Max Pain is NOT Down (Key Bitcoin Level To Watch)

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Okay, so if you've been around the channel then you know, man, we've been pretty spot-on with these uh with these Bitcoin calls. Okay, so the Nexus and I are doing uh we're doing pretty well. I want to let you guys know what I'm looking at now. So, long story short, I said this distribution sucks.

[00:00:15]Okay, we've said that many, many times.

[00:00:17]We had this low, we accumulated on the low, nothing we haven't been talking about on the channel, okay? So, as a result, and I believe I even did this in a previous video, I don't care about anything to the left of this, okay? You can cover it, put a black box around it.

[00:00:30]Uh you don't need it. I don't need anything. Anything to the left of here, I don't need it. All I care about is from this low here.

[00:00:36]This low right over here. See the high where we're at now, okay?

[00:00:39]So, everybody that's targeting 60K, I still don't think that's the time, okay?

[00:00:43]I still do not think that that this is the time. So, from here to here, okay?

[00:00:48]What do we need to look at from that point, okay? First of all, our value area from the entire range, okay? I know I said don't look at the left, but I'm talking about the liquidity, okay? We're looking at the structure.

[00:00:58]The value area high right now resides at around 72K, which we're going to talk about in just a second, okay? Obviously, POC down to uh 67.7-ish K, okay? My line in the sand line, which I told you guys, we actually had two lines in the sand, with one to the upside, one to the downside. The line The line in the sand line to the upside got broken, okay? I said whichever line in the sand gets broken first broken with candle closes, I said will likely result in a breakout in that direction, and that this range is unsustainable, okay? Well, the line in the sand line, as you can see, to the upside is no longer on my screen, and therefore, I believe [music] that we are going higher. I've been posting on X publicly that I think 86K comes before 60K, and by the way, I've been posting this from a very long time ago. We've been bullish in this range. I've gotten so much hate for being bullish despite being correct. It's so weird. I'm like the most right I've ever been, and people are mad that I'm right. Like I'm trying to help you. Anyway.

[00:01:54]So, um I'm I'm looking at higher. I still think we're going higher. I still think we're going to 86K. I still think, you know, if you miss a short, whatever, if you miss a long, like it's going to be more problematic. And the And the reason why is because, in my opinion, max pain is still to the upside, okay?

[00:02:10]Sentiment is still aggressively bearish.

[00:02:12]Everybody's still pointing down.

[00:02:14]Everybody's still saying we're going to 60K. And what's the number one thing I've been saying on the channel, guys?

[00:02:19]Like it's it's about context, right? It doesn't make sense to go lower because there's no money down here, right?

[00:02:25]Nobody's buying down here, and that's the point. People don't buy when prices are falling. People don't buy when there's war. People buy when price pumps. So, people don't buy down here, and what's happening right now and nothing we haven't been saying on the channel. What's happening right now is that the permabears are in disbelief still. Remember, there are um like different shifts in mindset throughout the cycle, right? In a bull market, when price is going higher and higher and higher, and then we make the first lower high, and then people are thinking, "Okay, buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip." But they're still buying as it keeps going down, and you know, everybody's losing.

[00:03:00]At these points, buy the dip, buy the dip.

[00:03:02]Um that is essentially disbelief, and that's exactly what, in my opinion, is happening to the upside right now. It's disbelief. The permabears are mad that they're not going It's not going down despite a very clear as day failed distribution. We've been saying it since down here, guys, okay? So, despite the very clear as day failed distribution, um you know, right now, at least from my perspective, especially on X, the permabull The permabears are just unable to look at the chart objectively, okay?

[00:03:29]And that's kind of what I've just been screaming at you um from the beginning.

[00:03:32]So, not from the beginning, but I've maintained my bullish bias from pretty much like where did I I mean, here I went not permabull mode, but like very bullish mode. But I've been pretty bullish in this range just because of structure, right? Just basic structure, right? After you get a break of structure to the downside, you would expect a lower high, lower low.

[00:03:48]Everybody's bearish. The permabears are in disbelief right now, and my theory is that in order for um the market to shift, right? I said that the tide was has been turning. In order for the market to shift, we need to turn those bears into bulls again, okay? And the problem is that everybody's calling that this is for Everybody's calling for this not to be the low, and that's the problem. So, you need to convince people that maybe this is the low, and then, you know, up at 86K potentially, and then nuke it, right? So, anyways, I still think long story short, I still think we're going higher, okay? I I I I don't really see how we don't go for 86K.

