Weather forecasting involves analyzing multiple factors including radar imagery, storm movement patterns, and atmospheric conditions to predict severe weather events. Meteorologists assess risk levels (such as the SPC's Level 2 out of 5 risk) based on potential for damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding. Understanding how weather systems move (south/southeast vs. east) helps determine whether severe weather will impact specific areas. The forecast also considers historical climate patterns, such as July being the wettest month for Hampton Roads with an average of 6.1 inches of rainfall, and how drought conditions can be alleviated by significant rainfall events.
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Beyond the Forecast | Threat of Severe Weather and Tropics Update
Added:[music] welcome. Oh, [laughter] >> I did not check that camera and that camera has never moved before.
[laughter] It's way >> I know you want to do a welcome back cuz I've been gone for a week, but I didn't think it was going to be like that.
>> Surprise. Jeff is back. I was going to actually do something funny at the top of the show, but that blew out whatever I was going to do. [laughter] >> Wow.
>> So, uh, as you can see, Jeff is back.
Um, how was your vacation?
>> It was good. [laughter] It was good.
Maybe I should talk to that camera, right? Um, we got to get that adjusted here during the break.
>> Uh, break was or the um, vacation was fine. Went out. Uh, I was down in Orlando visiting mom for a week. Got some stuff done around the house. That's pretty much what I do when I go down there. She has a list of things. I need this done. I need this done. Uh, like you know, the gutter needed to be fixed.
The computer had a there's a question about the computer. I had to spread a bunch of dirt in the backyard. So, >> okay.
>> Lot of little things. Nice vacation of chores.
>> Fix. Oh, yeah. Her toilet was having a problem and she didn't know about it.
So, I fix that, too.
>> So, you were a plumber, a landscaper, everything last week.
>> Yep. And then she buys me a meal. So, >> nice.
>> Yeah. Well, you know, that's the whole point of having sons, right? So, they can do things for you.
>> Yep. Fly [laughter] in and help out.
>> Sure.
>> Oh, yeah. went to uh to Melbourne one day. Uh there's a nice outlet mall that we checked out over there that's along the Atlantic coast.
>> Check out Melbourne Beach.
>> Went to the beach. Yep. Nice.
>> Went to the beach. No waves. There was actually maybe like >> It's been flat on the East Coast. It's been flat on the East Coast for a long while now. Pretty though. Yeah. Really blue.
>> Oh yeah. It was warm too. Bath water.
>> Oh yeah. It was nice. So water was good.
And I've never been to that beach before. So it's kind of fun to see a different one.
>> Great waves. Melbourne Beach, one one of the better beaches for weight. Like that stretch of cosine's really good usually.
>> Didn't make it to Cape Canaveral. Didn't go to Kennedy Space Center this time, but maybe next time. So, >> okay. I was surprised you didn't make it out there.
>> That's I was just about to say.
[laughter] Yeah.
>> Yeah. No, maybe next time. It was It was pretty hot and I had to kind of think, okay, >> yeah. What was the heat index those days? Like what hovering out around 105 110 normally?
>> And I want to go there because last time I went there was in the summer, too. I want to go there in a cooler time of the year when I can go to the rocket garden and actually enjoy it.
>> It's great in like, you know, in really the winter. I mean, it depends on where you are in Florida in the winter because it can get cold like Jacksonville. I remember I would surf sometimes Jacksonville Beach on a winter swell and it's like you get down to Jacksonville Beach in January and it can be very cold. But if you go south towards Melbourne, Sebastian Inlet or like uh those south of the Space Coast really or like south of Cape Canaveral. Yeah.
>> It stays pretty warm year round.
>> It got to 18° two nights in Orlando this last winter.
>> Wow.
>> Everything died that was tropical. Like all of my mom's plants in the Everything was dead cuz it was a hard freeze for two nights. And the first night, it was actually three. The first one was like a 30 for a low, but then it got really cold after that.
>> Wow.
>> So the tropicals were smoked. All the palm trees, they weren't dead. But you know how when you look at a palm tree, there's some dead branches on the bottom and then it's mostly a dark green.
