BOM tips unusually warm and dry winter as El Niño approaches | ABC NEWS

Added: 2026-05-21

[00:00:00]Hi Tom. So there's been talk of El Nino for months now. Just how close are we to its arrival?

[00:00:06]Well Ross, the Pacific continues to warm. Now we started the year with the central Pacific ocean temperatures below average. That was La Nina. But we've seen steady heating since March and we now have a very clear warm signal that has emerged along the equator and that's the engine room of El Nino. Now the key metric to measure the Pacific is called the Nino 3.4 index and the rate of warming this year has been the fastest since 1972.

[00:00:33]We're now only a fraction of a degree off El Nino levels. Now when we do hit that El Nino threshold, that doesn't mean we'll automatically see an El Nino declaration. For that to happen, we need the atmosphere to also respond which means the weather patterns across the Pacific also need to change.

[00:00:52]So what's the outlook for rainfall this winter across the country, Tom?

[00:00:56]Well with the Bureau's modeling predicting that we'll have a an El Nino pretty firmly established through winter, it's no surprise it's also forecasting a dry winter for most of the country. Let's start with the June forecast. This is the chance of above medium rain and you can see there is a weak swing to favor below medium falls across much of southeast Australia. For the rest of the country though next month, it's roughly an even bet of it being wetter or drier than normal.

[00:01:22]However, if we look at the prediction for the whole of winter then the three months from June to August there's a 60 to 80% chance of below medium rain across most of the southeast and also the southwest and also a drier winter is tipped across the southern part of Queensland. And temperatures are likely to follow the recent trend this century?

[00:01:42]Yeah Ross, Australia has not recorded a cooler than normal winter since 2012 and again this winter is likely to be warmer than normal. So here's the forecast for maximum temperatures. It's a greater than 80% chance of above medium maximums for almost the whole country. The only exception there is the northern tropics where it's an even money bet. Minimum temperatures also this winter are highly favored to be warmer than normal. And just finally, well, this is not quite a forecast, but it's an observation. Now, over the last 70 years, the snow depth at Spencer's Creek, which is near the New South Wales ski resorts, during El Niño years, on average, is about 40 to 50 cm below that of neutral years or La Niña years. And therefore, you would expect with El Niño, the odds would favor a below average snow season. And that certainly lines up with the Bureau's prediction of above average temperatures, Ross, and below average rainfall.

[00:02:35]Thanks, Tom.