🔴 BREAKING: 45° National Temperature Gap Fueling Outbreak - Death Valley 91° vs Green Bay 46°

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]Right now, at this very moment, a weather system is forming that forecasters are calling one of the most dangerous setups of the entire spring season. And here is the part that most people do not know yet. It is not just one storm. It is not just one day. We are talking about five consecutive days of potentially life-threatening severe weather stretching from Texas all the way up to Wisconsin. And the worst day of all is still 4 days away. Stay with me for the next few minutes because in 30 seconds I'm going to tell you exactly which cities are at the highest risk.

[00:00:32]And if yours is on that list, you need to start preparing right now. Before we go any further, I want to tell you something that will shock you. The National Weather Service is already issuing outlooks all the way through next Monday. And the words they are using in their internal discussions include phrases like widespread outbreak and significant tornado threat. Those are not words forecasters throw around lightly. Those are words they use when they are genuinely concerned. But here's the twist you were not expecting. While everyone is focused on the big weekend event, there is a completely separate and very real danger happening today, Wednesday, across the northern Rockies.

[00:01:12]We are talking about wind gusts between 75 and 85 mph. Hurricane force winds in Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah today.

[00:01:23]and almost nobody is talking about it.

[00:01:25]We will get to that in just a moment.

[00:01:27]First, let me give you the big picture so you understand exactly what is happening and why this week is so unusual. A massive upper level storm system is organizing over the central part of the country and it is drawing energy from a cold air mass plunging down from Canada while simultaneously pulling warm moist air up from the Gulf of Mexico. When those two air masses collide, severe weather is inevitable.

[00:01:52]The question is always how bad, where, and when. And right now, we have very specific answers to all three of those questions. Here is what I promised you in the first 30 seconds. The cities at the highest risk through this entire event include Witchah, Topeka, Kansas City, Omaha, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, De Moine, Minneapolis, Milwaukee, and the Chicago metro area. If you live in any of those cities, this video is for you.

[00:02:19]Do not go anywhere. I will give you daybyday, hourby- hour timing for every single one of those locations and dozens more. And coming up at the 5minute mark, I'm going to show you something that the forecast models are showing for Sunday and Monday that is genuinely alarming.

[00:02:36]Do not skip ahead. The context matters.

[00:02:38]Now, let me walk you through exactly what today, Wednesday, looks like across the country. Starting on the East Coast, and this surprises a lot of people.

[00:02:47]Temperatures in the Northeast this morning are running mild to cool. New York City is sitting at 66° with sunshine. Philadelphia at 70° with broken clouds. Washington DC at 70° with scattered clouds. Baltimore at 70° broken clouds. These are actually quite nice conditions for miday. But do not let that fool you. By noon Eastern time today, a line of storms is going to fire up just east of Columbus, Ohio, pushing toward Buffalo and Rochester. Those storms are going to become widespread quickly. We are primarily looking at winds of 40 to 60 mph and some isolated quarter to half-dollar size hail across western Pennsylvania and upstate New York. There is a very low probability of a brief spin-up tornado somewhere just south of Pittsburgh, but the overall tornado threat is minimal today across the northeast. If you are in Pittsburgh today, temperatures are at a pleasant 61° with passing clouds right now. Enjoy it. By seven or eight o'clock this evening, Eastern time, those storms push through and things start to quiet down.

[00:03:51]But if you are in Washington DC, Richmond, or Virginia Beach, expect some rumbles of thunder and gusty winds in the evening hours. Now, let me talk about what is happening across the South today because this is where a lot of people are caught off guard. Dallas is setting at 77° right now, sunny and warm. Houston at 79° with passing clouds. San Antonio at 77 degrees, Austin at 79 degrees. These temperatures are running above average for miday and that warm moist air is going to be a critical ingredient fueling the storm systems later this week. For today in Texas and Oklahoma, we have a marginal threat of severe weather. That means isolated storms are possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected. Oklahoma City is currently at 75° with passing clouds. Tulsa at 75°.

[00:04:40]Fort Worth at 75 degrees. The primary concern if storms do fire this afternoon across the Texas panhandle is isolated large hail. No significant tornado risk today for Texas or Oklahoma. But here is the story that has forecasters genuinely concerned today. And I mentioned it at the very beginning. If you live in Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, or Utah, stop what you are doing and pay close attention right now. A slight risk of severe weather has been issued for the northern Rocky Mountain region. And the primary threat is damaging winds up to 75 to 85 miles per hour. To put that in perspective, hurricane force winds begin at 74 miles per hour. We are talking about hurricane force wind gusts in Montana and Wyoming today, not tropical storm winds, not thunderstorm gusts. We are talking about gusts powerful enough to flip vehicles, shatter windows, and down trees across roadways. Current conditions in the affected area this morning tell the whole story. Billings, Montana is at 61 degrees with passing clouds. That deceptively calm morning sky before everything changes. Bosezeman at 61 degrees, Helena at 63°, Missoula at 59°, Callispel at only 55°, Casper, Wyoming at 61°, Cheyenne at 63°. These temperatures will rise through the afternoon, and as the surface heats up, those winds are going to intensify dramatically. Unlike the classic severe weather you see in the Great Plains with organized supercell thunderstorms, what is happening in the Rockies today will be more scattered, less organized, but still extremely dangerous when it comes to wind. The threat begins in earnest around 2:00 in the afternoon local time across Montana and Wyoming and continues through approximately 9:00 in the evening. After sunset, things start to become more isolated and the overnight hours should be calmer, but that afternoon and early evening window is genuinely dangerous. If you have outdoor furniture, trampolines, or anything that can become a projectile in 85 mileph winds, bring it inside today. For the rest of the country on Wednesday, here is a quick current conditions snapshot.

[00:06:44]Chicago is at 55° with partly sunny skies right now. Indianapolis at 59° with sunshine. Columbus, Ohio at 66°, scattered clouds. Cleveland at 57°, broken clouds, noticeably cooler there.

[00:06:58]Louisville at 72°, sunny and mild.

[00:07:01]Nashville at 72 degrees with passing clouds. Memphis at 75 degrees, passing clouds. Out west, Denver is at 66 degrees with passing clouds. Boulder at 63°. Sunny. Colorado Springs at 59°.

[00:07:15]Salt Lake City is already at 81° with broken clouds. Las Vegas at 79°. Phoenix sitting at 86° this morning. Tucson at 81°. Albuquerque at 73° with partly sunny skies. El Paso at 81°. On the Pacific coast, Seattle is at 54 degrees under cloudy skies. Portland, Oregon at 54 degrees, mostly cloudy. Spokane at 63 degrees. Boise at 72° with passing clouds. Sacramento at 59° with sunshine.

[00:07:44]San Francisco at 55° under low clouds.

[00:07:48]Los Angeles at 63° overcast. San Diego at 64°. Reno at 70°. Sunny and mild.

[00:07:55]Down in Florida, temperatures are running very warm today. Miami at 84 degrees with broken clouds. Fort Lauderdale at 88 degrees, partly sunny.

[00:08:04]Tampa at 82 degrees. Orlando at 81 degrees. Jacksonville at 75° with broken clouds. Pensacola at 72° sunny. Now, I want to fast forward to Thursday because that is when this story really starts to change. Thursday's story is all about Kansas. A new low pressure system is developing and it is going to trigger afternoon supercell thunderstorms across the central plains. The National Weather Service has issued a level two out of five slight risk of severe weather specifically for Witchah, Manhattan, and Topeka, Kansas. If you live in any of those cities, Thursday afternoon is when you need to be watching the skies closely. Here is the timing for Thursday. Storm development is expected to begin in the early to midafternoon, roughly between 1 and 3:00 local time.

