Weekly Rainfall outlook 18.5.2026

Ajouté : 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]All right, so I'm only going to go out to the 24th, which is next sun this Sunday coming just due to that's when the end of this weather period ends. So the long range forecast has from the 15th to the 22nd and the wet wettest period should be the 18th to the 22nd. So we should see the peak of any sort of severe weather in the next few days through through the 22nd and that'll be likely associated with any low that forms through eastern New South Wales and east coast wide potential heavy rainfall on the east coast. And that's what this signal here this purple banding which brings you know 100 plus mills along the coast.

[00:00:33]We'll probably say 50 to 100 along the the coastal ranges through parts of the northwest slopes. Sorry, not northwest slopes, northern tablelands down towards the hunter at this stage. So this is the UK met.

[00:00:46]This is the accumulated precept just so we can look for um trending outcomes and those distribution zones. Otherwise, we'll go to the daily model which we'll just use EC to to see how this plays out over the next few days.

[00:00:59]So if you look at the distribution comparison, if we go this is the the UK met. This is the access Australian model.

[00:01:07]This is the ECMWF and this is the GFS.

[00:01:10]You can see they're all just about identical apart from some small details through you know southern Queensland through central interior and obviously the northwest. The signal in the northwest again, I don't think it's going to form until close to the 27th because this should be the next signal that that aligns with the next front that moves through western Australia including the southwest of western Australia that brings the next cloud band through. So we might see something spawning up here in the next few days, but I don't think we'll see anything come out of it in terms of moving well into the interior until 27th onwards. So just be mindful that I know we've we've got a few followers up here through the Kimberley down towards the Pilbara and then we have a lot of followers again through this northeast New South Wales who need these systems to come in on this more northerly track.

[00:01:55]Those who've done those strategy calls over the last few months and we've discussed this about the the angle that these systems come in on is is determines where the rainfall comes. So, obviously, when the system comes in north of the Pilbara, south of the the Kimberley, we get that 45° angle it comes right down through northeast New South Wales, southeast Queensland. So, that's why we see rainfall moving right up as far north as it is at the moment.

[00:02:16]Whereas, if we get the cloud bands coming in through uh the Gascoyne, generally the rainfall band comes in through southern South Australia, uh Riverina, and sort of misses out on northern New South Wales. So, this pattern through the south will be what sort of happens from July onwards outside of one event.

[00:02:31]And this pattern in the north is what should happen through to the end of June and then the major system in July, which is around the 17th, just for example.

[00:02:38]So, what we take away from this is pretty much there is a lot of similarities here in terms of rainfall and distribution. We're looking at widespread anywhere from five, which is the the light blue, or the dark blue here, uh through to 30 plus, which is the orange. Uh the reds are closer to 40 uh 50. The purples are up near 100 mil. So, you can see that that that is very similar across the models uh in terms of distribution. So, pretty much from northwest New South Wales, the Channel Country down through the Eastern Riverina, Central Victoria, east of the coast, including parts of the Maranoa, down southeast Queensland is is where the rainfall should occur and across most of Tasmania from today through to Sunday. Although, this will probably finish around probably closer to the 22nd. So, yeah. So, probably by Friday we're looking at the end of this. So, that's the same with the UK Met, Channel Country, uh Eastern Riverina, uh parts of Central Victoria, then right through Eastern New South Wales, Southern Queensland.

[00:03:35]And again, yeah, that's the same through the the other models. So, that's the ECMWF. It brings it a little bit further north. I'll probably be a bit more cautious on that one, but generally through these southern parts of Queensland, good agreement. And the GFS is the same as well. So, good good rainfall signals for the Darling Downs, northwest slopes and plains, northern tablelands, in New South Wales where there's some drought anomalies.

[00:03:55]Just be warned, while this looks amazing, um if you go to the satellite imagery, you're still going to be mindful of how the rainfall is actually falling on the ground. Once this loads, um and you'll see that it's it's not blanket rainfall. Although the accumulated falls over a few days will show a bit more distribution, you'll see that it's coming in in these these bands where we're getting uh you know, like lines of rain. So here we've got this this line of rain here.

[00:04:23]We go back 24 hours, you'll see it's like a line of rain here. And and these lighter falls come in these So it goes like a heavy band, a light band, a heavy band. Just use that sort of mentality that it's it's not just going to be blanket 50 mils across three districts. There'll be patches of 50, patches of 10, patches of five, and so on and so forth. But generally the spread is is showing that there's potential for for 30 to 50 plus uh where those stronger bands occur. So very good to see. If you look at how this plays out on day by day, so this is today by 10:00 p.m. We have uh the castle trough starting to form.

