Monsoon Outlook 2026: Above Average Rainfall? - June 1, 2026 Phoenix, Arizona Weather Discussion

Added: 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]It's the Phoenix Arizona weather discussion. This is for Monday, the 1st of June. I'm Michael Grav. Welcome to the start of meteorological summer.

[00:00:08]These are the three warmest months of the year across North America and obviously here in the valley as well.

[00:00:13]And wouldn't you know it, just in time for that tripledigit heat returns to the valley and will continue through this forecast period with mainly dry conditions. Now, I say mainly dry because we do at least have a small chance at some showers and thunderstorms over parts of the state this week. We'll talk about that. Plus, as promised here on the 1st of June, we will not only talk about and review that monsoon outlook from the National Weather Service, the official CPC outlook for the upcoming monsoon season, but also we'll give you my monsoon forecast as well, which I'm sure you've been clamoring for, and even a little extra surprise along the way as well. So, so much to talk about. Let's dive in and discuss. All right, first the almanac from yesterday to close out the month of May. 99° was the afternoon high officially in Phoenix after a morning low of 72.

[00:01:08]100 is that average high for the date.

[00:01:10]74 the average low. Nowhere near that record high of 109° fortunately. And outside now here at 11:45 a.m. Sunny sky across the valley. 93° at Sky Harbor.

[00:01:20]Due points 34, humidity 13%. It's a calm wind and the barometer is steady.

[00:01:28]Satellite picture out here across the west. Put that in motion for you. Severe clear here across Arizona. No surprise.

[00:01:33]High pressure is building in and that will become the dominant feature more or less for the upcoming week. I say that because yeah, we might see a little upper low developing over northern Mexico later this week. Again, we'll talk about that in modeling as well.

[00:01:49]Here's that watch warning map. Pretty quiet out there. Although there is a severe thunderstorm watch across parts of North Mississippi and Alabama, extreme southwest Tennessee as well.

[00:01:58]Places included in that, Columbus, Tupelo, over toward Huntsville and the Muscle Scholes and pretty close to Birmingham as well. Elsewhere, we have an air quality alert here in Maricopa County that's issued by the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality. And so that will be in effect through this evening. The convective outlook, we've got the standard slight risk of severe storms, level two out of five, including places like Little Rock, Memphis, again, Tupelo, uh, Columbus, Mississippi, uh, over toward the Tennessee Valley down toward Birmingham, and the marginal risk for many of the adjacent areas from the plain states through much of the deep south and west Texas as well. And the strongest storms in those areas could produce some damaging straight line winds, maybe some hail. Also, the tropics in the East Pacific. Oh yes, getting active out here. We do have a wave on the board right now with a 40% chance of development. Now, this is way way down there at around 10° north. And so, this is not going to impact anybody. It's in the middle of nowhere. It stays in the middle of nowhere, but there is a 90% chance that this will develop over the next 7 days into a tropical depression or storm. So, obviously, we'll keep you updated on that. And this does portend to be a rather active hurricane season in the East Pacific.

[00:03:22]All right, the precipitation outlook.

[00:03:23]This is valid through Monday morning of next week. Rain amounts in Phoenix, nothing. Statewide, way over in the eastern mountains of our state, we could see rain amounts generally under one quarter of an inch. Obviously, your amount will vary, but some thunderstorm activity is possible even outside of where you see the colors on this map.

[00:03:39]The problem is those storms will be dry thunderstorms producing gusty winds, maybe some blowing dust, obviously lightning, and that's something we don't want to see this time of year here in the heart of the dry season. And given how dry it has been for many months here across the southwest because that does increase the risk of forest fires, wildfires, and obviously that's going to be a risk that we have until we start really getting in to that monsoon moisture and those thunderstorms. And maybe maybe that starts early and maybe it doesn't. Well, we'll find out what's going on with this weather pattern in more detail right now as we explore the models, see what the future may hold.

[00:04:17]Here we go. This is the GFS, the 12Z run valid at 5:00 this afternoon. And the upper look at 500 mibars about 18,000 ft above sea level.

[00:04:26]All right, high pressure is building in across the plain states and that's nudging into the southwest. Upper heights are rising. So what it all means down at the surface for the rest of the day today, sunny, warmer highs anywhere from the upper 90s to about 103° here in Phoenix. The hottest desert spots of southeast California, southwest Arizona might just be a little warmer than that.