[00:08:48]By midafternoon, between 3 and 6:00 is when the threat peaks across Kansas.

[00:08:53]These storms will push eastward into the evening hours and by 8 to 9:00 at night, activity should begin to diminish. What is the primary threat Thursday?

[00:09:02]Baseball-sized hail. Let me say that again. Baseball-sized hail. That is hail at least 2 and 3/4 in in diameter. And a single stone that size can crack your windshield, dent your car hood, damage your roof, and send anyone caught outside to the hospital. A marginal threat for severe weather extends Thursday from Texas all the way back through Illinois. So storms will be possible across Kansas City, Salina, even the Topeka corridor throughout the afternoon. A note of caution here, one of the forecast models is being unusually aggressive about Thursday's storm count. It is showing significantly more supercell development than the other models. The consensus view is that Thursday stays fairly isolated, one to two significant hail storms. But that aggressive model is worth mentioning because it has been correct before.

[00:09:47]Whether you are in Witchah or Salina or anywhere along Interstate 70 in Kansas Thursday afternoon, keep your weather apps open. Now we get to Friday. And Friday is interesting because in many ways it is Thursday's storm threat on a slightly larger scale. The risk of severe weather on Friday will continue across the central plains. And here is what is different. The storm activity is expected to be more widespread compared to Thursday. Not dramatically so, but the line of supercellular development looks to stretch from Omaha back through Oklahoma City. That is a 500-mile corridor of potential baseball plus-sized hail and damaging winds.

[00:10:23]Friday timing. A complex of thunderstorms from the previous night will already be pushing through Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky during the morning and early afternoon hours Friday, bringing winds and some hail, but nothing especially organized. That is the warm-up act. The main event for Friday kicks off in the afternoon when fresh storm development erupts across Kansas and Nebraska. Between 1 and six o'clock in the afternoon is the peak threat window for Friday across the central plains. The Kansas City metro area has a slight risk level two out of five on Friday. St. Louis, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Springfield, Illinois all carry a marginal threat. Here is the Friday plot twist nobody expected. The tornado risk begins to increase on Friday. It is still low. not our primary concern, but a slight tornado risk is possible somewhere around or just north of Kansas City by Friday afternoon. The low-level winds, which I will explain in detail in just a moment, are starting to slowly strengthen on Friday compared to Thursday. That matters enormously for tornadoes. Then those Friday evening storms push east overnight, bringing some thunderstorm activity through the Midwest. But by Saturday morning, the severe weather threat is relatively low.

[00:11:33]And that brings us to the moment I told you about at the beginning of this video. The part that has forecasters watching their screens with genuine concern. Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

[00:11:43]Coming up right now. If you are still with me, I want you to do one thing right now before I continue. Drop a comment below telling me your city and state. As I go through this forecast, I am going to call out specific cities, but I want to make sure I address your location directly. Type your city and state in the comments right now, and I will make sure you are covered in this forecast. Your neighbors will thank you, too. Now, let me explain something called the low-level jetream because it is the key to understanding why the weekend looks so dangerous. You have probably heard about the jetream at high altitude, the one that steers weather systems across the country. But there is also a low-level jet that flows at much lower altitudes, usually between 3,000 and 6,000 ft above the ground, and it is the single most important ingredient for tornado formation. When the low-level jet is weak or absent, as it has been this week so far, even organized supercell thunderstorms struggle to produce tornadoes, the wind rotation just is not there. But when the low-level jet strengthens, it causes wind direction and wind speed to change dramatically with altitude, a condition meteorologists call wind shear. And that wind shear is what causes supercell thunderstorms to develop rotation and potentially produce tornadoes. On Thursday and Friday this week, the low-level jet is weak. That is why our tornado risk through Friday stays low.

[00:13:00]On Saturday, a new storm system begins to develop over the Rocky Mountains. The low-level jet starts to increase across Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. Not dramatically, not yet, but enough to introduce a low-end tornado risk across the central plains Saturday afternoon.

[00:13:15]But Sunday, Sunday is when everything changes. On Sunday afternoon, the low-level jet is going to rapidly intensify. We are talking about low-level winds increasing to 30 to 40 knots in a very elongated corridor stretching from Texas all the way up through Minnesota and Wisconsin. Any supercell thunderstorm that develops in that environment will be operating in conditions highly favorable for producing tornadoes. And here is the truly alarming part I promised you at the 5-minute mark. The European forecast model, one of the most accurate weather prediction tools in the world, is showing a potent low pressure system deepening rapidly to 995 mibars by 1:00 Sunday afternoon over Kansas. That is a very deep, very strong surface low for May. And as that system organizes, it is going to generate a widespread severe weather event stretching from Texas all the way to Minneapolis with damaging winds, very large hail, and potentially several tornadoes. Sunday is shaping up to be a possible severe weather outbreak. And I do not use the word outbreak casually. Let me give you the Sunday timeline. Storm initiation begins Saturday evening across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. Those overnight storms will complicate Sunday morning setup. By Sunday midday, around noon to 2:00 local time, fresh supercell development begins firing ahead of the main cold front. Between 2:00 and 7:00 Sunday afternoon is when the tornado risk will be at its highest, particularly for Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota, where that low-level jet will be strongest. By Sunday evening into the overnight hours, those storms continue pushing east into Arkansas, Wisconsin, and Illinois. The exact placement of Sunday's highest tornado risk is still uncertain. These are complex systems, and even a 50-mi shift in the storm track can dramatically change which specific areas are most impacted. That is why I am going to keep updating you every single day as we get closer. But let me be very specific about Sunday's city bycity outlook so you know what to expect.

[00:15:11]Minneapolis is currently sitting at 59° with sunshine this Wednesday morning.

[00:15:16]Beautiful day today, but Sunday is a completely different story. Minneapolis carries one of the highest tornado risks of the entire event. The low-level jet will be strongest across Minnesota and southern Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon.

[00:15:28]If you are in Minneapolis, St. Paul, Rochester, Minnesota, Duth, or anywhere in the southern half of Minnesota.

[00:15:34]Sunday afternoon is when you need to be in a weatherare mindset. De Moine, Iowa is at 63° today with sunshine. De Moines sits squarely in the primary threat zone for Sunday. Hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Omaha, Nebraska at 68° today. Omaha could see the western fringe of Sunday's worst storms. Very large hail is a near certainty if supercells track near the city. Kansas City, Missouri at 70° today. Sunny and pleasant. Kansas City is essentially at ground zero for the Sunday through Monday transition. On Sunday, it is in the marginal to slight risk zone. By Monday, it could be in the moderate risk zone. I am going to explain why in just a moment. St. Louis at 68° today, sunny. St. Louis carries a real threat on Sunday evening as storms push eastward. Chicago at 55° today, partly sunny. Chicago and the surrounding suburbs carry a threat Sunday night into Monday morning as the storm system progresses east. Green Bay is only 46 degrees today, overcast, but severe weather will still reach that far north Sunday into Monday. Milwaukee at 54° today. Milwaukee is in the severe weather zone for Sunday and especially Monday. Madison, Wisconsin at 57° today.

[00:16:47]Madison sits right in the heart of the Sunday through Monday threat corridor.