[00:04:59]So we've got that strong high pressure system over New Zealand.

[00:05:02]Massive easterlies coming in, so plenty of moisture. You know, these these are coming from right out you know, these islands out here near uh Hawaii in the the central Pacific.

[00:05:12]You know, not much further away back over here at um South America. So nearly 2/3 of the Pacific Ocean is is is fetching moisture bringing it into the east coast of Australia and combining with this this northwesterly that's coming in from out near India that we've been talking about the last few days. So there's plenty of moisture there, there's plenty of potential.

[00:05:32]Uh had this been summertime, this would this would produce significant rainfall across large parts of the country. The only limiting factor here is is the temperature's cooled off a bit and we don't quite have the instability in the atmosphere that we would do in summertime, but with that we've got the low pressure system. There's a little bit of an embedded low start to form through northern New South Wales, southeast Queensland.

[00:05:53]That'll help enhance some sort of some lift and instability, so we'll see those higher heavier pockets of falls. On the backside of that low, we're still getting rainfall through northwest Queen New South northwest New South Wales, southwest Queensland, and the tail end of this trough cloud band pushing right up through to the Kimberley will produce patchy showers and storms throughout the day today.

[00:06:15]Uh moving into Tuesday, so into 19th, so I'm moving into that high energy period now from the 18th through the 22nd. You'll see that this is where we see the most severe weather potential. Anyway, from today into tomorrow from parts of of eastern New South Wales. So, I'm going to zoom in on this and we'll just go through this a little bit slower.

[00:06:34]We'll see that that low does become moving quite quickly from tonight moving from, you know, out near Burke towards the New South Wales coast within just a few hours, so it's moving quite quickly this system. Now, as it moves offshore, we get that low pressure system and deep trough move right down the coast.

[00:06:49]If we zoom in a little bit closer, we can see the heaviest falls should be mostly from the the northern rivers south to the mid north coast tapering off by around the Hunter down towards Newcastle, so that Bulahdelah zone.

[00:07:03]Uh we're looking at rainfall pushing through there, and then that should intensify over tomorrow morning. So, this is early hours of tomorrow.

[00:07:10]And throughout the day, we'll see that system really mature, so we'll see widespread rainfall right through eastern pretty much central and eastern New South Wales, so central west, eastern Riverina, southwest slopes, southern tablelands, east Gippsland.

[00:07:23]Uh Illawarra right up through the Sydney metro, um parts of the Illawarra coast. So, there's a few little patches here that look like they're not going to get anything, but safe to say that there'll be accumulated rainfall that sort of fills in these areas, but right in through the Hunter, mid north, northwest slopes and plains and whatnot, we should see 10 to 30 comfortably.

[00:07:42]Uh that will be will be likely heavier falls pushing up around that 50 mil mark. And then that continues right through. So again, we zoom in on this to see how this plays out.

[00:07:51]By by Thursday the 21st.

[00:07:54]Right up through East Gippsland, Eastern Riverina, Eastern parts of the Lower Western, right through the Northwestern.

[00:08:00]The Channel Country, Maranoa, Darling Downs, right through Northeast New South Wales, comfortably 10 to 30. If you get less than that, you're in some sort of microclimate that I can't explain.

[00:08:13]But generally really good. So very very positive. Again, this system will be clearing out by Thursday the 21st or at by the 22nd.

[00:08:22]So within a day this system's moved offshore. We have a low pressure system heading out towards New Zealand. And then the Northwest we have this trough just lingering around the Kimberley.

[00:08:34]Moving into the latter part of the month. This is what I expect to move in through the interior from around the 27th.

[00:08:41]This has been on and off with the models that we see another frontal system come through in the next day or so for Southwest [clears throat] Western Australia.

[00:08:51]There is a There's a bit of variability on that and especially this Northwest cloud band. I still think it's a little bit early. So if it comes in early, it'll be great. But let's just just be warned it's probably going to come in a little bit later.

[00:09:03]If we go through to the 25th, 27th, we see this next major system. This is the one we need to watch for around the 27th which will move in through the Southwest.

[00:09:12]The Northwestern again right through the guts of the country. So there's a lot to come. Stay tuned. Again, for us it's today and the next few days I want to get this November forecast finished and this model working.

[00:09:24]As soon as we get that working, we'll be upgrading the website, giving everyone new access levels, complete overhaul.

[00:09:31]This system we've been building literally for years is hopefully going to be some sort of release this week.

[00:09:36]Some sort of release this week, so stay tuned, very excited.