What If the Largest Bubble in History Isn’t Crypto or AI?

Ajouté : 2026-05-20

[00:00:01]Hey everyone. Hopefully you're having a good day. My name's Andy. My channel is Finding Value.

[00:00:06]Today we're going to go through Twitter, see what people are sharing on social media.

[00:00:09]I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together, generally related to three different topics.

[00:00:15]Wealth building, commodities, and/or financial topics.

[00:00:18]Let's dive right in, take a look, see what's going on today.

[00:00:22]And if you want to follow me, it's @finding_finance. And if you want to join our community, findinghyphenvalue.com, that's where I dive deeper into all these different sectors looking for investment opportunities and sharing those opportunities with everybody in the community.

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[00:01:06]Doug Casey International, let's look at this guy here. I want to talk about this. He says, "The 10-year Treasury yield is perhaps the most important financial benchmark in the global fiat system as it drives valuations and market trends worldwide. It is widely and erroneously regarded as the risk-free rate of return."

[00:01:32]The 10-year Treasury yield can be thought of as a key barometer of the US dollar-based fiat system.

[00:01:40]A critical measure akin to its uh beating heart.

[00:01:44]Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When bond prices fall, bond yields rise.

[00:01:51]A rising 10-year Treasury yield signals trouble for the US dollar because it means investors are selling Treasuries, which pushes up the US government's borrowing costs.

[00:02:04]This is why the the 10-year Treasury yield is a major pain point for the US government.

[00:02:12]The 10-year Treasury yield was 3.97% when the war started.

[00:02:17]Now, it is around 4.6%.

[00:02:21]An increase of roughly 63 basis points.

[00:02:25]I expect the 10-year Treasury yield to keep climbing over the coming weeks and months until it forces the Fed's hand.

[00:02:33]At that point, the intervention will be sold as stability, but the mechanism will be familiar.

[00:02:40]Suppress yields to buy debasing the currency.

[00:02:46]At today's debt levels, every basis point increase in the government's average borrowing costs adds roughly 3.9 billion in annual interest expense.

[00:02:56]So, a 63 basis rise is not trivial.

[00:03:00]It translates to nearly 250 billion dollars in additional yearly interest costs, materially widening a 2025 budget deficit that was already around 1.8 trillion.

[00:03:15]Higher yields mean the US government must pay tens or even hundreds of billions more in interest on its debt.

[00:03:23]At the same time, the global economy faces even greater added costs because Treasury rates service the benchmark for borrowing worldwide.

[00:03:32]This is not an insignificant move.

[00:03:35]However, given all the headwinds I have discussed, I suspect the 10-year Treasury yield is headed much higher because investors will demand higher yields to compensate for rising inflation.

[00:03:47]Further, if Hormuz remains closed, drastically higher oil prices are all but certain.

[00:03:54]Higher energy prices mean higher prices across the economy and higher official inflation rates, which means investors will demand still higher yields to compensate.

[00:04:06]The problem is that interest on the federal debt is already over 1.2 trillion and is now the second largest item in the budget.

[00:04:15]The US government cannot afford yields going much higher because the interest expense would push it towards bankruptcy.

[00:04:23]I'm not sure how or even if the US government can manage this situation.

[00:04:29]Something has to give and we will not have to wait long to find out what.

[00:04:35]The Iran war may prove to be more than another foreign policy disaster.

[00:04:40]It could be the trigger that exposes the fragility of the entire dollar-based financial system.

[00:04:49]Huh.

[00:04:51]Well, that that's pretty big.

[00:04:53]Um I don't know if we're going into hyperinflation or if we've got a major problem in debt, which I think we do have.

[00:05:03]The question is what do we do about it?

[00:05:05]Right? I don't think there's anything that the government can necessarily do about it, but on an individual basis, I'd be protecting oneself against inflation.

[00:05:16]You know, I heard a couple of people or [clears throat] read a couple of a tweets on Twitter saying that deflation's the problem.

[00:05:23]It's like, what are you talking about?

[00:05:25]This here is all inflationary.

[00:05:28]Rates going up means that pressure is building in the bond market.

[00:05:36]If they're going to save, quote, the bond market, you know, quote, save it, they're going to have to buy bonds to hold yields down.

[00:05:46]If they buy bonds, they transfer that pressure in the bond market into the currency.

[00:05:53]The currency will drop and we'll get all of those big breakouts in the currency exchange rates.

[00:06:03]All favorable for commodities to go up because they're priced in dollars and the dollar would be going down in value.

[00:06:12]That's how it's all interconnected.

[00:06:16]Warren Buffett says, "I know I will win over time. That doesn't mean I'll beat everyone else.