[00:16:50]Let me now walk you through what Monday looks like because Monday may be even more significant than Sunday. Here is the Monday situation. After Sunday's storm system organizes and pushes the deepening surface low into the upper Midwest, that same energy gets absorbed into a larger complex system. By Monday, the storm coverage is going to be enormous. Nearly the entire state of Wisconsin is already under a slight risk of severe weather on the Monday 6-day outlook. And that risk will almost certainly be upgraded before Monday actually arrives. The Monday setup features two separate low pressure areas. One developing near the Dakotas in Minnesota and a second forming across the south central plains. That dual low pressure structure is what makes Monday potentially even worse than Sunday.

[00:17:35]Because instead of one narrow corridor of intense weather, you end up with a very broad swath of severe weather potential stretching from Texas all the way to Canada. Monday timing. Storm initiation begins Sunday night across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska, continuing into Monday morning. Fresh development fires Monday afternoon between 1 and 6:00 in the most favorable zone near Minneapolis through Kansas City. That corridor represents the highest ceiling for severe weather on Monday, including the risk of significant long track tornadoes. By Monday evening, storms are impacting Illinois, Indiana, possibly Ohio. The system begins moving off to the northeast and east by late Monday night and into Tuesday. Monday, specific city threats. Oklahoma City at 75° today with passing clouds. Oklahoma City faces damaging winds, large hail, and a low-end tornado risk on Monday. Tulsa at 75° today. Tulsa is in a similar position to Oklahoma City on Monday.

[00:18:34]Fort Worth and Dallas at 75 and 77° respectively today. The Dallas and Fort Worth area carries at least a moderate threat of damaging winds and hail on Monday with a possible low tornado risk.

[00:18:46]Let me keep going through the southern states because a lot of these areas are going to be impacted in ways people are not expecting. Shreveport, Louisiana at 77° today, sunny. Shreveport faces a marginal to slight severe weather risk Monday. Baton Rouge at 79°, sunny and warm. New Orleans at 73°, sunny today.

[00:19:05]These areas are less likely to see the worst of it, but should not be dismissed entirely. Birmingham, Alabama at 73 degrees today with passing clouds.

[00:19:14]Nashville at 72 degrees with passing clouds. Memphis at 75°. All three of these cities could see some storm activity on the eastern fringe of Monday's complex on Monday evening. Now, let me go through the states where things look quieter this week because not everyone lives in the storm corridor, and it is important you know whether your area is affected. Starting in the southeast, Atlanta is at 68° today with sunshine. Atlanta should have a relatively quiet week except for some possible activity on the eastern fringe Tuesday. Charlotte, North Carolina at 66°, passing clouds. Charlotte is far enough east to mostly escape this event.

[00:19:50]Raleigh at 72°, scattered clouds.

[00:19:53]Raleigh also stays mostly out of the primary threat zone this week. Along the Florida peninsula, essentially the entire state is going to be quiet through this event. Miami at 84 degrees today with broken clouds. Fort Lauderdale at 88 degrees, Tampa at 82 degrees, Orlando at 81 degrees, Jacksonville at 75 degrees. These cities are dealing with their own heat dominated pattern while the severe weather stays well to the north and northwest. Key West at 88° today, broken clouds and warm. The Keys will stay beautiful and storm-free this week. Cape Coral at 84°, Fort Meyers at 84°, Sarasota at 84°, Clearwater and St. Petersburg both at 84°, West Palm Beach at 82°. All of Florida remains outside the severe weather zone for this entire event. Up the Atlantic coast, conditions are different. Washington DC at 70° today, as I mentioned. Richmond, Virginia at 70°. Norfolk at 72°, Virginia Beach at 68°. These mid-Atlantic cities are mostly watching from the sidelines this week, though some stray showers from the eastern edge of the storm system are possible by Tuesday. Further up the coast, Philadelphia at 70° today, broken clouds. New York City at 66°, sunny. It is actually a lovely morning in New York. Newark at 70° with broken clouds.

[00:21:12]New York residents can expect a relatively quiet week overall, though Tuesday might bring some gusty winds and possible thunderstorms as the system races northeast. Jersey City at 70°, Trenton at 66°, Atlantic City at 70°, sunny today. Into New England, Boston at 55° this morning with light rain and mostly cloudy skies. It is a gray, cool morning in Boston. A familiar feeling in May. Providence at 55°, overcast.

[00:21:39]Hartford, Connecticut at 55° with light rain. New Haven at 59° with partly sunny skies. Springfield, Massachusetts at 52°. Worcester at 48 degrees with fog.

[00:21:51]Quite cool for midmay. Portland, Maine at 48 degrees, overcast. Banganger at 54 degrees. Burlington, Vermont at 48° with light rain. These New England cities will stay largely removed from the severe weather events through Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a weakening system may bring some heavy rain to the region, but organized severe weather is unlikely. Moving into upstate New York, Albany at only 50° with light rain this morning. A chilly gray day up there.

[00:22:17]Buffalo at 61°, mostly cloudy. Rochester at 63°, Syracuse at 54°. These cities should stay on the quiet side through the weekend, though there is a chance some storms push through on Tuesday.

[00:22:29]Now, let me go through the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian region more thoroughly because a lot of people in these areas have been asking about their cities.

[00:22:36]Pittsburgh at 61° today, as I mentioned, with thunder showers already showing up at Eerie. Pittsburgh faces a possible storm passage today, this Wednesday, before things quiet down. By Thursday, Friday, and the weekend, Pittsburgh is far enough east to stay out of the primary severe weather zone. Allentown, Pennsylvania at 66° today. Sunny, Harrisburg at 64°, Lancaster at 68°, Reading at 70°. These South Central Pennsylvania cities look quiet through the weekend. Charleston, West Virginia at 63° today with light rain.

[00:23:06]Huntington, West Virginia at 61°.

[00:23:09]Morgantown at 57° with light rain. West Virginia is going to have a rainy Wednesday, but largely quiet severe weather potential through the weekend.

[00:23:17]Rowan Oak, Virginia at 70° today, scattered clouds. Charlottesville at 68°, sunny. Fredericksburg at 72°, scattered clouds. These Virginia cities look fine through the weekend. Now, let me take you across the Appalachian into the Midwest more thoroughly because some of the most important cities for this event sit in that zone. Columbus, Ohio at 66° today. Scattered clouds. Columbus sits on the eastern boundary of where storms might track by Sunday evening or Monday. Keep watching the forecast for Columbus. Cleveland at 57° with broken clouds. Cincinnati at 70°, scattered clouds. Dayton at 66°, sunny. Toledo at 57°, mostly cloudy. Youngstown at 64°.

[00:23:57]Indiana. Indianapolis at 59°, sunny today. Indianapolis could see storms on the eastern fringe Sunday night or Monday morning. Southbend at 54 degrees, mostly cloudy. Fort Wayne at 57 degrees, partly sunny. Evansville at 72 degrees, sunny. Terote at 66°, sunny. Illinois.

[00:24:15]Chicago at 55° as noted. Aurora at 57° passing clouds. Springfield, Illinois at 64°, sunny. Rockford at 57°, scattered clouds. Peoria at 61°, passing clouds.

[00:24:29]All of Illinois is going to be watching Saturday, Sunday, and especially Monday very closely. The western half of Illinois sits squarely in the threat corridor. Michigan, Detroit at 52 degrees this morning, overcast. Grand Rapids at 45° overcast and quite cool.

