Russia Is Done Holding Back

追加: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]We had that horrific attack at the school in Lugansk. From what I heard, 16 children so far.

[00:00:06]>> 21 children, mostly mostly girls between the ages of 14 18, you know, >> future teachers. It was a, you know, a teacher training college, a normal college.

[00:00:17]>> It seems like Putin responded forcefully to this with the archnic strikes um in Kiev. And some people have been making a big deal out of the archnik, but to me it almost doesn't feel like a big deal.

[00:00:28]It's just like because we see Russia strike into Ukraine all the time with hypersonic missiles, with drones, and then okay, you use a new weapon, it's it's advanced, unstoppable, but you weren't stopping the other things anyway. So, it to me it didn't even seem like a major escalation, a big play. Do you feel like that's the case or was this a significant response and something that has woken up Europe or >> Yeah. Well, it's a significant response.

[00:00:56]There's no question about it. But I think it like in if you look at in terms of just a a missile strike, a large number of very high-end missiles, hypersonics were used in this, you know, more so than in any previous strike and it was on Kiev. So it was an escalation in that sense in the air war, you know, it clearly was. Um, now, you know, as far as the arric goes, um, I've I've heard it described as, you know, the way that they're using it, they're not the the submunitions, you know, the are actually inert. They're just some kind of metal. And I there's we're not clear on exactly what they're using. You know, maybe maybe it's a kind of metal that can penetrate deep into, you know, underground bunkers. Maybe not. We don't we just don't know. Um, but it is demonstra. You know, I I saw some videos where you see it way out in the distance and it didn't look like that much, but I saw one video that was taken from nearby and it was horrifying. You know, it really it has a psychological effect that the other weapons don't have where if you're anywhere close to it, you know, it's it's really something else.

[00:02:01]Um, it's demonstra in two sense. Yeah, there is this kind of psychological impact of of these you know um again these um submunitions coming down at at hypersonic speeds and you know one after another that that that is just it's nightmarish you know to the people who who are in the vicinity. Um but it's also demonstraative in the sense that it it actually is designed to carry nuclear submunitions. It can it can do that. And so like every time they use it, it's a a reminder to Europe that look, we have this, there's nothing you can do to stop this. And you know, if these instead of being six pieces of metal, these are six nuclear warheads. You know, that's your city or you know, understand that. I I think that's part of what's going on. Um but yeah, overall it was a very forceful response. It was an escalation. they have, you know, in general they gone kind of been um been light, you know, when it comes to strikes on on Kiev in particular. And this time, you know, that they weren't, you know, I think they're showing and apparently another u major attack is is is imminent. The Russians warned uh actually issued a warning to again to diplomats and others, you know, that there is going to be another strike and maybe you want to get out of Kiev.

[00:03:27]So they were quite this was a real retaliation, you know, an escalation in response to this horrific attack on the on the the school in um Lugansk.

[00:03:36]>> Well, I mean, if it was a retaliation al to say like, hey, don't mess around. It the message isn't received by Ukraine or the Europeans, right? It doesn't seem like these what's the I feel like why were they holding back on striking these targets to begin with? You know, obviously Ukraine isn't going to hold back. if it had the capability, it would do it would strike Moscow. It does try to strike Moscow regularly. It just doesn't have uh much of an effect. So, you know, I I I feel like what's the I don't know how effective this was. I mean, just yesterday, didn't um Ukraine kill six civilians in Bonsk or or somewhere? I think >> I don't know actually. I wouldn't be surprised. again, you know, this like this attack on a school was particularly horrible, but these things happen um like every every several months or something like this, you know, an attack on a marketplace and attack on a school, you know, clearly deliberate like in this uh in the case of this um attack on a school in S Belk, there was there were three waves of drones, four drones that struck the school directly. It was there was no no military installation anywhere in the neighborhood. Uh the eventually the um Ukrainians came up with this story that oh this is where um this a Rubicon operational center, you know.

[00:04:55]Yeah, of course. You know, you're going to be pulling the the dead bodies of teenage girls out of the Rubicon operational center. Um it it was deliberate. They knew what they were doing. Um and you know, I I say that with confidence. You know, there's always mistakes are made in war, but the thing is that this is a part of a regular pattern. You know, I don't know what happened in Biance, but I wouldn't be surprised because it is almost a daily occurrence that there are deliberate strikes on civilians in these in these regions that are that border Ukraine. It and it goes back again 12 years. It began, you know, really in 2014. There's just deliberate strikes and it's something that again really led to the launch of this special military operation ignored by the West, even suppressed by a great extent by the OCE that was monitoring. They knew what was going on, but they the people at the top, you know, kind of spun the information. Um, this was the reality.