[00:04:21]Um and so, I want to present to you a couple of options or a couple of paths that may get us to 86K. [music] And first of all, let me just say this again. This is my important low. If we start to lose this low, I mean, first of all, actually prior to that, my new line in the sand line is It's actually not here. It's actually right over here [music] cuz we do have a zone down there. If we lose 66.5, I think we're going for 60K and and and >> [music] >> probably much lower, okay? Probably much lower. However, as I mentioned in the beginning of the video that I don't care about this low. So, what does that mean?

[00:04:53]That means that anything volume-based, aside from the range volume, right? I need to go from here. Structure, I need to go from here. The anchored VWAP, I need to go from here. The Fibonacci, I need to go from here. What most people are doing are probably going to pull the fib from the low to the high. I don't think that's correct. I don't think we need to go that low. This is your important low. This is your protected low because this is the low that made this distribution fail, okay? And um created a model to accumulation on that distribution. And by the way, why was I so bullish on top of everything else?

[00:05:22]Look at how much time this distribution took from point from the first point to the third tap, okay? 21 days. Look at here, from the first tap to the third tap was 6 days. It took 6 days of accumulation to break a 21-day distribution, okay? This is your important low. If you lose this, it's cooked, okay? So, that being said, we pull the fib or I'm pulling the fib from here, not from down here. It doesn't make sense contextually to point from here. It doesn't make sense. And most people are probably going to do that.

[00:05:48]And keep in mind that everybody's max pain scenario, well, I think that max pain is up, but why is the max pain up?

[00:05:55]In the In In my opinion, it's because, like I said, the permabears are in disbelief, so everybody's trying to short. So, that's number one. But number two, these guys over here never bought, right? Because everybody's saying that we're going lower. So, they didn't buy.

[00:06:09]So, how do you induce FOMO? How do you get people to buy? You exactly do what I just said. You max pain it up, okay?

[00:06:15]So, if I'm going to pull my fib from this low to this high, which I think is valid, then um you know, I'm presented with a golden pocket somewhere down 70K.

[00:06:23]I think we can go to 70K, okay? I do.

[00:06:26]I like a little bit lower than 70K if we're going to go down there. And by the way, if, okay? Big if. Why am I saying if as opposed to what I guess my preferred scenario is? And the reason I'm saying that is because at that point, we start to gain acceptance back within the value area high, and things are not as bullish. Now, I'm not saying it because I want it to be bullish. I frankly don't care. I just got back from Vegas, and I'm in no positions at the moment. So, I literally do not care which way it goes. But what I'm saying is um if the idea is going to remain bullish, right? The whole idea is that it's a it's going to be a continuation to 86K.

[00:07:03]So, if that idea is going to be valid, you would ideally prefer to have a scenario where it it obviously remains bullish, and you don't get that far of a retracement. If you start to lose this zone, which I'm going to talk about, which I think is a lot more uh higher probability, right? 72.5-ish K. If you start to lose that zone, then it welcomes the idea of coming down to the POC. And then if you lose the POC, obviously, you can go down the value area low. I'm not really a value area kind of trader, but I do understand, you know, yes, if you go lower, technically, you can long from lower, but you also need to understand the balance of like, yeah, you can long from lower, but it's not as strong if it goes lower, right?

[00:07:44]And I think that most traders, most investors don't really quite understand that. Everybody's so caught with trying to catch the exact top or the exact bottom when almost like 99 out of 100 times, it's much better if you don't catch the exact top or bottom because once you see the strength, you'll get a better move and probably a better risk-reward anyway. So, you know, 69 Let's say 68.5, 69K, give or take, this is general zone, is kind of like my line in the sand, okay? It's kind of my line in the sand. I wouldn't want for this to be as bullish as I think it could be, right? Going up to 86K, nothing I haven't talked about a thousand times. I wouldn't really want to lose that low. So, for your next swing trade opportunity, in my opinion, it'll come somewhere around there, okay?

[00:08:28]I don't think that we need to go down there, though. And why? Because, like I said, the whole idea is that max pain is up because people didn't get in, people didn't buy. If you bring the boat back, then people are going to be able to get in, people are going to be able to buy.

[00:08:41]And unfortunately, for the majority of people, they don't know how to trade like the Nexus, they don't know how to get in from anywhere.

[00:08:47]And so, they're like, "No, I'm not longing this. This is crazy. Blah, blah, blah." Even if it's going to go higher, then they're going to miss the entire move. The more interesting idea that I have for now, okay? Things can change, obviously. Things are subject to change.