[00:04:46]We'll see 70s and 80s across the high country for tonight. Clear sky, overnight lows, mid60s for the cool spots, maybe low 70s or so in the urban core. And then for tomorrow, it's essentially the same forecast, although we'll tack on a couple of degrees. Highs 101 to 105. Sunny sky here in Phoenix.

[00:05:04]Mostly sunny sky for much of northern eastern Arizona. However, some isolated late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms may pop up over the far eastern mountains of the state as a little bit of moisture starts to sneak in there. more of a southeasterly flow in that part of the state. And so we will watch for at least a few storms out that way. Now, let's go to Wednesday. High temperatures here in Phoenix, 102 to 106. The hottest desert spots might be a couple of degrees warmer than that. And [snorts] this will probably be the most active day for thunderstorms across again eastern Arizona with a little bit more moisture sneaking in. But many of these storms will again be high base storms. We don't really expect a lot of rain. I suppose there could be a brief heavy shower, but for the most part, gusty winds and lightning will be the primary risk from storms. And if you're looking for the best chance of storms, yeah, places like Xolo, Pinetop, Lakeside, uh maybe Hanigan Meadow, Greer, St. John's, up toward Window Rock, Fort Defiance. That's where you might find at least a few thunderstorms on Wednesday from the midday hours through the late afternoon and evening.

[00:06:16]um maybe even down into parts of southeast Arizona, but uh the rest of the state should stay generally quiet and even places like Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon. We don't expect to see any storms on Wednesday. Obviously, we'll keep an eye on it, but uh this looks to be an eastern quarter of the state type of situation at best. So, here in Phoenix, we stay pretty quiet. All right, here's Thursday. High temperatures again somewhere between about 101 to 106 across the lower deserts. Sunny too, mostly sunny sky continues. Isolated storms over the eastern part of the state, mainly in the afternoon hours. Here's Friday. Looks like that moisture starts to erode there. Again, could be an isolated storm right along the eastern border, but other than that, pretty quiet.

[00:07:00]Temperatures may lower just a little bit. A little weak upper low is going to sit down there to the south of us across northern Mexico. That's not really going to bring in any moisture here. Uh it's a dry look, but it'll dampen the height fields and bring temperatures down a degree or two as we head into the weekend. Highs 99 to 104 for the lower desert. Sunny sky continues. We'll see temps come down a little further as the ridge is knocked down a bit, troughing as well to the north and west of us. We see some rain across parts of the Pacific Northwest, uh Washington, Oregon, Idaho, maybe into Montana. Uh but of course we stay quiet here and high temperatures will fall back to the upper 90s to about 102 degrees. But that's pretty much right where we should be this time of year. All right, let's keep it going. This is a week from today, Monday the 8th. And again, we're pretty quiet.

[00:07:53]Ridging starts to reestablish here across the southwest. We see a pretty prominent upper low way to the west of us, well off the west coast. We're going to watch that feature. the models are handling that system with uh well quite differently among each individual deterministic model. And so we we'll get into that here in just a moment as well.

[00:08:14]But for now, it looks like we are going to stay dry as we move into next week as well. And temperatures could start to heat up if the GFS is right. The upper heights continue to climb and ridging is going to build right in a well pretty typical spot this time of year, right across northern Mexico, right along the southern border of our state. This is the end of the forecast period Wednesday the 10th of June. And if that's right, our old friend, yeah, our buddy, the 594 heat ridge is building in here across the Southwest. How you doing? How you doing, old friend? We saw way too much of you last year. uh and your your cousin the 597 and even the 600 uh decameter ridge. Yeah, we don't like you guys. But yep, that especially not in that position because that brings dry westerly flow here across the southwest and that pretty much puts a cap on any moisture from coming in. And so that would mean temperatures would be sizzling. We'd probably be well over 110° for our hottest desert spots if that were to verify. But I say if because that is by no means a for sure.

[00:09:20]Let me show you. This is the Euro AI model. This is next Tuesday the 9th. How about a closed low coming into California center just west of San Diego. Moving on in. This is Wednesday the 10th. Uh pretty contrasting looks. Uh height fields very different. If that's right, we might actually see a little bit of moisture get invected. Depending on how extensive that upper low gets at this point, what it would do is it would keep temperatures down. We'd have breezy conditions. Highs may actually be a few degrees below average if that's right.