[00:24:44]Lancing at 45°, Ann Arbor at 48°, Kalamazoo at 46°, Flint at 45°, overcast, Sageno at 48°. These Michigan cities are all currently running cool with overcast skies. The primary severe weather threat for Michigan comes Sunday night through Monday as storms push northeastward. Residents of southern Michigan should not take Sunday night lightly. Wisconsin, as I mentioned, is one of the most watched states for this entire event. Milwaukee at 54 degrees today, Green Bay at 46°, Madison at 57°, Appleton at 48°, Shbboan at 48°, Wasaw at 48°, Lacrosse at 59°. These Wisconsin cities will go from a quiet, cool week to a potentially violent Sunday night and Monday. Minnesota, Minneapolis at 59°, sunny today. St. Paul at 57°, Rochester at 57°, Duth at 57°, Mano at 59°, Morehead at 61°, Baiji at 59°.

[00:25:43]Minnesota carries some of the highest tornado risk for Sunday afternoon and evening. Iowa De Moines at 63 degrees, sunny Iowa City at 61 degrees, Cedar Rapids at 59 degrees, Davenport at 61°, Ames at 63°, Waterlue at 61°, Iowa City at 61°, Mason City at 59°. Iowa is in the bullseye zone for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. There is no other way to say it. If you live in Iowa, this is your most important weather week of the spring. Nebraska, Omaha at 68 degrees, sunny, Lincoln at 70 degrees, Grand Island at 45 degrees, sunny but unusually cool. North Plat at 70°, Carney at 70°, Scotsluff at 72°.

[00:26:29]Nebraska faces a real hail and wind threat Thursday through Saturday with the tornado risk increasing significantly on Sunday and Monday.

[00:26:36]Kansas, Witchah at 73° today. Topeka at 70°, Kansas City, Kansas at 70°. Salina at 70°, Dodge City at 70°, Hutchinson at 73°, Garden City at 64°, Hayes at 70°, Liberal at sunny and mild today.

[00:26:55]Manhattan at 70°, Emporia at 72°, Lawrence at 70°, Pittsburgh, Kansas at 72°, Junction City at 72°. All of Kansas is in play from Thursday straight through Monday. That is five straight days of severe weather potential. Make sure your emergency kit is ready. Know where your storm shelter is. Have your batterypowered weather radio working.

[00:27:17]Oklahoma. Oklahoma City at 75° today.

[00:27:20]Tulsa at 75°. Norman at 75°. Lton at 75°. Enid at 75°. Still Water at 75°.

[00:27:29]Shaune at 70°. Muscogee at 75°.

[00:27:33]Mallister at 75 degrees, Altus at 79 degrees, Duncan at 75 degrees, Hugo at 63 degrees. All of Oklahoma faces significant severe weather potential Thursday through Monday. Oklahoma is unfortunately accustomed to this type of pattern, and residents there know what to do. Missouri, Kansas City, Missouri at 70°, St. Louis at 68°, Springfield, Missouri at 70°, Columbia at 66°, Joplain at 72°, Jefferson City at 70°, Branson at 73°, Hannibal at 64°, Sadelia at 70°, Cape Gerardo at 73° nearby.

[00:28:11]Missouri is in the heart of the action from Friday through Monday. Kansas City in particular could see severe weather on four consecutive days. Arkansas, Little Rock at 73°, passing clouds. Fort Smith at 61°, overcast today, but much warmer and stormier by the weekend.

[00:28:27]Fagatville at 68°, Bentonville at 72°, Jonesboro at 73°, Tex Arcana at 79°, Batesville at 70°, Arkansas faces a real threat Sunday evening and especially Monday as the storm system pushes south and east. Now, let me address the high plain states because a lot of people there have been asking about their communities. North Dakota, Bismar at 63 degrees, sunny today, Fargo at 61 degrees, Williston at 72 degrees, Dickinson at 70 degrees, Grand Forks at 61°, Minet at 72°. North Dakota is on the northern edge of the main threat zone. The Saturday through Monday setup could bring some severe weather to southern North Dakota, particularly along the southern tier of the state.

[00:29:09]South Dakota, Sou Falls at 64°, passing clouds, Rapid City at 64 degrees, sunny, Aberdine at 63°, sunny, Pierre at 64°, sunny. South Dakota faces a marginal threat Saturday and Sunday with the greatest risk across the southeastern corner of the state. Montana, we already covered the wind threat today for Montana, but looking ahead at the weekend, Great Falls is at 72° today after that wind threat passes this afternoon. Billings at 61°, Boseman at 61 degrees, Helena at 63 degrees, Missoula at 59 degrees, Callispel at 55 degrees. After today's wind event, Montana should see quieter conditions through most of the weekend, though some storm activity is possible along the southeastern corner by Sunday. Wyoming, Casper at 61°, Cheyenne at 63°. After the wind event today, Wyoming also settles down. However, the southwestern corner of Wyoming could see some storm activity by Sunday. Colorado. Denver at 66° passing clouds. Boulder at 63 degrees, Colorado Springs at 59°. Fort Collins at 61° sunny. Gley at 63° sunny.

[00:30:18]PBLO at 61°. Grand Junction at 72°.

[00:30:23]Durango at 64° sunny. Longmont at 64° sunny. Colorado sits in an interesting spot. The front range, meaning Denver, Boulder, Colorado Springs, and Fort Collins, faces an elevated chance of severe weather Thursday as the new low pressure system develops. After that, Colorado stays mostly on the western periphery of the main event. New Mexico, Albuquerque at 73°, partly sunny today.

[00:30:47]Santa Fe at 70°, sunny, Los Cusus at 79°, sunny, Roswell at 73°, sunny.

[00:30:54]Farmington at 66°, El Paso, Texas at 81°. New Mexico and far west Texas have a marginal severe weather threat today, mostly for large hail. Utah, Salt Lake City at 81° with broken clouds today.

[00:31:08]That is warm for midmay in Salt Lake.

[00:31:10]St. George at 82°, sunny, Provo at 72°, Ogden at 73°. After the wind threat today in northern Utah and Idaho, the weekend looks generally quiet for Utah.

[00:31:22]Idaho. Boise at 72°, passing clouds.

[00:31:25]Idaho Falls at 72° sunny. Pocutello at 82° actually quite warm. Cordelane at 64° sunny. Twin Falls area at 79° nearby. Like Utah, Idaho faces the wind threat today before settling into a quieter pattern through the weekend.

[00:31:42]Nevada, Las Vegas at 79 degrees, passing clouds. Reno at 70°, sunny, Carson City at 70°, sunny. Nevada looks completely quiet through the entire event. No severe weather concerns at all. Arizona, Phoenix at 86°, partly sunny. Tucson at 81°, scattered clouds. Flagstaff at 68°, sunny. Prescuit at 75°, sunny. Yuma at 79°, Scottsdale at 84 degrees, Tempe at 86°, Mesa at 86°, Glendale at 86°, Chandler at 82°. Arizona is firmly locked in a warm, mostly dry pattern this week with no severe weather concerns. California, Los Angeles at 63°, overcast. San Diego at 64°, San Francisco at 55°, low clouds. Sacramento at 59°, Fresno at 63° with broken clouds, Bakersfield at 64°, sunny.

[00:32:39]Riverside at 63° overcast. San Bernardino at 63° overcast. Anaheim at 63° overcast. Irvine at 63° overcast.

