The Stock Market Wanted This

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]Yes, that's the question. Are you going to come to church or the casino? Cuz that's what this is looking like, ladies and gentlemen. We might actually get ourselves an end to the war. As it stands right now, Donald Trump is reviewing this memo, but he's also put out a comment saying that he doesn't think that a deal may be done. Like, what is it, Donald Trump? Which one do you want, sir? You just want to keep saying that you want to believe there's going to be a deal or not, but your stock market is doing fantastic, is it not? I mean, did anyone get a notification from the CME about the sell button has been removed or doesn't work?

[00:00:39]I got a call from one of the engineers and I was like, yo, man, can can we start, you know, is anybody selling?

[00:00:45]He's like, no, the CME have removed the sell button, so you can't sell anything.

[00:00:51]So, like, what about when price comes down?

[00:00:53]Just just buy it. Is it buy the rumor, sell the news kind of vibe? We just had some information about the ADP non-farm employment that came in. Okay. Is man, what does it all mean? A little while ago, you may have heard me mentioning the fact that asset managers are heavily in dollar positions.

[00:01:15]Equally, if the war does end, there will be a drastic recovery and a drop down on dollar positions. Okay. So, ultimately, we've got to say to ourselves, is that happening as we speak? I mean, going through all the asset classes that we've got right now, you've got the NASDAQ, you've got Salana, you've got Bitcoin, Ethereum's come woken up out of nowhere, which is all good, but [sighs] I mean, does anybody trust it? Have they already priced in the end of the war? Because that's what the market does, you know? It's like build up to news announcements. News announcement comes out and it does the opposite.

[00:01:59]But it is a very interesting marketplace. But we are now starting to see the disparity coming into play. That means when the dollar goes down, assets go against it to the upside. That's what you want to see. What we've been seeing is some assets have been moving up, dollar's been moving up, gold's been moving up, NASDAQ's been moving up, the VIX has been moving up, oil's been moving up, and you're there scratching your balls thinking, at what point do you take a trade? Like, how do you apply a logic? These are tough times, but once the narrative of war is done, investors can now focus on the impact of it, the faster oil's price drops, the sooner we can accept that inflation might not be a problem. So, we can now lean to the idea of cutting rates.

[00:02:40]Let's break it all down, ladies and gentlemen. Here we go. So, Trump warned strike on Iran will restart at a higher level than before if peace deal is not agreed. [laughter] What do you want me to say? Looking at the marketplace, we've had some storming behavior. But let me explain something to you all. First things first, historically, when the stock market climbs and it just doesn't stop, you're going to refer to the stock market participants and say to yourself, who's going up? That's what you're going to do. You're going to say, "Surely Nvidia is going to be making an all-time high. Surely Meta's doing something.

[00:03:21]Google should be doing something. Intel, IBM, all your tech players are going to be doing something, right? So, let's just go and have a look at what's going on. Firstly, Nvidia, the stellar performer, ladies and gentlemen. NASDAQ making significant moves to the upside and Nvidia has had the day off and growing mushrooms.

[00:03:41]This is accumulation.

[00:03:45]Wait there.

[00:03:48]Microsoft.

[00:03:52]Amazon.

[00:03:56]Go on Amazon.

[00:03:58]What do you want me to say? Google, you know, it's the only thing that Warren Buffett's invested in. Okay. I mean, Meta, bro, we get it, man. You did all right on your earnings, but you then went and said to all your investors that you're going to spend more money, and historically, you don't really have a good relationship with spending money because you don't really get a return from it. And that's what investors see.

[00:04:18]But the last time they mentioned this, ladies and gentlemen, look what happened. It came down, but it came back up. Said they spent some money, came back up.

[00:04:28]So then you're left with the question, although about Apple. How's Apple doing?

[00:04:30]Oh, Apple's sort of all right.

[00:04:35]IBM, these are all the big tech guys, right?

[00:04:39]Intel 3040 billion worth of profit for the US government since investing in this company.

[00:04:48]So then you say to yourself, hold on a second, why is the stock market going up?

[00:04:53]Options. Simple as they're not allowing it to go down. Let me explain.

[00:05:01]In front of you is the QQ. Sorry, this is the QQQ options trail. You can get this information anywhere. Okay.

[00:05:12]Prior to yesterday, before this significant madness to the upside, okay, before the 680, there was a call wall around the 75 675 which had 1.5 $1.6 billion worth of calls.

