Home Prices Are Going Higher

Añadido: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]Afternoon everybody. Uneducated economist here. So in this video we are going to be talking about how the home prices are not coming down. This is it.

[00:00:07]They are pretty much at the bottom. You may find some areas that it depletes as far as going down into the future, but it's going to be very few and far between. Most likely what we are going to find coming into the future is going to be everinccreasing amounts of ability to then transact within this economy in a less restricted financial condition.

[00:00:30]And I know that's very difficult for a lot of people to try and wrap their heads around. But to think about the neutral interest rate rising on inflation and inflation expectations, think about what is happening right now.

[00:00:41]Inflation expectation is now out of control. I mean, everybody is talking about it. I was listening to a news broadcast. I'll see if I can find the link. I'll leave it down in the description, but a guy talking about like how a martini is now $34 and that we'll never see another $20 martini again. And I laughed so hard when I heard this and I'm thinking about it. I was like, man, talk about a pure luxury item, man. Buying a martini for $34.

[00:01:08]Now, if there ever was a description of one, that was it. But we really have to think what is it that's going on right now that is going to then give the relief to the housing market. Not necessarily to the same conditions that we had faced back in say 2020 to 2022 but something in the same kind of nature of what it was that was going on. So we have to really think about what it was that was taking place. This I got from the Federal Reserve. I brought this up the other day. It says current monetary policy may be less restrictive than it seems. And now again, this came out in May of 2024.

[00:01:45]Excuse me. But it is really good when you hear what it is that they have to say in this one spot down in here. Oops, let me bring it back up.

[00:01:55]It says accounting for both inflation expectation and RSAR highlights that while monetary policy is currently restrictive, it did not become restrictive until early 2023 when inflation expectations declined.

[00:02:13]So when inflation expectations declined, that is when monetary policy became restrictive. And so now here it is. We have to think inflation expectation is not declining.

[00:02:27]It's increasing. And in fact, it's increasing in a dramatic way. Right? $34 martinis. We'll never see another $20 martini again. To hear this is only just proving the point of what it is that we are now facing with this within this economy. The everinccreasing amounts of debt issuance and the abundance of money. There is no better sign of that than in luxury items and rental properties.

[00:02:55]This is why we are seeing a bottom in the housing market. Now, even though many people will not agree with that, you will find plenty of crash bros out there who are saying that this is not even close to being the beginning. The real crisis comes from those who are anticipating a crash that they will then be able to jump into the housing market during. They will not get it.

[00:03:19]They do not get that opportunity. That opportunity has passed. See, what we're going to find is that a real interest rate may possibly go negative. If you are not already holding the fixed income debt, then you are not going to be able to take full advantage of it. Those who have already positioned themselves waiting, anticipating for elevated inflation and inflation expectation to lower the real interest rates are about ready to kill it in this economy. You're about ready to see a stimulus package to all those debt holders unlike anything that you had ever witnessed.

[00:03:56]Maybe not quite to the level of COVID, but pretty dang close. Continue to push the war effort. continue to push tariffs, continue to push Fed independence, and continue to push the idea that there's inflation coming in the future, and you will make this economy far less restricted than anybody had ever given a consideration for. And eventually, it will become accommodating if you keep pushing it. push it ever higher and you'll watch it become ever less restricted or ever increasingly more accommodating depending on how it is that the Federal Reserve decides to position themselves in it. Let me read it again. Accounting for both inflation expectation and RSTAR highlights that while monetary policy is current restrictive, it did not become restrictive until early 2023 when inflation expectations declined. So when it increases, you're going to find the economy far less restricted or even possibly accommodating. I'm going to repeat it over and over again so people get it because those who hear this and understand it and retain it are going to be able to then recognize why it is that the economy is doing so much better than anybody had ever given a consideration for. People who are suffering the most through this are the wage earners.

[00:05:15]80% of the people are not going to see it. They're going to think about what it is that they need to do in order to make their economy better. But they are not going to understand what it is that is happening within the economy that is actually making it better for the consumer. Because the consumer is not the wage earner. The consumer is the top 10 20% of household incomes who take full advantage of real interest rates going negative.

[00:05:42]It's most of the most of the understanding of the Federal Reserve has come to the conclusion that if the Federal Reserve elevates in in interest rates, the Fed funds rate, it restricts the economy. If they lower interest rates, it eases the economy.

[00:06:00]That is not the only way it works.

[00:06:04]The easing and tightening of financial conditions can happen with the Federal Reserve standing still.

[00:06:11]This is why you hear Jerome Powell saying they're they're centering in on neutral or however he phrased it is because the neutral interest rate has risen on an inflation expectation.

