of the period through Texas and into Arizona, Utah, and Nevada where we've got return flow, clouds, and more rain and Pacific Northwest. Not looking too shabby until you get on in toward mid next week and beyond. That's when you're going to heat up out there. In Florida, you're looking at below normal temperatures as well or near normal as we get on out in time. This is Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. See that punch of cool air coming into the east as that dome continues to persist out west. This is 24hour precipitation um depiction.

[00:05:22]So, we're looking at precipitation in 24-hour increments over the exact same time period from now to next Friday. So this is 24 hours ending Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. And you can see the areas that continue to pick up rain today here in Texas over into the four corners region, parts of the north northeast down here across the Gulf Coast states. And you can see just wave after wave of energy will proceed into the northeast. Looking at some pretty big rain tomorrow, thunderstorms with that. You get a break on Monday and then Tuesday and Wednesday you start to see more rain coming back in and occasionally across the southeast as well. And that will that pattern will generally continue to persist. We'll get wave after rain in these same areas through the Midwest and Ohio Valley and back into the four corners regions as we head on in toward next week. And then just to wrap it up here with a look at the total precipitation depicted, the legend is down at the bottom of the screen here, but the blue get you start to get into these blues, you're talking about a half an inch or more again over the next seven uh days or so. Seven, eight days. All right, so that's what we're looking at about 8 days out. A lot of rain up and down the eastern seabboard. Right in the lee of the mountains, we're not looking at as much, but you get just past out in the Pedmont areas up to the northeast, we're talking anywhere between two and as much as three, maybe even uh four inches of rain in spots. Some of this is going to be thunderstor.

[00:06:51]You can also see that same sort of pattern out here in the four corners area back up into the Rocky Mountain West where you're going to see showers and thunderstorms associated with that monsunal flow and picking up copious amounts of rain. Could see some street flooding. Finally getting a break down here in Texas over time. We've got a slight risk of excessive rain in parts of the southwest today, but not like what we've seen the last several days.

[00:07:12]We do have some rain out there and we'll take a look at that in a minute. But there are your air quality alerts in effect all the way from North Dakota back into Yeah, that's a dense fog advisory up there. But from Minnesota back into uh the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and down into parts of North Carolina, bad air to be found.

[00:07:29]Heat advisories coastal plane, North Carolina, South Carolina down in just east of Atlanta and then from Minnesota back into all of South Dakota pretty much and northeastern Wyoming. Looking at heat alerts out here, heat advisories. Going to see temperatures soar into the 90s and red flag warnings for wind gust. Let's just click on it and see. I haven't read this today. So, um, we're going to see some rain out here. Let's see if we can find out what the wind looks like. Gusting to 38 miles per hour possibly. Okay, so not too too bad, but still it's going to be windy and it's very very dry out here.

[00:08:00]Continues to persist. That dry weather does at least for now. And flood watches continue down here with a lot of flood warnings in and around uh Del Rio to Yuvaldi just west of Austin. These rivers are running high. We've seen a lot of flooding down here in these areas that will continue to persist for a few days as the river levels begin to subside over time, but we're losing some of the heavy rain, which is great news.

[00:08:23]I'll show you the radar in a second.

[00:08:25]We'll take a look at the satellite, too.

[00:08:26]Uh then we'll get on into the tropics, take a look at what's going on down there. Could have some action to deal with in the Gulf. So stay tuned for that coming right up.

[00:08:35]If you're new or haven't done so, make sure you subscribe with notifications on. I release a video every day and keep you in the loop about what's going on with the weather where you are. Try to hit the entire country and we look at the pattern and other interesting events that occur as well or are on the horizon so you stay ahead of what's coming. Make sure you like and hype the video, too.

[00:08:53]And most importantly, if I can be in prayer about anything to support you, please let me know down in the comments and let me know where you're watching from, too. That always helps me know where my audience is. And certainly appreciate all of your support. Thank you to Renee and Tim for very generously donating to the channel. And if you'd like to be a member and join some of the names on your screen, you can do that as well. Just simply join and you can choose from four different levels. Now, we're going to talk a little about the radar and what's going on here because we got a few showers up in the northwest. Got a few showers down here in the southwest, but the big rain has been over Texas that continues to persist. Very heavy rain. One to two inch rainfall hour per hour rainfall rates down here and uh continue to exacerbate the problem. But that will continue to to diminish as time goes on and pull to the west. We've got a batch of thunderstorms moving across the northeast or the northeast the northeast section of Minnesota today in and around International Falls heading on over into uh parts of Ontario and to Lake Superior. These could bring a few rumbles of thunder and a couple of severe reports this morning with the big actions going to be out here in the east tomorrow as that system begins to strengthen. And you can see that our high-pressure dome right here in the plains. And you can see the flow around that. There's a big blow up of convection down here in Texas. Look at this ring just like this. That is our flow. And we've got something going off down here in the Gulf. What is that?

