Everyone is Wrong about Inflation (SHORT BITCOIN SOON)

Ajouté : 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]Yeah.

[00:00:29]warning. This video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind.

[00:00:36]Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. Right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and today I want to talk a little bit about inflation. I want to talk a little bit about Bitcoin and then we'll hop into some charts and check on some live trades and positions as always. And I also want to talk when we get there a little bit about taking some semiconductor profit here. So without further ado, I'm sure you guys probably saw because it was all over my Twitter timeline yesterday. The CPI has risen to 3.8%, right? The highest level since May. And I've seen bad takes everywhere.

[00:01:07]Okay. And we're just going to spend a brief moment talking about this. Core CPI also rose to 2.8 which was above the 2.7. And a lot of people are saying this is now postpandemic levels of inflation and it's because of surging oil prices.

[00:01:21]And we're even going to be talking about Fed rate hikes now. Okay. And I see things like this everywhere I look.

[00:01:26]People are like, you know, since February, we've gone from 2.4 to 3.3 to 3.8% year-over-year. Okay. Just from February to April. So, I'm not sure what the immaculate disinflation narrative is, but it's been dead for a while, allegedly. Okay? And people are saying, "Oh, deflation is a risk. They're awfully quiet now." No, they are not.

[00:01:45]Okay? There was very few of us to begin with. Honestly, and I said this with as much respect as possible. This is a completely brain dead take. Let me explain and justify why this is brain dead. Okay? First of all, this inflation narrative is dead. No, it is not. This is the peak of inflation and this is a downtrend, a series of lower highs and lower lows. Okay? This is disinflation by definition. There's no death of the disinflation narrative here. Okay? This is disinflationary. Now, I truly understand that absolute inflation continues to move higher. Okay? The compounding effect of inflation continues to erode people's purchasing power. I completely understand and empathize with that. Practically everyone I know suffers from this exact same thing. Okay? Practically everyone I know talks about how their gas prices are going up, how petrol in the car is more expensive, how bread in the supermarket is more expensive, how people are on significantly more money than they were 5 or 6 years ago, but yet they feel poorer. Okay? But that is not what we are talking about here. That is not what we're measuring here. Okay?

[00:02:49]That is a completely different conversation. And the problem I see all around me is people want to conflate the two. They want to say, "Well, I'm earning more than I was 5 years ago, but I still feel poorer." I I'm not disputing that. And this chart does not dispute that either. Okay? When you say, "Oh, petrol is now two pound a liter in the garage." Okay? And a few years back or, you know, 3 years back it was half that. I'm not disputing that either.

[00:03:14]Okay? I believe you when you say your energy bills have gone up because mine have gone up as well. But to say there is no disinflation or that disinflation is a narrative when this chart is just down and to the right is misinformation.

[00:03:28]It's just a lie. It's complete nonsense.

[00:03:30]Okay, this is a disinflationary trend and until that trend changes, it will remain in disinflation. I also want to point out for the longer time viewers of the channel. Every single time we got one of these pops to the upside, okay, we got a few wobbly prints. Every single time the deflation is dead crew came alive, didn't they? And the trolls came out. They were very nasty about it. And every single time I said, "Look, nothing moves in straight lines. Charts don't move in straight lines, okay? We get an uptrend followed by a pullback, then an uptrend, and a pullback." Okay? Same for the downtrends. And the same is true of macro data sets. Longtime viewers of the channel have heard me say this a million times. Okay? This is still nothing more than a counter trend wobble within the context of a disinflationary trend. In addition to this, okay, people simply do what I always tell them not to do. They look at the headline data and they go, "Oh, it's 3.8% camel, like deflation is dead. Oh, it's first of all, no one believes the 3.8%. Second of all, I'm still here to tell you that this is a Fed inflation scop. The markets don't even believe the prints anymore. If we really were at 3.8% and we really were out of disinflation, do you think the markets would be behaving like they are on these hot prints?" No, of course not.

[00:04:41]Now, let's be serious about this, okay?