[00:05:47]There is this this deliberate terror, you know, the deliberate um killing of civilians. Somebody pointed out that most of these most of these kids had uh Ukrainian names.

[00:05:59]Um, again, you know, the these are supposed to be Ukrainians, right? This is Lugansk. So, you know, what are they doing? You know, because they're traitors. They're on the wrong side and their lives don't matter.

[00:06:09]Um, again, can you support the Ukrainians? You know, if you see this kind of behavior and they you you really want them to go back in, do you think anybody in Lugansk wants to see the Ukrainians come back? Anybody in any of the Russian occupied territory wants to see the Ukrainians come back? I say no.

[00:06:24]Uh, but of course, you know, this is this reality that I'm talking about is just is completely hidden from the west.

[00:06:31]So, uh, deliberately suppressed. So as he pointed out you know uh after the retalitary strike you know the Russians said we are going to retaliate they retaliated. this is our retaliation. In the west, it was just described as completely unprovoked, barbaric attack, you know, and no no discussion of of the the attack on the on the school in Lagonsk. And that's so you kind of wonder like what's the point really, right? You know, we retaliate. It just doesn't seem to matter. Whatever. And that also, you know, I think should give us an indication of what might happen if, for example, in response to attacks from NATO territory into um Russia, Russia finally strikes back into NATO territory, you know, like for example, strikes a base in in Latvia or something like that. Um will the Europeans say, "Oh gosh, you know, they were warning us we probably shouldn't have done that."

[00:07:25]And in fact, you know, it was a violation, you know, of article 51 of the United Nations. You know, we were facilitating these attacks. Okay, that was a mistake. Of course not. It's just going to be the Russians are crazy. You know, look, we were telling you they're going to invade Europe and and it would that's how it would be played. And I think the Russians understand it. So, they're they're in a difficult situation. I I think like um Medvetive himself you know discussed that and said yeah you know probably like if there was any logic behind you know other than just blood lust behind this attack on the school it was to provoke the Russians into retaliating and then using the retaliation as further justification is you know to to increase the hysteria in Europe and increase support for Ukraine and he said I we know that but we just have to do it at this point. Do do you think that that's working to increase the hysteria in and Europe and to try to gear the Europeans up for a war with Russia or do you think that people are starting to see through it like this doesn't make sense? They people have like we were just talking about earlier they don't have narrative control like they used to. People are able to watch shows like ours or listen to Jeffrey Sachs or John Mirshimer talk about things Judge Knap and they're like this doesn't make sense. And I'm sure there's a lot of good, you know, this is just in the English speaking community.

[00:08:44]I'm sure within Europe I'm sure there there are German podcasters and and and French as well talking about this.

[00:08:49]>> Yeah, I don't know. I don't think there's many. The US is actually better is my understanding. You know that there is more disscent, open descent in the US and in Europe. Um and you know those broadcasters that have um that are fiercely critical of um the policy visav Ukraine and Russia have been persecuted and have suffered real consequences in places like Germany. Um yeah there is a knowledge but of of of what's going on but a lot of people do buy the mainstream nar narrative. Um even so in spite of that you know it's just like support for actually um Ukraine is seems to soften by the day throughout Europe and and the the elite there is a huge gap between the way the elites look at it their uh commitment to Ukraine and the thinking of ordinary Europeans. Um but you know that's the elites are constantly working on that.

[00:09:49]You know they try to scare their people and they might eventually succeed. You know, that's I hope they don't. So far, they failed to, but they might eventually s succeed with something. And that's what the Russians have to be careful about.

[00:10:02]>> Yeah. I mean, we I've heard that the AFDA is now the largest party pulling at around 30% and the CDU is down like low 20s now. And um so I think that's just a that a sign of bell weather, right? We can see where where the winds are are moving. I'm not sure of the situation in France. I I know. Is there any political hope that we can hope for? Is there an election coming up? Something that could potentially change this and sort of just change I think the most important thing for the war in Ukraine is the narrative war. I feel like we've won the narrative war when it comes to Iran and that's great. And we just got this crazy Israeli.