[00:10:13]Well, that is that area of convection that we've been watching on the models.

[00:10:17]It is finally taking shape and moving off of the eastern coast or the western coast of Florida getting into the eastern Gulf. And as that continues to persist out here, if it drills down to the surface, now we've got our ourselves a tropical depression and we will watch that is a there is a potential for that over the coming days and we're going to take a look at that in our tropical update in a second. Here is the low pressure up across the north that is going to strengthen and move up in this direction, drag a cold front down in this direction and provide a focus for a severe weather event tomorrow. So shear is going to be picking up and we're going to see a line of thunderstorms, multiple lines potentially move through with wind, hail, most prominently wind and certainly could see a tornado or two as well. Got a boundary station across the north and then flooding threat continues down in the southwest as well as that flow is just continuing to flow out of the tropics and into your region as well. High pressure in the middle of the country. A lot of H's and L's on this map, so you can ignore most of those. I'll show you what's important, but that's how it that's how it rolls here on the National Weather Service surface map, but I like to show it because that's what we're used to.

[00:11:24]There's that batch of thunderstorms across the north. We've got some uh diminishing rain here in Texas. And there's the batch off of uh the coast of Florida as well. As we head through the afternoon, this takes us into the evening. Look at all these thunderstorms popping up here. Parts of the Ohio Valley into the eastern sections of Tennessee into the parts of the southeast. Florida, you're getting hammered with some rain this afternoon and some thunderstorms. Some of these in the southeast could be severe at times.

[00:11:47]Not a big severe weather outbreak, but look for wind damage potentially. And up here in Montana later this evening, too.

[00:11:53]Look for some potential wind and hail up here across Texas and into the four corners region all the way up into the north parts of the really interior sections of the northwest uh US. Look for showers and thunderstorms more concentrated around western Montana as well up up there uh near Glacier National Park and places like that. So going to see showers move into Wisconsin later today. A lot of this will diminish as we head through the nighttime hours.

[00:12:18]But look what's happening here as this wave moves into Ontario and over into Quebec eventually. We start to see uh tomorrow morning showers move into New York. Some thunderstorms not out of the question there. Big cluster of thunderstorms continuing in the Gulf.

[00:12:31]Not much activity out west. Just some showers in the southwest. But as we head through the day tomorrow, look at this big uh cold front begin to sweep in from the Great Lakes into the um eastern Great Lakes areas, north uh north sections of New York into New England.

[00:12:47]And as we get into tomorrow afternoon around 4:00, really watching thunderstorms break out. Lee troughing up here and the cold front will begin to move through as well. All providing a focus for vigorous convection and stability is going to be going up. Shear is going to be increasing quite vigorously. So, we could see some tornadoes with supercellular activity and then we'll see a couple of line segments get together and swing through enhancing the wind threat as is typical with systems this time of year. More thunderstorms through the southeast.

[00:13:14]Look, we're starting to acquire some spin here on this model out in the Gulf as well. And then back into the four corners and the southwest seeing a lot of heavy rain with some of these thunderstorms as they produce torrential downpours. And then we'll watch that line continue through the nighttime hours Saturday night. It will diminish in intensity, but we'll see that front linger back through the Ohio Valley. The only question mark is the smoke. How much deterrent of of a of a deterrent will that smoke be? It acts to sort of stabilize the atmosphere to a degree.

[00:13:43]And so, it will potentially play a role in how strong some of these thunderstorms get. I think we're going to see severe weather tomorrow, but the extent of it is still in question. But the pattern certainly supports you guys keeping an eye to the sky up here in parts of the Northeast tomorrow. It is going to be a rough rough afternoon and evening and then everything will kind of diminish. But look at that spin going off down in the Gulf as we go through Sunday night into Sunday morning and then Sunday afternoon. Going to be clearing out for most of the Northeast, much of the Ohio Valley. Going to be kind of a wet day in the afternoon out here Sunday afternoon. But back through the nation's midsection, Tennessee Valley, upper southeast and into the southeast, we're going to see showers and thunderstorms pop up as we begin to heat up the atmosphere. And that front will move through North Carolina and that spin continues out here in the Gulf and we will see what happens with that coming up in our tropical update in just a second. Let's go back to this map very very quickly. I want to show you the severe weather outlook for tomorrow.

