Yes, he’s more likely to die on his birthday

[00:00:00]00;00;00;00 - 00;00;29;04 Unknown Donald Trump's 80th birthday is Sunday. He is  already the oldest president ever. Now, sometimes people say you are more likely to die on or around  your birthday. Could that possibly be true? Many of you wrote to me and said, Does Donald Trump  need to be extra careful this weekend? Well, I don't know about extra careful, but it is in  fact true that people are more likely to die on or around their birthday. 00;00;29;05 - 00;00;50;14 Unknown It is true the reasons why matter. But yes, Donald Trump should  be careful. Now this is all in good fun. Okay, we're just chatting here, but it is an interesting  thing. The average mortality rate on birthdays is 7 to 14% higher than you would expect based on  people's underlying age and health. And it becomes more and more pronounced. 00;00;50;14 - 00;01;13;08 Unknown The additional risk of death around one's birthday goes up  when people are over 60 years of age. Now, different countries have looked at this. Different  data sets have looked at it. They all find the exact same phenomenon. Now the exact size of the  effect varies. Like I said, are you 7% or 14% more likely to die around your birthday? 00;01;13;09 - 00;01;42;20 Unknown But every study finds something. Interestingly, it's different for men and women. Men's mortality  tends to peak in the days leading up to the birthday, including the day of the birthday.  Women's mortality peaks right after the birthday.

[00:01:30]Now, the obvious question as curious people who  want to understand the reality around us, why does this happen? Why is it that this takes place? 00;01;42;21 - 00;02;04;23 Unknown Imagine that it is a supernatural phenomenon and  then put that completely out of your mind because it's not. We actually have some  very specific reasons that have been proposed, which would explain why this takes place. First  of all, people. Remember, these are averages.

[00:01:59]You might hear this and you go, I don't do any  of this stuff. Fine. But we're talking about a population level analysis. 00;02;04;24 - 00;02;28;18 Unknown People on average do riskier things on or around their  birthday. They drink more alcohol on average, which makes it more likely that you would  fall if you're over 60. Falling is more likely to lead the death than if you are under  60. Drinking more alcohol makes it more likely you could get alcohol poisoning, and drinking  more alcohol makes it more likely that you would be in a car crash. 00;02;28;20 - 00;02;55;21 Unknown You might also be doing travel that you don't normally do, and  having long, exhausting travel days or changing behavior in other ways can slightly increase  your risk. So that's number one. Number two, there is the stress of aging and getting  a year older, combined with the stress of planning or attending your birthday  party. And this can increase the risk of heart attack and stroke. 00;02;55;22 - 00;03;19;20 Unknown Now you might say that doesn't really make sense. We all  get a day older every day, of course, but psychologically rolling over to the next  year, going from 79 to 80 or 60 to 61 or whatever, that is psychologically more notable than simply  I'm 79 and 104 days old, and now I'm 79 and 105 days old. So that's number two. 00;03;19;22 - 00;03;48;29 Unknown Number three, birthdays can cause feelings of deep loneliness depending on one's  circumstances. And that can slightly increase suicide rates on or around the birthday. And then  finally, there is this idea of people holding on until a milestone. And sometimes that milestone  can be the birthday sort of a once I've achieved it. Right? And then mortality can go up. 00;03;48;29 - 00;04;17;02 Unknown So for the most part, this phenomenon is because of lifestyle choices  around the birthday and preexisting vulnerability.

[00:03:58]It is interesting. We have to acknowledge it  is interesting that Donald Trump is throwing himself this massive birthday party on the white  House lawn at your expense and at my expense, replete with a UFC fight, f list  celebrities attending, and it is a big milestone birthday of 80. 00;04;17;04 - 00;04;46;23 Unknown If we just separate ourselves from Trump and we just say, hey, listen, based on the data, if you  wanted to design yourself a birthday with maximum stressors, you might choose a huge public event  with an enormous crowd, intense media attention, late night activities, public appearances,  and extremely bright lights. And I think also explosions is part of the entire thing. 00;04;46;23 - 00;05;06;17 Unknown So Trump's doing a lot here that actually we might look at and go, geez, I don't  know about this. So this is a it's a just for fun segment. We're looking at scientific phenomena  and applying it to the world around us. But I know many of you are curious about this. You wrote  in and he said, all these people are saying you're more likely to die in your birthday. 00;05;06;20 - 00;05;36;00 Unknown I am very much interested in these phenomena, and it turns  out that this particular one is true. Now, what does it mean for this weekend? Probably  nothing. Right? I mean, remember that a 79 year old man big picture is still likely to  live for many more years now. If he's obese, if he only eats fast food, if he doesn't exercise,  if he's increasingly struggling to stand, which we'll get to later. 00;05;36;00 - 00;05;55;19 Unknown Certainly those are risk factors. But even if you take someone who is  expected to live 8 or 9 more years and you say, well, their mortality rate goes up 7 to 14% on  their birthday, they still are most likely to live. And so I continue to believe that Donald  Trump is going to serve out the full remainder of his presidential term. 00;05;55;22 - 00;06;26;12 Unknown A lot of people put on music while they work, assuming it helps them concentrate. But  in practice, familiar songs lyrics are constantly changing. Tracks often will take attention away  from what you're working on rather than supporting attention. And that's where brain FM comes in.  Our sponsor, Brain FM, is a music app designed to support focus, relaxation or sleep with music  created by human musicians working alongside neuroscientists instead of generic playlists. 00;06;26;15 - 00;06;54;10 Unknown Brain FM offers task specific modes like deep work, creative, and motivation. Depending  on what you're trying to do. What makes brain FM different is the science behind it, because  it's the only music app funded by the National Science Foundation based on their unique audio  technology designed to influence brain activity associated with focus. Brain FM also has published  peer reviewed research showing their technology supports attentional performance. 00;06;54;17 - 00;07;17;06 Unknown They even have an optional ADHD mode for people who benefit  from additional stimulation. But the app really is built for anybody looking to reduce  distractions and stay engaged with their work.

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