Israel Declares A Nationwide State Of Emergency – Millions Flee For Shelter. | Jeffrey Sachs

Ajouté : 2026-06-08

[00:00:00]Yeah. Um Jeffrey Saxs, as I'm sure you all know, is a world-renowned economist and he has been a an adviser to the secretary general of the United Nations um practically for the whole of this century, as far as I can gather with a special set of responsibilities around the sustainable development goals. Um so we he doesn't have much time with us.

[00:00:21]I'm going to just jump right on in because one thing I am really interested in, Jeff, is how you would describe the economic impact of this ongoing crisis um between the US and Iran.

[00:00:36]Well, uh the impact is serious uh and widespread because uh the rise of energy prices and everything produced with energy including fertilizer most importantly hits the entire world. But uh we don't know yet uh whether this will be a a devastating impact which is possible if this continues and especially if the war escalates or whether it will be a a moderate serious impact which it already is. So there's still a lot of uncertainty because it depends on the actions especially of the United States.

[00:01:20]But we can say that the price of energy uh has increased from uh roughly speaking $65 a barrel to around $100 a barrel today. Yet the flow of new production is dramatically cut. So what's happening is that the uh reserve stocks are being run down at this stage.

[00:01:47]uh if uh the reserve stocks continue to be run down and there's no uh resppite in this blockade and closure of the straight of form or still worse if there's a a return to fighting and a physical destruction of infrastructure in the region then everything would become vastly worse.

[00:02:13]I think uh we look to the price uh as a kind of summary of expectations. Uh the price is not only uh the transaction that clears supply and demand today but because uh every uh uh entity, every government, every business that holds oil and reserve is asking should I use it now or should I hold off uh for the future? And with the price of oil hovering around $100 a barrel right now, uh the message has been that the markets, in other words, the sum total of expectations is that somehow uh there's going to be a uh partial or substantial opening of the flows uh before we hit rock bottom in reserves.

[00:03:14]uh or uh before there's a return to open fighting. So I'd say there's a modest level of uh optimism that in a pragmatic way perhaps maybe without any agreement uh more oil starts flowing uh before real disaster hits.

[00:03:35]>> Yeah. I just note that this whole matter of the oil price internationally functions like a prediction market as you said you know I mean it it's private entities as well as governments but placing bets on their expectation about the future which seems like a crazy way to organize um a large international market like that.

[00:03:57]>> Well it's it's not not exactly crazy.

[00:04:00]It's uh it it is um but it is giving us information. If you expected that there's going to be return to fighting or uh that we're just going to run to zero and you hold some oil stocks today, you will hoard them. Uh that by itself would drive up the spot market price. uh if you expect that uh well one way or another they're going to resolve uh this uh terrible situation uh the US which I want just retreats uh and Iran opens up the straight which it absolutely would do then even if you have small stocks right now you'd use them you'd run them down because you have the expectation that you can replenish them So in a way uh what's happening is uh making what we call an intertemporal uh allocation based on whether you think the shortages are going to be extreme in the next few weeks or whether that you think they're going to be resolved. Uh it's uh kind of interesting actually that millions of decisions uh somehow get uh uh interpreted or are interpable through this price but they are indeed reflecting a vast number of individual decisions being taken by governments and by businesses all over the world.

[00:05:32]So, um, talk a little bit.

[00:05:33]>> Well, what's crazy, by the way, just to add, is it's crazy to have a blockade and have a war. That's what's crazy.

[00:05:40]>> That's right. Yeah, that's an very important point to make because this was a complete war of choice on behalf of our >> Yeah. I I call it a war of whim because it's a not even a rational choice. It's a crazy president doing a stupid thing um for absolutely no reason >> at the behest of his good friend and close ally.

[00:06:02]>> Well, I think there are two two two completely psychopathic leaders walking hand in hand into this morass >> which is causing a certain amount of economic pain here in the United States.