Everything was a light green, the fresh ones coming out. Everything else died.
So, you could really see how everything was stressed. Some things were totally killed, but a lot >> they also had really bad drought this spring down there, too. So, it was further stress because of the drought.
They had exceptional drought for I think over 50% of the state.
>> Wow. After a freeze. Because I remember when I was down down in Fort Myers just after Memorial Day to visit one of my friends who works down there as meteorologist. We went down there. We're like, "Huh, like it just looks it was still in that point where I was like, it looks dry. It doesn't look like the Florida that like we all remember from past years. It was dried out. It wasn't It was obviously it's tropical, but it like you could tell that there was a lot of stress on the environment.
>> Yep. There was that. And then uh like all the plants and the neighborhood for my mom like you know the entrance and stuff to like the welcome to the neighborhood those were all dead. And she was asking like you know I wonder what Disney did because their plants obviously died and [clears throat] Disney was not you know I'm not I'm not going to speak for the company but Disney if you go there you're going to expect beautiful gardens.
>> So for 24 hours the beautiful >> lining their sidewalks I imagine they replaced all of them.
>> Yeah. I mean, that's that's a big that was a nightmare for the master gardener there.
>> Oh, yeah.
>> That'd be a good interview. That'd be a good story. How'd you do it? And >> yeah, [clears throat] truckloads.
>> Yeah. And you know, tears of fertilizer coming down their cheeks. So, yeah.
[laughter] [gasps] >> All right. So, we got a couple of showers and storms that we have out there.
>> Yes, we do. Look at that. A lot >> big one down south of us and a tornado warning, too. Look at that.
>> Yeah, that's big.
>> Yeah, that is at least not in our area, but it's close. Edgecomb Halifax counties had pretty imp. We were just looking at this earlier. A pretty impressive hook >> on it too a little bit earlier. Looks not as impressive now.
>> There you go.
>> There we go. Um the velocity signature was definitely apparent on this too.
>> Yep. And this is moving for anyone concerned. This is moving south and southeast. You can follow the box, but it's I mean if it moves due south it's going to get stronger. If it moves east, it's going to get weaker. So this is not headed for you in Edon uh or Windsor.
You're going to be just fine in Windsor.
You have some thunder and lightning, but you don't have this thing coming down into your area. This is not into Bertique County. It's close, but uh but it's staying south and it's moving away.
>> I mean, it's right on the edge of our of our area, outside of our area, but it's close to the edge.
>> It is close, but yeah, at least it should stay out of our area, so that's good. Yeah, a lot of activity. Uh >> Eastern North Carolina just gets slammed right. Look at all that lightning near Rodanthy.
>> You can see right where the boundary is, there's uh that stationary front.
There's not really any rain right there, but you have it just around that front.
>> So, um that's kind of fun to see on the radar. But a lot of storms that have popped up. We've seen some in our Virginia communities. Mainly, it's been kind of inland uh around Sussex County is where we're seeing it now. It's kind of where we've been seeing it.
>> Little bit of clearing happening, too.
>> Yeah, that's nice to see a little bit of sunshine out there. Um I do want to pull >> peninsula's looking great.
>> Yeah. What are your thoughts for the afternoon going into the evening with chances for storms? Cuz I know Storm Prediction Center had a >> area from kind of sort of the state line due south for the area of most interest, but be scattered showers, but heading into this evening, I think after all this heavy rainfall kind of clears on by in the next several hours, I think overnight we'll have a few stray showers, a few isolated storms out there. But >> I think tomorrow afternoon's the next after this, you know, wave of moisture moves through um in North Carolina. I think it's our focus will mainly shift to tomorrow and then Wednesday.
>> Yeah, tomorrow and Wednesday are the kind of >> Wednesday more more so than Tuesday.
>> And I read the discussion about tomorrow because at first I was confused about tomorrow. Look at the model. So here's tomorrow and to the north.