[00:06:24]But I'm in a game that's very, very, very easy if you have the right lessons in your mind about what you're buying.

[00:06:31]I'm happier when stocks are going down because I can buy more of them for the same amount of money.

[00:06:38]Now, that's a complete mind shift.

[00:06:41]Everybody wants their stock to go up after they buy it. It makes them feel good. It makes them feel like they made the right decision.

[00:06:50]Listen to what Buffett just said.

[00:06:54]He knows he's happier when the stock goes down so he can buy more of it.

[00:06:59]That's the value mindset.

[00:07:02]Everyone else is stuck in the gambling mindset. They want to see progress. They want to see the portfolio go up immediately.

[00:07:09]If it doesn't go up, they sell the position, move on.

[00:07:13]Yeah, that's that's gambling, guys.

[00:07:15]That's an investor uh trading {slash} gambler mindset.

[00:07:21]Investor mindset is where the money's made.

[00:07:24]So, choose the right one is all I'm going to say.

[00:07:28]Jeffrey Currie says, "Everybody talks about the Mag 7.

[00:07:32]But my focus is on the munificent seven.

[00:07:36]Who are they? They are the oil companies and asset-heavy businesses generating real free cash flow yields in an AI sector that is trying to achieve breakout despite increasing constraints by energy, materials, and physical scarcity.

[00:07:55]Those oil company yields are 15 and 1/2% whereas the AI hyperscalers are 0%.

[00:08:02]Read that back again.

[00:08:04]>> [clears throat] >> The munificent seven are named for that reason.

[00:08:11]Yeah, I mean I'm I'm I'm playing the AI game the same way. I'm playing it through energy, materials, and physical scarcity. That That's all I'm doing.

[00:08:19]And I'm buying it when it's cheap.

[00:08:21]Done. That's it.

[00:08:23]I don't know I don't have much more to say there.

[00:08:26]Uh if you don't make money, I'm not there.

[00:08:30]What if the strait does not actually fully open up soon?

[00:08:33]What if the Iranians have decided controlling it gives them more strategic leverage than an actual nuclear bomb?

[00:08:41]What if oil starts to price shortages rather than just deficits?

[00:08:47]What? I think that's going to come. Why?

[00:08:49]Because it says it's in the charts.

[00:08:51]It's in the charts, guys. Like I I don't know what else to say. It's all in the charts. If I pull up a chart of US oil and look at it from a long-term perspective, it's all in the chart to go up. I mean, th- this is this is what I see in the in the chart there. We can get rid of those drawings, but th- that's the chart. And all it is, I'm just going to draw it in so it's faster.

[00:09:14]Consolidation, consolidation, consolidation, and then you just break higher. You go from one launch pad to another launch pad to another launch pad. And this is going to launch above this resistance there.

[00:09:29]And And it's that simple.

[00:09:31]And then you just price US oil against say like the S&P 500.

[00:09:37]You back way out and we're squeezing into this corner that's breaking higher.

[00:09:44]>> [clears throat] >> Something big is coming in oil and something bad's coming for the S&P 500.

[00:09:51]And and it's really that simple. There's nothing more elaborate than that.

[00:09:57]Um I'm I'm getting my cues from the market itself.

[00:10:01]>> [clears throat] >> An intelligent man never makes permanent decisions from temporary emotions.

[00:10:10]He waits, observes, and moves only when clarity has fully arrived.

[00:10:17]Never make permanent decisions from temporary emotions.

[00:10:23]Man, is that I don't know if he's alluding this, but he's talking about getting married.

[00:10:28]I mean, he he waits, observes, and moves only when clarity has fully arrived.

[00:10:32]He's talking about marriage here.

[00:10:34]Uh obviously he might be talking about the markets, too, but um yeah, don't don't listen to your emotions.

[00:10:41]Follow logic.

[00:10:45]Oil generationally peaks when a house in the US costs 1,600 barrels of oil.

[00:10:52]Right now that's $250 a barrel, but home prices will rise with inflation the next few years.

[00:10:58]I expect the eventual oil blow-off peak in the $300 range.

[00:11:03]Yeah, I I would agree with that. I I I would agree that we peak $200 to $600 a barrel oil, maybe even higher, I don't know.

[00:11:12]Now, a lot of people are going to struggle to think about that. And and what they do is they'll say, "How are people going to afford the oil?"

[00:11:22]What they're not thinking about is how low is the dollar going to be valued.

[00:11:25]That's what's driving it.

[00:11:28]It's the dollar.

[00:11:30]So, when the 10-year yields go up, they're going to transfer the pressure in the bond market to the dollar, and then the dollar's going to drop, and all these are going to go they're going to go up wicked fast.