[00:06:16]Not very much honestly compared with other countries. Could you talk a little bit about you know the pain you see being um inflicted for countries especially in the global south?

[00:06:28]>> Well, everybody feels pain but some people feel an offset a very small group. Those who feel the pain are every one of us that uses uh oil or gas directly or indirectly. That's uh all of humanity and that's all of the economy.

[00:06:49]Uh those who feel the benefit are those uh relatively small part of society who happen to own some oil and gas and not the part that is encumbered in the Gulf but in reserves or production in the United States uh or in other regions of the world that are able to sell into a higher price. So in the United States, of course, most people are suffering, but uh the oil companies uh in the US are doing very well. Thank you. Um they do not exactly share their bounty with the the rest of the Americans. If they did, we'd all be still net losers in the end because this is a a negative shock to global supply. Uh there's just no way around the fact that we have less energy available right now. That hurts uh that hurts the real production side of the world economy. But those who happen to be oil producers and they are big campaign contributors to Mr. Trump uh they don't feel a squeeze. They feel uh a windfall. And the other windfall that's being uh observed right now is in the military contractors who just make a lot of money during war. uh and uh we see the Israeli stock market soaring uh in recent months because uh these are the war profiteeers and the wararm mongers. But this is not society as a whole. So people are suffering and they'll suffer a lot more if this continues.

[00:08:45]>> That's an important point to make about the military-industrial complex making out like bandits. Making out like the bandits that they are.

[00:08:52]>> Yes. Exactly. And and the wararmongers that they are. Yeah. Um do you have any special insights about about the suffering in the in the global south?

[00:09:01]>> Well, just to say that uh we know already in many countries uh oil uh is being rationed in one way or another.

[00:09:13]Prices are higher for people who can't afford this. uh food prices are going to rise uh not immediately but with the coming harvest that has been held back by a reduction of fertilizer supply and we are most likely moving into a very uh sharp El Nino uh which is a natural phenomenon um perhaps exacerbated by the human induced climate change but in any event we're moving into a a a climate uh environment which could be uh greatly worsening food insecurity uh 12 months from now. This is not an easy period by any remote calculation. Um and a lot of poor people whose overwhelming uh income share goes to food and survival. This will hurt.

[00:10:14]>> Yeah. Um, so you've worked a lot with the United Nations over the years. Um, and talk a little bit about whether the UN has proven itself fit for purpose. Um, especially over the 32 and a half months, 32 months, whatever, of the genocide in Gaza. Um because this project that we're running on the on the Iran crisis is a is an offshoot of our ongoing project on Gaza. Given that this whole war, the USIsraeli war on Iran grew out of in essence Israel's genocide in Gaza and its desire to reestablish what they think of as their military deterrent. Um, so both regarding the Gaza crisis and regarding the Iran crisis, how do you assess the performance of the UN both at the level of the security council and at the level of the specialized agencies like the World Food Program or the World Health Organization?

[00:11:27]Well, I would say this is a a disastrous period and the institution uh doesn't function the way that it uh needs to function. This is largely of course because the founding uh country and the host country for the United Nations, the U the US is uh directly in assaulting the United Nations. Uh it's obviously not only complicit in the genocide in Gaza and a partner in the war in Iran, but it is attacking the United Nations directly in every way. What do I mean by that? Well, the United States, especially in this Trump period, but not only with Trump, the United States denies international law. It doesn't respect the Security Council. It uses its veto in the security council to frustrate decisions. Even when something happens in the security council uh that doesn't incur a US veto, the US ignores it. Uh the US doesn't pay its bills uh to the UN. Israel is absolutely despicable and vile in how it treats the United Nations in its rhetoric. I won't say it's diplomacy because I don't think that Israel exhibits diplomacy. It has some professional diplomats, but they don't behave diplomatically. But they rip up the UN charter. They taunt the UN and they accuse the rest of the world of being anti-semitic when the rest of the world is a gasast at the genocide that Israel is committing. So all of this is a a very uh awful picture. Um and in this sense uh the UN doesn't uh achieve what it is designed to achieve.

