The TRUTH About This Storm

[00:00:00]We're going to start the show in an unusual place by taking a look down in the tropics and see what's going on down there. Why the tropics, you ask? Well, directly relates to our land cane that the models are still showing evidence of. Going to scoot across southern tier this week, bring some adverse conditions down there. We're going to get into all of that. Meanwhile, out west, continuing to see a heat wave build in the northwest and up and down the western seabboard as cooler and drier air infiltrates the nation's midsection from the Great Lakes through the Midwest. But don't let that fool you. We've got a big severe weather event on tap for Wednesday with all hazards possible.

[00:00:35]Plus, in the east, the models are still showing that bull jive solution, but I've got a look at the latest Euro weeklys and we're going to see if we find any relief from the drought in the east and heat out west. Got a jam-packed show today. By the way, if you know the answer to this question, what letter is missing from this word? Remember this?

[00:00:52]This is the little children's series, book series about the bears. If you know the answer, type it down in the comments. Let me know where you're watching from, too. Always good to hear from you down there. And uh so here's what we're going to do. We're going to get started here by taking a look down in the tropics. We got the smallest lemon lemon drop maybe in the western Gulf from the National Hurricane Center.

[00:01:11]A 30% chance of cyclone development.

[00:01:13]Remember that tropical wave we were watching last week? Well, it scooted in here to Mexico. Now, it's going to do a little bit of an about face, get into the western Gulf, and maybe even develop some tropical characteristics. a little tropical wave, tropical depression going before it heads on in toward Louisiana.

[00:01:28]All right, that's what's going to happen there. And I'm going to show you right here what is expected to happen with this in just a minute. This is a broader picture view of the tropics and I'm going to run this ahead. This is the European GFS showing the same thing. So, we're not really expecting very much, but I want you to see it. Some tropical wave activity moving from east to west across uh down here heading in toward uh from Africa over to South America. But we don't see any cyclones developing through the next two weeks. Why is that the case? Well, we've got a building El Nino. And look at all of these reds and yellows. This is wind shear. Hard to get tropical systems to develop when you have a lot of wind shear. Look at these red colors here racing through the Caribbean. Look at this. All this wind shear out here and up into the Atlantic.

[00:02:16]Big mid-level uh winds coming in through the United States from west east up here. lot of wind shear everywhere until you get way on out in time. This European ensemble, by the way, you start to see in the northern Gulf around the west coast of Florida, a little lesser shear values there. But everywhere else in our main development region, just loaded with wind shear. That's not good.

[00:02:39]What else is not good? Well, reds and oranges are not good. That means sinking motion. Okay, so for the next two weeks, watch over here in the Atlantic and in the Gulf. Here, I'll draw it here so it's easy to see. There it is. It's a world view, so sometimes kind of hard to see where we're looking at, but just look into that circle. Look at all of these oranges and reds just as we head on out through this week into the weekend. We'll finally get some neutral conditions by the time we get toward Friday and Saturday, but bam, oranges pop back up again, return. So, just unfavorable conditions persist in the Caribbean, out in the Atlantic, uh, as far as the eye can see. So, that is what is happening down in the tropics. Now, as a result of the first image that I showed you with that little lemon drop, we're going to see a little system work across southern tier. We're going to take a look at that right now. See who's going to be most affected and see where we might see rainfall amounts approaching a foot. My goodness. By the way, happy Monday to you. Welcome in to the channel. Glad you're here if you're new. I'm Jason, the meteorologist for the channel. And what you are looking at here is something I show about every day. It is the alert map. Gives you an idea of where the weather hazards are around the country. And you can see the colors showing up down here in south and eastern Texas and over toward Louisiana and southern Mississippi. These are flood watches. These are in effect the next couple of days. Going to find some heavy rain as tropical moisture surges in. We'll see how much rain in just a moment. Look here. Red flag warning.

[00:04:02]Don't burn anything out here in the plains. All right. It's going to be windy. It's dry. Gusts in the 30s and 40s. Adverse fire behavior can be expected. And from the Puet Sound to the Sanwaqin Valley, heat advisories are in place for temperatures running into the hundreds farther to the south, upper 90s farther to the north. All right, so it's going to be a hot day, continuing through the next couple of days out west. Surface map shows our frontal boundary clearing the eastern seabboard, bringing some showers, thunderstorms this morning from eastern Maine and out in toward Cape Cod and then back toward the eastern Carolinas down to Florida with flooding concerns as that frontal boundary hangs up across the south.