[00:06:24]This is going to stimulate the economy.

[00:06:26]It is going to be a benefit to the asset holders. You wonder why it is that Trump has passed this law trying to ban the institutional investors from taking full advantage of a negative interest rate environment before it happens. I mean, it makes sense now, doesn't it? Listen to Peter Schiff talk about how damaging this is going to be for the renter.

[00:06:49]It's so awesome. I love watching this take place. It's difficult for a lot of people to understand, especially if you're trying to learn this stuff for new for for the first time, right? If you're trying to understand what's going on with the economy and you're trying to simplify it to the easiest of of your abilities, I totally get it. I did the same thing, but it's a hell of a lot more complicated and backwards than most people would ever have thought.

[00:07:12]To think about how it is that an inflation expectation can lower the real interest rates and then how it is that the asset holders who have positioned themselves ahead of time are going to take full advantage of that. And the people are going to suffer the most are the people who are wage earners looking at the inflation that is happening as a punishing effect forcing them ever further down the wedge.

[00:07:39]Like if anybody can't describe I don't know how it is that they're describing it to you. I do not know what it is that other people are seeing out there. I have no idea on how it is that they are expressing their understanding of economics. But from what I have gathered from the Federal Reserve's own words, what we are about ready to face is something of a less restricted economy that could even turn accommodating. And when I think about who that's most accommodating for, it's not the wage earners.

[00:08:10]We're not the ones who take full advantage of it. The best that we get is the ability to find a job.

[00:08:18]That's the best that we got they have to offer.

[00:08:22]And anybody who doesn't see it or doesn't position themselves for it will suffer the consequence. Those who are waiting for an opportunity to buy a house are going have essentially are going to miss out as the real interest rate goes negative.

[00:08:39]They are going to miss out on their opportunity to then use their debt to then have a position in which that debt literally can pay them off.

[00:08:51]And it's so backwards to think about.

[00:08:56]Literally getting paid to hold a debt.

[00:08:58]If you can see it, it's not outright. You don't get a check in the mail.

[00:09:06]What it is is the devaluation of the dollar is secured inside of a fixed payment. So as the devaluation takes place and the dollars become easier to acquire, the debt that you are paying is fixed.

[00:09:21]It doesn't change. So the higher the inflation goes, the easier it is to pay off that fixed debt.

[00:09:30]It's simple when you see it. It's hard to understand it if you have never been in it before, if you've never researched it, and if you have never thought about how it is that the Federal Reserve is literally using this expectation to create an easing or tightening of financial conditions. Remember, the monetary policy is current restrictive, but did not become restrictive until early 2023 when inflation expectations declined. Look at the inflation or look at the house prices from 2020 to 2022 off the charts. When people talk about house prices coming down, they haven't even remotely come close to what they were back prior to CO before the inflation expectations ran out of control.

[00:10:19]If you have inflation expectations that are elevated again, do you think that the house prices are going to fall or rise based on what we had experienced from 2020 to 2022?

[00:10:32]Again, this highlights that while monetary policy is current restrictive, it did not become restrictive until early 2023 when inflation expectations declined. If inflation expectations are not declining, what are they doing?

[00:10:51]They're increasing, easing the financial conditions and may actually turn accommodating.

[00:10:58]This is what we have to face.

[00:11:02]I'm going to repeat it over and over again because I don't know. I can't find anybody else who's saying this. Literally, I cannot find anybody else on the internet who is even coming close to sharing any of this with you. And this is coming directly from the Federal Reserve. Think about it. If they are trying to use the specific specific words and sentences in order to create the financial conditions, who said that, right?

[00:11:30]We got this from Philip Jefferson, February 21st of 2025.

[00:11:37]Right.

[00:11:40]The title of this speech, reading between the lines, textual analysis of central bank communications.

[00:11:49]This data re shows that investors reactions to specific sentences communicated by the central bank are quickly incorporated into asset prices.

[00:12:00]Policy makers know that their communications are likely to affect the course of short-term interest rates. the asset prices and the associated economic outlook resulting in an easing or tightening of financial conditions.

[00:12:15]Policy makers know that their communications result in an easing or tightening of financial conditions.

[00:12:26]Communications result in an easing or tightening of financial conditions. Just the communications alone.

[00:12:34]$34 martini. We'll never see another $20 martini ever again. What is your inflation expectations? Are they low or are they high? You don't need to know too much more about it. And outside of the idea that if you elevate the inflation expectation, you will lower the real interest rates. Raise it enough and the real interest rates go negative.

