HBAR Token Unlock FUD EXPOSED - Why Hedera’s Price WON’T Crash (Market Cap vs FDV Explained)

Ajouté : 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]All right. So, Hedera is about to release additional tokens onto the market and people are freaking out, at least from what I've seen, thinking, "Oh my goodness, the price is going to drop incredibly." It's a misunderstanding of the difference between market cap and fully diluted value. I'm going to explain it to you and I'll start by showing you an example of one that had the exact same thing happen with a much greater order of magnitude and I'll show you what happened. My name is Brian, Big Dom Animal, don't do what I do informational purposes only. Links down below in my description. I've got a crypto school page community. I'm in there every day, teach all things crypto. Let's talk about the Hedera unlock.

[00:00:40]First, this is Hedera at currently at around 9 cents. This is April 27th, 2026.

[00:00:47]Market cap is shown here.

[00:00:50]Fully diluted value shown here. Some of you are going to say, "I know all of this." Just wait a little bit because I'm going to explain why the price will not drop like you think. At least it shouldn't for the reasons you think.

[00:01:01]So, the market cap is a simple calculation taking the total crypto coins that are available on the market, those that are circulating, as they say.

[00:01:12]Throw my hands going around in a circle, circulating, times the current price. So, if you look down here, you'll see total supply 50 billion. So, there's a finite, a fixed supply of Hedera and it's 50 billion.

[00:01:25]Of that, it says here circulating supply 43 billion. By the way, if you're not familiar, this is CoinMarketCap, coinmarketcap.com.

[00:01:33]They have a page like this for every single cryptocurrency that's out there, at least the majority of them. And this information you see up here in the upper left is the same for everyone, meaning they show the same bits of information, data points. So, we got total supply, we got circulating supply, we got market cap, we got fully diluted value. Here's what you do. You take the circulating supply, you times it by the current price, that gives you the market cap at the moment, 43 billion, give or take, in circulation times about 9 cents gives you a $3.8 billion market cap. I'm rounding.

[00:02:07]Fully diluted value is fairly close.

[00:02:09]Why? Because you take the total supply of 50 billion times the price of 9 cents, you get 4.45.

[00:02:17]So, roughly speaking, if we've got 43 billion of 50 circulating, that's about 86 of 100 or 86% is out there on circulating and 14% is not yet out. And what's What's coming out is about 4 billion in, uh, I guess Q2, April, May, June of this year, 2026.

[00:02:41]And that's why people are saying, "Oh, no, it's a large unlock, it's 4 billion and it's coming out." Now, one of the things I want to mention real quick is this is, uh, just AI within, uh, Twitter or x.com. And they talk about the fact that, yeah, 4 more billion are coming out. That means about 95% of all of the crypto is going to be out there.

[00:03:02]It's going to happen in Q2 of 2026.

[00:03:04]Who's it going to? This does matter, right? Some ecosystem development, some open source projects, developer grants, building real utility on the network.

[00:03:13]So, in other words, it's not just going, let's say, to some of these coins just go to investors. And they may not have a lockup, meaning they can just sell them right away. If that were to happen and all of these were to be dumped right away, that may have a a little impact on the market. But again, going back to market cap and fully diluted value, when you when an investor, when a large institution is investing, market cap has purposes, fully diluted value has purposes. When you're comparing apples to apples, company to company, you're going to compare the fully diluted value, not so much the market cap. Why? You can have company A with a market cap of a billion. Company B with a market cap of 2 billion. And you look at it and some people might say, "Okay, well, the market is valuing company B 2 billion twice as the 1 billion." In other words, they think it's twice as great or it's two times better or whatever because the market cap is 2 billion versus 1 billion.

[00:04:16]However, the 1 billion might have fully diluted value of 10 billion.

[00:04:22]Which would be only 10% of their coins are circulating. The 2 billion market cap may only have fully diluted value of five.

[00:04:29]So, you want to look at if you were to take the price times all of the potential coins out there. Becomes a little trickier when you're talking about these that can mint and burn and all of that. But this is a finite number, 50 billion. They're going to look at the fully diluted value and say, "Forget the one and two market cap comparison. It's not company B that's being valued more than A, it's company A at 10 billion fully diluted being valued more than B, 5 billion." So, you want to look at fully diluted value just like you would look at a company. That's how they're comparing crypto to crypto, fully diluted value. Okay, a while ago, let me just show you this real quick, then we'll get back to, um, Hedera. Ondo. I can't remember how long ago this was, oh, January 24th, 2025. I did a video because Ondo had a similar situation. They had 1 billion, roughly, in circulation and 2 billion more were coming out. Now, that's a big difference. You're going from 1 billion on the market and 2 billion were coming out all in one day. They had these major cliffs.