[00:05:31]Right?

[00:05:32]This is all expireies which effectively means that they were not allowing it to go down. There was too much interest. So that meant that the market participants were effectively in the belief that there is going to be a ceasefire or it's going to continue and there is going to come to an end of this war. Why? Because all we're talking about now is I want to put my ships there. No, you don't. We want to pass them there. No, you can't. If you do that, we're going to blow you up. No, you're not because you keep saying it and you won't. So the market participants are like, "Okay, then this is this is good news." So they're plowing into their positions and protecting them, which leaves dealers.

[00:06:09]The only thing that they can do is sell into strength, buy into weakness. Okay?

[00:06:15]And what they're doing is selling into the strength. This is not a trend. This is an intentional move. They are keeping it higher because the options markets are saying so. one spot, $4 billion at $680 Callwall on the QQQ.

[00:06:36]Well, where's that? Go over to the QQQ.

[00:06:40]You can see we're at 688.

[00:06:43]So, where does support come into play, ladies and gentlemen? By principle, support should be coming in at the 680.

[00:06:51]Now, this is all expireies, okay? If you're wondering why the stock market is going up so much, yet all the major participants that we're waiting for, the household names with the stellar earnings, why are they not pumping on this?

[00:07:07]Because it's the options markets that's fueling it.

[00:07:11]Okay?

[00:07:12]When you don't see the major players doing something, you then got to ask yourself, who's really making the move to the upside? I mean, it's helping that Google's doing the big moves. It's helping that Intel's doing the big moves. So, two stocks has sent the NASDAQ to alltime, it's not even called all-time high anymore.

[00:07:33]You've got the moon, right? Here is the moon. Okay. And then you've got NASDAQ standing up looking down at the moon.

[00:07:43]Why are you all waiting to go to the moon? The moon's just a small thing now.

[00:07:48]We've apparently Uranus is higher than the moon.

[00:07:53]So, we're aiming for Uranus. You are aiming for Uranus.

[00:07:58]Uranus. That's That's what you wait.

[00:08:00]That's That's the new thing. Forget the moon, man. You don't want the moon.

[00:08:05]Moon's nothing. Anyways, Uranus, what a guy. Private payroll. [laughter] Private payrolls rose by 109,000.

[00:08:16]Not bad. Let's have a look.

[00:08:20]More than what they expected. Well, they have what they previously had at 61, 109,000 lower than what their projections were. Remember that when you're looking at financial information, that looks like it's a bad figure relative to what they expected, but the real reading was 61 last time, so it's higher than what it was. So then when you read news articles, oh, they payrolls rose by 109,000. You come over to the calendar and you say, "Hold on a second, it's negative." Forget the analysts cuz they don't have a clue.

[00:08:46]They're just spitting out a number and hoping that it hits, right? The real reading is based off of what happened before and it came in at 61 so it's doubled. So maybe that is just showing some resilience in the labor market.

[00:08:59]Yeah. Well, ladies and gentlemen, non-farm payrolls is a big day. What day is it today? It's the 6th.

[00:09:08]So tomorrow with the unemployment claims when they're expecting it to come in higher at 205,000 and if it comes in lower than 205,000 and less than what the 189,000 was, that's going to be wonderful news. That means that we can get set up for an interest in non-farm payrolls. That means that the economy is sustaining itself. There is labor, there is work, and that means that if the war does come to an end, inflation is eventually going to come down because oil's price is starting to work lower.

[00:09:34]Going into it, you can see Brent crude's taking a bit of a tumble to the downside. Naturally, there will be retraces back to the upside. Okay?

[00:09:44]But what we got to take into consideration, ladies and gentlemen, is the fact that if the war does continue to play out the way it's playing out, investors will then start to think, you know what, it's going to come to an end.

[00:09:57]It is cuz if no one's bombing each other, then we know there is deescalation coming into action. Okay?

[00:10:03]So, when you do hear Donald Trump talking about this, say warns on Iran and we might restart, he said they all going to get blown off. He said worseer things. Okay? So now he's really taking the mickey when you think about it. Like they've come through with a memo responding and then you know Donald Trump's like, "Yeah, you better hurry up and sign." What the hell is that, bro?

[00:10:22]Just keep your mouth shut. Let them review it. If they accept it, cool.

