Elon Confirms It's Happening. Major Warning To Tesla Investors

追加: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]This is a major warning to all Tesla stock investors. Pay close attention for the next few minutes. Otherwise, you will be caught off guard with Tesla stock potentially suddenly crashing and you thinking, "What the heck is happening?" Well, I'll explain what's happening. We will get to see the SpaceX IPO prospectus on Wednesday. And just now in this new interview, Elon Musk confirmed that the SpaceX IPO is happening pretty soon. So, it's basically official and it's happening very soon. What does that mean to us Tesla stock investors? A lot. Number one, how many Tesla stock investors will even want to invest in SpaceX? And if they do, how many of those will sell Tesla stock to buy SpaceX stock? I mean, how now some decent insight into what is likely to happen. Steven Mark Ryan is running a poll. Will you be investing in SpaceX? And a huge majority of them said, "Yes." Also, keep in mind that 12% said that they just want to see results.

[00:00:53]So, actually, this number is going to be higher because these three numbers are not going to add up to 100% even though they should if you want to measure everything accurately. So, it's over 60% of the people that follow Steven Mark Ryan on X who said, "Yes, I will invest in SpaceX." And I think largely that represents our Tesla stock community.

[00:01:15]Now, people that follow Steven Mark Ryan, I think they are certainly more dedicated Tesla stock investors and Elon Musk followers, but the trend is very clear that a lot of Tesla stock investors will absolutely want to invest in SpaceX. Only 12.6% of the people said, "No." And only 15.9% of the people here said, "Undecided."

[00:01:36]So, overwhelmingly, people are gravitating towards investing in SpaceX.

[00:01:42]And now, if you are planning to buy SpaceX shares, how will you pay for it?

[00:01:47]Sell Tesla stock, 13.9% of people said that. Sell many, including Tesla stock, said 5.6%. So, these two round up to almost 20%. Sell many, not Tesla stock.

[00:01:59]This is great for us Tesla stock investors 10.8% and use available cash 69%. Now, I think many will look at this poll and see that okay, it's only 13.9% of the people that are saying they will sell a Tesla stock and others will also sell Tesla stock but not just Tesla stock. So that rounds up to about 20%. Okay, so 20% of all Tesla stock investors selling some Tesla stock doesn't sound that bad. Now, keep in mind that probably the followers of of Alexandra are more dedicated to Elon and Tesla stock overall compared to just a regular retail investor or a fund manager. What does that mean? That means these people I think are more likely to sell Tesla stock. So the actual number, I think it's very plausible. I'm not saying this will definitely happen, but I think it's very plausible that the actual number of people selling Tesla stock could be noticeably higher than about 20%. Now, I'm definitely not saying that these 20% of people or more are going to sell all of their Tesla stock holdings. I really don't think that would be the case. I think that would be very very few people, but a lot of them could sell 50% of their Tesla stock to use that money to buy SpaceX.

[00:03:13]That sounds very plausible to me and I've been watching Steven Mark Ryan a little bit and you know what he says?

[00:03:19]How much he wants to invest in SpaceX?

[00:03:22]What what is like his close to ideal allocation between Tesla stock and SpaceX? 50/50. Now he outlines a few scenarios and it varies, but very very roughly speaking it's about 50/50. So Steven, I would think is perhaps in our Tesla stock community, he's perhaps the most dedicated or close to the most dedicated Tesla stock investor there is and his ideal allocation under certain circumstances is about 50/50 between SpaceX and Tesla stock. And actually from a long long long time ago, he would have invested a lot more money in SpaceX than in Tesla. So, if even Steven Mark Ryan is thinking like this, and definitely he will want to get his hands on SpaceX stock eventually, that certainly is something to think about for all of us Tesla stock investors. And that's why this is a critical warning to all Tesla stock investors. There is certainly a chance that a lot of people might be selling Tesla stock in the in the next 30-60 days. If you do see Tesla stock drop on some days, and there's like no good explanation, I think that is likely going to be the cause. Now, there is actually some good news for us Tesla stock investors, for those of us who want to keep our Tesla stock and ride out all of the ups and downs of Tesla stock that are going to come to us in the future. And that is Steven Mark Ryan said that he's not going to sell Tesla stock to buy SpaceX. So, that's all we want to hear. We We ideally want to hear that no one's selling any Tesla stock to buy SpaceX, that they're keeping all of their Tesla stock shares, and that of course is going to help.

