Iran Intimidation Has Failed /Professor Seyed Marandi

本站添加: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]The Americans wanted to see if they could intimidate Iran and to see if Iran had been weak because it seems that the Americans continue to believe the propaganda that is being fed that Iran is falling apart. The the siege is collapsing Iranian society. Perhaps the Mousad is continuing to feed the sort of fake information that they did that actually brought about the war in the first place. That is one interpretation of events that Trump was hoping that maybe Iran was weakened and this was some sort of litmus test to see if maybe the Iranians would back down and let this happen or that the Iranians would be intimidated that American ships are going to be involved. But the Iranians were very steadfast and they said that either the straight of hormos is open to us and of course the ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza are are implemented or it's not going to be open to these five countries.

[00:00:56]But again, as I said, other countries still use the straight those countries that are not in conflict with Iran. So the the belief is that this was some sort of test to see if the Iranians would be intimidated by the threats made by the United States and obviously they weren't.

[00:01:12]>> With uh Sergey Lavrov in his experience with the the country he's fighting against the war against in Ukraine when you hear him talking he'll be very firm on the Russian side but he's very diplomatic in how he engages even with the Ukrainian side. A couple of days ago here, uh, we had Marco Rubio who refers to Iran in a rather disparaging way.

[00:01:33]>> So, look, the time's come for Iran to make a sensible choice. And it's not easy for them to do that obviously because they have a fracture in their own leadership system. And apart from that, I mean, the top people in that government are, to say the least, um, you know, um, they're insane in the brain.

[00:01:50]>> I mean, what what is that something you just dismiss? Does it have an impact when you're told that you must be insane in the brain for all your leaders?

[00:02:01]>> Well, I don't know if he really believes any of this or not. And that's the that's the disturbing part because when they say there's a division in the leadership, I mean like how where where does the division arise from? Uh we have a leader. We have a supreme national security council. The Supreme National Cons Security Council is comprised of the speaker of parliament and the head of the judiciary and of course the president leads the council. He's the head of that council. There's a chair who is appointed by uh an agreement between the leader and the president and then you have the military, you have members of cabinet depending on what the issue is. So if it's foreign policy obviously it's the foreign minister. You have and you have parliamentarians that are linked again to the to the issue in this case it would be foreign policy and the supreme national security council whatever it decides if the leader approves that's it and they've decided that the negotiator is the speaker of parliament so where is the fracture where where are the divisions where are the you know the purges like in the US like in the uh in the Pentagon where we had generals, I don't know, removed from power, the secretary of the Navy removed or uh Kent uh Joe Kent resigning or we don't have any of that.

[00:03:30]There's not a single instance that I know of at least.

[00:03:33]>> So, I don't know if he really believes this, but this is like the narrative that they repeat. But I do sort of believe I I do believe that in many cases they internalize the narrative.

[00:03:43]They they believe their own propaganda.

[00:03:45]They keep saying it and then they ultimately believe it. And I think that's that's um that's more I think that's a a bigger problem than many people actually think. But to call Iranian leaders insane, it I mean I don't think Iranian leaders are sitting down in in anger and they pro they're probably all laughing. But it does make them negotiate tougher. It makes Iran tougher towards the United States. So threats and insults uh I think the Americans really misread Iran completely. Iran is not like I mean the the problem I think that Trump has is that his his mafialike behavior you know the mafia don where he goes to India and says you know if you don't uh you know he gives the Indians an offer they can't refuse on tariffs and then they bow down. He goes and kidnaps the Venezuelan president, murders a couple of hundred people in the process and then he he poses, you know, he threatens the Europeans. In the case of Iran, that's not going to work.

[00:04:54]And the more he does that, the more the Iranians are going to be uh steadfast at the negotiating table. Iran is very different from these other countries. I mean, except for China, I guess. I mean Russia's already been completely sanctioned. So that's a different case altogether. But in the case of China when he engaged in trade warfare, the Chinese hit back, but no one else did. So I think he was very surprised um by Iran and I think that's because of his ignorance, but also because I think many politicians in the United States, if not all of them, they've drunk the Kool-Aid. They they believe the nonsense that Iran is weak, that it's divided, that it's corrupt, that they're mad mullas, and whatever that means. I I have no idea what what they mean by mad mullas. I mean, uh the president is a is a hard surgeent. The speaker of parliament, the chief negotiator is an associate professor at my university. Uh the cabinet, they're all engineers and doctors and philosophers that Dr. L Jani who was the chair of the Supreme National Security Council. He was a professor at my university before he was murdered and and martyed. He was a professor in philosophy, western philosophy. So you know you know this whole you know this whole mad mulla the military they're not they're their officers like yourself.