[00:13:33]Now, I work day in day out uh with the UN, at the UN, for the UN, not not on my pay, I'm not on their payroll, but um I'm a big believer in the UN uh as a vital institution. So, I don't want to be misunderstood.

[00:13:51]I attribute the uh terrible crisis that we're facing to the United States, not to the UN per se, but the UN was designed to give first of all inordinate power to five so-called permanent members. But more than that, the UN is not really a a global government that can enforce its writ uh individual recalcitrant members. It is a um a a sharing of sovereignty by the member states to accomplish common purposes.

[00:14:37]And when important members decide that they don't want to participate in this way, the UN is not designed to overcome that. Uh that's not how the UN charter was created in 1945.

[00:14:54]So it is not an enforcement institution.

[00:14:57]Uh it is an institution that can enable cooperation and that sets global norms.

[00:15:06]The fact that the United States ignores the global norms is the disastrous condition of US politics right now. Um, all of this means of course the way that we function at the global level needs a serious rethink. We're not going to get it uh during Donald Trump's presidency, but the um thinking that is underway all over the world in light of uh the rogue behavior by the United States um I think can lead to some fruitful change in the future.

[00:15:46]In terms of other UN institutions, there are dozens of them. So it all depends on which ones we're talking about. But I would say uh that they show that they are important but completely vulnerable.

[00:15:59]Uh the fact of the existence of the International Court of Justice is extremely important in that South Africa and many other governments could bring a case against Israel for genocide. This is a a positive feature of our world that there is international law. There's a genocide convention and there's a place that this can be adjudicated. The fact that this case was brought by South Africa many years ago and is not yet adjudicated I think is terrible actually. Uh justice delayed is justice denied. And I think that this is uh really not right the way the ICJ takes its time. uh there could have been an opinion by the end of the term let's say of the first year of this case and that's how justice should be handled. So I'd like the ICJ uh to exist to be strengthened and to abide by a timeline that it's never accepted by the way. So it always is late and slow but I don't believe that late and slow justice is justice. So this is uh one example. When it comes to other parts of the UN, there are very important organizations like ENRA which is the UN organization precisely. Uh that was created after the Nagba and after the fact of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees to provide some measure of protection. Of course, Israel has had it literally in its gun sites.

[00:17:46]Uh, Israel is trying to destroy UNRA and has done a very good job of it with American complicity. Would you blame ENRA? No, I would blame Israel. I would blame the United States. uh other UN agencies are very notable for their professionalism, their bravery, their hard work for UN officials who die uh in uh the line of work uh for emergency assistance. But everything is hobbled by the United States. So this is uh a serious problem. The UN is an organization in a world of nation states. Uh the nation states is a kind of European organization of the world uh that has a long history. Uh it's highly problematic in many ways. The UN is an organization of member states. Uh it's not a global government uh even for the parts that it's responsible for. And so it is as strong or as weak uh as the leading member states. The fact that the United States is uh during much of the past 20 years uh ignoring the UN and now is in almost open war against the UN under Trump is uh what we're what we're seeing every day. It doesn't make me cynical about the UN. It makes me disgusted about American foreign policy.

[00:19:22]That's quite a different thing.

[00:19:24]>> Yeah, I'd share those those feelings.

[00:19:26]Um, and I think you're right to note that this is not only a Trump phenomenon, but it was also one of preceding American administrations that has been exacerbated under under the current Trump administration. I I'd like you to just quickly uh visit the what I think of as as the deplorable resolution that the security council adopted last November, resolution 2803 under which it completely seeded the um UN's authority over the ceasefire and reconstruction in Gaza to this bizarre I I think of it as something that King Leopold of of Belgium would have loved.