[00:10:40]>> I say yes and no. I mean, there's still I mean, the decades of demonization against Iran um have had an effect, but I think it's just the horror, the stupidity of this war, even by people who just don't give a damn about Iranians at all, like Robert Kagan. You know, it was just the stupidity of this war has turned people against it. But there are still a lot of people who think that, you know, this is an evil regime. And I, you know, I hear it even sometimes in what you might call dissident media. It's like, well, you know, this is an evil regime, but we shouldn't be attacking them. It's not an evil regime. I think, you know, that's just not an adjective that we be we should be using. It's just okay. Yeah, it's they're different from us. Um, but you know, all using all kinds of measures, including, you know, like our own measures. And I don't think this is right that you can just take like the the contemporary western measures of what or standards of what makes a good government and and apply it to every country in the world and and say you know you get an A you get a B you you fail whatever um that that's we have this tendency to do that and again okay I believe in multiparity just accept that there are different civilizations that are in different paths but even if you use that you know that kind of uh universalistic um uh let's say metric system, you know, it's Iran actually comes out way ahead of many other Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and all these other the Gulf monarchies in general. I mean even by our own standards. So they have been deliberately you know wrongly demonized and it has had an effect but it's just like this this war is so stupid and is obviously so much you know has been so um destructive to our own side that that a lot of people are going and I you know I think there maybe there is a wakening up just observing you know the the Iranians um and there and and you know comparing tweets from Galabof to tweets from Trump you have to start thinking you know looking at the Lego is you know that it's having an effect. We still have a ways to go when it comes to the West in particular and even other countries. You know they have been affected by our propaganda war. Um I I think the Iranians are winning but they're coming from you know from um you know again they're coming out of these decades of being demonized and so they still have to keep on fighting this war to finally get the respect that they deserve.

[00:13:03]>> Right. And how do you feel like the narrative war is going with the Russia Ukraine one? Do do you think agree with me that this is perhaps the most important battle that needs to be won?

[00:13:13]You know, >> yeah. Well, it's vitally important. You know, the way that people interpret in vents, you know, just like we said, you know, again, there was this retaliation to this horrific attack and and in the west though, it wasn't framed that way at all. It was just another proof of Russian, you know, barbarism.

[00:13:31]Uh and it and the you know the way things that are interpreted can well in the end they can have well they can just they can make wars possible that wouldn't be otherwise possible. You know if people really believe in those things they start to really believe that the Russians are barbarians and that they're they're just hellbent on on blowing up cities and you know and now they're going to go after us. Well, you may end up convincing your people to actually sign up to fight the Russians. you know, they're a long ways from it and maybe they won't be able to do it. I you know, I have reasons to doubt that the the political class in Europe will really succeed, but they're working on it and you know, with as long as they do still, I think largely have control o over the information sphere in this case visav Russia and that does strengthen their position.

[00:14:21]>> How does this war end?

[00:14:24]I don't Well, I I think the most likely outcome is that, you know, the Russians will just continue to um plot ahead. the they'll take back these um these regions, you know, the four Oblasts that they have committed themselves to and then kind of depends on how if the Ukrainians are still standing, they look at and say it's going to be another four years to take Carov and Odessa or something. I don't know. You know, they kind of difficult decision for them, right? This is it's been costly for them and you know not nearly as costly as the the westerners and uh people like Cerski um claim but it is costly you know lives are lost it's um it does it does put stress on the economy their economy has held up they may just decide if we got to do it for 10 years we'll do it um I I mean they've they seem to have that patience and the people so far are behind them um again. Uh I was talking to your sister just the other day and she's saying that, you know, people don't even really think about the war or or they it's not a main topic of conversation. It's something I think it's probably different if you live in a place like Bonsk or or Donetsk. Um but people in Moscow are just, you know, they're aware of it. uh they know but it's been going on for 4 years and they've seen attacks like you know the the recent attack that we're talking about um it does happen periodically and then there's has been the constant drum beat of you know attacks on a smaller scale for 12 years so it's just like you know traffic accidents or something you know it's something as terrible but they happen every day that seems to be the attitude that most Russians have and maybe that's telling you that hey they can just go another 10 years whatever it takes or maybe you know um at at some point I mean the again the drones I think no question have kept the Ukrainians in the war. It just it's because of the drones on both sides. We have what I was reading like a kill zone of something like 30 kilometers that's between the the two areas that are controlled, you know, the area controlled by the Ukrainians area controlled by the Russians. And in between we have roughly 20 to 30 kilometers of kill zone.