[00:09:58]In terms of whether or not it would bring any moisture in here, well, strictly at face value, maybe not. But, you know, it really depends on how active the tropics get in the East Pacific over the next 10 days. It also depends on whether or not this can tap into just any moisture, any antecedent moisture across northern Mexico. And there's not a lot to be had down there right now. But obviously, when we see a setup like that, it's interesting. But, uh, you look, this is way out here at day nine and day 10, and obviously anything could happen out here. We are trudging into fantasy land. So, um, we'll just have to keep an eye on how model trends play. And right now there's there's huge discrepancies among the models. All right, looking at rainfall for Phoenix. This goes out through the 15th of June. This is off the GFS ensemble. The mean barely above zero.

[00:10:47]What do you expect? This this is the dry season. This is the driest time of the dry season, late May, early June.

[00:10:54]Historically speaking, there are some days on our calendar that have had only one day with measurable rain. There's actually one day on the calendar in 131 years that has recorded zero. absolutely nothing. No rain yet, nada. Here in Phoenix, and that's the 11th of June.

[00:11:10]There's only ever been a trace of rain on that day. Uh June 5th has only had one day with measurable rain. Several days with only two. So yeah, this is typically a very dry time in the South Central Deserts. Euro Ensemble, same story for the next 15 days, nothing. Uh Euro AI, same story.

[00:11:31]temperatures off the national blend of models at or above average and that's how it's going to be through the next 10 days. Hope you like the triple digits.

[00:11:39]Of course, that's where we're at.

[00:11:42]Listen, this is a reality. We're in summer now uh here across the Southwest.

[00:11:47]So, um outside of uh one of those rare but uh occasionally do happen kind of rainy, cloudy, cool, muggy days that we get in the uh in July and August where we don't make it to 100°. Uh this is going to be the story uh through September. All right. And those overnight lows are going to be gradually coming up later on as we go through June and especially as we head into July and August, especially once the humidity starts to pick up here later on in the summer. All right, let's look at that uh CPC outlook for the 8 to 14 day period.

[00:12:24]And if this is right, yeah, probability is heavily skewed toward above average temperatures. Not just here in Arizona because of course, but really across most of the contiguous United States.

[00:12:35]Above average temperatures are the favored outcome. Precipitation, yeah, we might see uh probabilities are skewed just a little bit toward above average for far eastern Arizona. That kind of jives with what we've been seeing on our models, but elsewhere near average precipitation, which this time of the year means very, very little. Now, let's get to what you are here for, and that is the monsoon predictions, the monsoon outlook. Now, the latest. Now, we've shown you this last week, but I'll just refresh you. For those of you that haven't seen it, first for the July, August, and September period, that's the majority of monsoon here across the Southwest. Uh temperatures are skewed toward above average probabilities here in Arizona and throughout the entire western United States. No surprise there. However, probabilities are favored toward above average precipitation across the entire state of Arizona with the most likely outcome of above average precipitation across the northern and northeastern part of Arizona around the four corners. And so really from southern California through Arizona, southern Nevada, New Mexico, yeah, above average precipitation is the favorite outcome from the guys over at CPC.

[00:13:51]Now, every year I do like to give my own thoughts because people ask me, "Well, Mike, what do you think?" Never mind what these weather geeks, well, never mind what the what um the government or other private enterprise thinks. We just want to know what you think. And thank you for asking. Uh but hey, I'm just another guy and anybody can throw darts at a dart board and give you their prediction. But hey, why not? So, here we go. This is the the average monsoon in Phoenix based on the 30-year climate averages. Uh shows 2.43 in of rain for a typical monsoon. Last year, we actually had slightly above average rainfall for the monsoon, but it was backloaded. Uh late August and September were very active. The first part of the monsoon was very quiet. Now, this is our surprise. Uh we have my forecast, but we also have a new model. It's not any model you've ever heard of because it is a model that I have been working on. And this cannot be emphasized enough. This is about as highly experimental as experimental modeling will get. Uh this is the numeric environmental rainfall distribution model or nerd and of course it's part of the Omega model, the operational meteorological engine for global analysis.