>> Yeah, the bullseye is to our north. The main line of activity is going to stay to our north. That's where the cold front is. But things should develop out ahead of that front and that's where the concern lies for us because the models a couple days ago I was just kind of looking and see okay what are we what are we looking at for the week ahead and it had didn't have anything coming through until 2 3 4 in the morning it's like well okay that's that's a different kind of risk that's more of a Wednesday morning risk but now it's showing stuff popping up some are not all some are showing some storms popping up like four five six o'clock tomorrow >> the graph has been very consistent on Wednesday being the the day and other than t like Tuesday I think will be rather scattered Um, it's been very consistent with Wednesday. Some sort of line wants to move through on Wednesday and pretty much widespread storms for >> for all of us. That's why the focus for that level two out of five risk is now more so into you can kind of just tell it's like saying, "Hey, Hampton Roads, you're kind of in the bullseye here." I still feel like the my kind of gut is telling me that the risk on Wednesday is going to be more earlier in the day. You think >> from the leftovers of that cold front moving in Tuesday late night because that's still going to come through at 3 4 in the morning. So maybe at 7 8 9 >> it could be a morning show type of and morning commute type of issue instead of a >> on Wednesday >> afternoon evening. We'll see.
>> Yeah, >> I will be in for Jeremy on Wednesday morning. So >> Oh, you're in for Jeremy on Wednesday.
Okay. I haven't even looked at our calendar yet. So >> Wednesday through Friday. Well, then I might see you Tuesday night.
>> Oh, [laughter] right.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. I might leave a little earlier on Tuesday and come in a little earlier on Wednesday in that case.
>> That's good. Well, I'll I'll coordinate with you then. Yeah.
>> Um tomorrow evening just if anything changes, but >> yeah.
>> Um yeah. So, we've got a couple different fronts moving through. So, that's definitely going to be bringing us this stormy stretch. I also want to pull up, we're talking for Tuesday, um we'll go into Tuesday and Wednesday, but Tuesday the risks, uh we have damaging winds, heavy downpours, it could lead to localized flash flooding. There was also drawn from the uh SPC a little bit of a tornado threat as well.
>> So, >> yeah, there is a little bit more tomorrow.
>> Yeah, for tomorrow's storm. So, we'll have to keep a close eye on that. As for the rainfall, here's the excessive rainfall risk. Um floating. There we go.
So, could see some of those heavy downpours. Again, that could potentially lead to a bit of flooding. Here is the rainfall threat for the day on Wednesday.
>> Yeah, all those excessive rainfall graphics should be Yeah.
>> up to date. Um, this is it's been a while since we've had like several days in a row of the SPC issuing these outlooks for our area. Our area our area is included in each one through the next three days.
>> Yeah. Just remember where we were just like a couple months ago >> where it was like you couldn't >> you couldn't see a drop of rain on the 7-day for weeks at one point and now we've got back toback and it looks like at the very most over the next seven over the course of the next seven days we could be looking at a lot of rain for some areas.
>> Yeah. So, uh we pulled this up right before the show the QPF here. Um it's going to load in for a minute but it's got a lot.
>> I literally I think I said in the weather center I was like whoa. Yeah. I literally said wo because we have not seen that in so long.
>> No, we haven't.
>> Yep. I was I was looking at long range model saying something similar to that.
That's almost 10 inches of rain.
>> This is now remember this is not in one storm. This is stretched out over the course of the week. But >> still, I mean, this is something that we have not been accustomed to as of late because of how dry it's been to the start of this year.
>> Right. And I would say our main stormy stretch is the first half of this week.
>> Yes.
>> Then things will be tapering off some.
So, a lot of this would be for the first part of the week, the next few days here. And I mean, yeah, I mean, it's showing that we could see three to seven ines really. So, >> you think it's a combination of the dying front, >> the incoming front, >> and that tropical system in the Gulf. Do you think it's a >> I don't think we'll see anything from that tropical system.
>> You don't think it's it's shooting moisture?
>> No.
>> Riding along the front, >> the cold front is pushing it and keeping it it's moving.
>> It's shutting it down.
>> Yeah. Um, so >> I was wondering about that cuz sometimes these things can bleed a little moisture but it is moving west. It was moving east and that would be Yeah.