[00:08:59]But the more interesting that I have a more interesting idea that I have right now is approximately 72.5K. Why 72.5?

[00:09:05]Well, first of all, this low here, right? People didn't long these lows, right? Or this low, specifically the second low. People did not long this low despite having a model to accumulation, which is just pretty much three hits, right? Right here.

[00:09:19]Model to accumulation. They didn't long it. Why didn't they long it? Well, they didn't long it because of these equal lows that they thought were going to get taken out. Well, what was the clue that it wasn't going to get taken out? Number one, you have demand right here, okay?

[00:09:33]But forget even that. Number two is what? What's the idea? What's the context? What have I been saying for seemingly ever now? The idea, the context is that everybody's bearish, and people are shorting, and people haven't gotten in. So, why is that important?

[00:09:50]Because if you leave equal lows like this, right? Then that is a target for the bears, right? But how do you get price to go higher? How do you liquidate the bears? You induce them into shorting, you have them believe that they're going to come and take out these lows, for example, then they don't take out the lows, and then they get liquidated. And so, essentially, it's a bear trap, which has been my base case for this entire move. Ever since on Twitter, I don't remember the date, I'm too lazy to go check, you can check it if you like.

[00:10:18]But, it's there. You go on my Twitter and you write 86k, you'll see it. Ever since I said 86k prior to 60 60k or whatever. Uh and I've even been making posts like, if you like shorting 68k, you're going to love shorting 86k. And then, if you love shorting 76k, you're going to love shorting 86k. I'm pretty like I I I think it's a very high probability that we go to at least 86k.

[00:10:40]I've been saying it, right? And so, if you leave lows like this, it it is it's a bear trap, okay? And it's it's funny because everybody on X, I don't really care about sentiment, you know, I don't I don't When I okay, when I say I don't care about sentiment, I don't base my trading off of like what the majority are doing. In fact, I I prefer to be a contrarian anyways, because the majority of traders lose.

[00:11:02]But, it's kind of funny because they all think that this is a bull trap, the biggest bull trap in history, the blah blah blah blah blah. I'm holding this short all the way. Like, when I actually think it's funny. I I think that the market is Uno reversing them. I think it's a bear trap. I think this whole thing is a bear trap. Anyway, so, 76 72.5 is the more interesting level to me, okay? It's a more interesting level to me. We do have a a nice demand zone over here, and these lows over here on these lows, okay? Or I just said the same thing twice. These lows here, right? The reason why the Nexus actually got long from this zone. I deleted the position now, but the reason that the the Nexus got long from here is because we actually had a bullish SMT between BTC and USDT. And so, I don't need this low to go, okay? Now, this SMT is already played out. So, I'm not saying that we can't go there, but I'm just saying I don't need it to, right? The whole idea is that this is a bear trap.

[00:11:56]So, this, I imagine, would trap more bears. Same with like any CME gaps or whatever. I don't trade that kind of stuff ever, right? But, that's kind of notable. And so, when you keep that in mind, right? Well, what lines up with the idea of these lows that could be trapping the bears, what lines up with with that whole, you know, narrative, I guess, right? Well, that anchored VWAP from that important low that we mentioned earlier is right here, alongside your value area high, alongside this nice demand zone, alongside, if you pull a fib from this protected low, we'll call it, up to the high, you also have like your 786. I don't really do golden pockets and stuff. I'm not really like a golden pocket kind of guy. And I'm not knocking it, but I'm just saying, your 786 from this low, which we are saying doesn't have to go. I'm not saying it can't go. I'm saying it doesn't have to go, okay? Something like that, well, you know, your 786 is in that zone as well. So, for me, it's quite simple. I have some scalping ideas, okay? As you can see with my drawing here, you know, I have maybe coming down, um hitting a lower high, maybe sweeping out this high, getting like a some kind of distribution here, down towards 72.5, and then we'll see. If you get an accumulation here or whatever, I'm holding it, and I think that all longs are swings, all shorts are scalps, okay? Really until we get that um rather large push on the market that I've been saying is, in my opinion anyways, more probable than not. I've been saying that I think if I think altcoins need to have at least a 30 to 50% pump, uh and that's obviously from the low. I've been saying that, so, you know, all things will just like it be in line. I imagine that if if Bitcoin does go towards 86k, then I imagine Bitcoin dominance will drop, alts will pump a lot more than Bitcoin will, but obviously the market moves in tandem, right? Like, the odds that Bitcoin dumps and the and all alts pump is very slim.

