ANÁLISE ONCHAIN, DADOS REAIS E MUITA RESENHA!

[00:00:00]Cyberspace is a metaphorical idea which is supposed to be the space where your consciousness is located.

[00:00:13][music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [ music] [ music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [ music] [ music] [ music] [music] [music] [music] [music] Good afternoon my feminist consignees and normal people in general. How are you all doing? Is everything alright here? All very well? I'm very happy, we're doing a rebranding this week. Rafaelo, there won't be a new face, right? You already know me, but I'm putting more of my personality into the things I produce to make them different from the others, because that's very important in a market with a lot of pyramid scheme operators taking photos in Dubai to sell courses, right? Hey, I'm not going to sell courses, okay, guys? Because my course is free, right? You only pay for the delivery, which costs R$ 3,499 to get to your house, right? You can send Pix payments, you can send whatever you want, and we accept that as a form of payment, okay? For this special delivery. Just kidding, guys. No, I'm not going to sell you anything, okay? And also, even tomorrow, guys, I'm just waiting for confirmation here because there's going to be a huge, huge piece of news for you, probably during the Brazil game, okay? We're going to do something, probably, but I'll let you know if it's definitely confirmed, okay? I'll let you know as soon as they confirm, I won't say anything in advance, okay, guys? Bitcoin falling, Zcash falling, everything falling, right? And we deliver, we deliver, we deliver anywhere, okay? Anywhere, uh, seven business days there, uh, for all galaxies and the world. No, there's only one galaxy, right, guys? What changes is the way everything goes, the business, right? I do n't know, my head is kind of frying today, guys, because I'm, you know, on this whole branding thing, you know, fixing the Rafaelo brand.

[00:05:04]And my head is kind of spinning, okay? But the entire market is falling.

[00:05:11]We did the analysis there on Tuesday, and we even correctly predicted that it would fall, right? We're still waiting for 60, the 54. And so, today we brought you a beautiful, beautiful on-chain analysis so that you can add even more to Tuesday's analysis and to your knowledge as well, right? Why? Because when I have to pass things on to you guys, I force myself to study, so, uh, it helps me too, okay?

[00:05:43]Actually, I mostly used YouTube for my own study. Uh, I don't know if there's a raffle. I do n't know if there's a raffle. Nobody has commented yet, but we'll see, okay?

[00:05:54]So guys, for this beautiful on-chain analysis that I brought here for you ladies and gentlemen this afternoon, and also the text that I saw there, that the people from other galaxies already listened to the chat, I'm going to ask you to leave your like, subscribe to the channel and talk to me in the chat, do something, for God's sake, because the numbers, guys, the numbers are ugly here in the live stream that everyone is watching the World Cup, okay? Okay? So, if it's the World Cup you want, it's the World Cup we're going for, that's what gives it good, that's what gives it good. I'm here waiting, I'm here waiting for confirmation of our big event tomorrow, because it's a big event, right? I ca n't show up here with the bare face of someone who just woke up. No, I did n't just wake up. I woke up at 8:00 in the morning. I can't show up here with this bare face, can I? It has to happen.

[00:06:54]Yeah, right? It has to show up there to please all audiences. Oh, and I don't know if there's a raffle today, okay? If the deal happens tomorrow, there will be a drawing tomorrow. There will be a raffle for the main prize, okay? I do n't know if there's a raffle today.

[00:07:10]It depends, it depends on how many people are watching the live stream, okay? Yeah, that's it.

[00:07:15]So, since you've already liked and subscribed to the channel, grab some water, and your yerba mate. Let me just swish my little nose around here because today [snoring] today we're going to talk, gentlemen.

[00:07:29]Today we are going to speak. Good afternoon, barbarian goth.

[00:07:34]Thank you very much. Eh, Japanese guy with a bad morning. Good afternoon. As copas começou e as escrito desabô. I cried my eyes out. Yeah, cry in bed, it's a warm place, right? It 's freezing cold here. I even have my esteemed, faithful little companion here at my foot, okay? I'm worried that soon my foot will get gangrenous and fall off from all the ice.

[00:07:57]Good afternoon, Bruno. Good afternoon, Augustoche.

[00:08:00]I left you a message over at Degenerados, okay? There's a little feature there, you can use my account and yours, see?

[00:08:08]Look over there, look over there. It's in the general chat.