[00:12:57]You want to know what a negative real interest rate environment looks like? Go to 2020 to 2022 till the end of 2022 and that's what you will find what a negative real interest rate environment looks like. Elevated inflation, elevated Fed funds rate and a negative real interest rate environment that had the housing market on fire.

[00:13:26]How many other people see it? Very few, right? How many other people are going to explain it to you like that? Nobody.

[00:13:34]Literally nobody. Unless you want to lit I mean the Federal Reserve explains it, but you got to go through all the Fed speak and then you got to find somebody who can interpret the Fed speak and highlight exactly the specific sentences that you need to see in order to understand how it is that they're doing it.

[00:13:49]This is crazy to think about. I mean, I read so many articles hoping and wishing and praying that I can find somebody who is explaining what it is that's going on with monetary policy and what is about ready to happen with asset prices and what it is that's going on with the housing market in a fashion that you can then use. But how many people are explaining it? Nobody. I can't find anybody.

[00:14:14]All right. Some people touch on it, some people close, but nobody keys in on it like I have. And I'm not trying to brag it up because I'm just trying to share what it is that the Federal Reserve has explained as their problem and the results that they need in order to fix their situation and what it ends up causing is a lot of pain and suffering to the people and a lot of great awesome times for the asset holders. And this is what we can expect going into the future. If you want a better future, you better position yourself accordingly. To know how it is that it's happening and why it's happening.

[00:14:50]To hope and think and pray and dream that there's going to be a politician coming in to save the day, you're going to be waiting a very long time. If you're waiting for a better opportunity to buy a house, you are going to miss it.

[00:15:04]Think about it. Do you want to buy a house in an elevated real interest rate environment? Or do you want to buy a house in a negative real interest rate environment? And do you want to already be positioned when the negative real interest rate environment occurs?

[00:15:21]You ever heard the term buy low, sell high? Right?

[00:15:26]It's hard to position yourself if you don't see it. But if you see it, then it's easy.

[00:15:31]Think about it. $34 martini. We're never going to see another $20 martini again.

[00:15:37]To hear somebody actually use those words as a frustration of inflationary pressures within the economy and I'm thinking you just described a pure luxury experience, man. Like all of that was so telling that one little quick street interview that had taken place with somebody. I thought to myself, man, if that is not a like if that is not the epitome of what it is that's taking place right now, you know how much a martini cost nowadays? This is ridiculous. Yeah. And I'm thinking, oh my god, man. I mean, it was just like this is really happening right here, right now. Yes, it is.

[00:16:18]So, if you can see it and understand why it's happening, then you can position yourself to take advantage of it. Tell me, would you want to have bought a house prior to 2020 before the market shot up? I did. You know how many people told me I was about ready to lose everything in my life, that I was about ready to go underwater, that I bought a house at the worst possible time, and then I am trying to justify that purchase. You know how many people told me that? Well, they all missed out. They all missed out on that opportunity because I bought the house before that major spike took place before it become unachievable for the average everyday worker out there. I got my piece of it scared as hell thinking, man, house prices are going to collapse when the interest rates go up. They went exactly the opposite way.

[00:17:11]Why? Because we were in a negative real interest rate environment.

[00:17:16]We're about ready to enter another one.

[00:17:19]If the Federal Reserve is standing still and the inflation expectation is elevated, $34 martini, never see another $20 martini again, is your inflation expectation elevated or not? If you say yes, then you might as well say we are headed for a negative real rate environment. What does that look like?

[00:17:39]Again, go back 2020 to 2022.

[00:17:45]All right, let's read some comments since I repeated myself for 17 minutes straight.

[00:17:50]And we're going to call it quits here in three minutes. All right, good. I'm here. I'm happy place watching. Thank you, Deja.

[00:18:00]Tabitha says clueless. All right.

[00:18:03]Cornfed 489. Chevron Phoenix 49. What for a gallon of gas? That's cheap. We're over $5 here in Atoria.

[00:18:11]Uh, no supply, lots of equity. People pay $20 20 bucks for an avocado toast, right?

[00:18:18]Avocado toast and martinis.

[00:18:25]All right.