>> If it was moving east and northeast then yes, we would have probably >> you would have this plus the tropical system. That would be a nightmare. But yeah, you can the >> clouds. Just look at the clouds. Yeah.
>> Yeah. And then the track has it going.
>> That's a slow movement. You know, Wednesday into Thursday morning barely moving across southern Louisiana. So they're going to get some big rain out of that.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. There's also a little bit of a storm surge threat that area part of the coastline is, you know, if the wind turns on on shore, even on a sunny day, they have a storm surge threat there.
So, that's very typical. Um, yeah, if someone sneezes, they got, you know, water in the first floor essentially.
But, um, yeah, the rainfall down there is going to be is probably going to be something really notable. The west coast of Florida has been dealing with those scattered downpours today. And apparently where it's been raining, it's been just a straight up downpour, just tropical downpours. So >> yeah, it's not too surprising. I want to take a look at our IR here.
>> Other than that, it's been of course a quiet start to the hurricane season, but I mean our fir What was the first name?
I'm already blanking.
>> Arthur.
>> Arthur.
>> Yeah, this one's Bertha.
>> So far, I mean, we're as long as this thing becomes Bertha, that's two for two on landfalls. Remember last year, we didn't did we get anything really? We got uh >> we had one >> crystal ball or whatever down kind of where the storm is right now, but it moved >> other than that. It was like that was it. So again, it's like >> and they stayed all the we didn't get the swell out of it.
>> This this season like it could be it could be a record low.
>> I'm trying to trigger Brian, but it's not working.
>> It's No, I've I've grown I've grown numb to it. Um it [laughter] could Yeah, it could uh be a season here where, you know, we have a record low in terms of number of storms, but if everything's making hitting like hitting land, that's impactful. It could be a season where the activity hangs out in the Gulf, too, instead of coming up our direction. It could be one of those kind of season.
We'll see. We're going to have to uh kind of watch, wait, and see. I know there was a like a 10% way out in the Atlantic.
>> I think that's probably fizzled by now.
>> Yeah, I don't Yeah, >> it's a really hostile environment out there for tropical activity. So, I'm not expecting much to work in until like I I think we could there is a genuine chance we could go all of August without seeing a lick of activity out there with the way things have been.
>> I'm not saying that. I'm not putting my >> I'm not I'm not saying it's going to, but it's like it wouldn't surprise me either with how quiet it's been out there. Of course, as >> I say the rest of the month, but I wouldn't say August up.
>> As we get towards September, Yeah. we're going to start to see it come alive again. That's for sure.
>> Yeah. So, we had a couple viewers in here that were saying that we need the rain. So, I wanted to pull up the drought monitor. Um, this is not this is what last updated Thursday. So, we haven't we didn't really see a lot of rain over the weekend. We saw some Sunday we saw few areas that got a good amount of rain at least. So, it doesn't include that rainfall, but just looking at it, we have seen some improvements here locally.
>> It has improved. Yeah.
>> Yeah. And so >> if we get seven seeing this Yeah.
>> If we get that seven-day outlook like the QPF suggests, we could be uh drought free.
>> Yeah.
>> In two weeks.
>> Yep.
>> With that because remember we said a couple weeks ago you said it was 8 in.
Yep. That's what we need in we're out of a drought. Hey, [laughter] this could be the drought buster. The week ahead could be the druster.
>> It really could be. And we were very doubtful that we would see 8 to 12 in. I think that's what they said that we needed for a 30-day span. And I was like, I don't know if we're going to see that.
>> We're already making some good progress with our drought. So, yeah, this really could be a drought buster event for us.
>> In July, it's the wetest month on average typically for Hampton Roads, and we get around 6.1 in is the average number, I believe, the 30-year average.
So, we could uh if we can sneak out another eight inches, I don't know where what we've seen for the month so far. I don't know have that number in my head, but uh last I that was like a week ago, we were like an inch below. We could uh we could end up with above average July and well above average. Maybe even getting close to 10 inches of total rainfall for the month if this week ahead verifies.
>> What's the norm? What do we normally get in July? Isn't it over six? Yeah. Okay.
Just over.