[00:32:50]Long Beach at 63° overcast. Pasadena at 61° overcast. Burbank at 61°, Glendale at 61°, Santa Monica at 63 degrees with broken clouds, Hollywood at 61°, San Jose at 57°, scattered clouds, Oakland at 55°, partly sunny. Berkeley at 55°, conquered at 61°, scattered clouds, Pleasanton at 57°, Liverour at 57°, Santa Rosa at 54°, passing clouds, Pedaluma at 55°, Napa at 55°, Reading at 55°, Clear Chico at 63°, Stockton at 63°, Modesto at 63°, Turlock at 63°, Merrced at 61°, Vicelia at 61°, Sunny Fres. O as noted at 63° Monterey at 57° partly sunny. Selenus at 57° overcast.

[00:33:47]Santa Cruz at 57° scattered clouds.

[00:33:51]Santa Barbara at 59° low clouds. San Louis Abyispo at 57° overcast. Santa Maria at 57°. Ventura at 61°. Oxnard at 61°. Thousand Oaks at 61° mostly cloudy.

[00:34:06]Camaro at 61°. Palm Springs at 75° sunny. Coachella at 79° sunny. Palm Desert at 79°. India at 79°. Cathedral City area at similar temperatures.

[00:34:19]Joshua Tree at 75° sunny. Big Bear Lake at 59° sunny. California looks entirely clear of any severe weather this entire week. That is the good news for the West Coast. Oregon, Portland at 54°, mostly cloudy. Salem at 54°, scattered clouds.

[00:34:37]Eugene at 52° partly sunny. Medford at 54° scattered clouds. Bend at 48° passing clouds. Corvalis at 54°. Atoria at 54° light rain and fog. Kuz Bay at 55° passing clouds. Roseberg at 52°.

[00:34:55]Ontario, Oregon at 73°, sunny. Oregon will stay entirely removed from the severe weather corridor this week.

[00:35:02]Washington State, Seattle at 54°, cloudy. Tacoma at 52° light rain and mostly cloudy. Olympia at 52° light rain. Bellingham at 54° light rain.

[00:35:14]Everett at 52° overcast. Belleview at 54° cloudy. Redmond at 54°. Spokane at 63° passing clouds. Yaka at 55° more clouds than sun. Wachi at 55° with rain and fog. Walawwala at 59°. Pullman at 57°. Kenowick, Pasco, and Richland area at 61 degrees with light rain this morning. The entire Pacific Northwest stays well removed from any severe weather threat this week. Alaska, Anchorage at 43°, overcast. Fairbanks at 48°, broken clouds. Juno at 45°, broken clouds. Sitka at 48°, Ketchacan at 48°.

[00:35:55]The Alaskan interior is running very cold with some areas near the Arctic north of the Brooks Range sitting at -13 degrees Fahrenheit. This Arctic air mass is one of the sources of cold air helping to fuel the severe weather potential across the central United States, Hawaii, Honolulu at 75° with passing clouds. Hilo at 66° passing clouds. Beautiful and stable conditions across the Hawaiian Islands this week with no severe weather concerns. Now, let me come back to the full picture one more time and give you the complete summary of what to expect daybyday.

[00:36:28]Wednesday today, wind threat 75 to 85 miles hour for Montana, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming from 2 to 9:00 p.m. local time.

[00:36:37]Isolated severe storms with hail and gusty winds for the Northeast, arriving noon to 1:00 p.m. Eastern and ending by 7 to 8:00 p.m. Isolated hail possible Texas panhandle afternoon. No significant tornado risk anywhere today.

[00:36:50]Thursday, isolated supercell thunderstorms in Kansas, primarily Witchah, Manhattan, Topeka Corridor, from 1 to 6:00 p.m. local time.

[00:36:59]Baseball-sized hail is the main threat.

[00:37:01]A marginal risk of hail and winds extends from Texas through Illinois. No meaningful tornado risk Thursday.

[00:37:07]Friday, morning complex of storms pushes through Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky.

[00:37:12]Fresh supercell development across Kansas and Nebraska. 1 to 6:00 p.m.

[00:37:16]local time. Baseball plus-sized hail likely in the Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma City corridor. Slight risk for Kansas City metro. A very low tornado risk for northern Missouri Friday afternoon.

[00:37:28]Slight risk for Kansas City. Marginal risk including St. Louis, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Springfield, Illinois. Saturday, new storm system develops over the Rocky Mountains Saturday morning. Low-level jet begins increasing by Saturday afternoon. Supercell thunderstorms fire across Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska Saturday afternoon into evening. Primary threats are very large hail and damaging winds. A low-level tornado risk exists, especially by Saturday evening. The European model has storms pushing into Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin during the overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday. A slight risk zone covers Oklahoma through Iowa and Missouri on Saturday. Sunday. This is the day everyone needs to watch most closely right now. Surface low deepens to 995 mibars over Kansas by 100 p.m.

[00:38:16]Sunday. Low-level jet rapidly intensifies to 30 to 40 knots across a wide corridor. Storm initiation begins Sunday late morning to noon. Peak severe weather threat from 2 to 7:00 p.m. local time across the plains and Midwest.

[00:38:29]large hail, widespread damaging winds, and a real tornado risk. Potentially significant tornadoes from Texas through Minnesota. Sunday evening, storms push into Illinois, Wisconsin, and Arkansas.

[00:38:41]Overnight Sunday through Monday morning, storm activity continues east. The possible impact zone for Sunday includes Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Witchah, Kansas City, De Moine, Minneapolis, Madison, and Milwaukee. Monday, the biggest and potentially most significant day of the entire stretch. Two separate low pressure systems amplify the threat zone enormously. A wide corridor from Texas to Wisconsin faces widespread damaging winds, very large hail, and the risk of strong tornadoes. Best chance for significant severe weather near Minneapolis through Kansas City corridor on Monday afternoon. Oklahoma and Texas face renewed threats with possible low-end tornadoes. Storms impact Illinois, Indiana, and possibly Ohio Monday evening. System begins racing northeast by late Monday night. Nearly the entire state of Wisconsin is under at least a slight risk of severe weather on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The main system races northeast. Some residual storm activity possible across the Mississippi River Valley, Great Lakes, and Southern Plains. Tornado potential on Tuesday is low. By Wednesday, organized severe weather mostly ends and we return to a pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Northeast through the southern plains. Now, here is something that a lot of people overlook during these major storm setups. The heat is coming, too. And if you love summer, this next stretch is going to make you very happy with a twist. While all of this severe weather is happening across the central part of the country, temperatures are going to be running above average for nearly the entire continental United States during the same period. The only exception is the far northern plains, where temperatures may stay a bit below average. But for most of the country, this is going to feel like the official start of summer. Phoenix is already at 86° today. Death Valley, the hottest place on Earth, is sitting at 91°. Salt Lake City at 81°, Dallas at 77°, Miami at 84°. And here is the twist I want you to think about. Above average temperatures are actually one of the key ingredients fueling this dangerous storm setup. The warmer the air ahead of the cold front, the more atmospheric instability you have. And the more instability means bigger, stronger thunderstorms. So the beautiful warm weather and the dangerous storm threat are directly linked. One creates the other. Now, I want to make sure I have covered every major region and given you specific actionable information. For listeners in the Great Lakes region, pay close attention Sunday night and Monday.

[00:41:01]The storm system will be accelerating northeast by that point, and the combination of strong low-level winds and instability could produce some very significant weather across Michigan, northern Indiana, and northern Ohio on Monday afternoon and evening. Detroit at 52° today. Detroit needs to watch Monday afternoon and evening carefully. Grand Rapids at 45°. Grand Rapids is on the edge of the threat zone Monday. Lancing at 45°, Ann Arbor at 48°, Toledo at 57°, Toledo could be in the path of Monday evening storms. For listeners in the Tennessee Valley and deep south, Nashville at 72° today, could see some fringe storm activity Sunday into Monday evening as the complex pushes east.

