Scattered Storms in Eastern Arizona Next Week - May 30, 2026 Phoenix, Arizona Weather Discussion

本站添加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]It's the Phoenix Arizona weather discussion. This is for Saturday the 30th of May. I'm Michael Graf. I hope you had an opportunity to get out there and enjoy it yesterday because unless we get one of those fluke summer days with clouds and rain, that will be the last time we have high temperatures in the 80s probably until sometime in October.

[00:00:20]Now, a warming trend is underway for today, although temperatures will still be a little bit below seasonal averages, back to near normal for tomorrow.

[00:00:28]And then above average temperatures for the week ahead with desert high temperatures well up into the triple digits.

[00:00:34]Now, we do see evidence of some moisture increasing across at least eastern Arizona for the middle part of the week for some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. The questions are, how far west will that moisture get? How hot will it be? How long is all of that going to last? Are there any signs at least a little pre-monsoonal activity. We will talk about all of that and so much more. We're getting very close to that start of meteorological summer. So, let's dive in and discuss.

[00:01:05]All right, first, the almanac from yesterday. How about that for the 29th of May? 86° was the afternoon high officially in Phoenix. You You can't beat that, that's for sure. 69 the morning low.

[00:01:18]Both of those below those averages of 99 and 73. And as we take a look outside right now here in the 10:00 hour, clear sky out there, 82° at Sky Harbor, dew points at 36, relative humidity 19%, the winds are light and the barometer is steady.

[00:01:36]Satellite picture out here across the west, that big area of low pressure that was all wound up and moving through the west bringing that cooler air, the unsettled conditions over parts of the region.

[00:01:48]Well, that's lifting out. It's weakening as it does. Westerly flow around here, high pressure is going to be building in. And so as a result, of course, temperatures are going to be heating up with that very dry air to continue. Now, the watch warning maps, some interesting stuff here. Uh flood watches over parts of East Tennessee.

[00:02:08]Well, sections of Western Montana. We also have a winter weather advisory on the board up there over the Beartooth Mountains. Yeah, we could see a few few flakes of snow flying up there. How about that to close out May uh for today and tomorrow. Otherwise, things are pretty quiet right now, but the convective outlook, we have the standard slight risk of severe storms, level two out of five, extending from far northern Oklahoma all the way up into Nebraska and South Dakota. A marginal risk for the adjacent portions of the plain states, even up into eastern Montana.

[00:02:42]The tropics in the East Pacific, pretty quiet for the next couple of days, but there is a chance, a pretty good chance of tropical cyclone formation out here, way out in the middle of nowhere, far, far, far out of the south, southwest of the Baja. About an 80% chance though that we'll see development in that region. The first tropical cyclone of the season in the East Pacific.

[00:03:06]All right, closer to home. The precipitation outlook, this is valid through next Saturday morning from the WPC. Rain amounts in Phoenix, nothing statewide. Rain amounts generally a quarter of an inch or less over there in the far eastern mountains, maybe parts of southeast Arizona. We're talking about places like Show Low, Hannigan Meadow, maybe down toward Willcox. We we might see a storm or two uh throughout the week. Uh better chance of storms over the higher terrain of those eastern mountains. And I'd say the peak day for that activity will likely be Wednesday.

[00:03:36]But we're going to talk about that and more as we get to the models right now, see what the future may hold. Here we go. This is the GFS. It's the 12Z run.

[00:03:43]This is valid at 5:00 this afternoon.

[00:03:46]And this is the upper look at 500 millibars, about 18,000 ft above sea level. Look at that ridge, those positive height anomalies way up into Canada.

[00:03:57]That low that was around here, open wave, it's lifting out through the the Intermountain West and out toward the plain states and that'll be the focal point for some showers and storms today.

[00:04:06]But for us down at the surface for the rest of the day, sunny sky, dry conditions, high temperatures warmer, low to mid-90s here in Phoenix.

[00:04:15]Now, that is still below average for the date, but certainly warmer than what we saw yesterday. For tonight, with clear sky and dry air, we'll still cool off into the 60s for most of the valley, right around 70 in the urban core.

[00:04:31]Of course, 30s and 40s for the high country, so it'll still feel good up there.

[00:04:36]But for tomorrow, warmer, sunny, high temperatures uh mid-90s to about 100 in Phoenix, generally in the 70s and 80s for the high country.

[00:04:46]Here's Monday, high temperatures continue to warm up around 100 to 104 here in Phoenix, maybe as high as 105 or 106 for the deserts of southeast California, southwest Arizona.

[00:04:58]And over the mountains, yeah, upper 70s and 80s present there.

[00:05:04]Now, ridging is developing off to the east. We have a little upper low, a little disturbance off to the west, and more of a southerly flow begins to develop here across New Mexico, Arizona.

[00:05:16]Widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop there. We'll put some small and rain chances into the forecast as early as Tuesday.

[00:05:26]Uh probably not as far west as Flagstaff. Again, uh maybe uh over there toward uh Hannagan Meadow, down toward Willcox, uh maybe Greer. I suppose we could see a few storms. And and ultimately, we might even see as as the week progresses, uh we might see a few storms push a little further west and north. And again, up toward Window Rock and Fort Defiance, we we might see a couple of storms. Again, the eastern part of the state probably staying east of Globe, although there I guess there could be a storm over there by Globe as well as we get toward Wednesday. So, high temperatures on Tuesday, again, 100 to 105° will tack on a couple of degrees on Wednesday. Sunny, hot.

[00:06:11]High temperatures 103 to 107 in Phoenix.