>> I don't know what we've seen this month.
I just don't I haven't looked in the week. So, I don't remember.
>> Right.
>> I want to say we were an inch below.
>> Well, it makes sense if we get our rainiest month this, you know, July 25th 6. It would be normal. But it's just a matter of how much above normal could it be?
>> Yeah. Well, we're going to keep an eye on radar here. I think we sneak in a little break, but we I want to keep an eye on that storm, too, down south.
We'll check in with that in just Yes, [screaming] help.
yes.
Hey help.
Yes.
Hold on. Okay. It would help if I unmuted the mics. I hit the wrong button. [laughter] Uh, all right. So, we are checking back in on radar. That tornado warning has expired. So, that's nice.
>> Um, yeah, good news there. Still a lot of heavy downpours that we are seeing across portions of northeastern North Carolina. that solid line of those heavy downpours that's really been going throughout this afternoon. I'll put a the time lapse on here for the past two hours. So, I would not be surprised to see some flood warnings popping up at some point possibly with some of this activity. Um, >> so much lightning towards Ranthy.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. Lots of lightning that we do have.
Um, let me stop this.
>> Pretty healthy looking storm down there.
Uh, not really so much rotation, but maybe a little bit of wind out of it.
And they were mentioning a water spot possible. So, going to have to watch that, too.
>> Yeah, I've got one of our traffic cameras that's listed in here for Rodanthy. Looked like some heavy downpours that we were seeing out of that camera. It's taking a second to load in here. There you go.
>> Oh, yep. World Beach Cam. Yep.
>> Yeah, it's coming down. So, >> it's frozen, too.
>> Yeah, it was a couple static. Yeah, static one.
>> So, seeing those heavy downpours down there. Um, definitely could continue to see some of that activity as we're heading throughout the rest of this afternoon and this evening. Pull up the future track in here.
>> Okay.
>> It's kind of doing an okay job.
>> Yeah, that's where it's initializing.
So, it doesn't show as strong of storms.
Um, but it does have some rain around the general areas.
>> Most of it is south of the album Sound anyway, and our graphic kind of cuts that off. So, yeah, it's not doing a bad job. It has that cell near uh near Wakefield.
>> It does.
>> Which is on radar. So that's that's actually pretty impressive.
>> Yeah.
>> Keeps the rain south into tonight and really not much developing. We'll have temperatures sliding into the 70s. It'll still probably be humid all night long.
>> So that stationary boundary to the south lifts north tomorrow morning as a warm front. Um so that may trigger a couple morning showers or some thunderstorms out there. So watch out for that as we head into the early morning hours of tomorrow. may be impacting the morning commute too depending on the timing of this. If if it's a 4:30 a.m. deal, then most of us probably missing out on that.
But >> a lot of military goes in around that time.
>> Yeah. So that could be impactful for if you're military trying to head into to the bases. Um watch out for some of those heavy downpours. And then it looks like at least for kind of clears out by seven. I don't know if that's what a lot of the other models were looking. That's kind of what it was keeping the past couple of runs it looked like anyways for graph.
>> Then we sun comes out.
>> Yeah, sun comes out. We recharge the atmosphere. Get those southerntherly winds. Here we go.
>> Back into the low >> do tomorrow.
>> Hotid upper 80s, low 90s.
>> Okay, so what does this thing have in the afternoon winds?
>> All right, here's what we're looking at for the afternoon. That has later in the afternoon popping up >> and it also keeps it more so Peninsula's Eastern Shore, which you guys have missed out on that rain throughout the day today. Okay, so it looks like tomorrow a better chance for our northern half to see some of that rain and storm activity.
>> Okay, so early evening stuff and then by sunset it's just way north and there's nothing else. Nothing >> until we get into Wednesday morning.
Then >> yeah, Wednesday looks to be the more widespread chance for the entire area >> just based on what the models have been saying for the past several days even. I remember on Friday I was kind of circling Wednesday. I was like, "Okay, looks like some more rain coming up this day." And yeah, the model's still kind of consistent on it.
>> Slow moving front. Wow, look at that >> heavy rain.