[00:08:11][snoring] Uh, good afternoon, Bilu. A, our CT Bilu is looking for commercialization. Hey, whoever doesn't give will be abducted. Uh, I'm, I'm tempted to end this live stream, okay? If you close the live stream, you'll get abducted too. Uh, just one question. [snoring] Good afternoon, Rafa. Longing. What do we have for today? Why, why are we bleeding? First, yesterday, yesterday there was funk, okay? Yesterday, the chairman of the Federal Reserve gave his first speech. Okay everyone, let's talk about the dynamics, okay? Tomorrow afternoon we 'll talk more about macroeconomics, etc. But the dynamic remains the same, okay? The president speaks in favor of Bitcoin, Bitcoin falls. The president speaks against it, Bitcoin falls. The data is positive, Bitcoin falls. The data is negative, Bitcoin is falling. Yes, everything falls apart. Everything falls apart, everything falls apart. 54 is inevitable. Well, I don't know when it's going to happen. No, I'm just kidding, guys. Yeah, I'm waiting, okay? It doesn't mean it will happen, but I believe it will, okay? Do your own analysis. Congratulations to those who have had the privilege of my company for another day. My God, and I can't even begin to measure this privilege that it is for you to be involved in my life. And that.

[00:09:30]Good afternoon, Rafaela. Why is the market correcting aggressively? Your agreement between the United States and IRA is practically a done deal, and the favorable data is simply manipulation. That's not what needs to happen. The market is illiquid, right? The staff are selling, okay? Things are looking bad, folks. Things are looking bad.

[00:09:49]So, uh, the scenario is so much more complex, okay? We can't expect an endless recovery and upward trend. The return of Bull Market is here now.

[00:10:02]Simply because it's a positive piece of data, or don't you know?

[00:10:09]Well, an isolated piece of data, as I always say here in my geopolitical and macroeconomic analyses for you, is just an isolated piece of data, okay? Well, the problem is that this data is embedded within the entire context, right? All the previous data, because one piece of data was positive, okay? It's a positive wine scenario amidst a lot of crap that happened and future uncertainty, okay? It makes the market uncertain. And we're in a very divided market. We're basically in a 50/50 situation, okay? So the market isn't showing a very clear direction right now, okay? But I believe it's a fall, okay? Just to let you know in advance, today we're going to analyze yesterday, and tomorrow afternoon we'll have another analysis.

[00:10:58]I saw that you're doing a raffle. The draw will be on Tuesday. Jeff sponsored the raffle. If it were up to me today, folks, and I have R$2 in my account. If you want, uh, if you want, I'm actually live right now.

[00:11:20][laughs] Me, I'm live right now. I should finish around 4:30.

[00:11:27]Eh, eh, the raffle was sponsored by Jeff. I have exactly R $2 in my account. If you want, I'll give you the R$2. Uh, it's for Lacta chocolate, chocolate flavor, right? Good afternoon. Oh, deep stuff. Good afternoon, sir in black.

[00:11:49]Greetings! or the official DJ here on this channel. Hey Crovis, you said we'd have a raffle today? Yes. No, Jeff was the one who spoke. Jeff was the one who spoke.

[00:11:59]I didn't speak. I said, let's see, let's see. What am I going to raffle off? I don't have any money. [snoring] See Switzerland versus versus Bosnia. I prefer to have a colonoscopy. [laughter] Money, money, money, money.

[00:12:15]Well, I can do a raffle, if you don't want money, I can raffle off a payment slip here too. Oh, there's a bill on my phone account that I need to pay. Anyone who wants to snore would n't be good for the market. It's a good thing we have you to raffle off money for us. So, Kevin, Kevin is with me, okay? And he's good for the market, but look, it's no use putting in a guy who's good for the market if the market is a mess, okay? Yeah, the problem is that too much narrative was included, okay? Well, in the minds of many people, especially the folks here on YouTube, [snoring] means either this or that, okay? Well, either the guy is good or the guy is bad, you know? And then the context is much broader, okay? It is much bigger, it is much more complex. So what happens now? Everyone's here, right? The whole " bread and circuses" thing never goes out of style, right? It never goes out of style. Why?

[00:13:08]Because everyone is focused on the World Cup and no one is looking at the real reality, the true, real scenario of this reality. Did you understand?