[00:10:27]The threats aren't working with Iran. If anything, I believe Iran wants Donald Trump to move forward. But with this new freedom blockade that he's doing, okay, project freedom, that in itself, well, what's the point in guiding ships if you're not going to do anything if there are any attacks? He's not even going to allow the ships, the bottom, the warships to get any close to where it could compromise these ships. So, what was Project Freedom about? Like, he's just just fancied coming out with a name. Anyways, just breaking it all down going into the stock market. Understand where we are as we head into the open.

[00:11:00]Like I want to try and keep these lives short and sweet for you. Stock market, it looks really it's relatively well.

[00:11:06]Going over into the futures markets, you can see crude oil at the top side and natural gas taking a bit of a stab to the downside. Where's rough rice?

[00:11:15]At the top you got silver, copper, platinum, gold, lean hogs, NASDAQ, Dow, Bitcoin, rough rice trading negative against Bitcoin. That is good news, ladies and gentlemen. Let's go over to Bitcoin's price action to break it all down for us so we can see. Okay, so look, you can't complain. And Bitcoin has actually made the recovery back up towards the red vector candle ranges that we've been looking for them to go into. That's great news. So, if you were buying spot on Bitcoin here, you would be seeing a nice little bit of a recovery coming up to the 800 200 EMA, sorry, on the daily time frame going into the order flow.

[00:11:53]You can see we are witnessing lots and lots and lots of people selling the Bitcoin as prices are going up. We still got more flavor to the upside as we can see that we got 20 million to be sold at 83175. Going even further, 12 million, 18 million, going even higher, we've got we got a little cluster over here at 5 million. But there is some interesting participants. Oh no, they've actually cleared it. They've actually picked it up. There was around 67 million Bitcoin at this level down here and they've actually picked it all up. Excuse me, ladies and gentlemen. What is going on here?

[00:12:34]That is wild. Anyways, with that being said, quickly going over into the insiders because with this rally to the upside, Grants the question. This is what's going on. People are buying. Red isn't selling. Okay, cool. Now, let's go into sell transactions. Any big boys?

[00:12:52]Not seeing big boys really being sold.

[00:12:55]When I say big boys, I'm looking for the big stocks. And it doesn't look like they're selling major stocks or household stocks that we are familiar.

[00:13:03]Oh, we got a Netflix chief legal officer has sold um 316 shares, I think it is.

[00:13:08]Yeah, 316,000 shares. I'm not really concerned if I'm not seeing Nvidia, if I'm not seeing Meta or Google. So that means they're retaining the value. So when you do see the market retrace, understand that this is a dip buying opportunity and it's scary. I mean, think about it. How scary is it to start buying at these levels? Like who's buying at this level? Who is buying at this level? It's very difficult. But the market will convince you that it's going to keep going higher. So it's going to trap traders. But we are starting to see a bit of an exhaustion gap towards the top side of the range. Okay, there is an exhaustion gap and that is a problem. Now, what we got to keep an eye out, ladies and gentlemen, for those of you that are investing in stocks, this is what you've got to look out for.

[00:13:54]According to Market Surge, the number of distribution days that are coming into play on the NASDAQ and the S&P, there's four on the S&P, one on the NASDAQ. By looking at this, it's showing you that there is clear interest in the NASDAQ.

[00:14:07]Okay. Equally on the S&P there's four distribution days. What could that mean?

[00:14:13]It can mean one thing. That if this war does come to an end, okay, investors will now be offloading on oil, mining, and all of those stocks. Okay? So, whatever sale days you see on the S&P and you're looking across the board and you're like, hold on a second, the stock market is should be going up. The war is over. Why is it pulling back? is because they're rotating out of transportation companies or oil companies or refiners, drillers, exploration, you name it.

[00:14:39]They're getting rid of the oil stocks, okay? And then they're going to start rotating back into normal stocks. Okay?

[00:14:46]When you see a distribution day on the NASDAQ of one and the S&P's coming in with four and if they're not married up together, it means that there is a rotation in a specific sector. So then what sector's been performing really well? Oil. So, it would be worth you guys going over to oil and having a look at oil stocks because they're more than likely going to start coming down. If this war does come to an end and Donald Trump does get the peace agreement and there is a deal in place, oil stocks are going to pull back. Okay? And then investors will start rotating back into what? The stock market of tech. That means they will go into Google. They'll go into Meta. They'll go into Microsoft.

[00:15:21]Any tech company that has experienced a pullback, they will start going into them because it pretty much got the go-ahad because the war is done.