[00:04:43]Because it's not okay to just say, "Oh, you're wrong about disinflation or disinflation is a narrative." It's not okay to say that. It's not okay to say, "My bread's more expensive, so camel, you're wrong." It's not okay. Let's talk about this like serious investors, like a serious individual, like somebody who is not just here as a tourist thinking they're going to speculate and win big overnight. Okay? Let's talk about this as a professional. Why is inflation a scop? Okay? Because they are reporting 3.8% 8% when we've got massive divergence between shelter, which is what they use, versus a real-time metric like ALNRI. So, everyone that says inflation is sticky or going up or disinflation is a narrative or whatever else is a mindcontrolled puppet being forced to drink the Kool-Aid. And again, this is not my opinion, okay? This is not up for debate. Here's the matter of fact. In Blue is the shelter. Okay, look how sticky this thing makes the CPI basket look. When we use their flawed lagging metric, Shelter, by the way, is up 3.3% year-over-year, it makes the CPI data look sticky. But when we substitute it for a real-time metric like ALRI here, okay, in red, ALRI is down minus 1.65% year-over-year. Now, it's common knowledge. Even the people that don't understand inflation and are talking about disinflation being an idea even though it's clearly visible. Okay? Even those people will tell you that shelter is a flawed metric. Even those people understand shelter lags and they understand the waiting of shelter in the basket is too heavy. Everyone knows that. Absolutely everyone. And yet they still go, "Oh, 3.8%." Right? Oh, it's sticky. It's not sticky. Look right here. Look at the divergence between shelter and a real-time metric. Okay, shelter is five pps above the actual market rents. So inflation is hot, right? Inflation is sticky. No, no, no, no, no. It's just there's probably 10 people on the entirety of Twitter that understand inflation. Okay, the Fed is lying to you and so is your favorite influencer on Twitter. Over in the world of insanity, Trump is about to meet with the president of China to request deals between the following people and China's president she Elon Musk video CEO Apple CEO Black Rockck CEO Blackstone often confused with Black Rockck because they're the people that I believe are out there buying all the retail family homes. Boeing Cargill City Group, General Electric, Goldman Sachs, Micron, Qualcomm. There are also allegedly many other CEOs joining him on the trip who have not yet been disclosed. Never in history has such a trip remotely near this scale and caliber occurred. So this upcoming Trump China meeting is far bigger than most realize. Now, I'll be honest, as always, I don't really care about the narrative, right? I don't really care. Cycles in control. I think we all kind of figured that out by now, right? But this really did peique my interest. What do you think they're working on here? Cuz to me, this has like a this just has a sprinkle of reset in it. This has a sprinkle of one world order, one world taxation, one world currency. This has a sprinkle of everyone's got to have a digital passport or a digital thing on their phone, right? Everyone's going to be connected and everyone's probably gonna have some sort of point scoring system.

[00:07:51]I don't know. Is the Tim 4 hat on too tight? I would love to know what you guys think. Please do take a look at this. Please do let me know in the comments what you think. But this to me, I don't think this is good for business to be honest. I don't especially with a current setup in the stock market. I don't think this is just, oh, we need to create some sort of agreement because the stock market's not high enough.

[00:08:10]Okay, the the stock market is so high I'm getting dizzy. So, I don't think that's what this is. I don't think this is just the art of the deal. I think this probably has some more sinister implications. I'm just not really sure I'm smart enough to figure out what. So, if anyone's got any thoughts on that, please do let me know. I posted this the other day and I turned the comments off because I I'm not going to go through them. You guys can go through them if you're interested. It's on my Twitter profile from the 11th of May here. But I said, "Look, Bitcoin, I intend to buy the low around the 28th of May.

[00:08:37]Hopefully at around 60K." And this shouldn't have been a surprise because isn't that just this yellow squiggle that we've been talking about every single day, right? But somehow, like I said, I had turned the comments off because I've never seen so much weird confusion. I've never seen so many weird reactions to that. I've never seen so many people making false accusations. It was kind of weird. So, if you're interested in sentiment, I know most people don't care. That's why I'm moving on from here. You can go and read that.

[00:09:02]But pretty interesting replies if you ask me. I also found this. Okay. Koshi 50% chance being priced in in the prediction markets at the moment that Bitcoin falls below 60K. Now, why is that so hilarious? Because 50% is probably what I would give it as well.

[00:09:17]No one's got any clue. 50% is a coin flip, right? It might, but it also might not. I would think as this late May cycle low shows up, we'll get to learn something either way. I think we'll be able to get a much higher probability read on the market as to whether or not 60K is in jeopardy of being breached after we've seen the upcoming cycle low.