[00:13:22]Yes, it's more or less like that. And business, folks, business isn't good, okay? The business isn't getting worse. Well, I've seen a lot of things that have worried me quite a bit, right? So, what does that require? This requires more study from us, okay? More dedication, it's more about following a plan, right? Each of you will decide what to do with your lives, so that we can take advantage of this situation and not suffer because of it. Did you understand? Because that's a choice, okay? Well, as some guy once said, whose name I can't remember, right? Well, sadness is inevitable, suffering is optional, right? So, we have to sell tissues to those who are crying.

[00:14:12]We shouldn't blame the lens for making us cry, right? And if we're going to cry, where should we cry? In the shower, okay? Nobody can see you in the shower. Just those little mosquitoes, right? It's used to film us naked in the shower.

[00:14:25]Yes, including mosquitoes in the bathroom and on the bed, okay? You can only cry in the shower and in bed because nobody sees you in the shower, and bed is a warm place where nobody sees you either, right?

[00:14:35]I hope, I hope nobody sees. I don't even know who's married anymore, do I? Oh, you have to hide in the service area. Good afternoon, Folk Studio. Good afternoon, Thaago. The question everyone wants to know, when will joy return, is the million-dollar question, right, [laughs] guys? There will be a raffle and I will be drawing the names. I'm going to draw lots. No, only you guys leave. This is my live stream. Me neither.

[00:15:02]I believe in 50, between 48 and 54. And folk. Okay, but I'm totally in for 59. 59 is inside. I'm going on a trip [snoring]. Do you want to come with me, boy? If you pay for the ticket, right? If you pay for the ticket.

[00:15:17]Will the prize be 50 dollars? I don't know if there's a raffle today, guys. No, I don't know.

[00:15:22]It depends. Oh, if you donate to the channel, there will be a giveaway, because otherwise there's too much I have to pay for, okay? I already create a lot of great content for you guys here for free. Actually, you guys were the ones who were supposed to give me the money, right?

[00:15:40]Here, look.

[00:15:42]Otherwise, I can't take it anymore, guys. Otherwise I ca n't take it anymore.

[00:15:45]Yes, it's the Bolsa Family Tigrinho cup.

[00:15:48]Exactly. Uh, in the reverse draw. Uh, I sell handkerchiefs. Augustoch sells handkerchiefs. He sells solar-powered clothes dryers. He sells all the products, okay? That candles like TikTok.

[00:16:08]Exactly. The draw will be reversed.

[00:16:11]Exactly. I'm going to draw lots. I'm going to draw lots.

[00:16:13]People don't even give it a like. So it is. They want it, they want it, oh, I said I wasn't going to swear anymore, but I'm going to say this anyway. They want my ass, and I want it shaved too.

[00:16:27]Yeah, that's it here. I'll give it to the channel. It hurts for the canal. I want to see. I want to see. I want to see. If the pagode music comes in, okay?

[00:16:35]If the pagode music starts playing, we'll talk.

[00:16:37]No, otherwise, there's no point in talking here. That's fine. Okay, folks, let me just do the usual introduction here, okay? Okay, it went up a bit here.

[00:17:02]Bitcoin is currently trading at 63,201.

[00:17:08]06.

[00:17:10]Oh my, guys, that's a significant drop, is n't it? I was waiting and I should have kept my shorts there, okay?

[00:17:18]But I closed there at number 64. That was precisely to observe more closely what the market was going to do from then on. Why? Because my goal, you know, since we have to keep choosing, there isn't enough money for everything, right? You can't have everything in life.

[00:17:35]Well, my goal is to put more money into the long positions that I'm going to start opening for the long term, okay? So, the leveraged hold, folks, is a long position where you open it, right? It's not possible to open accounts on all platforms because, depending on the platform, they have high funding rates and high fees, okay? BX is a brokerage firm that charges high fees.

[00:17:56]Well, for this leveraged hold, I prefer to use other brokers, okay?

[00:18:02]And we'll open it up, we'll open it up in installments, in 2 or 5 payments, okay? Five, at most.

[00:18:10]Why? Because the goal is to remain in that operation over time, okay?

[00:18:17]Throughout the entire cycle. So, that 's my goal now. I'm not ruling out short-term trades, okay? Well, let's say, scalping, etc., daily trading, but that's my priority right now, okay? So, for those who didn't see Tuesday's analysis, go back and watch it. The analysis still applies to both Bitcoin and Zcash, okay? The targets, my targets in this case, remain the same.

