US-sanctioned ships pass Strait of Hormuz as China calls Trump's blockade 'dangerous' | BBC News

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[00:00:00]Let's update you on what is happening right now in the Strait of Hormuz with the latest ship tracking data that's been analyzed by BBC Verify showing that four Iran-linked tankers have crossed the Strait despite Washington's naval blockade. Two of those ships had visited Iranian ports. That's according to Marine Traffic. Its data shows a bulk carrier, the Christiania, crossing the Strait on Monday having called at the port of Bandar Imam Khomeini. China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, describing the US restricting access to Iran's ports as irresponsible and dangerous.

[00:00:36]And what we've been hearing from the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, as well, reports that the next round of talks may take place this week or early next week to extend the current 2-week ceasefire.

[00:00:46]So far, neither Washington nor Tehran have made any formal comments on this next round of negotiations, but we're watching out for that and we'll bring you any comments as soon as we get them.

[00:00:57]Well, James Burnell is a retired rear admiral in the Royal Navy. With Iranian-linked ships managing to get through the Strait of Hormuz, he told me what he thinks is going on in the Strait. I think the most important thing for your viewers to note is that this is a blockade of Iran's ports rather than a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. And as a result, much of the action and activity in that area of the world is going to be calibrated by how ships try and escape the blockade. And the four ships that have gone through the Strait today indicate that perhaps it's not being as enforced as strictly as might otherwise be the case. So, what we're seeing at the moment is a policy from the US naval navy of deterrence, James, rather than enforcement. Well, it's an interesting analogy because one of the things that has been apparent in the last few weeks is that despite quite a lot of the rhetoric, the Strait of Hormuz is not actually blocked. It's not blocked physically. There's no evidence of any mines being laid. But what has happened is that civilian shipping companies have been deterred from transiting the Strait of Hormuz because of the danger of attack from Iranian forces in particular. I see no evidence that that deterrence has been dialed down at all.

[00:02:15]And merchant shipping companies who are perhaps connected with non-Iranian ports and non-Iranian cargos have so far been extremely reluctant to go through the Strait because of both the shipping insurance impact and also the risk of attack or damage to their cargos. So, for a blockade to be legal and effective, it does have to be enforced. And certainly for the first 12 or so hours of the blockade, that doesn't appear to be the case. What is the biggest danger right now?

[00:02:47]I think there are two dangers that leap out as two courses of action that may take place.

[00:02:53]Danger number one, I think, is that the ships and the assets that the US Navy have assembled to enforce the blockade are not able to do that. Blockades themselves are actually a matter of international law, and one of the elements that has to be fulfilled for this to be a legal blockade is that it has to be effective. And if four ships have gone through already linked with Iranian cargos, they've not been stopped, not been boarded, that implies that the US Navy at the moment is struggling to have sufficient assets in the area to be able to enforce the blockade itself.

[00:03:26]So, I think danger number one is that the Iranian ships continue to get through and the US forces perhaps slightly overreact in order to counter the narrative that the blockade is not being enforced.

[00:03:38]Perhaps the second and more dangerous, but less likely course of action, is that the non-Iranian linked ships, which are free to pass under the US Navy's notice to mariners to non-Iranian ports, when they start to go through and they've been reassured that they are subject to attack by Iranian forces.

[00:03:58]That would be the worst of all worlds because it would show that the merchant shipping community is not free to proceed that the US Navy's told them to do, and the Iranians are reopening hostilities against both ships and potentially ports in the region. How much of a concern is it, James, and we've talked about it a lot, but if you're actually out there and you're the US Navy, that it's not always possible to identify these ships, that there's false flags, and you don't know what necessarily where they're going because they could turn off their tracking data. Well, that's a That's a really good point from an open-source intelligent point of view, but in reality, modern armed forces know very well where every ship has been and to whom it is connected. From your reporting earlier on today, you discussed a false-flagged vessel flagged with the Comoros Islands, which is actually not a registry that I believe has that ship on its books. But actually, US Navy, the UK Maritime Trade Organization, which is the global leader in tracking merchant marine traffic in that area of the world, they have a very good understanding of which ships have gone where, where their cargos are from, and where they have been, even if their destination is slightly opaque. So, there is little danger that ships will be misidentified from the US side. There is, however, a danger of targeting if Iran chooses to reopen strikes and attacks on vessels going through the Strait.