[00:04:58]However, there is one more thing to really think about and consider, and that is So, typically, with people like Steven Mark Ryan, when they make more money, people that are invested in Tesla stock, all they do with that money, or largely, is buy more Tesla stock. And then they make money, they buy Tesla stock. They make money, they buy some real estate, they sell some real estate, they they refinance their real estate.

[00:05:20]They use that money to buy Tesla stock.

[00:05:23]Now, now that there is going to be SpaceX, what are they going to do? You might think, let's say if someone wants to have a 50/50 allocation between SpaceX and Tesla stock, that, okay, let's say someone makes $100,000, and they're going to put 50,000 into SpaceX and 50,000 into Tesla stock. Not quite right, because they want to have a 50/50 position in the end. So, if you, let's say, have right now a $4 million position in Tesla stock and a $0 position in SpaceX. How long is it going to take for you to build up to a $4 million position in SpaceX? That is going to take quite a while if you are not going to sell any Tesla stock. So, one thing that is going to happen is a lot of the Tesla stock investors that are not going to sell Tesla stock to buy SpaceX and this actually includes me in in that category as well. We are going to buy SpaceX with money that otherwise would have gone into Tesla stock. So, you might not see a sudden drop of Tesla stock in this instance if this becomes a material thing that starts to show up in the numbers. This could cause a few things. One, simply the stock when you would normally expect it to go up, it wouldn't go up as much because there's less people buying Tesla stock because a lot of that money is going to go to SpaceX. And then secondly, on days when Tesla stock will dip a lot up until now, you would have Tesla stock fanatics, which would include Steven Mark Ryan and for example Jason DeBolt, who like in Jason's case for example, when Tesla stock was under I think $200, he sold his house back in like 2022 December somewhere around that time, he he sold his house or financed it or did something like that. Some major move like that. And he put all of that money in Tesla stock. But going forward, that is probably a little bit less likely to happen now because some of that money could just go to SpaceX.

[00:07:18]But then there will also probably be people like me. So for me, I think largely I will not necessarily buy SpaceX only just blindly. What I will sometimes do is if Tesla stock drops like 50% suddenly or like in 2022 December at the end of December where we saw Tesla stock at $100 per share, it dropped down all the way from 400 in a period like that, I will just buy more Tesla stock, not more SpaceX even if my SpaceX allocation at that time will be relatively small compared to my Tesla holdings. Now, the total market capitalization of the US stock market is approximately 72 to 74 trillion, which accounts for over 42% of the total global equity market. And if Tesla stock and SpaceX roughly accounting for, let's call it 3 trillion if combined, these two companies alone actually take a somewhat significant portion of the whole stock market in the US. But, when you start looking at total wealth available to everyone in the US, you also have to count real estate and private companies and the number suddenly gets a lot larger. For example, just the US real estate market is estimated at roughly 71 trillion. But, I do want to say that SpaceX and Tesla combined alone, they actually do take a significant portion of the whole market in the US. But, if Tesla suddenly solves unsupervised FSD and we have robot taxis being deployed at mass scale and the Optimus robot starts doing things that can be used to make money and make everyone's lives easier, I think the stock is going to skyrocket and a lot of money is just going to flow into that.

[00:09:01]There's also the bond market, which is pretty big. So, there's a lot of money to flow from somewhere if the opportunity makes sense. I'm just saying there is going to be more pressure and perhaps even more volatility going forward with Tesla stock and we certainly have experienced a lot of volatility as Tesla stock investors.

[00:09:20]But, one positive thing that I see in all of this is that with Tesla and SpaceX likely eventually in the end being combined and merging, Elon Musk has made it extremely clear that he doesn't want to leave SpaceX basically ever because he doesn't to be fired ever. He removed that possibility with how SpaceX is structured as the IPO. And also with SpaceX and Tesla stock eventually emerging, I don't really care if some portion of the money and capital goes towards SpaceX but otherwise would have gone to Tesla. There's also a few other things to really note. One is that Elon Musk is not selling any SpaceX shares according to Elon Musk himself, which I would consider as a good source, but oh yeah, that's basically the best source that you can have. Although, let's not forget that Elon Musk before has said that he's done selling Tesla stock and then he sold more. But my interpretation of that was always that he was just done selling for that time being, not that he's not going to sell like a few months later again. So, this means a few things. Number one, and this is the most important one one for me personally, Elon Musk believes in SpaceX so much that despite having this huge attractive valuation for SpaceX, he's not selling any SpaceX stock at all. So, that's extremely bullish for any investor that wants to hold SpaceX stock long-term.