[00:09:35]But I think it is so funny because, you know, I see people every day talking about, oh, everyone's calling for 60K to be the lows. I see people every day saying the complete opposite. Everyone's saying one more low and go. Everyone's saying target 40K in October and whatever it is. And realistically, is 50/50, right? No one knows anything. And that's what I've been preaching on this channel. you know something materially has to change otherwise we just have to sit back and let it play out right we have to let the chart paint some more structure and then we can use that structure to derive probabilistic direction but in the meantime it still looks like this okay and I'm kind of on BB's side here he says bulls skip this post right after 27 weeks in a bare market we have barely recovered 1/3 of what we lost and the noobs are celebrating like we just hit a new alltime high I hate to say it I agree I agree long-term resistance of SMA 200 has been rejected Again, that's on the daily time frame and we'll show you the weekly one in just a minute. Many signals are coming together which make it absurd for this to be a new bull market. Again, this is what I've been talking about. Okay, I would love to be wrong on this and I've got a bullish chart to show you next, which is I think potentially the max paying trade, but right now I do agree, right? It seems absurd to call this a new bull market this early. It is 50/50. And this is how you know cuz the prediction markets haven't got a clue which way to bet, right? It does feel a lot like the industry is so wrecked and desperate that they're calling anything a super cycle now, right? This just anything they can do rather than accept that they probably shouldn't have picked altcoins this cycle and nobody could have seen that coming and blah blah blah blah, right? So again, tell us where we got this wrong, right? What exactly are we missing? And no one's got a reasonable answer to this yet, right? Because it's too early to say, but in 27 weeks, we are not even a third of the way back up to the top. We've been stuck here for 10 days now. I think 10 or 11 days at the failed weekly cycle around 80K. We're still below the 200 daily SMA. This is the weekly 200 SMA which we're still before and sits at about 94,700 bucks. It does feel an awful lot like something like this could well be play here. However, there's also this scenario which I actually do think is probably max pain here, right? What if this is the thing that plays out? I saw Christian Shafoy post this first.

[00:11:40]Imagine how difficult this would be to deal with, right? If we pop up and make yet another higher high, every man and his dog will say, "Bitcoin's never done that before." And they'll be right.

[00:11:49]They'll be absolutely right. In a month 35 high, corrected 50 odd percent and then went back up to a new all-time high. Okay? Everyone calling a bottom here would be like, "Ha, told you so.

[00:11:59]You were wrong." Right? There's the all-time high. Even the bears can only really stay bearish till somewhere where my cursor is, right? 100 110. If it goes much past 110, you haven't really got any credibility being a bear at this point. Okay? At that point, you have to admit that you've missed a big move and it's now time to start to buy higher lows. And and that's okay. You don't have to snipe every bottom, particularly for long-term trend followers, right? If this was a real bull market for the next 3 years, then was it matter whether you get in here or here? But the point is simply this. Everyone that called the bottom here, that 50% of the market that thinks the bottom's in, once it gets to new highs, they're going to be like, "Yes, told you so. We were right." Every single bear in here that's calling for some sort of lower high is basically invalidated at 110K. they're going to start to flip long and then we just get a sweep of the high again and roll over.

[00:12:46]Now, everyone that called the bottom here will use that all-time high to justify holding on, okay? They're going to hold their long positions and even buy every dip on the way down because they're going to say, "That was the bottom. It's clearly the bottom. That's why we made new highs." All the bears that have missed this move will be like, "Oh, there's my higher low pullback, right? Oh, well, you know, I should have bought 60, 70, 80, 90K, and instead now I've got a dip at 100 or 110K. I'm going to buy all these dips in here expecting new highs. And then the market just rolls over and does what? A four-year cycle low at the end of the year.

[00:13:19]Meaning practically the only thing that actually stayed true was we got a major monthly pivot at the end of the year inside the timing window. Right? That would be the only thing that would be consistent. Everything else would be completely different and everyone else would be wrong because it was wrong in this instance to be bearish here because we ran to new highs. But it was wrong to be bullish here because this was really just the final tie before a bare market decline into a four-year cycle low. Who technically wins? Well, I would argue practically no one. If you're a bear that held it and rode it all the way down, you'll get away with this so long as you can sell here. Although, once we're up here, everyone's going to be saying that's it. The bare market lows in super cycled to 300K, right? It's going to be super hard to sell this.

[00:13:59]Super super hard to sell this. So, again, let me know what you think, right? It's just so crazy. It could work. I mean, I'm still not pivoting from my current stance here because I don't think I need to. Okay, I don't think I need to until we start to do this sort of area here. We do this and then push off. And in here, I'm got got to accept that this is very different to prior bare markets. But right now, it isn't. That's the That's the truth.

[00:14:20]Right now, especially if it just rolls over from here into a daily cycle low, just like my yellow downside squiggle here, then to be honest, everything's normal and to be expected and everything in the meantime has just been mindless and needless speculation, right? But at the end of the day, that's what we do here, right? we speculate on markets. So anyway, I think that concludes my presentation. I am looking for short setups in the next few sessions, okay?

[00:14:41]Sometime in the next week or so. I largely suspect we see the top for Bitcoin this week, but it could be early next week and then I'm expecting a decline. It doesn't have to be as low as I've got it here, although that's what I'm expecting. If it forms a higher low, then we can talk about other ideas. But for now, I'm just sticking with this because I don't really need to change, right? We've been saying for weeks and weeks and weeks now, months even. It could retest 80 and it could maybe go 85k and then I expect it to roll over and punt for a daily cycle low and a weekly cycle low. So, I don't see why I need to change that since that's exactly what it's doing. The stock market is still making me dizzy up here as I said earlier. But, it's a case of just being long and strong and seeing what happens.