[00:05:36]And so, you went from 1 billion available circulating to 3 billion. The price was around $1.30 and people thought, "Oh my goodness, 1 billion to 3 billion, it's going to go down to 30 cents." No, because it's going to be circulating coins in circulation times the price and fully diluted value is the price times all of the coins. Now, why doesn't the price drop so much? And here's why. This should make complete sense to you.

[00:06:07]If you're an institution or an investor or an individual investor, whatever it is, and you look at a company and you say, "I'm looking at all of these different metrics. I've done my due diligence. I believe that this company is worth $5 billion."

[00:06:23]If additional coins come onto the market like in Ondo's case or Hedera's case, and someone says, "Well, when those coins come on, the price is going to drop quite a bit."

[00:06:34]That would mean you take the price times all of the potential coins and you have a fully diluted value.

[00:06:40]That's like saying today, I believe it's worth 5 billion. I go to sleep, I wake up and I say, "Hmm, nope. It's actually worth a billion."

[00:06:51]That's not the case unless there was some major event that no one knew, like there was some fraud in the financial numbers. But these investors don't just wake up one day and say this $5 billion company's worth one. That's essentially what people were saying with Ondo. They were saying, "You got 1 billion out there, the price is $1.30, you put 2 more billion on the market, the price is going to be 30 cents."

[00:07:12]You look at fully diluted value, if the price went to 30 cents, you would have taken this, let's say, 10 billion valuation all the way down to 3 billion or less, roughly. No, that is not what's going to happen. Fully diluted value is what's going to matter. Can the price fluctuate because of some of these additional coins on the market?

[00:07:32]Possibly. But in Hedera's case, like it shows, we're only talking about, now, 4 billion's a lot, but there's already 40 3 billion out. So, that's a total of 47 billion.

[00:07:45]So, that additional 4 billion's like just a small percentage coming back onto the market. In Ondo's case, it was 1 billion to 3 billion.

[00:07:54]That was big. But even then, I did a video before the Ondo release and after the Ondo release. And here's exactly what happened.

[00:08:04]A couple days before the release, the market cap was 1.7 billion.

[00:08:09]More coins came out.

[00:08:11]After the coins came onto the market, the market cap was 4 billion. That makes sense because the number of coins went up. So, the market cap went up because coins on market times price. Fully diluted value before this happened was 12.9 billion.

[00:08:31]The price was around $1.28 a coin.

[00:08:33]After, it was 13 billion, roughly exactly the same. So, in this case, as you can see, my graphics here are amazing. You're welcome.

[00:08:43]Before, 1.7 billion, after 4 billion.

[00:08:46]Yeah, market cap jumped because more came on and the price stayed the same.

[00:08:50]The price was literally pretty much the same. Fully diluted value didn't change.

[00:08:54]Why?

[00:08:55]Because it was a fixed number of coins and that fixed number did not change.

[00:09:01]The number of them that made it to the market did. So, market cap went up because the price stayed the same and there were more coins.

[00:09:10]Fully diluted value stayed basically the same. So, that's the same reason I'm telling you don't worry about Hedera.

[00:09:18]What people are looking at, investors are looking at, is this number, 4.45.

[00:09:23]There may be more in circulation, but even then, they're probably going to come out fairly slow because you can see they're giving them to different, uh, initiatives, if you will, over a 3-month period of time. So, it's really sort of a slow release and we don't even know when or how or if these will even make it to the market.

[00:09:43]So, we are going to see statistically that there are more, uh, in circulation. This number should go to around 47 billion over the next couple months.

[00:09:52]This number will probably stay roughly the same. If it changes, it's not be it's because the price has changed. It's not because these additional ones have come on the market. So, this market cap will take a little bit of a bump. Maybe it goes up if another 4 billion come out quickly. Maybe market cap goes up by 10%.

[00:10:11]Fairly quickly and fully diluted value stays the same.

[00:10:14]Don't be worried. Know the difference.

[00:10:16]When everyone says fully diluted value doesn't matter, actually no. Fully diluted value matters a lot and it is the only way to actually look at two cryptocurrencies that are similar, in the same industry, doing roughly the same thing. And you look at them and you say, "Well, how is the market valuing them?" Don't look at market cap. One of them may have 10% circulating. One may have 50% circulating. It's not going to tell you anything. Look at the fully diluted value. That's how the market is actually valuing that cryptocurrency. I hope this made sense. Uh please do take a look at my crypto school down below. I'm on there every single day. Any questions you may have and tons of videos to teach you everything about crypto. Have a great day. Thanks for watching.