[00:11:42]You know, like um Goodwill Hunting.

[00:11:45]Yeah, it's wicked, or whatever however they say wicked. It's wicked fast, yeah.

[00:11:49]He's wicked smart, wicked.

[00:11:51]>> [laughter] >> I was promised to deflationary spiral as Japanese 30-year yields just keep going higher. That's called inflation.

[00:12:01]Guys, you need to look at the market and go from the market backwards. You cannot be like, "Oh, we're going to get deflation. Oil's going to go back down to $20 a barrel."

[00:12:10]Okay, buddy.

[00:12:12]Cocaine's a hell of a drug.

[00:12:16]An intelligent man never lets urgency from others override the patience his strategy requires.

[00:12:24]I like that quote, guys.

[00:12:26]Um everybody worries about making money fast.

[00:12:30]The urgency of making money fast never overrides the patience his strategy requires.

[00:12:36]My strategy requires patience.

[00:12:39]You never override urgency over the patience that your strategy requires. Buy cheap assets and be patient for them to go up.

[00:12:49]Don't sell out of it because it hasn't gone up in 2 weeks or 4 months.

[00:12:53]Give it time.

[00:12:56]Urgency, that's You know what that's called?

[00:12:59]Impatient. Gambling. It's a gambling trader mindset.

[00:13:03]I hate that mindset, guys. I absolutely hate it. Doesn't make any money.

[00:13:08]The fastest way you learn is to try, fail, and write down why you failed. I You know, I I don't know if that's the case. I don't write down why I failed.

[00:13:18]That's not going to make you better.

[00:13:20]What makes you better is to be aware of what isn't working and changing what doesn't work. You don't need to write it down.

[00:13:31]I do this with everything.

[00:13:33]>> [clears throat] >> I did that with baseball when I was growing up.

[00:13:37]I knew where my weaknesses were and then you want to try to train those weaknesses. I did this with work. I do this with just anything in life. I do that with working out. I don't write anything down. I just pay attention.

[00:13:50]I pay attention to what my weaknesses are. Now, there are times where you don't want to improve a weakness.

[00:13:59]And someone's going to say, "What do you mean? What do you mean?" Time out here.

[00:14:03]Let me describe.

[00:14:06]There are things in this world that I don't want to improve upon. There are things that I hate and I don't want to do it.

[00:14:13]So, I don't do it.

[00:14:16]Now, there are things that I want to be good at. Say, investing.

[00:14:21]Now, I'm going to focus my efforts because I want to become a better investor on learning how to become better.

[00:14:28]It doesn't mean that if I fail one time, that I'm supposed to change my strategy or approach.

[00:14:35]It deals with statistics and probabilities and how much money you make when you do make money. It's asymmetric versus losing money. It's all part of the strategy.

[00:14:46]You need to be smart enough to know that failure is part of the strategy as well.

[00:14:54]But, there are things that I don't want to get better at.

[00:14:57]They don't help me with where I want to go.

[00:15:01]So, for instance, I don't know how to do woodworking that well.

[00:15:07]And I don't really have an interest in it. Not saying that people who have interest in woodworking are bad or anything. I just don't have interest in it myself.

[00:15:16]So, I don't develop that skill of woodworking and trying to figure out how to make cabinets and stuff. I I just don't care.

[00:15:25]But I I I I focus my effort where I think the biggest rewards are at.

[00:15:29]And for me, that's in investing. That's That's what I like doing.

[00:15:33]So, that's what I do.

[00:15:36]Breaking, the US 30-year note yield rises to 5.18%, its highest level since July 2008. Man, we are we are flying on yields higher here.

[00:15:48]It's going to cause money rotation.

[00:15:50]The pressure is building in the bond market right as I speak.

[00:15:55]Uh here's yields.

[00:15:56]Two [clears throat] years flying higher.

[00:15:59]Uh here's the uh shorter term. Look at that thing go.

[00:16:02]Uh 10 years up and the 30 years up, and I'm sure they're in there plunge protection team style, probably trying to slow this move down.

[00:16:10]I'm sure they are.

[00:16:13]But that's all going down, and we're going to see money rotate out of the equity market. You're going to see the S&P roll over.

[00:16:19]If it continues to rip higher.

[00:16:21]But the plunge protection team, they're going to be in there.

[00:16:24]Guarantee it.

[00:16:26]They're going to try to slow the move of yields and slow this downward move in the S&P and Nasdaq.

[00:16:30]They're going to try to hold this all up.

[00:16:36]Uh natural gas looks insanely explosive.

[00:16:38]Energy, fertilizers, agriculture, all of it can wake up fast from here. No, I I agree with that.