[00:10:53]And really I should start saying SpaceX AI because these two are one company now and the name has been changed. But number two, it also means the IPO will have so much demand and clearly there's so much demand for SpaceX stock. But the supply is going to be so restrained that a lot of people that would would have thought to buy SpaceX will look at that and think, "I don't know, man.

[00:11:19]Uh there's a lot of people that really want to get into the SpaceX stock, but the supply is artificially limited. I don't know. Maybe no to SpaceX stock for now. If it drops later, okay, I'm getting in then, but not at the IPO prices, not until there's more supply.

[00:11:37]So, I think that's what a lot of smart people are going to do and a lot of fund managers, but Ron Baron, he said he wants to buy like a billion dollars worth of SpaceX. Now, I think he he knows he wants to buy even more than that. It's excruciatingly clear that the demand for SpaceX stock is going to be off the roof and to the moon and then Mars. Now, what is that going to do to SpaceX stock prices specifically? I don't know. I have guesses, I have ideas, I have thoughts, but I I wouldn't want to make a firm firm prediction.

[00:12:12]However, I do predict this. I think in the long term SpaceX is going to turn out as insanely good investment even if you buy at IPO price and then later if it crashes, I think it will still be an amazing investment. But, the holding period for SpaceX could be also excruciatingly long. I mean, the the mission of SpaceX is to colonize Mars and expand consciousness into other stars and planets. So, here's one possible scenario of what could happen to the SpaceX IPO. If anyone is selling Tesla stock in an attempt to have a piece of SpaceX, it's a bad idea.

[00:12:49]There's actually this thing that you can already buy, although there's problems with it. I will go through this exact thing and explain to you why. Anyway, he continues, why? Well, it's going to be so oversubscribed that there will be likely very very very limited retail allowed or allocated shares. Also, even then be able to participate, you can say you you'd like 100 shares, but most only allocate significantly less than in this case likely two or three shares if lucky. Now, while you get your hopes up for a miracle to get in and getting your feelings hurt again, the only people that will make money off SpaceX will be those that got in a while ago in the private markets. Will it go up on the day of IPO? Likely. However, this guy predicts that it will go down faster than the Titanic. That's a big prediction. Then, while you sold your Tesla shares to get in, not only did you not get in, but you waited for the wash sale to pass, and now have to buy a higher again.

[00:13:47]Lose-lose.

[00:13:49]That's how markets work, says this guy.

[00:13:51]It's only a plausible possibility. I wouldn't say that this account has the highest authority on things like that, but certainly there are some decent points, and this guy does have a pretty high following. But, to all of you Tesla stock investors who are not selling Tesla stock to buy SpaceX stock, good morning, good afternoon, good evening.

[00:14:10]I'm happy to have you here. Okay, so here's the thing. This thing is right now trading at $213, which puts it at a valuation of about 2.5 trillion. So, that's higher than 1.5 trillion, but here's the thing. These aren't people actually buying shares of this thing.

[00:14:30]They're just people on hyper-liquid betting on the eventual IPO price.

[00:14:35]There's less than $30 total open interest so far, and even that figure is deceptively high because a trader with $1 margin can generate far more volume. Anyway, this thing functions as a perpetual futures contract, allowing bets on SpaceX's eventual IPO price rather than actual share ownership in the private company.