[00:04:37]that's going to play a role in that tropical impulse that's going to move in later this week and the European is laughably trying to create a hurricane over land. However, that has backed off a bit. We're going to take a look at that here in a second. But flooding concerns in these red shaded areas and then we can see thunderstorms and showers anywhere where you see the hatched areas. That's what's going on today. As we take a look the next three days, yeah, we've got a mar a moderate risk of flood where uh flood flooding and excessive rainfall where you see the red. So from basically southern Texas, Brownsville up to Corpus Christie near Galveastston today over in toward most of Louisiana, slight risk. And then over in toward Jackson, Mississippi, a moderate risk today. Those same areas under the gun tomorrow, just a little bit shunted to the south, but the expan the slight risk expands tongue tied this morning. The slight risk expands farther to the east and makes it all the way into Georgia. And then as we head in toward Wednesday, still got a moderate risk around the coastal sections near Galveastston and getting in here to the southern sections of Louisiana as well.

[00:05:36]And then a slight risk up into the southern Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley as a new frontal boundary makes its way in. An impulse moves through. Going to see a severe weather outbreak in this area potentially as we get on in toward midweek. Here is the precipitation animation as seen through the eyes of the European model. And we're looking at that rain just continuing to pile up down here in southern Texas on in toward southern and central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia through the week. So this is Monday, this is Tuesday, this is Wednesday, this is Thursday. And by Friday, and into Saturday, you can see rain making its way through the southeast. We need the rainfall over here, but you guys are getting a lot of it. And look how much rain we're talking about. The European is starting to show values of 9 to 10, even 12 inches of rain in spots down here. As you can see through the animation, the ensemble itself is actually showing a little less than that. We'll take a look at it uh as we get on in here and look at our maps. But this is the precipitable water animation. It shows you where the moisture content is highest in the atmosphere. And the brighter colors, especially the reds and the purples, mean very, very, very high moisture content. And that is why we have a flooding risk. Any impulse that comes along acts on that. It's going to be able to efficiently squeeze all that moisture out. And you can see where those values are the highest right here along the Gulf Coast states. And look at that purple blob that comes through.

[00:07:02]That's that little land cane that we're trying to get. And as we get toward the end of the run, you see another secondary push up into the plains.

[00:07:09]That's going to set the stage for severe weather as we work through the uh middle portion of the week. but a ton of tropical moisture surging across the south and we'll get a big return flow later on in the week uh as we approach Wednesday. All right, so that's what's happening with our moisture transport.

[00:07:26]Here's what the European is showing now.

[00:07:28]Yesterday it showed this system getting into uh eastern Texas and really bombing out. Well, now look what happens. We see that moisture. There it comes. By the time we get into Wednesday afternoon, it surges into eastern Texas. You see a little bit of rain associated with it and then a reflection of a low pressure begins to develop here across Mississippi, the southern or the lower Mississippi Valley. And then it swings on North Alabama through North Georgia.

[00:07:52]Not nearly as strong today, in the hundreds as opposed to the 980s in terms of the pressure. And then it shoots rain into South Carolina. Some heavy rain too into North Carolina even where we need it badly. And there it goes on out to sea. All right. So that's what the European is showing. And the reason it's showing this thing develop over land is not because it's trying to develop a hurricane now. It was trying to do that yesterday which was erroneous. But there is some validity what it's showing in terms of bringing in that 850 mibar spin. This is spin about a mile up off the ground. You can see these bright little packet of colors in eastern Texas as we get on in toward Thursday morning.

[00:08:28]And then that spin moves through Louisiana into northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. and it remains compact and it's working right along that frontal boundary. Remember those reds and purples those are moisture content that moisture content and it's colllocated with a stalled frontal boundary. And as this works along that boundary it will continue to spin and remain intact and could produce a surface low that begins to sort of be a hybrid between a uh tropical type car a system with some tropical characteristics as well as sort of mid- latatitude characteristics. All right.

[00:09:04]So, not expecting a big strong tropical cyclone or hurricane with lots of winds to come across the south, but certainly some heavy rain as this tropical moisture gets integrated into the flow in the southeast and it's gone by the weekend. This is the European Ensemble.

[00:09:20]So, we'll just show this to see if it agrees. And look at this. Remember this, we we look at this in hurricane season.