[00:20:09]to have run this Trumpun board of peace.

[00:20:14]I've I've discussed with Chaz Freeman and others, you know, what was China's um thinking in allowing that disastrous resolution to proceed? And it it's still a big question in my mind, but that happened. And now, how can the UN regain authority from this outrageous body?

[00:20:40]Well, the Trump board of peace or the family uh Eastern Mediterranean Riviera business, whatever it was meant to be, has one uh clear feature. There's not a penny that has been put into it. Uh it was a farce. It remains a farce. Uh it should be regarded as a dead letter. Uh it's not quite a dead letter, but uh it I think probably practically speaking is a dead letter. Um yes, it's completely shocking. And when I spoke to uh many uh representatives of Arab countries and others, they said, "Well, there's a genocide going on. Uh the United States is very hard to deal with. Maybe this will relieve the genocide."

[00:21:35]I thought it was not a very convincing answer. Uh but it was countries that were trying to pragmatically accommodate to a mad king. Uh and um of course you can't really accommodate to a mad king.

[00:21:51]Uh and uh there is no process underway right now.

[00:21:58]Uh the United States basically is complicit in a genocide. Israel is determined to finish the genocide. So I don't think the Board of Peace is first of all anything other than a charade and I don't see anybody actually investing any time or effort into it. The big problem is uh what do we do uh with Israel that acts uh as violently and vulgarly as any country in modern history. Um and the United States aids and abetss it actively. That's the real situation uh in the world. And uh I would like the other 185 countries or so that are not just strictly under the thumb of the US.

[00:22:54]There's the US and Israel and probably inevitably Micronia because by compact they have to vote with the United States and probably Vanuatu's vote can be brought along. And then there's Malay, >> maybe Argentina. Yeah, there's Malay and Argentina and uh and Paraguay for somewhat mysterious reasons to me. But in any event, there are a handful of countries that um I think are lost to the cause in terms of the vote, but there are more than 180 countries in the world that um that actually either quite directly and visibly or at least deep down know that we have a hell on earth now that needs to be solved and that the US is the obstacle, not the solution. The problem of course always is uh everyone's scared. Who's going to talk?

[00:23:54]Who's going to complain? Who's going to raise their voice? Uh and um nobody really wants to. Uh at the same time, I we'll see what happens, but I believe that the Trump era is intrinsically a failure for the United States. I don't think Trump can achieve any goals that he has promised to his followers. the fact that his approval rating is uh down to maybe 34 35% and disapproval rating up to around 80% uh I'm sorry 60% uh with the midterm elections coming up in which uh his party is very likely to lose control of one or both houses of Congress means that maybe there will be more politics to do the right thing possible in uh in future months. Um the the main I mean I think it's understandable why we're paralyzed. What I don't like is uh things like the resolution last November that play act or pretend that there's somehow normaly.

[00:25:08]I really am waiting for the the the little boy to scream the emperor has no clothes. Uh and the image is so horrible with Trump. But in any event, I think we really need that level of discourse, which is to say, "No, we're just grown-ups and we're not going to play these games anymore and um we're going to say it all together because we all believe it." That's what I hope we can get to globally.

[00:25:39]>> Yes. Um I mean of course the genocide in Gaza is going on in a different way but also you know causing a terrible loss of life.

[00:25:50]>> Well the the number of people killed every day straightforwardly is is very large and shocking and u completely murderous >> and and the number of people dying because of completely avoidable for completely avoidable reasons. and we have the ongoing genocide in Lebanon which is a part of this whole complex.

[00:26:10]So we we need to recognize all of that.

[00:26:14]Um do you I I'm really delighted that we've had this conversation. I think our time is probably coming to an end, but um Jeffrey Sax is there something that you can say specifically to Americans about what we should be doing to you know rectify the situation and call our own government to account. Sure. First of all, the the American uh uh sense of what's happening is quite accurate. Uh if you look at uh what Americans say, they support the Palestinian cause. Uh they call for a Palestinian state. Uh they um abhore what Israel is doing. They're against the war in Iran.