[00:06:21]They were they were you know their officers and trained at militarymies.

[00:06:26]So they believe their propaganda. It's imploding. the people hate them and so that makes them believe that all they have to do is give it a little push and it'll collapse. So if you recall, I'm sure that at the beginning of the 12- day war, they said it's over and Trump back then said Iran, you know, demanded unconditional surrender. But even after the 12- day war, when Iran defeated the Israelis, they the American government didn't learn. So when they brought in ma much more weapons that dwarfed whatever the Israeli regime had which was all American anyway but uh then they came in and after 39 days of war they failed against the country against the armed forces against Iran and still they don't learn. So they think, okay, now we're going to defeat them through the siege and we're going but if they're if they're winning in this siege warfare and you know we saw American senators saying we're starving them there's no food sort of gloating at you know starving about starving Iranians which is disgusting but uh but no one's starving in Iran you know they believe their own nonsense but >> well in fact in fact professor I I want to show you one of the things President Trump said Gary we're going to play the one that says Trump one down there. Uh this is this is how President Trump squares that circle that you're talking about. Here's how his mental construct is and what he believes.

[00:07:54]>> You seem optimistic now as you may be closer to a deal. What's different about this moment now than in other moments where a deal has seemed close.

[00:08:01]>> Well, why do you say they refuse to submit? You don't know that. You don't know what's going on a few days ago.

[00:08:07]>> Yeah, I know. A few days ago is a long time ago. You know, in the world of war a few days ago. No, they want to make a deal badly and we'll see if we get there. If we get there, they can't have nuclear weapons. You know, it's very simple, but uh what's not to submit? So, they had a navy with 159 ships and now every ship is blown to pieces and lying at the bottom of the water. They had an air force, lots of planes, and they don't have any planes. They don't have any anti-aircraft.

[00:08:33]They don't have any radar left. Uh their missiles are mostly decimated. They have some. They have probably 18 19% but uh not a lot by comparison to what they had and their leaders are all dead.

[00:08:46]So I think we won.

[00:08:49]So he in his mind we won already. So how do you respond to the to the claim that all these elements of the national security capabilities of Iran has been destroyed or defeated and that the siege is starving everybody and soon they're going to have to collapse. How do you respond to that?

[00:09:07]Well, yesterday I was on Pierce Morgan's show and uh he was saying the same thing that Iran's armed forces are destroyed and everything's wiped out and and he brought some person on the show and that person, you know, said all these things and he said I I agree with him and I said, "Well, then why didn't you just take over?" He said, you know, and that that person said for political reasons, they're not taking over the straight of hormones. And I said, "Why didn't you just take over then? If why are you even interviewing me? I asked Pierce Morgan.

[00:09:39]I mean, if it's over, what's the what's the need to speak with me? You you've won. Go and take over the country and you you can expel us from our land like you did to the Palestinians. And then he said, Piers Morgan said that's what Trump may want to do. So like create another Israel or something. But that's not happening. I mean, it's obvious that uh Trump lost the war. uh the Iranian state is very much there, the armed forces are there. I mean if after 39 days Trump accepted Iran's 10-point plan as the framework for negotiations that was the ultimate humiliation and defeat and after he was criticized heavily by everyone he his spokeswoman said no we threw it in the bin but Iran is negotiating based on those uh 10 principles and Iran has said that we're not negotiating the nuclear program until we have this sorted out. So, you know, and again, the the siege, if the siege is working, then why uh Project Freedom? If all you have to do is sit back and wait for, you know, Trump, all he has to do is sit back and wait for us to starve.

[00:10:47]>> But obviously, >> and sorry, one other thing I I'll point out here. This is in the news just since we've been on the air uh earlier today here. This is in the Washington Post. US intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump's Hormuz blockade for months. a confidential intelligence assessment delivered to the White House also finds that Iran retains a substantial missile and drone uh arsenal which directly contradicts what he said from the Oval Office. So again, unfortunately, how can an American audience believe anything that our own president says when it's contradicted by now leaked intelligence?

[00:11:23]But then that gets back to the whole point of where can this go? If that's the truth, and according to what you're telling me it is, that Iran can outlast the siege and that they do still have military capacity, then what kind of a negotiated deal can we have to end this war?

[00:11:40]>> Well, you know, your problem is that you're talking about like in a sane world.