[00:18:48]Remember, you have to look, you have to do your own reading and see if it makes sense to you. Nothing here is investment advice, okay?

[00:18:56]Except for the business of investing in me, you know, donating to the channel so we can maintain the consistency of the content, right? Because if you see the amount of things I have to do on the side, and yet I'm here for you for free and I 'm not selling anything to you, then you have to help me help you, right? And that. Okay everyone, let's move on to on-chain analysis, shall we? That's because I affectionately gave it that name.

[00:19:26]I don't know if I've changed. Have I changed?

[00:19:29]Damn, I didn't change the cover, guys. It went badly. But the title, the title of yesterday's analysis today is: I spent the night looking for the bottom. Right? Yes, and as a brief introduction for you all, the cover is wrong, okay? The cover is wrong. It went badly. Yeah, man, yesterday it took me 4 hours to make a video, okay? Uh, I lost the video halfway through, so I had to do it all over again. Oh my God.

[00:19:55]Today I spent the entire morning doing the same thing. It's tough, it's tough. Where is it? Okay. Hey guys, a quick introduction here for you. Okay, so what happened? Bitcoin had previously fallen to around 60,000, didn't it?

[00:20:10]It increased the losses for everyone, put pressure on those who entered the market, especially recently, right? The people who sell first are always the ones who buy later. I always tell you this, okay?

[00:20:26]However, behind this fall, some signs began to emerge. Liquidity is increasing; it's not ideal, but it is increasing. Long- term buyers are back again, okay?

[00:20:43]ZF investors are continuing to hold their positions, mostly with patience.

[00:20:52]So, in practice, this indicates that the market may be building a foundation, reducing selling pressure and creating conditions for a more consistent recovery, okay? And that's a sign that we're expecting to see, which I talked about in last week's analysis, right? These are signs of capitulation. And one of the most important signs of capture is the sign of capture of whom? From the miners, right? What happens when this signal of miners surrendering is displayed? The price drops, and then people start coming back.

[00:21:28]Why does the miner capitulate? Why do n't you believe in Bitcoin? No, folks, because mining companies are businesses. The company needs to make a profit, okay? Yes, it's the same as my company. I can't live on love alone, folks. I need to make a profit, my company rafaelano.com.br needs to be profitable, okay?

[00:21:44]So there's no such thing as, oh, doing it for love, okay? People who do things out of love, right? Not even the girls at the job do it out of love, right? Imagine the rest.

[00:21:58]Imagine a market that's hungry for money. Imagine us, who are behind on our bills and have credit cards to pay, right? No, it's not possible, guys. This business of getting things done. Ah, that's because you're a good person. It's an NGO that does it, okay? A mining company isn't an NGO, right? Everyone's after money. Oh, you believe in the asset?

[00:22:20]I believe in the asset a lot. Okay.

[00:22:24]But you just need money.

[00:22:29]He needs money. Yeah, I spend well, okay? I spend well. I spend well. I like to live well. I like to eat well. It's obvious, isn't it? Because of the child's small size. Well, I like using my creams, I like using my perfumes, you know? I like going to the gym. Yeah, I like, I like those things. I like buying books, I like buying Lego. Do you have any idea how much a Lego set costs? So it's expensive, it's good that you don't pay the bill. He never paid. He never paid, okay? Hey Black, good afternoon, my dear. All good? So, this is the introduction to today's topic.

[00:23:07]We'll probably talk about it, I'm analyzing the miners' data, okay?

[00:23:12]We'll probably talk more about this tomorrow or next week, okay? Depending on the updates there, because the data is quite slow, it 's not as fast as the graphical data, for example, right? So, guys, here in this first little chart that I brought for you, okay? Okay, let's recap a little bit about the Bitcoin drop between May and June, shall we? That she was influenced by the tensions in the Middle East. Well, Bitcoin plummeted, if my memory serves me right, by about 22%, while oil and gold went up, right? So, this reflected investors' search for assets that are considered safer in some ways, right? In a world where it's super risky, you know, where to die you just have to be alive. Well, we have assets that are considered safer, okay? Bitcoin is not among those assets. You might think it's a safe asset, right?