[00:15:16]Even with the dodgy CPI print, right, which again under the hood, the market understands, like it doesn't believe it either. We're still kind of doing all right, aren't we? Still holding up. We still got pretty decent strength bouncing off of support in the small caps. The semiconductors are still above support. So I was looking in the JISER.

[00:15:31]The JISER, this trade in the JICE is up something like 46% as of yesterday, which has put the entire portfolio up about 16% just in this one trade, which is pretty nice. So I think I'm going to have to lock that down pretty soon here because that will just massively bolster the performance into year end. Then if the SIGJ trade that I've got in there or SG cuz I use the UK equivalent can do approximately a double from my entry in there then I think that'll pretty much outperform all the benchmarks in two trades in the JISER and that's not including the TT trade which I expect to be earning the income from the dividends and start to mark up later in life. So it' be pretty funny if we can like outperform most professional hedge funds managers using three or four trades in the Jiser.

[00:16:14]But yeah anyway I don't want to get ahead of myself. I don't want to start promising returns or anything like that.

[00:16:19]I do just want to point out that, you know, one more higher high here and that pretty much cements that we're going to be nailing down this MG trade and the semiconductors. If you're a level three member, I'll notify you in real time.

[00:16:29]Uh, I'll record a JC video and upload it with a few days delay. And I expect to start to dump this out of the long-term accounts as soon as I see the first big red candle. This isn't quite big enough.

[00:16:38]You know, if we open today, lower down again, then we'll cut the trade. But something tells me we're going to have a little bit more push here. uh maybe for one or two days before then we'll see the actual top come in. Other than that, did we cover gold? I don't think we did.

[00:16:51]No changes though, right? We just sort of daily cycle low. Looking for a flag, looking for a push. Silver is continuing to lead here, which is nice. Okay, the indicator again just helped us find both of these trades, right? It painted the window. What have I done here? Both of these counts. Oh, okay. I've got a modified count on. Hold on. There we go.

[00:17:09]Change that. For anyone that doesn't know, if you are trading like we were using this in the slice Q&A the other day, the slice ticker request and somebody asked me to apply the indicator to an energy stock and because it's an energy stock, you're better off running a modified count rather than the default settings. So, we put the oil count on and then it made the count way better.

[00:17:28]So, I better take that off since we've got optimized counts in play here, which is good. And now you can see it all fits. So, yeah, that was my point. We used the indicator to get into these trades. We use the indicator to get into the gold trades. And things still look pretty good, right? If we turn this off, you can see. So, happy days. And I think what we're getting now is a little bit of a half cycle low before we move higher. And we'll find out if we're right about that or not in the next few sessions. Still expecting Silj and SG to push up. Okay. As has been very consistent on this channel. So, we'll see if that can happen. Here's Silg. So, a little push up in this neighborhood and the JIS should be thriving. Other than that, what is there to say, right?

[00:18:02]What is there to say? Yields are still flat. Dollar's still flat. No real movement there. And Bitcoin is still in about 80ishk. So, we'll see what can happen. But just keep in mind with Bitcoin that it really needs to start moving higher soon because here's the window, right? Look how close we are to this window. We're two weeks away, I think, for Bitcoin now for the middle of the window. So, going to have to start that decline pretty soon. Okay? And remember, the longer it overstretches, the harder and faster it tends to come down. That's not always observed with shorter time frame cycles like the dailies, but we'll find out soon enough.

[00:18:32]And this thing is either found the weekly cycle low really early or if we get that lower low, it will repaint here, which I think makes more sense.

[00:18:39]So, we'll see what can happen here.

[00:18:41]Remember, we don't trade off of the weekly cycle camels anyway. We trade off of the dailies. It's also true that this indicator gets better and better and better every week. So, the fact that it thinks this is coming as well, I'm going to stand by it and we'll see. I guess we'll see in the not too distant future.

[00:18:55]In the meantime, keep pushing the trades. Don't try and do too much. Keep that risk managed, okay? Don't get FOMO.

[00:18:59]All the same things apply. And if you want to grab the indicator and try it for two weeks for free, you can click here in about 10 seconds. Other than that, all the best from me. Take care.

[00:19:06]Cheers. Bye.

[00:19:11]>> Rocking the markets with his contrarian trades like a pro. No fear, no shame.

[00:19:18]Sticking to his guns in his money game.

[00:19:21]He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the markets key taking us stories on a bumpy ride.