[00:11:49]>> Fair enough. You're assuming that we're talking about logical people and you want me to go into the head of someone who I think is somewhat insane and a psychopath and hopefully I'll never be in that situation to where I can comprehend such a person. I don't I don't have an answer to your question and I'm sure I'm sure that's the problem that you know all your good analysts because you you bring people better than I on your show and I've seen your show and I like I really do like your show a lot and you know people who are better than I haven't been able to provide an answer so I'm not going to pretend I know anything that your your other guests you know have been unable to uh provide a good answer for. I I think that ultim I mean I think that there's a high chance that Trump will uh that he will gamble.

[00:12:45]I'm not saying it will happen, but I think that there's a because he's brought in a lot of troops and a lot of uh of weapons and ammunition. And true, there's a huge shortage of ammunition and all that, but he's most of the from from what I'm hearing from people here, most of the new equipment that he's brought in are is is for land operations.

[00:13:10]And uh so he spent a lot of money and I'm sure uh and I'm sure it's not just to to bluff. So there must be a high possibility for an attack. Now, personally, I think it's too late for an attack. And I I think we discussed this earlier once when and I asked you because you're you're you're the expert and you are I mean I I fought in war but you are trained you were a trained uh senior officer so you would know much better than I was saying that when the weather becomes very hot in the in the Arabian Peninsula at the end of May or from midmay uh it go it increases very fast and it becomes very bad very difficult by the end of May. it becomes very difficult to to fight and uh American forces would it would be very you know uh it would be very tough on them and I recall you acknowledging that this this was this would be the case and then if for example there is heavy fighting and they and Trump does start targeting Iran's critical infrastructure as he's threatened to do and let's say take begins to take out Iranian u electrical power plants in Iran in Iran there like I don't know 80 to 100 of them but then on the other side the Persian Gulf and in Israeli regime Iran will do the same and you know in the Israeli regime well that will cause a set of problems uh but in the Persian Gulf it would be catastrophic because on in those in that weather people will all have to leave and so will the US armed forces I mean how could they stay there if there's no electricity so and then you have the trip to Beijing or to China I don't if the the summit will be in Beijing or somewhere else, but the trip to China that is in in a week. So, you would think that this is not the right time to carry out a war because it would not have a good impact on the summit in China. And of course, after the summit, you're going to have uh the weather getting worse by the day. But then again, this is Trump. And uh so I I from my from what I'm hearing from people on your show and from my our mutual friends who I'm in contact with, they tell me that the military is saying that this is a very terrible idea. Uh but Trump and the you know remember Joe I mean you remember but uh Joe Kent in his resignation letter it was two months ago he said this war was about the Zionist lobby. I mean there's no nuclear weapon.

[00:15:58]Uh Iran is not developing one. Trump just says this to to justify the atrocities. Uh Iran is not a threat to the United States. Trump keeps saying Iran is going to make a nuclear weapon.

[00:16:09]just fire them off across the world and bring the world to an end somehow. Uh and that sort of nonsense. He was saying it to little kids a couple of days ago, which is bizarre. Uh but um terrifying little kids, but you know, they bomb kids, so I guess that's okay. But um so when Joe Kent is saying that this is about the Israeli regime and the Zionist lobby, then I think that we should throw rationality out the window. Their priority is not the American people.

[00:16:40]Their priority is not the Indian economy or the Ugandan economy or the Argentinian people. It's about the Israeli regime. So they want this war and I think that's why there's a good chance that there will be war. Now the calculations in Iran at least among some because I can't say I'm that's what the everyone is saying some people including myself uh is that if the economic situation becomes more tough for the United States at some point senior figures in the United States will start thinking well here we have to prioritize our interest over the Israeli regime's interests until now the United States has prioritizing the Israeli regime's interests over the American people. And that's why we're seeing inflation and and uh and and the rise of energy costs and so on. But at some point I think the feeling here is that maybe uh it will get hard difficult enough where the the White House or the elites will start saying this is going to get dangerous uh in the United States because if the economy gets really bad then there could be unrest and then hopefully at that point the decision makers will say well here we have to put the our interest first and then the Israeli regime will have to accept our priorities and that would bring an end to the war. In other words, the United States will not I don't think we're going to have peace between Iran and the United States. U sadly, I don't see that pos as being possible with this the elites in the United States thinking and their mentality and their worldview as it is uh you know this Epstein class of people that are in charge. But but I think that we could reach a point where uh there's some sort of agreement to end the war where um the siege is lifted, ships go through, there's a ceasefire in Gaza and the Israeli regime is forced to withdraw from Lebanon and certain conditions are imposed in Gaza. Something like that. I think that is possible. So, so it sounds to me like, tell me if I'm I'm hearing this right, it sounds like the Iranian side is is basically saying, "We're not in a hurry. We're going to let some time pass by to see if we can put more pressure on you." But there is a sense of urgency on the US side. Now, after President Trump made that statement in the White House yesterday, uh there was an article out in the Wall Street Journal, which I'll show you a bit of here. U many of the things that it says that now then this this all came out after he spoke yesterday. It says that Iran's uh has to test that it's not going to get nuclear weapons, a ban on nuclear uh enrichment, dismantlement of fordo nans, and several other things.