[00:16:46]Meaning that you go in there and essentially, you know, um you uh you you're going to have to every every moment that you're in there, you got to be aware that there may be some sort of mechanical bird of prey up there that is has identified you and is going to begin to hunt you. And that's the way it is. And this this is, you know, pretty terrifying. And now the Russians still managed to advance. Uh I think the big w you know the obvious weakness like I think they you know again the Ukrainians have a zombie economy. Um but if if the Europeans um with their factories and the Ukrainians with their workshops are able to turn out enough drones, they can still maintain those kill zones to a great extent, but they still need a certain amount of manpower. And that's where I think they're most critical. I mean, we see it like I there's been a real intensification of the force conscription of the press gangs. I mean, those videos are just becoming where it used to be you see one a day. Now you see like a dozen a day again coming from Ukraine. And again, all the bystanders immediately taking the side of the person who's um that the press gang, the TCC is trying to forcibly conscript and going, you know, smashing their windows or whatever. There is real hatred of those people in Ukraine. And it it tells you that um but they are desperate. They need, you know, they're they're not grabbing these people just for the fun of it. They they they are desperate.

[00:18:14]They got to keep on plugging the holes and they're just and they're becoming more and more reckless in this. And it it does seem to me at some point that has to give. You just don't have the manpower. At some point the people rise up.

[00:18:26]>> Yeah. It's so dark saying like we don't have the manpower. You know, we just use this term, right? It's an abstraction, right?

[00:18:34]We killed all these all these people are dead. We sent them to their death and we're running out of people to send to their death. That's what you're saying.

[00:18:42]>> Yeah. And it's it's understood actually in some cases. You you want to understand the motivations of these these TCC officers. Um some of them have been told that if you don't meet this quota, we're going to send you to the front line.

[00:18:57]Yeah. This can't I can't see this lasting 10 years if that's what we are now. Bution conscription's been going on for like 2 3 years, right? This force conscription has been going on for a while.

[00:19:08]>> Like the first year you had a lot of volunteers and then that began to I think you know uh with the failure especially of the summer offensive of 2023, the disastrous failure, you know, you remember those horrible scenes of those those poor Ukrainian soldiers in the minefields and and that just went on and on. Um then you know we they began to go from volunteers to to conscription and um you know initially you can also see it like in the number of complaints that are filed against the TCC in the in I think actually probably the better acronym is TRC territorial recruitment center you know I think that's when we'll use TRC um they have been you know increasing doubling tripling you know from year to year it just so you know first they were they were compared to what what they do now, they were pretty reasonable. And now they just become increasingly reckless and violent and u you know they going into people's homes into gyms into restaurants onto buses and into psychiatric wards and grabbing people with schizophrenia you know it's just really really dark you know.

[00:20:18]>> Yeah it's horrific. Yeah, I agree with you that I just don't see I mean it's amazing in fact you know I think that the Ukrainians are still there and it's because of the drones but you know you look at that you look at those force conscriptions and you just say that can't go on another 10 years you know I doubt it could go on another year or two so that at some point you know there is I I think we've talked about a collapse for some time I think at some point it really will happen and it may be it's those sort of things are very hard to predict you know again um it could be in the near future. It could be two years from now. Who knows?

[00:20:53]>> And so how do how do we as just citizens, people in Europe, people listening this, what can we do to help make this stop, end this bloodshed? You know, save the few Ukrainian men that are left. I I think that's also the framework we have to always look at it.

[00:21:07]You know, all these people are saying, "Are you Russian propagandists, you Putin lovers?" It's like, >> I'm I'm concerned about these men in Ukraine that are getting pulled off. I I can't you just have some empathy? Think about that. If you were if you were a man in Ukraine and you had a family, you know, a business, whatever it is, you your life there and you they're just going to grab you and throw you off to the front and you're going to die. It's >> Yeah, I think they people need to go and look at those videos. And again, I think an excellent source just like is Marta Havishka who who strongly dislikes Putin. Let's put it this way, you know.

