2027: Random Events Will Give Ruto Second Term

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-11

[00:00:08]This is the fifth estate, a conversation between young African scholars from the Fort Hall School of Government in Nairobi and Professor Mutahuni.

[00:00:18]Vladimir Lenin taught us this. There are decades where nothing happens and weeks where decades happen. The Gen Z uprising was one such week in Kenya. Decades happened in just one week and things changed forever.

[00:00:38]The people had a voice and the government was forced to have hearing.

[00:00:44]This is the nature of revolution.

[00:00:47]For those praying for revolution in Kenya, we have good news. The revolution is at hand. It is here with us.

[00:00:57]Question though, which revolution?

[00:01:02]Revolutions come in small installments.

[00:01:05]They are delivered little by little, and we never get to see them until they burst us under and crack.

[00:01:13]Even then, we only recognize them slowly, long after they happen.

[00:01:20]In political science, this is grouped into a category called chaos theory. It is a series of unrelated things that later converge into one big bang.

[00:01:32]In his book, The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness, Nicholas Nasim Taleb, a professor of uncertainty, taught us that random occurrences put together over the years produce results that seem random. Yet all along they were simmering in the backyard, but we did not pay attention to them.

[00:01:55]For instance, why did Ria die when he did? Random.

[00:02:04]If for 63 years our politics was directed by two families, the Kenyatas and the Odingas, what happens if the two randomly exit the stage? Let's pose this question pointedly. If the consciousness of our nation was shaped by the Kenyata and the Odinga dynasties, Raa is now deactivated from politics and Uhhuru is slow punctured. There is a vacuum. The end of these dynasties is not random. Although the occurrences that led to Ria's demise and Uhuru's current status are random, the gods are telling us that there's a pattern here if we observe it carefully.

[00:02:50]These things were predetermined, but we never saw them. And here is the truth report. The country is pregnant with a new order, but the pregnancy is in danger. There are two problems here.

[00:03:05]One, the paternity of the baby. Who is the father of the new order? Is it R or Ruhuru? From the 2022 election results, we think that R impregnated the nation.

[00:03:20]But Uhhuru also believes that the pregnancy is his. Whose is it?

[00:03:26]The second problem is this. There will be two midwives at the delivery room in 2027.

[00:03:33]Ruhuru.

[00:03:36]If the pregnancy belongs to R, what will Uhhuru do? No idea. And if it belongs to Uhhuru and R is the midwife, will the baby survive?

[00:03:50]No idea.

[00:03:53]Did you know that a butterfly flipping its wings in Bondo, where Baba is buried, can cause a massive earthquake in Wamoro, the home of a political casanova called Reggi?

[00:04:08]In chaos theory, this is called the butterfly effect associated with a philosopher known as Edward Lawren.

[00:04:18]And it states that small inconsequential things like the flipping of butterfly wings have potential to bring down systems. And nothing demonstrates this better than the herb spring. A street hawker named Muhammad Boses had been arrested and humiliated by the police.

[00:04:40]Frustrated beyond, Muhammad poured petrol on his body and set himself on fire.

[00:04:48]One random act of symbolic protest brought down strong men like Gaddafi in Libya, Mubarak in Egypt, and later General Bashir in the Sudan.

[00:05:01]One man, one act. And like a butterfly flipping its wings in Tunisia, the entire Arab region was changed for ever.

[00:05:12]Another example is that of Rosa Parks from Montgomery, Alabama, USA.

[00:05:19]A black woman in the 1960s who refused to surrender her seat to a white man during a bus ride. She was arrested and humiliated.

[00:05:30]But this one act of defiance fueled mass protest and defined the civil rights movement in the US. It had the butterfly effect.

[00:05:43]If a new order is at hand in Kenya, what will be its butterfly effect?

[00:05:52]Just asking.

[00:05:55]This butterfly effect from Tunisia and Rosa Parks is partly true. The Rosa Park story became famous when the CIA discovered that they cannot fight the civil rights movement. They amplified her story and this helped them infiltrate the civil rights movement.

[00:06:13]Something that looked natural like a butterfly flipping its wings in Alabama was weaponized by the lipstick. Fact.

[00:06:22]What about Muhammad Baziz? the man credited with the Arab Spring. Was his butterfly effect genuine? Absolutely not.

[00:06:33]Did he kill himself dramatically and genuinely? Absolutely yes.

[00:06:41]But his act of mad was weaponized. It did not happen organically. It was fueled by Mongu interest to collapse the Arab states in Africa.

[00:06:52]Fact.

[00:06:54]Dear R, we had a butterfly effect in June 2024 during the Gen Z protest. Was it genuine at the cop? Absolutely yes.

[00:07:05]Was it weaponized like the Rosa Parks protest and the Tunisian hawker that caused the Arab Spring? Absolutely yes.

[00:07:16]If the country is pregnant with a new order, you must expect it to be weaponized against you, your enemies are looking for a butterfly flipping its wings somewhere. Then they will weaponize it to cause an earthquake.

[00:07:33]But as Sunzu taught us, do not rely on the enemy not coming.

[00:07:38]You should rely on making your position unassailable whether the enemy comes or not.

[00:07:48]Dynasties are jealous institutions especially on their deathbeds. They will fight. They will hire the Rosa Parks methods and the Arab Spring kills to remain in power. And that is why the 2027 election is a tale of two midwives.

[00:08:07]R and Uhuru. Who will midwife the new order in Kenya? We will pause this 2027 question using a Bible story. Once upon a time, two prostitutes were housemates.

[00:08:22]Then they got pregnant and gave birth at the same time. But as they slept, one of the prostitutes lay on her baby and killed him. Then she quickly switched him with the living one. As the mother of the living baby slept in the morning, the two had a cat fight. They each claimed the living baby was theirs. And to resolve the fight, they went to King Solomon. When Solomon listened to their stories, he ordered that the living baby be split into two. This way, each mother would take half a baby. But on hearing Solomon's verdict, the real mother screamed in horror as the evil prostitute laughed with joy. With this reaction, Solomon knew who the real mother was. In the 2027 election, we have an evil prostitute. He will split the country because he did not impregnate it with the new order. Is it Uhuru?

[00:09:29]No idea.