[00:27:04]The problem is not the American people.

[00:27:07]Of course, there are minority views that support uh what the government is doing, but most Americans do not. Uh our problem is uh our democracy is basically come to pieces.

[00:27:25]Uh this didn't just happen with Trump.

[00:27:28]We have an imperial state. We have a security state. Our foreign policy is largely guided by uh the president, the CIA, the security apparatus. Um Silicon Valley has become a very ugly actor in this to an important extent. Companies like Palunteer are disgusting. Absolutely disgusting. And many of the big tech companies have just signed on to large Pentagon contracts to become complicit in this. So this is uh our reality. It's uh um we have a government out of control. Uh we have a government uh driven largely by the militaryindustrial digital complex. Uh we have a Zionist lobby which is composed of all sorts of com branches to this. We have mega preachers who essentially preach genocide. It's it but this is not this is not the main will or voice of the American people.

[00:28:36]So our problem is to regain our government which has been captured by a lot of uh very narrow and uh pretty ugly interests. This is our reality. We have a vote in November.

[00:28:52]I think it can actually make a big difference. By the way, I am not partisan. I don't like either party. Uh I really don't like either party. Uh but practically speaking, I don't want Trump to have a free hand and I don't want the executive branch to have a free hand. So I want the Democrats to win this election. Not because this is a partisan issue, but because Trump has taken our government and run it for personal gain, family grift, and war, and we've got to put this to an end.

[00:29:30]>> Well said. And one great piece of news this week has been the victory of um in a an important New Jersey congressional primary of an American citizen who has worked as a doctor in in Gaza and has you know come back from Gaza with a full accounting of what he saw while there and he won his primary and will be let's let's hope you know set to be a voice in Congress after the end of this Jeffrey Saxs, thank you so much for giving us your time and your wisdom. I hope we can talk to you again.

[00:30:06]>> Absolutely. Thank you for doing this.

[00:30:07]It's so important for everybody. I appreciate it.

[00:30:10]>> Thank you. Yes, we do what we can. Um, >> exactly.

[00:30:14]>> Getting our government out of I mean what what we are calling for is obviously a speedy and effective ceasefire in in um the US war on Iran.

[00:30:27]It's hard right now to think how that ceasefire might actually effectively be monitored and and you know we want to have a a neutral, reliable, credible body to monitor it and I'm not sure that the UN is in that position right now.

[00:30:43]>> Yeah. Could I just give one uh quick answer? Uh I want the U I want the US to go home.

[00:30:50]>> Just go home.

[00:30:51]>> Just hold back. We don't we don't need any agreements on anything. just lift the blockade, put uh the uh the navy away. Iran has every reason to reopen the straight of Hormuz. Every reason.

[00:31:09]And by the way, Iran's backers, China and Russia, have every reason for Iran to do that as well. We don't even need an agreement. We need to stop doing stupid things. We did something incredibly stupid on February 28th. Uh we just need to stop doing a stupid thing. Go home. It's not even a ceasefire, by the way. Just go home.

[00:31:37]>> Actually, that's a great point and I'm glad you made it because, you know, we need to remember that the blockade, the US blockade, >> yes, >> was was implemented after the ceasefire.

[00:31:47]And also the other thing I I would say in addition to Yankee go home or Yankee come home since we're >> exactly >> sitting here would would be to to just lift the sanctions and >> I'm all in favor of it but for the first point by the way just leave. You tried to do something one day. It was a crazy Netanyahu Trump scheme that anyone of any intelligence would have said, "Don't even try it. It failed within 24 hours.

[00:32:22]Now just come home." That's all.

[00:32:26]>> That's great. Yes. Thank you so much.

[00:32:29]>> Very good. Thank you. We'll speak again soon. Thanks a lot.