[00:21:41]So, she she's this is not a western Ukrainian, somebody who speaks Ukrainian as, you know, her first language. Um but she you know for the sake of Ukraine you know she points out again and again it's often the woman that you know saved these men and he says you know glory to the Ukrainian woman you know here using it in a different sense you know saving them from from these um uh you know from the press gangs and you'll see they'll move in they'll start smashing windows they'll you know they'll mob these these TCZ guy and they they will be very violent towards the women too you know throw them to the ground hit them over the head they'll do all that but it happens again and can't, you know, why are they that just tells you, you know, they understand what's going on on one level. Um, and where do you stand? Put yourself in that scene. Are you going to be recruiting, not recruiting, but rather are you going to be rooting for the press gangs or are you rooting for those women trying to save their men? You know, and if you're rooting for those women trying to save the men, you're saying that this war has to end. They have to make a deal. Omar Havska says, you know, you just have to make a deal with Putin because this is just we're not going to have any anybody left if this continues. Is that what you're for? You know, that's what you say. You say you're for Ukraine, >> you know, go go spend some time look at that some of those videos. Yeah. You're supporting this nightmare. And then I think the other thing we have to realize is that if you continue to support this and push for war with Russia, that nightmare is coming to your country too in Europe if you do this. You know, this is we're talking just >> nobody wants this. This is we're talking about potentially the end of the world as well. You're talking about going against the largest nuclear power in the world. Just what >> make a deal, guys. Stop this madness and the bloodshed. You like you said, just think about the people that are in occupied Ukraine, you know, like that they're being bombed and shelled. The lanterites, these Ukrainians coming back into that.

[00:23:38]They don't want to be part of this country. Let them go. Just why can't you be okay with that? Just let them have like, okay, you guys are a little bit different. We're different. If you just look at that political map, you know, in the elections in like two 2014 or whatever, you see see it just completely split. This side's all blue. This side's all red. It's like, okay, if I'm going to have to divide up this country, >> very easy. I can see exactly where to divide it. Why is that so bad? I mean, again, it worked great for Czechoslovakia, right? you know, so bad.

[00:24:07]If you like if you're really into your Ukrainian identity and you want to live in a country where everybody speaks Ukrainian, probably the best thing to do is let the Russian speakers go, you know, really just let them go. You don't have to kill them and force them, right?

[00:24:21]>> Yeah.

[00:24:22]>> Right. Why do you want to in to to subjugate them and force them to be like you? Just say like, "I don't like you.

[00:24:28]You stay over there and I'll stay over here." It's >> Yeah. Right.

[00:24:32]I just how different the world could have been if we just were just rational, reasonable people. But now, you know, this is just the scary thing is just once the once war gets going, it just you can't put that back in the bottle and just, you know, I I told you yesterday what I was wanting to talk to you about was to just recap how crazy things have gotten. We didn't get to do that, but this is just kind of the example of just like, >> yeah, >> it just it just keeps on propelling. Um, >> so again, none of this should be normal.

[00:25:00]I mean the genocide in in Gaza which I'll just you know point nobody talks about Gaza because of what's happening in Iran you know there was supposedly a ceasefire there but over you know the since the ceasefire went into effect the Israelis have killed about 900 people that killed an average of about three a day and they're supposed to be supplying according to the ceasefire agreement you know a certain number of trucks um there's like 2,000 are supposed to go in there you know I can't remember the exact number but they're only allowing 30% of what's supposed to be bringing in humanitarian supplies and that's what's ongoing. So, it's a, you know, it's a semi- starvation blockade, this constant violence, you know, uh, buildings continue to be demolished. 90% of of Gaza has been destroyed and they're working on the last 10%, you know, and um, so just, you know, don't forget about none of that should be normal. We say, "Oh, yeah, that's what happens in Gaza, you know, this is not we can't accept this." or what's happening in Lebanon, uh what's happening in the West Bank, you know, you have what's happening on the streets of Ukraine.

[00:26:05]None of this should be normal. And you know, the Europeans and the US could do a lot could actually stop this, you know, to a great very great degree.

[00:26:14]Again, you know, um just like Israel is dependent on the US, Ukraine is entirely dependent on the West, on NATO. And we could say enough of it. You guys just have to make a deal. I'm sorry. Okay, we shouldn't have urged you to make this fight, but it's only going to get worse.

[00:26:31]You know, we're cutting you off tomorrow. Understand that. We're serious about it, >> right?

[00:26:36]>> But but nothing like that's happening.

[00:26:39]>> Yeah. I never want to hear a Western leader say anything about doing something for humanitarian reasons again.

[00:26:43]>> Yeah. Right.

[00:26:44]>> You know, it's it's so such a joke at this point.

[00:26:48]>> Okay, Dad. Let's end it there.

[00:26:50]>> Okay.

[00:26:50]>> Okay. Have a good rest of your day and uh I'll talk to you soon. Well, >> yes. Yeah, probably probably because you're going to because there's going to be a baby on the way and I'm going to need you to come up here and watch the wash my kids. So, >> okay.

[00:27:02]>> All right. Okay. Take care. Talk to you soon.

[00:27:04]>> All right. All right. Bye. Bye. Bye.

[00:27:05]Bye.