[00:15:12]And this is um this is something where now look I don't have access to a whole bunch of supercomputers. All right? You know I got a couple of nice computers in here one in particular uh but they cannot do those kind of uh physics parameters and calculations. I mean that is millions and billions and trillions of calculations that need to be done. So I had to develop my own equations, algorithms, uh input the analoges and then give different weights to different categories. For example, recent climate trends, uh analoges and so and of course current conditions and we put that in. Of course, historical data is weighted in there as well. Maybe not quite as much, but long-term data is in there. And there's a bunch of other variables that that were considered and put in. And then while that those inputs are human, I had to use our old friend AI to do the calculations because yeah, there's there's a lot going on there. So we had to use AI for that part. So this is a little bit human, a little bit AI calculations. And again, highly experimental. So what does the nerd what does the the nerd model say will happen for this monsoon here in Phoenix?

[00:16:29]Well, there you go. It actually shows below average precipitation. Just barely though. Um under 10% below average. So about about 90 92% of average for precipitation here. Uh with barely any rain, no rain in June, barely any for July, more in August, but still below average and above average in September.

[00:16:53]Uh which is what many of us do expect to happen. and the computer models, not just my own, but the actual legitimate computer models that are out there, uh, pretty much backload this monsoon season with wetter conditions deeper into August and September.

[00:17:11]Now, again, uh, we're going to run this again. This is actually is a model that I ran 500 times and I took the mean value. Uh, we had this is high variance model as well. There's there was huge model spread because of El Nino and the expected strong to very strong El Nino.

[00:17:30]So there you go. That is what um the old nerd model says. What is my prediction?

[00:17:37]A little bit different. Uh I believe about 3 in of rain here for the Phoenix area. Now again, I want to emphasize something else, too. Phoenix is a huge metro area. Uh this doesn't mean that you're going to get three inches. This this, you know, it's hard to come up with a grid point. People complain all the time about, oh, they measure the rain at the airport. Why do they do that? Why, you know, that's not an accurate measurement. I know, but rainfall has to be taken at an official location. And you know, rain at your house is going to be different than rain at somebody else's house. And sometimes, even if it's a mile away, the amount of rain can be very, very different. Um, so this is a really difficult forecast. I mean, if I had to ballpark it more in line with what I think will happen across the metro area, I'd say anywhere from 2.75 to 4 in, depending on where you are. Uh, the East Valley, the the north valley up along the the northern part of the Phoenix metro area, northern Maricopa is obviously probably going to see more uh than the southwest valley.

[00:18:36]But that's just an opinion and you know what they say about opinions. So, that is my Now, here's something else to tease going forward. We'll do this again for uh the Flagstaff area. We'll show you that tomorrow. And then on Wednesday's video, we'll give you my Tucson outlook. And let me just say this, we use the nerd model there. Very interesting results in those locations.

[00:19:00]And we again, we'll run this again June 15th. We'll run it again July 1st, and we'll see where we are at.

[00:19:08]All right, folks. There you go. That is our monsoon outlook. I know, very exciting. I'm sure you are all eagerly awaiting that. Uh what Mike thinks, but I do believe the monsoon will be backloaded as well. August uh June and July are going to be it's going to be a little bit of a struggle here. And by the way, I want to say this. I hope I'm wrong. I hope this is an extremely wet monsoon. I hope it's, you know, we get like 1984's monsoon. I hope it's, you know, over 9 ines of rain here in Phoenix. I'd love to see that. But reality is I don't know if that's going to happen. But uh I want the nerd model to be wrong and I want I want the CPC outlook and my outlook to be the accurate ones. We will see.

[00:19:53]All right folks, that's going to do it for the Phoenix Arizona weather discussion for today. My next video is due back here tomorrow morning. And should you happen to enjoy these videos, be sure to subscribe, like, share, click that notification bell, leave those comments, questions, and suggestions. If you really enjoy these videos, you want to support the channel, well, by all means, click that thanks icon below the video here on YouTube. And I want to just take a moment to uh acknowledge uh somebody, a legend, uh for helping us out, and that is Mr. Gary Schroeder.

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[00:23:31][music] Heat. Heat.

[00:23:53][music]