[00:24:17]But if you're going to keep, for example, an emergency fund there, etc., I really love Lego, okay? I really love Lego. I like video games, I like books, uh, I collect them, uh, I have a collector's book, okay? Ah, the Star Wars stuff, that kind of thing, I have it all. I just don't have many action figures, you know? I'd love to buy more figurines, would n't I? So, what exactly are we, Zominho? We're just kids, right? We're like kids with adult money.

[00:24:49]Yeah, that's what we are, okay? Oh, guys, everything looks like things are going to get really exciting tomorrow, okay? Things are going to get really wild. I'll try to get at least 50 from the raffle to give to about three people. There's enough for everyone, right? 50 bucks. It's OK. I'll pay soon. I'm not going to talk. I almost, I almost spoke. I have to hold on here. Hey, Augustoche sent us twenty bucks.

[00:25:16]Little cow, if you want to weave it, if you don't want to, it's yours. I'll decide. I'll decide. I'll see, let's see.

[00:25:22]Let's see if I'm feeling kind today. I do n't think I'm feeling very well. Only 33 people live. Are you crazy? Lega, lega. Too good. AND.

[00:25:30]So, guys, that was the context of the situation there, okay? So, the peace agreement, okay, that you were discussing, between the United States and Iran, changed this scenario very quickly, okay? Well, the price of oil fell from 86 to 76, okay? The figures might be outdated, guys, but I'm going with what's in my head, okay? Well, gold lost some of its safety premium, and Bitcoin ended up regaining momentum. Then we went to the track between 65 and 67, right, from Tuesday's live stream.

[00:26:08]So, the main new thing we have now in this context, okay? I'm not going to do a complete geopolitical analysis, nor a macroeconomic one, but this is important for us to provide context for the analysis. The main new development is that the geopolitical risk that was putting pressure on risk assets has started to disappear, okay? So it's not a quid pro quo arrangement, okay? Oh, the deal came out today, man, forget it, forget everything that happened, okay? No, it isn't, it isn't.

[00:26:42]So, historically, this movement tends to favor Bitcoin, however, okay? Pay attention to this indicator here, which is True Market Me, okay?

[00:26:56]This indicator is the most important one, in my opinion, in my view, okay? And he urges caution. Why? It represents the average price paid by active investors. And where is this average price located? It's at 77,200, okay? That's about, I do n't know how to calculate it, I'm in the middle of about 15%, okay? I think it's around 13-15%, okay?

[00:27:24]Above the current price.

[00:27:26]So what does this indicate? Bitcoin is currently trading in a typical bear market zone, okay? A consistent recovery above that level would be a major sign of a transition to a new upward cycle, okay? So the transition to the bull cycle would be the test there in True Market Me, okay?

[00:27:48]It was at 80,700 and dropped to 77,000, okay? And then there was the confirmation when it was 80700, right, which was the previous True Market Me, okay?

[00:28:02]So, guys, uh, are you understanding? Good afternoon. Even though it costs twenty bucks, buy Pep. I'm going to put it on the SpaceX shorts over there. You're crazy. What's SpaceX's valuation today regarding this? Let's take a look.

[00:28:24][snoring] Ah, just let me answer Mrs. Neidoca here.

[00:28:53]Come on, let's take a look at SpaceX.

[00:28:57]Ah, ax. Is she a Todevs? Tod.

[00:29:01]What do you think?

[00:29:11]Oh, I'm going to tell you guys, okay? This place is a mess.

[00:29:15]Wow, how beautiful. Our. Our. Wow, it hit 172! What a beautiful pair of shorts I made. Thank you very much. It's cold because I 'm, I'm in that country too. The south is my country and I shall lack nothing. Well, it 's 3 PM here now, 10 degrees Celsius.

[00:29:34]It's cold, it's cold, it's cold. I'm wearing, I'm wearing one, I'm wearing flip-flops. I'm wearing slippers here, and, and, and, and with a little heater on my foot. Dona Maria is sleeping over there too. Let me see if she's cold.

[00:29:51]Let me just put it on. Let me cover Maria up here, just for a moment.