[00:13:50]So, you can navigate your altcoin trading rather or investing, however whatever you do, around um around Bitcoin. And that's exactly what I'm doing. Primarily Bitcoin and USDT dominance, because USDT dominance is uh has painted a pretty I don't want to say clear picture. It's not so clear. It's it's a little bit harder than um it's a little bit more difficult because here's the thing, like USDT hit the MTF targeted low. And by the way, right?

[00:14:20]The Nexus has not been shorting this whole time. I mean, we're scalping, sure, but that's the keyword, it's scalping, because the mid-time frame targeted low prior to this past weekend when I was gone in Vegas. Prior to that level, right? This level wasn't hit. So, while everybody was shorting prematurely, calling for swing shorts, we knew better. Like, the odds that that the market was going to turn prior to USDT dominance hitting this low was like extremely slim. And I also posted that on Twitter, okay? I said, "Now is the actual very first time that swing shorts are even able to be discussed." It's the first time that they're even on the table. I still think we're going to go higher in the long-term, mid-term, high-time frame. But, this was really where uh where like once this got hit, now we can discuss it. Now, and USDT is not as easy, okay? It's it's it's not that it's not clear, like it's just it's a little bit more advanced TA, okay? Than what I would say the average Joe would be able to uh to really grasp.

[00:15:17]And the reason why is because our MTF targeted low got hit, but our high-time frame targeted low, which is my target, is uh 20 or 6 6.512%, okay? That level has um has not been hit. So, it's kind of tough because you're in between MTF and high high-time frame. So, mid-time frame and high-time frame, you're in between the two, right? And um you know, do you get to the high-time frame one, right? Do you or do you not?

[00:15:47]And so, that's kind of where the idea around like getting somewhat of a decent pullback on Bitcoin comes in, and then getting the continuation. Whereas like on USDT dominance, obviously USDT dominance is the inverse correlation.

[00:15:59]So, you can get something like this up towards 7.86%, and then a rollover. And that's pretty much what I'm looking at, okay? And again, I'll I'll help navigate. Obviously, the Nexus uh gets to eat first, but I'll help navigate you here on YouTube if you like it. If you want it on on X as well, you know, I can get you guys a lot faster over there.

[00:16:17]But, that's pretty much my plan. I'm in no positions right now.

[00:16:21]Uh I'm in no positions, and I am looking to get into a position. I'm still more long biased than short biased, but that can change. And when I say that, I don't mean like right this very second, okay? I don't mean when I say I'm long biased, you see this, you hit long, and then you're and then it goes down, and you're like, "Well, Geo said."

[00:16:42]No.

[00:16:43]You you know, look at the levels, okay?

[00:16:45]It's not about time. If I say I'm long biased, and we're down, and we fall 5%, that's fine, because where are Look at where my my ideas are, right?

[00:16:55]Like, Bitcoin is 4% away from my like my favorite long, right?

[00:17:02]So, that doesn't You know what I mean? I I hope you guys get what I'm saying.

[00:17:04]Anyways, that is my plan on Bitcoin.

[00:17:06]That is my TA on Bitcoin, okay? I have some ideas. Obviously, I'll be updating the Nexus. Obviously, I'll be updating you guys here on uh on YouTube.

[00:17:14]I'm going to start going live again.

[00:17:16]Um you know, probably tomorrow. I just got back in yesterday, so probably tomorrow when I get settled in, get into a position, and and you know, do my thing. But, yeah, if you like the content, make sure you hit the like button. If you loved it, hit the subscribe button with the notification bell. We haven't been wrong thus far, and hopefully, we do not end up being wrong on this overall high-time frame idea. But, here's the truth, okay?

[00:17:36]Here's what I'm going to leave you with.

[00:17:37]Number one, I'm not a financial advisor, you know that. Number two, listen, these ideas are all Mickey Mouse until we get the confirmation, okay? So, if you want me to teach you how to get those confirmations and how to take those trades, enter the nexus.com. My dearest friends, stay happy, stay healthy, stay wealthy. It's good to be home. I'm so happy to be back, and it's a pleasure for me to serve you here in uh next time I'm live, next time I'm on YouTube, and and whatever else, okay?

[00:18:00]One love, trade safe, be good. When I say one love, y'all say two love, three love, four love, five love in the comments down below. One love.