[00:18:27]I bought pro for 545 today. E gods. So, you're saying we're never going to see silver at 30 anymore? No more manipulation? Oh, I'm not going to say that about silver. Silver is an incredibly incredibly manipulated market. I'm not even going to pretend to say that that thing is going to come to an end or what it is that's going to happen within silver. The only thing I know about silver is that it's an awesome insurance policy that gets you outside of that third party risk. And if you dollar cost average over time, it works out swimmingly for that savings outside of that third party risk. Uh anything other than that, I don't know what you want to do with it. Some people want to buy it to try and make some bunch of money, and I guess it's possible, but that's not the way I look at it. All right. In my opinion, if you have the opportunity to get into a house right now and finance it, then you are probably going to experience something of a negative interest rate environment, which is going to make that debt burden a hell of a lot easier to deal with. If you are of the of the idea that the inflation is going to collapse and that we will find zero inflation taking place in the future, I would not I I wouldn't jump into it at this point cuz if that's the idea then you are going to find a collapse of everything happening out there. You're going to find a collapse of the financial system, collapse of stock market, collapse of all that stuff. everything is going to collapse if if inflation goes back to zero or goes if if it falls, you know, below target or whatever it is. All the craziness that we were experiencing during the great financial crisis is going to come back in a way that is going to slap the people so damn hard they will not know how to deal with it, including the rich and the asset holders and everybody else. It's going to be a devastating effect. I don't believe that's going to take place. They will continue to break the supply chain.

[00:20:23]That's all you need to do. You don't The money printer doesn't do it, but breaking the supply chain does. So, as long as you can continue to do that, then you won't have to worry about a complete complete collapse of the markets or financing or any of that other stuff. You can continue to actually stimulate the economy because the asset holders are going to see the inflation expectation turn the real interest rates to a negative position, which is going to be stimulating.

[00:20:52]We have to get this. Inflation going to zero will crash the American economy and probably the world.

[00:21:03]That's what will happen.

[00:21:05]So people who are like looking for that opportunity or something like that, you're not going to get it because even then at that point you won't have a job to get the loan and it won't be a loan available anyway.

[00:21:19]And unless you have cash, you're not getting any property.

[00:21:24]The window of opportunity is closing right now.

[00:21:28]Now, if you believe that inflation expectations are going to remain elevated for a significant amount of time going into the future, which I believe is the monetary policy, if you believe in that, then most likely you are going to find that a position inside of debt during a negative real interest rate environment is going to be quite stimulating to you.

[00:21:52]So, pick a pick a pick a path, right?

[00:21:55]Which one is it? Is it inflation expectation or deflation? Which one do you think is going to occur going into the future? Which one do you think the powers that be are going to prevent?

[00:22:06]What is it that you think is honestly going to happen from the central banking systems out there when it comes to a deflationary pressure that starts to mount? Are they going to let that happen or is there going to be more inflation?

[00:22:19]Do you think that they are going to let the whole thing collapse under their under the weight of the magnitude of debt issuance or are they going to try and continue on with the debt issuance?

[00:22:32]Now, I get it. Some people believe that there is going to be a total collapse.

[00:22:36]If that's the case, you might want to be in some silver, right? You might want to have taken a position outside of the third party risk. But if you believe that they're going to continue to push it and they're going to keep the system tied together and there going to be everinccreasing amounts of debt issuance and money prints or go burr and all that kind of stuff going on, then you might want to position yourself in assets and you might want to do it quite quickly.

[00:23:00]If you don't, you will be left behind.

[00:23:01]It's buy assets or die trying.

[00:23:07]All righty, guys. I got to go. You beautiful people. I rambled on, but I hope you appreciate the videos and everything that we have done. I loved the video that Zuber did with the interview. It was great. It breaks down even more of this stuff. I love this topic. I love the fact that we are breaking it down. And I really, really, really think that if you can disenalize it for just a minute and then see it, you're going to start to recognize how it is that they have manipulated and played this game against you. 80% of the people are literally getting played, right?

[00:23:46]They're using their expectations, their emotions, and everything against them in order to benefit a handful of people. We break this down regularly here on this channel. I have links down in the description to the school community where you can learn all this stuff for yourself. I have the speeches highlighted for you. I have put together a video, an hour-long video course that you can then internalize how it is that the credible threat theory plays out.

[00:24:15]Once you see it, once you recognize it, all the articles, all the mainstream media, all that other stuff starts to become very secondary.

[00:24:23]They start talking very surface level.

[00:24:26]They do not get into the depths of it and they do not recognize how it is that they are playing the people's expectations against them. Once you see it, man, you can't unsee it. It's just the way it is. We have a great group of guys there. This is like a community of people who are like-minded who have it in their head that they are going to use this information to to position themselves to the best that they can.

[00:24:50]and everybody's doing a different position and because of that they share the ideas they bounce it off you know the other guys and we have the ability to then say hey man this is what we see through the credible threat theory lens and how it is that you can use your position.

[00:25:07]It's all about suggestions and ideas and a lot of it just really has to do with a lot of self-reflecting on what it is you already know because intuitively you have the right answers inside of you already. You know you do. Uneducated economist, you guys let me know.