[00:41:41]Knoxville at 68°, Chattanooga at 70°, Huntsville at 70°, Birmingham at 73°, Montgomery at 72 degrees, Mobile at 73°.

[00:41:52]These southeastern cities are largely away from the core of the event, but should monitor Tuesday for possible activity for everyone along the Gulf Coast. New Orleans at 73° today looks quiet through the weekend. Baton Rouge at 79°, Beluxy at 70°, Gulfport at 72°, Pensacola at 72°, Mobile at 73°. The Gulf Coast is mostly watching from the sidelines this week. For the central Appalachian region, Lexington, Kentucky at 70° today, Louisville at 72°. These cities sit on the eastern fringe and could see some storm activity Sunday into Monday, but are not in the core threat zone. Let me now address some of the smaller communities across the central plains that I have not specifically called out yet because I know many of you live in these areas. In Kansas, Manhattan at 70° today is in the primary severe weather zone Thursday, Friday, and the weekend. Salina at 70°, Dodge City at 70°, Garden City at 64°, liberal at sunny and mild currently.

[00:42:51]Hayes at 70°, Colby area is in the marginal to slight risk zone multiple days this week. Hutchinson at 73° is right in the Thursday hail corridor.

[00:43:01]Junction City at 72°, Emporia at 72°, Pittsburgh, Kansas at 72° in Oklahoma, Enid at 75° today. Still Water at 75°, Muscogee at 75°, Mallister at 75°, Ardmore area south of Oklahoma City, Lton at 75°. All facing elevated risk from Thursday through Monday. Hugo at 63 degrees. Duncan at 75 degrees. Shaunie at 70°. These Oklahoma communities are in the thick of it all week. In Nebraska, Carney at 70° today, Grand Island at 45°. Unusually cold there right now, but it will warm dramatically by the weekend. North Plaid at 70°, Scotsluff at 72°, Fairberry at 75°, sunny today. These Nebraska cities face a real severe weather threat Thursday through Sunday. In South Dakota, Sou Falls at 64 degrees, Yankton at 66 degrees, sunny today, Hiron, Aberdine at 63 degrees, Mitchell area in central South Dakota. These communities face a marginal risk Saturday and Sunday. In Missouri, Joplain at 72° today sits right in the Friday through Monday threat corridor. Springfield at 70°, Columbia at 66 degrees, Jefferson City at 70°, Hannibal at 64 degrees, Sadelia at 70°, Branson at 73°, Cape Gerardo nearby at 73°, area in Iowa, Waterlue at 61° today, Cedar Rapids at 59°, Iowa City at 61°, Davenport at 61°, Ames at 63°, Mason City at 59°, Debuke at 57°, Council Bluffs at 68°, Berling ington, Iowa at 66°. These Iowa cities are all in the primary threat zone for Saturday through Monday. Now, I want to spend just a moment talking about preparedness. Not to alarm you, but because I genuinely care about the communities that watch this channel, and I want you to be ready. Here is a simple five-step checklist for anyone living in the Thursday through Monday severe weather zone. One, download a reliable weather app and turn on severe weather alerts. The National Weather Service issues tornado warnings with lead times typically of 10 to 30 minutes. Every minute of advance warning matters. Two, know your shelter location. In a home, the safest place during a tornado is the lowest floor, an interior room away from windows. A bathroom or closet near the center of the house is ideal. In a mobile home, you need to leave and go to a sturdy structure. Mobile homes provide zero protection from tornadoes. Three, charge your devices. If the power goes out, a charged phone with weather alerts could save your life. Four, prepare a basic emergency kit. Water, non-p perishable food, flashlight, first aid supplies, extra medications. You do not need much, but having it ready means one less thing to think about if a tornado warning is issued. Five, make a plan with your family. Where will everyone go? How will you communicate if cell service is disrupted? This conversation takes 5 minutes and could be the most important 5 minutes of your week. And now I want to address something that I know some of you are thinking. You have seen severe weather forecasts before that ended up being nothing. The storms missed. The tornado never came. You drove for an hour to shelter and went back home to find everything perfectly fine. I understand that false alarms are frustrating. But here is what I want you to understand about this particular setup. This is not a marginal borderline event that could easily fizzle out. The ingredients for severe weather this weekend are robust. The atmospheric instability is enormous. The wind shear is going to be significant. The moisture return from the Gulf is deep and wellestablished. Multiple independent forecast models are in agreement about the broad scope of this event. That level of model agreement for an event 5 days out is actually unusual and it tells forecasters that this is not going to fizzle. The uncertainty is not whether this event happens. The uncertainty is exactly where within the large threat zone the worst of the weather sets up and that is a crucial distinction. Let me close with the big picture for the weeks ahead because this event is not isolated. According to the long range forecast tools, the end of May is shaping up to be very active. The pattern that is driving this week's storms is not a one-time anomaly. It reflects a broader atmospheric pattern that is going to keep generating severe weather opportunities across the central United States for at least the next 2 weeks. If you live in Tornado Alley, the Southern Plains, the Midwest, or anywhere from Texas to the Great Lakes, May is always the most active month for severe weather in the United States.

[00:47:24]This year is shaping up to be an especially active May. Think about this.

[00:47:28]The storms developing this weekend are being fed by cold Arctic air from Canada, colliding with some of the warmest and most humid air masses of the entire spring season. Those conditions represent a kind of atmospheric energy that is genuinely extraordinary.

[00:47:44]Forecasters are not panicking, but they are paying very close attention. Now, before I let you go, I promised you a teaser for what is coming up next in our coverage. Over the next 24 hours, the forecast models are going to update with newer, higher resolution data for the Saturday through Monday event. That means by tomorrow's video, we are going to have a much clearer picture of exactly which counties face the highest tornado risk, exactly which time windows are most dangerous, and what cities could be looking at a moderate risk or even possibly a high risk of severe weather. That upgrade potential is real, and it is something I am going to be watching extremely closely tonight.

[00:48:26]Tomorrow's video is going to feature the highest resolution storm track analysis we can provide with specific tornado risk corridors mapped out for Sunday and Monday. If you are in the central plains or Midwest and you want to know exactly when your local area faces the highest risk minuteby minute, tomorrow's video is one you absolutely cannot miss.

[00:48:49]Subscribe right now if you are not already subscribed and hit that notification bell so you do not miss tomorrow's update. This is a rapidly evolving forecast and things can change quickly. Every new model run brings better information. And one more time, I want to ask you to drop a comment below with your city and state. Tell me where you are. I want to make sure your community gets addressed in tomorrow's updated forecast. Thousands of people just like you are watching this right now from Witchah, from Minneapolis, from Kansas City, from De Moine, from Milwaukee, from Dallas, from Oklahoma City, and from hundreds of smaller communities across the country. Your comment helps me make sure this forecast reaches the people who need it most. We are heading into one of the most active stretches of weather this country has seen so far in May. Stay weather aare.

[00:49:41]Know your shelter plan. Keep your devices charged and stay with us for daily updates as this major event unfolds. The atmosphere does not give us much warning, but this time we have it and right now is the time to act. Thank you so much for being here. The weather is about to get very real and we will be with you every single step of the way.