>> Yeah, that that would a lot of that rainfall that we saw in the one graphic could be that could be coming up on Wednesday >> on Wednesday at 6:30. And I'll uh maybe change this. I have a plan to talk with another uh >> Wavy Plus host, Chris Win. We're going to be talking about the movie Twister 30th anniversary. But I might be on the air talking about my own if missing verifies.
>> That's even at night 11:30. You might be staying late on Wednesday, too.
>> This front's >> Yeah. What'll probably happen is it'll probably just turn into a zone of rain.
>> Yeah.
>> And not be severe.
>> Yeah.
>> Because it kind of loses its forward momentum.
>> It's turning stationary as the front moves in. It's, you know, fronts. It's Hampton Roads is a place where the fronts kind of stall out this time of year.
>> Um it looks like that's kind of what's happening >> Wednesday. Yeah. And then Thursday, there's still action going on across the Outer Banks.
>> Still some stuff lingering.
>> Rocking and rolling Thursday.
>> I think we're going to be a maritime air coming up on Thursday. So, we should be better off.
>> Yeah. Northeast wind on that on the, you know, >> Yep.
>> on the >> Yeah, breezy for for a couple of days here. So, starting to get breezy tomorrow. And it looks like breezy into Thursday.
>> It does pick up a swell surfers. There's finally something. It's not going to be best conditions wise, but it's something coming up. Maybe dust off the shoreboards as we head into the late week. This weekend, too. There's going to be lingering swell and there may be an opportunity during the morning.
Saturday, Sunday, fingers crossed there could Sunday there could be some really fun surf out there.
>> Saturday morning or Sunday morning.
>> Got to look. I think it's both days have the potential. But it's we could see something really fun coming up >> finally.
>> To go to the Outer Banks >> and uh stay tuned to Hang 10 because of course I'll have uh I'll be covering that as well if it >> if it uh comes up.
>> All right. All right. Well, we got to take another quick break and then uh Up go up.
up.
Up.
up.
Up.
Yes, up.
All right, welcome back. Quick check on the radar. Still seeing some of that severe activity that's mainly staying down just to our south. So around Rocky Mount, seeing a severe thunderstorm warning that has popped up with that uh storm that's moving through. Yeah, lots of lightning out there. That's by Wilson. Uh, North Carolina, >> Farmville. Yeah, North Carolina we're looking at, not Virginia. So, >> right. Yeah.
>> North of Stanton Stantonburg topsville.
>> I think a lot of that severe activity will stay just to our south. Kind of what we've seen popping up. I mean, this is our big line right now that is pretty much to our south a little bit across Bertie County and then of course Der County into the Outer Banks. That's the main line of those strong storms that we could be seeing moving through as we're heading through the rest of the afternoon. We do still have this one little area that's up by Wakefield.
>> Yeah, a little instability shower. Yeah.
>> Yeah. And you can see our little radar beam. We had somebody in the comments that was asking, "Is the Wakefield radar operational?" Yes.
>> Yes, >> it is. It's working fine. Uh quick little uh astronomy note on this day. 57 years ago, Apollo Apollo 11 landed on the moon. Oh, look at that.
>> Very cool.
>> That is cool.
>> Yep. Fun little fact years ago.
>> Yeah. So, I put a little post on my Facebook page. I haven't seen the comments yet, but that'll be kind of fun to read to see what the comments have to say. [laughter] Who was around? What do you what you what you think? All those things.
>> Uh, real quick before we go, I do want to show the 7day. So, still seeing those scattered showers and storms as we head throughout the next few days.
>> It gets cooler end of the week. Yeah, cooler. Northeast wind, that maritime air is going to help out. But, >> um, it looks like as we head into this weekend, >> we are really starting to dry out. Good news for going to the beach. Good news for surfing all around. It looks like it could be a really, really nice weekend coming up.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. Not bad. Look at that. Low to mid 80s.
>> Got to get through. Got to get through some rain and wind though. Rain and wind maybe on Sunday, but got to get through some storms.
>> Yep. All right. Well, we will see you on our newscast coming up.
>> [music] >> Hey,
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