[00:15:32]That's it. What else do you want me to say to you ladies and gentlemen? Now, with that being said, we, you know, we've got to be very careful. The smart money dumb money chart is starting to show something interesting. Retail is going crazy. They're loving life. Okay.

[00:15:48]And this has effectively been updated and smart money is coming down which suggests that the SPL um the S&P is going up. So they're selling and they are aggressively selling to the upside but retail is still optimistic about things. So again it grants the question are you guys buying at this level? I'll tell you what when you see the NASDAQ like this okay and then you see Bitcoin like this you ask yourself is it worth getting into Bitcoin rather than NASDAQ because technically Bitcoin does have a lot of freedom to go. So there may be a risk on aspect to things. Okay. And there shouldn't be a problem with Bitcoin continuing higher. All right.

[00:16:25]Dollar dominance. It's taking a little bit of a tumble. As I said, when asset managers know that the war is done, they're going to get rid of their dollar positions. Okay.

[00:16:33]Which means that once the war is done and oil starts to contract, we can now start focusing on our dearly beloved interest rates.

[00:16:42]Right? So when the interest rate story comes in June still 93 July 87 September 84 October 77 and this is all to be holding the interest rates 70% in December and January okay we get a ceasefire agreement well we get an end to the war these bets are all going to change significantly we had a Fed speaker coming out saying that yeah we do favor an actual rate cut this year well investors aren't really trading that until the war has in done and dusted. Okay, the second they do agree with it, these bets are going to start to change and then it's going to start to lean to the idea of a rate cut. That means the dollar is going to start coming down. The euro itself will continue with its narrative to the upside. Okay, and the Japanese yen will also see the benefit of that. Okay, so as long as that story comes into play, the yields on the dollar will start to go down. The stock market will retrace but continue to go higher. gave you a call 30K NASDAQ. Speaking of which, I do need to go and have a look at one interesting stock that we do pay attention to quite a bit.

[00:17:50]Circle, how is circle?

[00:17:56]It's all right. It's doing okay. I mean, if you've been buying it at these levels here when you were going crazy at me saying, "Oh my god, what a stock."

[00:18:02]And what have you, well, it's doubled in price now, so it should be okay. But as I said, I'm still expecting Circle to come back into its all-time high. $300 a a share straight up. You know, I'm expecting that. You might not believe it, but it's going to take a little while for it to come up to that point.

[00:18:15]But yeah, man, they've been accumulating nicely. Okay, look at all the selling that's happened. There's only been two real negative candles on selling, okay?

[00:18:25]But they've actually been buying it for the better word. Okay, and then when you look at all the volume coming into play on the move to the upside, you can see that it's all actually positive. Okay, so they've been accumulating earnings per share is coming in massive and their earnings per share is due in 5 days time. Look at all the volume down here.

[00:18:42]It's disappeared. Once the earnings comes into play and they're projected to come in, great. Institutional investors have increased from 496 all the way up to 517.

[00:18:53]It's being primed for a breakout to the upside. And if it does do that, take some, pay yourself. Nothing wrong with that.

[00:19:02]Cool. Happy days. Cool. Where we at?

[00:19:06]Having a look at the news announcements.

[00:19:07]Looking at the moo data as such. Here we go.

[00:19:18]I give up. These the these are the these are not interesting times. Okay. Listen to this.

[00:19:25]At 10 Yeah. 10 minutes ago. Iran has rejected such proposals in recent days.

[00:19:36]Uh I'm um the ISNA. The US plan contains ambitious and unrealistic proposals.

[00:19:44]Parts of the Axis report are speculation. Forget this. Forget this.

[00:19:49]This is this is just an absolute joke.

[00:19:52]It's an absolute joke. Ladies and gentlemen, look, listen. You make money in this market, take it, walk away, and then wait till Trump goes to sleep.

[00:20:00]That's all you got to do because he's a going to be running his mouth which makes sense as to why he said this because probably there is no agreement.

[00:20:08]Just pay yourselves, ladies and gentlemen. Just take something off the table. All right. Now, with that being said, going into it all, how many of you are in here today? Cool. Uranus says hi.

[00:20:18]Mad love and respect for that. Be sure to like and subscribe, ladies and gentlemen. It's cheap to do. It's actually free. So, if you want to see this bold head appearing on your phones and get a bit of market information, make sure you do that. All right, with that being said, guys, hope you've enjoyed that and I'll be tuning in to you all later. Peace.