Super El Niño is coming. What does it mean for Atlantic Canada?

Añadido: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]A so-called super El Niño is coming, and it will have some interesting impacts on Atlantic Canada. El Niños typically occur every two to seven years when temperatures are warmer than average in the East Central Pacific. However, this El Niño looks like it will be one of the strongest on record. A stronger El Niño likely means the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will be quieter than normal. That might seem odd because warmer ocean temperatures usually mean more tropical storms and hurricanes, but not necessarily with a strong El Niño.

[00:00:33]Tropical storms and hurricanes like to develop straight up and down. Warm, moist air rises into the storm, fueling it, and then it's fanned out through the top of the system. This flow allows more air to come in and replace it with more fuel from the warm ocean waters below.

[00:00:49]But when El Niño is at its strongest, which is expected this fall, the warm temperatures in the Pacific cause strong mid to upper-level winds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. That wind shear tilts the storm system, cutting off that energy flow, which really limits their strength and development. The latest NOAA hurricane outlook reflects this phenomenon.

[00:01:11]This doesn't mean we won't see hurricanes. It just means there will likely be fewer storms than normal, which improves our chances of not seeing one move up the coast and into Atlantic Canada. But remember, it only takes one big storm to move in and cause damage.

[00:01:27]So, if El Niño brings warm temperatures, what happens to winter in Atlantic Canada? Well, for a typical El Niño, it can be a coin flip for winter temperatures, but with a super El Niño, the odds of a warmer than average winter really increase. Let's look back at some winters impacted by super El Niños. All of them were far warmer than average across most of the country. This map shows temperature anomalies for the winter of 2016. The darker the orange and red, the warmer the winter temperatures. It was a similar story for the winter of 1998 and the winter of 1983.

[00:02:02]So, there's a good chance this winter as a whole will be warmer than average.

[00:02:07]There will still be cold air, you will still need a shovel, but if the El Niño is strong, then the chances are there will be less snow than last winter. The orange and brown colors shown in this map indicate the chances of above average snow during a super El Niño winter based on the past four events.

[00:02:24]The list of super El Niños is super short. Since official record keeping began in 1950, 2015 into 16, 1997 into 98, 1982 into 83 are the strongest recent events with 1972 into 73 also climbing into that super territory. Not only could this upcoming El Niño event rival those years, some models are projecting this event could be the strongest since 1877, which is one of the most powerful and devastating climate events in recorded history. El Niño's impacts will peak late this year and continue right into next year, increasing the chances of heat waves, drought, and wildfires for Canada and other parts of the world. Coupled with an already warming planet, this super El Niño will very likely make 2027 the warmest on record for planet Earth. Ryan Snodden, CBC News, Halifax.