[00:09:26]These are just the different members of the European Ensemble uh suite, which are 51 members. and we'll see how many L's pop up here. That gives us a signal for how much agreement we have with the operational. So, we see an L popping up there. One member actually wants to develop a hurricane in the Gulf. I doubt that's going to happen because there's only one member showing that and there's not a lot of support for it. Well, it gets in Louisiana and we start to see a bunch of little L's pop up here. So, there is some support for what the European is showing. Maybe at the end of the day, we have 15 or so different L's.

[00:09:56]Maybe 15 to 20 out of 51. So, that's a pretty good percentage. So yeah, we'll probably see some little development across the south, but uh as far as a land cane goes. Doubt we're going to see that develop, but uh all of these continue to move in some form or fashion across the southern tier bring a heavy rain threat and then gets out of our hair by the weekend. Here is the European Ensemble mean rainfall depiction, okay, for the entire week all the way through Saturday evening. And we're seeing the biggest and and uh most intense footprint of rain from basically western and central Mississippi all the way down through south central Texas where we see 5 in in terms of the total precipitation output over that time period. All right, so there's a whole week that's going to take place, but we'll see big heavy rainfall certainly in this area. All right, so that's what's going on down here. If we take a look at a little bit of a farther east view, see that same footprint and extends onto the, you know, farther to the east. Not showing a ton in terms of the European ensemble mean here in Virginia, North Carolina or even upper South Carolina. Keeps the system predominantly a little farther to the south than the actual European model does, but certainly going to see some heavy rain here. Five and six inches on a mean is very impressive. So when we see those values in the European in the GFS showing 8 to 10, maybe even 12 inches, that's not out of the question with the tropical nature of this. So just because European ensemble mean showing those values doesn't mean it's not going to happen. But in any event, here's what the European's actually showing. Says a foot around uh just around Galveastston. Look at that. Maybe 16 ines or so. So and then 10 in up here through central Louisiana and toward Jackson, Mississippi. Again, we'll have to watch and see how this plays out through the week, but definitely going to see some heavy rain down here. So, be prepared for flooding conditions across southern Texas into much of Louisiana, the central and southern half of Mississippi and quite a bit of Alabama, too. Could see flooding as we head through the week. So, pay attention and stay on guard there, my friends. Now, we're going to take a look at how the long-term pattern is going to play out over the next week, two, three, and four. If this was a winter pattern, we would be waxing our sleds in the east.

[00:12:07]Look at this. This this is just textbook big time blocking up here across central and eastern Canada with a big trough here in the eastern United States. Some ridging, a little bit flat, but some ridging out here along the west coast pumping up the PNA. That is a good look for winter weather in the east.

[00:12:25]Unfortunately, we're about 6 months removed from where we need to be, maybe five months or so. But uh in any event, cooler and drier conditions working in across the north as to start our week held in place by this block. This trough is and the flow is kind of down here across the south. All right. How is that going to change over the next couple of weeks? Well, the trough will diminish in intensity over time ahead to the east as blocking weakens in Canada. we get sort of this zonal flow with a few short waves working across the central portion of the country, probably bringing some moisture and severe weather at times to parts of the central US and hopefully some rain in the east. But we reload the trough a bit as we head on out through the day 10, day 12 period. That's Friday the 26th. And we continue to see that reload and not as quite as intense as initially right now. But again, this European ensemble, so things kind of get smoothed out with time. But the big takeaway, still got blocking in Canada, troughing in the eastern half of the country. The GFS is a little bit more zonal, the GFS ensemble. So just to be fair, that's what it's showing. Either way, that's the flow pattern generally from west to east with a tendency for troughing in the east. So Great Lakes, Midwest, looking at probably not going to be a big heat wave building here.

[00:13:39]Probably going to be a little bit cooler up here than normal and at times working into the east. But your hot weather is going to continue to persist out west and unfortunately drier across the uh parts of the east that we looked at yesterday. This is the precipitation as we head through the week. Certainly your lion share. The rain is going to be across the south. Another little wave working in toward uh the uh northern plains as we get into Tuesday evening.