[00:50:02]Now, let me go even deeper on the science of what is happening this week.

[00:50:06]Because understanding the why behind the forecast is what separates people who are truly prepared from people who are caught off guard. When meteorologists look at a severe weather setup, they are evaluating several key ingredients simultaneously. Think of each ingredient as a dial that can be turned up or turned down. Right now, multiple dials are being turned up at the same time, and that is what makes this week so significant. The first dial is moisture.

[00:50:33]Moisture is measured in terms of dupoint temperatures. Anything above 55° F and you start getting serious thunderstorm potential. Above 60° storms can become severe. Above 65° and you are in the zone for potentially violent supercell thunderstorms capable of producing large tornadoes. This weekend, due points across the southern plains and Midwest are forecast to climb into the low to mid70s. That is extraordinarily high moisture content for midmay. It is the kind of moisture that fuels the biggest storms of the year. The second dial is instability. Meteorologists measure this using a value called cape, which stands for convective available potential energy. Think of it as storm fuel.

[00:51:20]Higher cape means storms can grow taller, faster, and more violently. On Sunday and Monday, cape values across the central plains are forecast to exceed 3,000 jewels per kilogram in some areas. To put that in perspective, you only need 1,000 jewels per kilogram for severe thunderstorms. 3,000 jewels means incredibly powerful updrafts, baseball and softballsized hail, and extreme wind potential. The third dial is the low-level jet, which I described earlier. The fourth is wind shear, meaning how much the wind changes direction and speed as you go up in altitude. And the fifth ingredient is a trigger, meaning something that actually kicks off storm development. This weekend, a deepening surface low pressure system provides that trigger in a very favorable position. All five dials are going to be maxed out simultaneously on Sunday and Monday across parts of the central plains. That is genuinely rare. Most major tornado outbreaks in American history have had exactly this configuration. Now, I want to go through some specific smaller cities and towns that I know a lot of you have been asking about because weather forecasts on television and even online tend to focus on major metros and leave smaller communities in the dark.

[00:52:37]in Kansas. Let me talk about Pratt, Kansas. Pratt sits in South Central Kansas and is directly in the Thursday and Friday storm corridor. Any afternoon supercell that develops in that area will be moving toward Pratt. Be ready Thursday afternoon and again Friday.

[00:52:53]Liberal Kansas in the far southwest corner is in a marginal to slight risk zone through the weekend. Colby, Kansas along Interstate 70 is watching all week. Goodland, Kansas, near the Colorado border faces an elevated hail risk Thursday. Osage city in east central Kansas. Pittsburgh in southeastern Kansas at 72 degrees today, sunny, faces real threats Friday through Sunday. In Oklahoma, let me talk about Woodward in northwest Oklahoma, which sits right in the path of historic tornado tracks. Woodward faces a significant threat Saturday into Sunday.

[00:53:29]Enid at 75° today. Panka City in north central Oklahoma, Bartlesville in northeastern Oklahoma. These communities are in the primary threat zone from Saturday through Monday. Ardmore in southern Oklahoma faces a threat Sunday and Monday. Chicasha southwest of Oklahoma City. These smaller communities sometimes get overlooked, but they face real risk this weekend. In Nebraska, Kernney sits in the central part of the state at 70° today. Karnney is squarely in the Thursday through Sunday severe weather corridor. Beatatric in southeastern Nebraska, Norfolk in northeast Nebraska, Columbus, Nebraska.

[00:54:08]These cities face elevated hail and wind threats Thursday through Saturday. In Iowa, Sous City at 48° today. Unusually cool right now, but it will be in the thick of severe weather by Saturday.

[00:54:21]Storm Lake, Carol, Spencer. These northwest Iowa communities face real threats Saturday and Sunday.

[00:54:28]Marshalltown in central Iowa. Newton east of De Moine. A Tumba in southeast Iowa. Burlington along the Mississippi River. These Iowa communities all need to be in weather mode this weekend. In Missouri, Popppler Bluff in the Bootill region at 73° today. Sunny. Popppler Bluff could see significant storm activity Monday evening. Sadelia at 70°, Kirksville in northern Missouri, Mville in northwest Missouri at 72 degrees, Chilikathy in north central Missouri.

[00:54:59]These smaller Missouri communities are in the Friday through Monday corridor.

[00:55:03]Now, I want to give you some context about what makes Sunday potentially reach outbreak status because the word outbreak is used loosely sometimes and I want you to understand what it actually means. A severe weather outbreak in official meteorological terms is defined as 10 or more tornadoes occurring from the same synoptic weather system over a geographic area. That is 10 tornadoes, not necessarily all at the same time, but within the same event. The Great Plains and Midwest average about three to four true outbreaks per year, and most of them occur in April and May.

[00:55:37]What the models are suggesting for Sunday and Monday is that the ingredients are present for an event that could produce doubledigit tornadoes over a 24 to 48 hour period. That is not guaranteed. Tornadoes are notoriously difficult to forecast at the individual storm level, but the environment is favorable enough that forecasters are taking this very seriously. Let me also give you some historical context for why this particular storm track is so dangerous. The corridor from Oklahoma City through Witchah, Kansas City, De Moine, and up toward the Twin Cities is sometimes called Tornado Alley's Northern Extension. It is a path that significant tornado outbreaks have followed many times before. Some of the deadliest tornado events in American history have tracked along this exact corridor. That does not mean Sunday will be historic, but it means the geographic setup is one that demands respect and preparation. Now, let me make sure I have thoroughly covered the western half of the country because there are a lot of viewers there and even though severe weather is not their concern this week, they deserve a complete weather picture.

[00:56:41]In the mountain west, temperatures are running warm and the weather pattern is stable. Teluride, Colorado at 66° today, sunny. Aspen at 63°, sunny. Breenidge at 50° sunny. Steamboat Springs area nearby. Veil and the ski resort communities are seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Durango at 64° sunny. Grand Junction at 72°. Moab, Utah at 73° sunny. St. George, Utah at 82° sunny and very warm. Canab, Utah at 82°. These southwestern Utah cities are seeing early summer heat. In the desert southwest, the heat is already building rapidly. Yuma, Arizona at 79 degrees.

[00:57:26]Bullhead City at 79 degrees sunny.

[00:57:29]Needles, California at 82 degrees sunny.

[00:57:32]Lake Havsu area at similar temperatures.

[00:57:34]Death Valley today at 91° in Fahrenheit.

[00:57:37]The hottest place in the nation today.

[00:57:39]Palm Springs at 75° sunny. In India at 79°, the Coachella Valley is heating up quickly. For those of you in the Pacific Northwest who have been watching this event from a distance, here is your complete picture. Seattle at 54 degrees, cloudy. The morning cloud cover is typical for midmay in the Puet Sound.

[00:57:57]Temperatures will warm to the upper 50s to low 60s this afternoon under clearing skies. Portland at 54°, Eugene at 52°, Medford at 54°, Bend at 48°, Spokane at 63°. All of these cities will enjoy a fairly quiet week. Some rain is possible Thursday and Friday for the coast and western valleys, but nothing severe.

[00:58:18]Eastern Washington and Oregon may see a few strong thunderstorms by the weekend as the storm system sends energy waves westward, but the severe weather threat is very low west of the Rockies.

[00:58:28]Northern California and the Bay Area can expect continued marine layer conditions through the week. San Francisco at 55° today with low clouds. Oakland at 55°, San Jose at 57° with scattered clouds.

