Is This What Summer 2026 Really Looks Like ? – ECMWF 4 Week Outlook UK & Ireland

[00:00:00]Well, welcome to today's video. We're having our regular look using the ECMWF model for the next 4 weeks taking us from today's date, Monday the 15th through to Monday the 13th of July. This will cover the complete UK and Ireland.

[00:00:18]Is there any comparisons with the JMA end of last week? Let's find out.

[00:00:25]To start us off, the first week from Monday the 15th to Monday the 22nd of June. We've got low pressure which is in blue from Northwest Scotland over Ireland.

[00:00:39]Slack air pressure in white across most of England and Wales and the far southeast we've got some pinkish colors which is high pressure.

[00:00:54]So, a bit of a mixture there.

[00:00:56]So, what's this going to bring for us?

[00:00:59]You can see the dark red colors there which I've been talking about for several days now from roundabout Lincolnshire across and through the Midlands down towards the south coast. We've got temperatures there about 3 to 5° above normal. So, we can get some pretty high temperatures down there. Everywhere else, temperatures around 2 to 3° above average.

[00:01:28]And if we're looking at the rainfall, as you would expect, that area from across roundabout Hull through Wales down to the southwest is looking to be mainly dry with below average rainfall. We've got slightly above average rainfall for Ireland and west side of Scotland.

[00:01:52]Then you've got that average rainfall for or southwest of Wales, northern England, east coast of Scotland.

[00:02:01]Now, we're looking at the 22nd of June to the 29th.

[00:02:07]High pressure is over the UK and Ireland. This is going to bring temperatures a couple of degrees above average, and you can see that triangle area there from the Midlands southwards.

[00:02:20]That's going to be temperatures about 3° above average.

[00:02:25]Rainfall, it looks to be fairly dry with below average rainfall. Top of Scotland, east side of Scotland, east side of northern England, rainfall is around average. So, again, it's going to be fairly dry.

[00:02:44]29th of June to the 6th of July. Those white colors, that means it's slack air pressure. So, it's neither high or low pressure.

[00:02:55]Again, it's bringing temperatures above average for Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland, and England. From about Manchester [clears throat] southwards, temperatures are probably 2 to 3° above average. Around average temperatures for the west side of Ireland. And [clears throat] for England and Wales, that seems to be around average rainfall. And for southern parts of Ireland, slightly above average rainfall for the west side of Ireland, Northern Ireland, west side of northern England, and Scotland, slightly above average rainfall.

[00:03:34]And the final period again, the 6th of July to the 13th. Again, slack air pressure is over the UK and Ireland.

[00:03:45]Now, it looks like we've got around average temperatures for Ireland.

[00:03:50]Everywhere else, Scotland, England, and Wales, temperatures 1 to 2° above average and around average rainfall for all areas there. So, that will should be fairly dry, really.

[00:04:07]Well, it's not looking too bad, is it?

[00:04:08]Looking fairly dry and temperatures a little bit above average. So, I think we'll take that.

[00:04:16]But, of course, it's just a general outlook. There's no detail there, and things can change. But, that's the general outlook for the next 4 weeks from the ESTEEM DWIF. If you've enjoyed this type of content, do give me a thumbs up and leave a comment below.

[00:04:31]Love to hear from you, and you might want to have a look at this video up here.

[00:04:36]Till we meet again, look after yourselves and those you love. BFN.

[00:04:42]Bye for now.