[00:14:02]And then as we get into Wednesday afternoon, there's our surface low moving in toward the Midwest up toward Canada. But it's going to bring a cold front with it. Some drier conditions behind that. But this is out ahead of this where we're going to find the severe weather threat here in the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley to uh end the day on Wednesday. Could talk about tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds possible. So we've got a kind of a severe weather threat and all hazards day setting up for wind. A big time wind shear. We're talking about 80 knot mid-level jet streak and then 50 knots of lowle flow. So a lot of wind energy, a lot of turning with height. Going to have moisture and instability on the rise. And you can kind of see that playing out here from uh central Missouri up through Illinois into southern Wisconsin over into Michigan and eventually northern Indiana and getting into Ohio. Probably going to see a line sweep through when it's all said and done bringing a severe wind threat.

[00:14:54]That's going to be the predominant threat. Strong tornadoes are going to be possible as well. Uh and then we'll see that little system work across the south. There's European showing that system moving across the south as we head through the balance of the work week. Some rain returning back to Texas as we get on in toward the weekend. So that's what we're looking at through the week. Told you we had a lot of data to show today, my friends. This is the European weekly for the next uh extended European. So they that runs out to four, five, six weeks out. And so we're looking at a 30-day anomaly or this precipitation anomaly where the rainfall is going to be above average over the next 30 days. And you can see that from the Great Lakes back to southern Texas.

[00:15:32]A lot of this is going to fall in the front of the period, but look at this right there. And uh unfortunately back here, central Virginia, you may do okay, but certainly North Carolina, South Carolina looking at a truckload of dry air. Same again in Florida, really not looking at much going on in Florida, too. And then out west in the Northwest, it is drier than normal. That is what the European Weeklys is seeing over the next 30 days. That takes us into mid July. Terms of the temperature anomaly, yeah, it's going to be pretty nice up into around the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley relative to normal. Big heat out west all the way into the central plains.

[00:16:07]Normal across the south until you get to the areas that have drought. Sort of a reinforcing mechanism. Drier conditions kind of heat up the atmosphere better.

[00:16:15]Warmer than normal, drier than normal.

[00:16:17]Reinforces itself. We need that tropical system to get in here and dump a lot of moisture and uh certainly change the flow pattern up so we can get more moisture back into the southeast. But this is what it looks like over the next 30 days according to the European weeklys. Now, these things aren't always accurate, so it's not set in stone, but it's something that's interesting to see. And when we start to see a signal for a pattern change, you'll see it show up in the weeklies. All right, there's our severe weather threat. Already an enhanced risk for Wednesday from northern Missouri, including St. Louis up here to Peoria, Springfield, central Illinois over in toward Indianapolis.

[00:16:46]And slight risk surrounds that and a marginal risk surrounds that. That is what we're looking at as we head on through the rest of the week. It's going to be a hot one, two winds. Looking at some gusty winds here in the plains today back through Colorado. friend Chatty Kitty probably see some windy conditions out here today. And as far as temperatures go over the next couple of days, just to give you an idea, definitely warm in the southeast, but not quite as warm as it was this weekend. The 90s show up here for sure.

[00:17:14]But the hot weather is really confined to the desert southwest and through the Sanwaqin Valley today with 60s and 70s prevailing up here in the Midwest down toward the southern plains. Same again tomorrow, warming back up into the plains a bit. Still hot in the desert southwest and across the west coast up and down the western seabboard. And then finally we get a little relief up into the northwest. Still hot in Sanwaqin Valley. That heat spreads into the plains by Wednesday and setting the stage for some warm weather and severe weather here in the nation's midsection that we saw before and warming back up along the east coast. That's what's happening as we head through the week, my friends. If you haven't, well, I got all the way to the end of the video and realized that I forgot to give you the answer to the missing letter question that I had before right here. Is that an E or an A? Well, the answer is, though you might not believe it, an A. It's the Bernstein bears. A lot of people remember this as the Bernsteeen or Bernstein bears, but it is actually the Bernstein bears. What you're experiencing if you think it's an E is the Mandela effect. And we can talk about that another time, but wanted to make sure that you knew that because a lot of people don't know it. And all right, now back to the end of the show, my friends. If you haven't done so, hit the subscribe button, like the content if you like it. And let me know if there's anything I can be in prayer about. I always want to support you.

[00:18:31]Appreciate all the support here. You guys are great and I appreciate uh all the new subscribers recently. Thank you for joining us. And certainly let me know if you have any questions. I will read and respond to all the comments and I'll get to yesterday's a little bit later this afternoon. In the meantime, stay sharp, chase hard, have a great afternoon. Tune back in for another video tomorrow. Take care, everybody.

[00:18:49]God bless.