[00:14:39]Heavy rain is problem today down here in the southwest and that could continue to be a problem for parts of the southwest tomorrow. But the threat for tomorrow that we're really interested in is the severe weather outlook. And that is going to see severe weather extending back from central Chicago all the way back through all of New York, southern portions of the uh northeast, including western um Connecticut down here, western Massachusetts, New York City, all the way down into Raleigh, North Carolina. So pay attention. Keep your eye to the sky tomorrow. Tornadoes could be a problem from much of southern and western New York, northern Pennsylvania, back in toward around Cleveland, Pittsburgh, over to Philadelphia, New York City. That's where our greatest risk of tornadoes would be tomorrow.

[00:15:23]Wind in those same areas, just a little bit more expanded. And hail could be a problem as well here and also back into parts of Idaho and Montana again out there. So, that is our severe weather alert map for tomorrow. Now, we're going to take a look at what's happening down in the tropics and see if we see better conditions for more favorable tropical cyclone activity down there.

[00:15:47]The National Hurricane Center has two areas of interest. One way out here in the eastern Atlantic. This is not going to be a big problem regardless of if it develops or not, but only a 10% chance of this thing developing. But here is the area of concern. 20% risk. That doesn't seem very high. Of course, Arthur wasn't very high at all either.

[00:16:06]And all it takes is to get that low-level spin going. Now, you've got a tropical depression. If it sits out here long enough, the waters are quite warm.

[00:16:12]We'll see a tropical storm develop. And either way, we're not looking at a massive hurricane. However, could bring some heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast or up the southeast coast. Models are continually split on which direction this thing will go. But right now, we've got a 20% lemon sitting out here. here.

[00:16:27]If you take a look at the SSTs, quite warm in parts of the Atlantic, but down in our main development region, we've got sort of a Ninia thing going on down here where it's cooler than normal from Africa all the way through the Caribbean. Not until you get to the northern Gulf do you find SST sea surface temperatures that are running above normal all around Florida off the southeast coast. So, anything that gets going in these areas, which is where our limit happens to be, by the way, could see some development. Development rather quickly as shear is going to be diminishing. If you take a look here at the GFS over the next two weeks, we're really not seeing too much of concern.

[00:17:04]Few waves coming off of Africa. Here's our cluster of convection. Look what it does. It gets it out here eventually over into parts of the southeast coast and then we get a low pressure going off but that's not until we get on out to about day 8 n and 10 something like that. GFS is really not doing much with this. We just see a low pressure begin to develop along a frontal boundary out here and then head up into the northeast Nova Scotia and getting on into Atlantic Canada. What about the European? What does it show? Well, it's got the little blob of convection down here and it really just kind of hangs it out, provides some rain, moves it back to the west. Then we get a front that comes through, sort of sweeps all that moisture up and along the co Gulf Coast along the southeast coast and on up into the uh um northeast. And this is Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday.

[00:17:54]You kind of get the point here. Nothing going off off of uh Africa. Just a few tropical waves from time to time get into the Caribbean, but we don't see any major action down here either, which is good news. Lot of dry air out here at the start of the period. This takes us into next Tuesday, Wednesday. Tons of dry air in this area. You see a little bit of moisture hanging off the southeast coast, but uh nothing really going on big time over here. There's some moisture right here associated with that blob of convection early on and then it sort of gets down here in the central Gulf and dissipates and uh a little remnant of it maybe swings up into the southeast. But not until you get way on out in the period you start to see a little bit more moisture coming off of Africa. But this big blocking high up here around the Azors just kind of meandering around is keeping a lot of dust coming off and keeping us dry in our main development region. And then shear finally kind of abates as we get way on out into the period. Here's what we're looking at right here. a lot of shear across our main development region and into the Caribbean. So, not looking at anything getting going there. But look what happens way at the end of the period. We really start to reduce that shear. So, if anything's sitting down here, we could have another favorable opportunity for something to develop later on down the road across parts of the Gulf and the Southeast. We'll run it back one more time. Take a look at the beginning of the period. Got some shear here. It'll be diminishing for a little bit of time. You can see how it kind of diminishes. That's the window that we have for development, okay? Over the next several days, early next week. That would be our time frame that we're looking at. And finally, let's get over here on a better display. We can see what's going on. The European Ensemble, European AI is a little bit more enthusiastic. There goes our low off of Africa. It will eventually dissipate.