[00:14:58]Now, in terms of Tesla stock breaking out, Jim Munster made a prediction. He believes that Tesla stock is going to about $600 per share in the next a year and a half or two. And we also got a few more big news stories for us Tesla stock investors. Elon Musk just did an interview in Israel. He did it from Texas, though, so he called in, and the interview started at 2:00 2:00 Texas time where Elon was at the time. Elon said, "10 years from now, probably 90% of all distance driven will be driven by the AI in a self-driving car. It will be quite a niche thing in 10 years to actually be driving your own car. I already drives for 90% of the miles I travel," says Sawyer. There's actually a few ways to look at this prediction. One thing to understand is that there's about 1.5 billion vehicles in the whole world, and basically almost all of them are not Teslas. And cars are typically scrapped around 15 to 20 years of age. So, even if today we totally solve full self-driving, you still have 1.5 billion vehicles that are still going to keep going for, you know, still a decade or more. Now, one thing to keep in mind is that not all of these 1.5 billion vehicles are brand new. A lot of them are old vehicles. But, I'm just saying robot taxis could be solved tomorrow, full full self-driving could be safer than human driving, and a lot of miles will still be driven by humans. Just because, well, you you got a car, and it works, and it's fine, and you're already paying money for it. So, I can already hear some Tesla bear saying, "Oh, Elon Musk just said 90% of the miles will be driven by AI basically 10 years from now. So, that means that he doesn't think full self-driving is here or near or coming soon." No, no, no, no, no.

[00:16:51]That's not at all what he said. Watch what I just said, and then you'll understand. And here are the other key ideas from the interview. So, if it's the robot taxi already unsupervised in some Texas cities, full US rollout by end of 2026, he says. Aims for 10 times safer than human driving in 5 to 10 years. 90% of driving will be self-driving. Then, he also spent quite a bit of time talking about meaning of life, as in when human robots basically give you anything for basically free, what's going to be the meaning of life?

[00:17:22]But Elon was optimistic about that and thought that eventually we would come up with something. He didn't really see that as a major problem. Then on Starship V3, full rapid reusability this year, key to multi-planetary life like Moon, Mars, and beyond. And then Neuralink restores speech and movement for paralyzed blind sight implant later in 2026, even for those blind from birth. Calls it science miracles. What another thing that was interesting, and I'm just quoting here.

[00:17:53]I'm not making any statements based on my opinion. I'm just quoting here, okay?

[00:17:57]So, do do not confuse these two. In the interview, and this is basically a direct quote, these sorts of technologies were called Jesus-like technologies. That's not me saying it.

[00:18:08]Go watch the interview if you like. But I thought that was the most interesting part of the whole interview. Now also, there's some good news here. Steven Mark Ryan actually replied to this post from Alexander Mars, "If you're planning to buy SpaceX shares, how will you pay for it?" So, Steven explains that he's not selling Tesla stock because he's launching a new OnlyFans. Okay, back to serious news. In 2025, the semi-Tesla fleet achieved over 95% uptime with 75% of service visits completed in under 24 hours. For comparison, top diesel fleets achieve 90 to 95% with strong preventative maintenance. Lower for average reactive, that stands at 85 to 90%. But then there's another big difference. Electric powertrain slashes routine service visits. So, you have no oil, no DEF, no emission systems, etc. So, 75% of issues resolve in less than 24 hours and nearly half in less than 1 hour. So, all of that is significantly faster than typical diesel repairs. And then we got some breaking news. I'm recording this video, this just came out. The jury in the Elon Musk versus OpenAI trial has found Sam Altman, co-founder Greg Brockman, and OpenAI are not liable on all claims because they said Elon Musk waited too long to bring his lawsuit. So, what I'm hearing from this is that Elon Musk is right. Elon Musk is not wrong, but because he waited too long, the jury doesn't want to side with Elon, not because he's wrong, but because he waited too long. That's what I'm hearing from this. The jury said that Elon's claims were filed outside of the statute of limitations, deciding that he had 3 years to sue and he did not file on time. After the advisory jury found Altman and OpenAI not liable, the court led by the US District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers agreed with the determination and the case now has been thrown out. Now, if that is a valid reason to throw out the case, I have a question. Why on Earth would you even entertain the idea of this lawsuit even starting? If it's beyond the statute of limitation, why even allow it to start it? I'm looking at Elon's feed and he hasn't replied or posted anything about it. I'm pretty sure he will say something about this and I'm really curious what he is going to say.

[00:20:30]However, Elon Musk, according to Grok, can appeal the dismissal of his lawsuit against OpenAI, Sam Altman, and Greg Brockman. So, so far, as of this moment, Elon hasn't said anything, but Musk's lawyers immediately reserved the right to appeal after the verdict was just announced. He would have to file the appeal within 30 days. Now, interestingly, the judge gave a warning.

[00:20:55]She said a substantial amount of evidence was held to support the jury's finding and she was prepared to dismiss any appeal on the spot. My understanding is she wouldn't be the one really involved in the appeal fully, would she?