[00:19:32]Then that was me uh echoed on something that was on Fox News last night with Brett Bear and Jesse Waters. Brett Bearer said he talked to President Trump and his terms hardened. Watch this.

[00:19:43]>> Had a phone call with the president short time ago and he is optimistic about this deal, this memorandum of understanding. thinks it is going to lead to things. He's cautiously optimistic, I should say. Um, but thinks, and I asked him what the time frame would be. He puts it at a week.

[00:20:00]>> Um, getting everything wrapped up.

[00:20:03]>> So, what's in this deal? This is what we're hearing. Iran must swear off ever having or seeking a nuclear weapon. Cold turkey. Their three main nuke sites must be completely dismantled. And they can never do any work like this ever again underground. If they start digging, we start bombing. Inspections on demand anytime, anywhere. If they throw up roadblocks, harsh penalties. Now, here's the key piece to the deal. No more enrichment. And they hand over all of their enriched uranium. We get it. Now, those are just abject surrender. I mean, you have to give up everything and you get literally nothing except for we'll open up the straight of hormones and you can ship stuff out again. Is there any scenario whereby Iran would agree to any version of that?

[00:20:55]>> Well, when I I I never watch Fox News, but when I do see this sort of thing, it's like I I find it amazing that anyone does watch it. And when they say that this is like the most watched news channel in the United States, I you know it's just I I can't comprehend how anyone would find it of any use. First of all, as we know, Iran has never been pursuing nuclear weapons. Joe Kent, you know, intell the Fox News guy says Iran's weapon sites, they keep repeating this as if, you know, it's take it's taken for granted that Iran has nuclear weapons. They know they're lying, but they just say it because it's propaganda. That's that's how it works.

[00:21:35]You keep talking about their nuclear weapon sites, their weapon sites, the weapon sites, and then it becomes weapon sites. And and by the way, they're all obliterated. We were told that during the, you know, the 12- day war, they're all obliterated. So, you know, which one is it? at the ultimately we, you know, for me it's like we don't even Fox News viewers have any critical thinking without looking at like your show or other uh programs.

[00:22:03]Just looking at the inconsistencies, you'd think that some of them at least would have some sense of critical thought. No, Iran is not going to accept uh any uh infringements on its on its sovereignty. That's the whole that the reason why we have this war is because Iran is a so I mean the 1979 revolution was about independence and sovereignty and dignity and honor and uh and of course support for uh the Palestinian people, support for the Cuban people, support for for the South African people at that time was apartheid and all of these were just outrageous positions for Iran to take especially the Palestinian issue more I mean more important than anything else for them but that is really Iran's sin it's all about it's all about the Palestinian people and Iran's independence but no Iran is not going to accept any of that Iran is willing to have a deal but we saw Iran's 10point plan that Trump accepted as the framework none of this so Iran will have a nuclear program yes Iran says it won't have nuclear weapons and it's fine to have a deal where if they want to have a you know mechanism where the international atomic energy agency comes and visits all the sites that's that we had that for many years. It was Trump that tore that up.

[00:23:30]It wasn't actually wasn't a particularly good deal for Iran and I think that the administration at that time did not do a good job negotiating the JCPOA and I think President Roani was first and foremost to blame because he was pressuring the foreign ministry to quickly get a deal and so the foreign ministry was forced to be lenient and they we you know and then that allowed uh Obama to cheat Iran because Iran uh carried out commitments and Obama didn't and but so so the deal was deeply flawed. Iran was will never allow for that deal to be revived. it will have to be improved. But Iran is willing to have a deal where its rights are preserved, but it's uh um it's uh it's easy for everyone to see that it's peaceful. But uh but other than that, you know, things for will be the 10-point plan.