[00:19:26]We've got several members bringing a low here. Some take it up the southeast coast. Some take it over here off the Gulf Coast. Keep it offshore and then eventually get it inland. But we're talking about early next week for anything that would develop would be uh that would be our time frame of interest. And there you go. Not really anything too strong. If it gets out here into the southeast coast, we could see a quick tropical storm. Uh but again, no big hurricanes or anything like that.

[00:19:50]So, we've are are still doing pretty well in terms of our tropical season.

[00:19:55]Not threatening land with any kind of major hurricane. That continues to be the case for a while yet. We'll watch how things develop as we go through the season. But that's that. Now, we're going to wrap up with Volcano Friday and see what's going on under the Earth and up in space.

[00:20:13]Well, we don't have any major sunspots, but we did have a CME. Look at it blast off over here on the left hand side of the disc. Look at that thing. And boy, if that was pointed to Earth, that's pretty powerful blast. A lot of velocity on that. And came off quick. That would be not great if it was pointed at us, but it's not. And unfortunately, GO 19 is offline, so we're having to use our backup here. Not much going on in the way of solar flaring either. had a couple of almost Mclass solar flares.

[00:20:42]Not so impulsive on the first one. It sort of had a long duration to it, but nothing going on on the KP. There's your disc with sunspots. Most of these are not very complex, and they don't look to be gaining any complexity. So, we could see some filament eruptions, which would uh snap a few umbras, send out some plasma toward us in terms of a CME if that were to be the case, but really not outside of that. Not looking at too much going on. Nothing going on in the earthquake front around the United States today, which is good except for this tiny little quake down here. Looks like a 2.2 in Southern California. Not all that uncommon to see. That's about all that's going on there. And I promised you volcano Friday. So, let's go and take a look at the volcano rim and see what we see. Is there anything that we need to be concerned about? No.

[00:21:27]Everything's green across the board.

[00:21:30]Cupernov Shashalden. Oh, there's a new one. Look at that. Atka is back. that goes back last year. It's actually on an advisory I think uh or a watch rather watches Great Sitkin. That's the next up on the list and of course it continues to um be on a watch for disruption disruption eruption from time to time.

[00:21:50]But uh that is all good news for us.

[00:21:52]Nothing going on in the Pacific Ring of Fire and of course up in space we have the moon that we need to pay attention to. Our next full moon will be July the 29th. It's called a buck moon. And uh new moon was July the 14th and we are now a 13.3% waxing crescent moon. And this is what I like. I know some of you don't like this. There's a big going on about daylight savings time. I like things the way they are. Let's just keep them that way. Some people like longer daylight.

[00:22:19]They like to get up when it's very very dark and have daylight just continue into the evening. I'm kind of the opposite. I like it when daylight ends uh when day the day ends earlier. But uh we are on the downside now my friends.

[00:22:30]There was our peak daylight. We are going in this direction and uh we are right right about there. All right. So, we are losing daylight on the front and the back end now more and more quickly as we head toward the autuminal equinox.

[00:22:44]And that's just how it is. And now you know the weather, my friends. It's been fun being with you this week. I will continue to do videos this weekend.

[00:22:51]We'll have a cold drizzle here. Try I'm going to try to do a short reel with him and get him to do some weather with me if he is in the mood to do so. So, we will see. he's autistic and sometimes he's in the mood and sometimes he's not.

[00:23:03]So, we just go with the flow around here at the Cold Rain household. But, uh, thank you so much for being here today.

[00:23:08]Hope you have a wonderful weekend doing whatever it is you're doing. And certainly make sure that you stay sharp and chase hard. Always chase hard. That doesn't just apply to weather, too.

[00:23:17]Whatever you're doing, make sure you go at it 100%. Don't just give 90%. Give 110%. That's how you get ahead in life.

[00:23:23]Anyway, my friends, I hope you have a great weekend, and we'll see you back tomorrow with another video. Take care.

[00:23:28]God bless.