[00:21:11]And Grok confirms this. The judge but says she would throw out any appeal won't be deciding the appeal. Appeals from the district court for the Northern District of California go to the US Court of Appeals for the ninth circuit.

[00:21:26]A three-judge panel or sometimes this French expression is used which means in bench. She has zero power to throw out or dismiss Musk's appeal herself. So, her claims are absolutely not relevant here in terms of real power. However, her statement still carries weight for the following reasons. One, she controls the official record the appeals court will see. Secondly, Grok says that appeals on this issue are extremely hard to win. So, I'm curious what Elon Musk is going to say now. Having seen so far that it's been about maybe an hour since this new has been announced and Elon Musk having not said anything yet. Maybe Elon Musk is not really going to appeal. If it was definitely a yes for the appeal, I think he would have said something already.

[00:22:16]But, let's see. Elon Musk also announced this today. The Starship production pipeline is full and will complete roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year. So, if something goes wrong, it will not be a major setback, which is good unless the launch stand is destroyed. And then we got this FSD version which is coming out now and it has a live counter right on the main screen that shows how many miles you have driven on FSD since your last intervention.

[00:22:47]I love this idea. It's displayed right here. That's amazing. I think this will definitely reduce interventions for sure 100% because you just like that number to go up. But, there is definitely some criticism, and I think it's valid criticism. And uh Chuck says here, "This incentivizes not disengaging when it might be necessary. Keeping an intervention free streak going is not important. Driving safely is the most important thing." Now, the most common thing for me taking over is not that I think something is going to happen. And keep in mind, I was just in Texas, and I was driving Model Y on the latest stuff as D software. I don't think I had No, I didn't have V14.3.3, but the latest one before that one is what I had. Only times I would intervene, which were very, very few, was not because I thought the car is doing something wrong. I just still know that probably I am a better driver in critical situations than FSD. And just as a precaution, I would disengage. I had this one specifically very tricky situation, and I think FSD would have handled it fine, no issues. But, just as a precaution, I also had people in the car, I disengaged, and I I just took over, and it was handling it fine, actually, very well. But, just to be extra safe because the situation was rather sensitive, I I took over. On the other hand, now with this metric in front of me to see, "Would I have made that same decision?"

[00:24:22]I don't know. And Elon actually posted about the release of V14.3.3 and said that it is a banger. For example, actually smart summon, it has speed that has now been increased from 6 mph to 8, which doesn't sound like a big increase, but in percentages, that's a 33% increase, which is a lot. And Omar wrote this review of this newest FSD version, and it is good. As you can see here, I've used self-driving every day for the last 3 days and have gone 41 miles without intervention. This is first truly refined build of FSD 14.3.3.

[00:25:02]It is the first build that surpasses 14.2.2.5 in polish. In my opinion, this is the first version that should have gone wide. So, he's telling Elon, send this wide. This is good. And Zach posted a comprehensive review of this latest FSD version. The driver monitoring system is actually way more relaxing in this build and especially in standard profile. The new car visualization looks so much richer and better as combined with a spring update. Way cooler. Standard is more relaxed with changing lanes. I love that. I sometimes get a little bit just slightly annoyed when I'm on standard and the car changes the lanes a bit too often. If I'm in the hurry mode, okay, change the lanes as much as you like, but on standard, I don't like it as much. So, I welcome this change a lot.

[00:25:51]No twitching or jerky behavior, that's good. It's better with reversing. Mad Max feels a bit more refined. Speed control needs maybe a bit more work, he says. And attention monitoring is a little bit more interesting now. For example, if you are in Mad Max, occasionally it will let you know increased attention could be required if the surroundings require it. So, attention monitoring monitoring is now more based on how difficult is the situation and what mode are you in. He hasn't had any rear braking, jitterness, or twitching. So, this was after six drives and six hours. And today the markets are down a little bit, so that's definitely one reason why Tesla stock is giving us a discount today if you want to buy. I believe Tesla stock is going to $1,000 per share and then after that, according to Elon Musk, Tesla eventually will have factories on the moon. So, after that, to the moon. My name is Matt Wallace. You should make sure to like and subscribe if you haven't yet and I will be back with another video probably on Wednesday. Thank you so much for watching.