[00:16:46]Uh yields are also yields, energy, fertilizers, and agriculture all move up higher together.

[00:16:52]They all are the same trade.

[00:16:55]I think energy and fertilizers are the ones that are going to go up the most.

[00:17:00]Under these conditions.

[00:17:04]Uh yep, that 40-year plus downtrend was Ray Dalio's heroic risk parity trade.

[00:17:11]He went all in on it. All weather smart kid. Says, "What if the biggest bubble of our lifetime isn't crypto, not AI stocks, not real estate?

[00:17:23]What if the one asset every pension fund, every retiree, every safe portfolio is loaded with?

[00:17:31]Bonds.

[00:17:33]200 years of rate cycles says the same thing. Every peak lasts 56 to 67 years.

[00:17:40]The 1981 top was 14% yields. The 2020 bottom was 0%.

[00:17:47]39 years of falling rates just ended.

[00:17:51]What if now, at the start of the next 50-year cycle, is upward?

[00:17:56]Most investors have never managed money in a rising rate world. Their entire career happened inside the bull market of declining interest rates.

[00:18:06]The unwind has barely started and no one is talking about it. Well, I'm positioned for that unwind.

[00:18:13]My website is literally positioned for this to go higher over time.

[00:18:19]And this is this is your moves of the cycle.

[00:18:22]You can see the cycle breaking higher.

[00:18:26]It'd be like 1945, 100% or 1886 down here where it bottom.

[00:18:33]Here we go. This is it.

[00:18:35]And and again, if you want to get ideas on how to take advantage of this, it's all the companies we've been buying on the website at the bottom of of of all these markets, the commodities and precious metals.

[00:18:47]I mean, I am I am so ecstatic and relieved, excited, cautious a little bit. Like I'm so happy of of the cycles that I know, when I know them, and how it all came together in technical analysis, too, of buying the bottoms of all these different commodity and and energy companies and precious metals and and the physical metals themselves.

[00:19:16]It's all coming together.

[00:19:20]If we get a 50-year uptrend, check check this out, guys. He's talking about this.

[00:19:24]Let me just show you uh the 10-year yield, it's breaking higher.

[00:19:29]Let me get Let me get this. This increase in yields, if you were to put >> [clears throat] >> silver underneath it and oil underneath it, so this is silver, uh this is oil, and I'm going to kind of back out here and give you guys like a big picture view.

[00:19:47]Watch.

[00:19:48]This is a downtrend.

[00:19:51]This is a downtrend.

[00:19:55]Do you see that oil and silver are the same trade as yields?

[00:20:00]Now, as yields break higher here, we are going to get a gigantic move in oil, silver, uh gold will go up, too, and all these different metals. In the decline from this point forward, we had a consolidation all the way to the bottom of this guy here. That's the end of the consolidation.

[00:20:28]The cup and handle pattern the cup and handle pattern here is the consolidation.

[00:20:36]Now that we've broken out on interest rates, now we're breaking out in price. These are all going to go way, way up.

[00:20:43]If you understand that market dynamic, that's where the big money is made.

[00:20:52]The unwind has barely started and no one is talking about it.

[00:20:56]>> [clears throat] >> Again, this is the biggest thing uh that is come about in in markets and people are not positioned for this.

[00:21:09]I am, of course, and everyone on the website is.

[00:21:16]Here's Grady and his opinion on that same exact fact there.

[00:21:20]>> [clears throat] >> We are really extremely fortunate to be here seeing this glorious commodities bull market develop and having the tools to make the most of it.

[00:21:30]Now the chart has broken out above that pink line.

[00:21:34]It means the second leg has started. Do not miss what will be the greatest bull market ever seen.

[00:21:41]That's the CRB index divided by the Dow Jones Industrial.

[00:21:46]It's a 60-year bullish falling wedge.

[00:21:50]Called the false breakout at real time March of 2020.

[00:21:54]Said back in March of 2020 that this 60-year blue falling wedge would reshape the investment world. It did and is.

[00:22:03]That's it. This one here, this falling wedge, is a description of rising interest rates.

[00:22:09]This here is this here.

[00:22:13]They're both connected.

[00:22:17]And that's all I've got for today, guys.

[00:22:18]That's where we're going to end it. So give me a thumbs up for the content.

[00:22:20]Subscribe to the channel. Subscribe to the website if you like. Special on 500 year the coupon codes. Uh look for a midweek update where I share my opinions about individual companies and sectors and what I'm doing and how I'm positioning in those companies for this bull market that we are in uh for commodities and you can see that on the website under midweek update for May 20th.

[00:22:46]All right, guys. That's all I've got for today. We'll catch you next time. See you.