[00:58:42]Berkeley at 55 degrees, PaloAlto at 57 degrees, Pleasanton at 57 degrees, conquered at 61 degrees. The Bay Area afternoon highs this week will be in the upper 50s to mid60s under partly cloudy skies. Very comfortable, but no severe weather whatsoever. In the Central Valley, Sacramento at 59° today, sunny.

[00:59:02]Stockton at 63°, Modesto at 63°, Fresno at 63°, Viceelia at 61°, Bakersfield at 64°. These cities will warm into the 70s and possibly low 80s by the weekend as high pressure builds. No weather concerns. Let me now go back and give you one of the most important pieces of information in this entire forecast. The exact expected warning lead times for Sunday's event. When a tornado watch is issued by the Storm Prediction Center, it means that conditions are favorable for tornado development in the watch area. A watch can cover a large multi-state region. The average tornado watch is issued between 2 and 4 hours before the most intense storm activity.

[00:59:42]When a tornado warning is issued by your local National Weather Service office, it means a tornado has either been confirmed on the ground or indicated by radar. The average lead time between a tornado warning and tornado impact is about 13 minutes. That is 13 minutes from warning to potential impact. 13 minutes does not sound like much, but 13 minutes if you know your shelter location and you have already reviewed your plan is actually enough time to get to safety. The key word is already. You need to have already decided where you are going. You need to already know the fastest path from wherever you are at home, at work, at a restaurant, at a store. You need to have already made sure the people in your household know the plan for Sunday and Monday. Given the expected storm coverage, it is entirely possible that multiple tornado warnings are issued across a very wide area in rapid succession. Forecasters sometimes call this a high-end scenario when multiple supercells are simultaneously producing or threatening tornadoes across several counties.

[01:00:40]Keeping track of which warnings apply to your specific location becomes critically important. That is when having a Noah weather radio or a reliable weather app with precise location tracking becomes invaluable. I also want to take a moment to address a specific concern about nighttime tornadoes because Sunday night into Monday morning carries that risk.

[01:00:59]Nighttime tornadoes are statistically more deadly than daytime tornadoes even when they are smaller and weaker. The reason is simple. You cannot see them coming. No visual confirmation, no landmarks to judge distance, no visual rotation you can spot with your own eyes. You are completely dependent on electronic alerts. This is why if you are in the severe weather zone on Sunday night, I strongly encourage you to keep your phone on. Keep the volume up. Do not put it on silent and consider setting up a batterypowered weather radio that will sound an alarm if a warning is issued for your county.

[01:01:31]Counties in the severe weather zone for Sunday night include much of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. If you are in these areas and you go to bed Sunday night without a weather alerting system, you are taking an unnecessary risk. Now, let me close the loop on one more piece of the forecast that I want to make sure you understand completely.

[01:01:49]The Tuesday aftermath. After Sunday's and Monday's main events, the storm system does not just disappear. It races northeastward into Canada and the Great Lakes region, but it leaves a trail of moisture and residual instability behind it. By Tuesday, we could see additional severe weather, though much less organized than the weekend, across the Mississippi River Valley, the Ohio Valley, and into parts of the Great Lakes. Cities watching Tuesday include Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Louisville, Nashville, and potentially Cincinnati. The tornado risk Tuesday is low, but damaging winds and large hail are possible in any storm that develops. Think of Tuesday as the cleanup round after the main event. By Wednesday, things calm down across most of the country. The storm system has exited. The cold front has pushed through and temperatures will actually drop noticeably across the Great Plains and Midwest behind the system. Kansas City, for example, which is at 70° today, could be running 15 to 20° cooler by Wednesday as cooler, drier air filters in from Canada. that is actually going to feel refreshing after the intense humidity of the weekend. Let me now give you one final comprehensive city listing so that no community is left wondering. For the Texas Hill Country and Central Texas, Abalene at 81° today, sunny Waco at 79°, Temple at 79°, Colleen at 79°, Lampasses at 79°, San Angelo at 79°. These central Texas communities face elevated storm risks Sunday and Monday. Lach at 75 degrees, passing clouds today. Amarillo at 72 degrees, sunny. These panhandle cities face elevated hail and wind risks Thursday through Saturday. For northeast Texas, Tyler at 79°, sunny today. Long view at 77° sunny. Tex Arcana at 79°.

[01:03:48]Nakadocious at 77°. Kilgore at 77°, Sherman at 75°, Dennis at 75°. These East Texas communities carry elevated risks from Saturday through Monday for the Louisiana and Mississippi region.

[01:04:03]Shriveport at 77°, Monroe, Louisiana nearby, Jackson, Mississippi at 70°, sunny, Hattisburg at 70°, scattered clouds, Meridian, Mississippi nearby.

[01:04:16]These areas face marginal to slight risks Sunday into Monday for Georgia and the Carolas beyond what I mentioned earlier. Augusta at 72° partly sunny.

[01:04:26]Mon at 70° more clouds than sun.

[01:04:29]Savannah at 75° broken clouds. These Georgia cities are east of the main threat zone but should monitor Tuesday.

[01:04:37]Columbia, South Carolina at 72 degrees.

[01:04:40]Florence, South Carolina at 72 degrees.

[01:04:42]Greenville, South Carolina at 66°, scattered clouds. These Carolina cities are well east of the primary severe weather zone for Tennessee beyond Nashville. Knoxville at 68°, Chattanooga at 70°, scattered clouds. Memphis at 75°, Jackson, Tennessee at 73°, Cookville at 66°, Clarksville at 72 degrees, Murphreey'sboro at 72 degrees.

[01:05:08]These Tennessee cities face fringe risks Sunday evening and Monday for Kentucky.

[01:05:13]Lexington at 70° sunny. Louisville at 72° sunny. Bowling Green at 70° partly sunny. Frankfurt at 70°. Paduca at 73° Owensboro at 70°. These Kentucky cities are on the eastern fringe and face possible activity Monday. And for the upper Midwest states beyond what I covered, Madison, Wisconsin at 57° today. Scattered clouds. Oaklair, Wisconsin at 59°, sunny. Lacrosse at 59°. Shbboan at 48° partly sunny.

[01:05:46]Appleton at 48° partly sunny. Green Bay at 46° overcast. Wasaw at 48° overcast.

[01:05:55]All of Wisconsin needs to be watching Sunday through Monday closely. For Minnesota, St. Cloud at 57° sunny today.

[01:06:03]Brainer at 59° sunny. Mano at 59° sunny.

[01:06:08]Morehead at 61°, Hibbing Iron Range area at 57° or cooler. Bamiji at 59° sunny.

[01:06:17]International Falls at 52°. Passing clouds. These Minnesota communities all face the enhanced tornado risk Sunday afternoon. Final word. This forecast is accurate as of Wednesday morning and will change. Weather is a dynamic evolving system. Every new model run, every new observation, every new data point from weather balloons sent up twice daily across the country adds to our picture. Tomorrow morning, the picture will be sharper. Tomorrow evening, it will be sharper still. By Saturday morning, the forecast confidence for Sunday and Monday will be very high. And we will be able to tell you not just which states, but which specific counties face the greatest tornado risk. Stay connected. Come back tomorrow. This story is not over. It is just getting started. And for millions of Americans, from Texas to Minnesota, the most important weather days of this entire spring season are still ahead. I will be here every single day until this event is complete. Because when the atmosphere is this active, you deserve the most up-to-date, complete, and trustworthy forecast available. Stay safe, stay smart, and remember the most powerful tool