[00:06:14]There might be a few high clouds, but for the most part, uh any storm activity is far away from the lower deserts. Um we might, [clears throat] again, see some storms. I I think this will be the best day for storm coverage uh in the higher terrain of eastern Arizona.

[00:06:29]Uh but right now, yeah, uh the best chance of rain will be over the higher terrain there.

[00:06:35]And of course, New Mexico, Colorado, and West Texas, pretty good chance for precipitation there.

[00:06:41]So, you might say, "Well, this kind of looks a little monsoonal." It It's It is not a completely unheard of to see this kind of a pattern develop in early June. Um but in terms of what this means for us here in the lower deserts, and an early onset of of monsoonal activity, I would say, "No, this is just uh we do see this from time to time, but we'll have to watch model trends and we'll see how the rest of the month progresses."

[00:07:10]All right, this is Thursday. High temperatures might back off a degree or two. Highs 102 to 106. We might see a little further cooling on Friday with highs upper 90s to about 103 here across the lower deserts. Again, thanks to a little upper load to the south that'll dampen the height fields here.

[00:07:24]Uh that should bring temperatures down a bit. We also see evidence of another trough developing along the west coast.

[00:07:30]We'll keep an eye on that. Uh but shower and thunderstorm activity will generally decrease across eastern Arizona late in the week, although some isolated afternoon storms are still possible.

[00:07:40]Better chances of storms will be confined to Colorado and New Mexico and again over the higher terrain in those areas as well.

[00:07:50]Right a week from today, this is Saturday, the 6th of June.

[00:07:55]All right, troughing coming into the Pacific Northwest and again some type of maybe weak low or baggy wave here over the Southwest.

[00:08:04]That's not a real great look for any moisture around here, but what that will do is again take temperatures down a little bit closer to average. Now keep in mind that average at this point is about highs, you know, upper 90s to about 101 in Phoenix and that's where we should expect to be here.

[00:08:20]Pretty much the same story for Sunday, the 7th and the end of the forecast period. This is Monday, the 8th of June.

[00:08:28]Again, the the GFS indicates some baggy troughing off to the west of us and we'll watch that because if there is any tropical moisture out there, maybe it we could see some clouds advected our direction, but at this point I don't think we're going to see much out of that. That looks like a fairly dry look with temperatures close to seasonal averages. Just for funsies.

[00:08:57]Let's take a look at the Euro AI ensemble at the same time.

[00:09:02]Monday, the 8th.

[00:09:04]And again kind of a similar setup although a bit more of a deep trough especially up there from in the Northeast Pacific with kind of a downstream baggy trough here right along the West Coast and sort of a south-southwesterly flow. Again, that looks like it would be pretty dry for us, but temperatures would not be overly hot here. They would be seasonal highs probably somewhere from about 95 to 102 degrees across the lower deserts.

[00:09:35]But this is 10 days out, subject to change. We've seen all kinds of different looks out here, but right now, if you're looking for any real sign of uh precipitation here over the lower deserts, you're probably not going to happen for the next 10 days. The higher terrain of Eastern Arizona, uh there will be at least some chance for precipitation during the forecast period.

[00:09:56]Rainfall for Phoenix, this goes out through the 13th of June. This is off the GFS ensemble, and the ensemble mean is under a tenth of an inch. Yeah, there's there's some members that do show some rain, though, out there at 10 days and beyond. But, that's again, trudging out there toward fantasy land.

[00:10:13]Yes, if the tropics in the East Pacific get more active and you have some troughing along the West Coast, you never know, maybe you get some moisture pulled up this way. Again, it's not like that's never happened in early June here. It's just unusual, but we will keep an eye on it. Uh the Euro, on the other hand, the Euro ensemble says, "Nah, not really." Uh again, basically nothing. Euro AI, basically nothing. 51 members in this ensemble, I mean, we could count it out right now. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 members that have any precipitation at all on the board.

[00:10:52]Uh so, yeah, that doesn't look very favorable.

[00:10:55]All right, temperatures off the national blend of models.

[00:10:58]Look, uh we're moving into June. We're moving into meteorological summer. Uh yeah, these temperatures on paper are a few degrees above average, but they're not record breaking. This is not absolutely astonishing. Look, it's Phoenix, it's June. It's going to be hot, pretty good chance.

[00:11:15]Uh you know, 13 out of 14 times, it's it's going to be hot in early June in Phoenix. Every once in a while, we get one of those Well, just like last year, we get unsettled weather, or we get something that keeps us a little bit cooler, but uh that's not going to happen here in all probability. All right, speaking of probability, the CPCL look at the 8 to 14-day period, June 6th through the 12th, and if this is accurate, well, what do you know? Temperatures are favored to be above average here across Arizona and really much of the contiguous United States.

[00:11:51]Precipitation probabilities are skewed toward above average for Eastern Arizona, about the eastern half or so of the state with near average precipitation expected elsewhere. And again, that's kind of leaning with what we're seeing on the deterministic models and some of the ensemble data with some moisture across the eastern part of the state.

[00:12:11]And so, we'll Hey, we'll take whatever rain we can get. We're still in a desperate drought situation here over the Southwest.

[00:12:20]All right, that's going to do it for the Phoenix, Arizona weather discussion for today. My next video is due back here tomorrow morning, and should you happen to enjoy these videos, well, be sure to subscribe, like, share, click that notification bell, leave those comments, questions, and suggestions.

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[00:14:31]Please, I want you to be safe. I want you to stay cool, stay hydrated out there. And you guys have yourselves a delightful rest of your Saturday.