[00:30:09]Good afternoon, Daniel. Guys, if anyone needs a lawyer, okay? Anyone who needs a lawyer, anyone who needs to buy some handkerchiefs, okay? Some bibs, some sleeping cloths, some mattresses, all the hotel supplies, okay? The Budemer sheets, the Trusard ones, I don't know, Daniel does everything, okay? Daniel does everything around here. Sun and 32º. My God, Luciano, my God. That's good, it's good in your region because people go there and drink your beer, right? What's the name of your beer, Luciano? Send it, send it to me, uh, send it to me privately on Twitter so I can show your project to the guys, it's super cool. It is me.

[00:30:55]Exactly. Exactly. It's 29 here. God forbid. I like the cold, guys.

[00:31:00]I like the cold. I like it here, wearing sweatpants, you know? This is not a sweatshirt. This is actually a sofa cover, right? That I'm dressed as a sofa. Yeah, I like being at home like this, just chilling, you know? Curitiba, 3 PM. Is it sunny there?

[00:31:15]Curitiba is complicated, huh? [snoring] Curitiba is complicated. Let me know when you send it so I can share it with everyone, okay, Luciano? Okay, so guys, I've already changed it here, okay? I think SpaceX is the beginning of Musk's downfall. There are many ideas that promise to be, well, you know, like, wow, the SpaceX business, what is it? Uh, the IPO, right? In the IPO, they actually opened it up to retail investors because the money people already had access to investments there, okay? Even the Elusk employees had it. So, when does PO open, when does trading open on the stock exchange, okay? Yeah, they opened up negotiations more for retail, okay? So, it's an opportunity for people to make investments, right? And that. So, when an IPO happens, we can't really get a good idea of a company's valuation, okay? Well, that's why it was an inevitable fall. In the long term, I think it's obvious, it's a company that has a valuation, and will have a good valuation, in the future. But what do we need to have? We need to have an idea of ​​the price, of what it's really worth, okay? Because everything is so new now, it's short, it's short, okay? I even messed up a bit, I really messed up because I got so negative, okay? I think it went up to 240. Yeah, and my average price stayed around 205, okay? And now I saw it there, it closed my shorts. Okay, so everything's fine. Today we have, today we have, oh, today we have many things, right? I'm fasting, guys. Man, when I'm fasting, I feel really, really good, really great. Yes, it makes me feel very good. This place is wonderful. Heat, dust, and smoke. Rondônia has been having a tense few months. Wow, that's intense. It's intense, man. I went to, uh, I know that area, but I don't remember the city right now, okay? But going up into Mato Grosso is torture for me, because my nose bleeds all the time, all the time. I feel sick, man. My God in heaven. I spent about 15 days in Bahia once, working.

[00:33:36]Yeah, and I think I went to the hospital about five times. Bad, bad. My God, man. Yes, unfortunately that's how it is, I'm one of those picky girls, okay? Not that I'm picky, but my body is a bit of a mess, so it's complicated for me. Good afternoon, Chen Food. Have you made the green mayonnaise yet? The best dawn snack. The best snack in Rio Grande do Sul.

[00:34:01]Man, it's terrible for me. For me, it's terrible. I've travelled extensively throughout this vast Brazil. I traveled with my father, right? I used to handle a lot of cases when I was a lawyer, a lot of cases involving people who were arrested abroad, you know? So I had to travel. Back then, everything wasn't perfect, was it? Well, that part of the justice system, it changed quite a bit because of the pandemic, which was very good, but back then it was all pretty much analog, right? So it was kind of like that.

[00:34:30]But folks, let's get back to the on-chain analysis, okay? I talked to you about the True Market Min, I gave a little introduction to macro geopolitics, okay? We 'll discuss this further tomorrow.

[00:34:40]So, despite the recent recovery, okay? Those who bought Bitcoin in recent months are, on average, still in the red, okay? Uh, this short term, right, the MVRV, uh, with the price, okay, what does it measure? Well, I have a complicated name, but I'll simplify it for you here, okay? It measures the profit or loss of short-term investors, okay? So, the indicator rose from 0.83 to 0.90. So, there was an improvement in sentiment, but what happens? He's still below one, okay? So, one is the level that indicates a balance between gain and loss, okay?

[00:35:25]So, in practice, these investors paid around 72,600 per Bitcoin and they are still accumulating losses close to 10%, okay?

[00:35:38]That's nothing compared to those who saw their portfolios plummet by 80% during the pandemic, right? But everything is fine. Let's go. So, folks, this complements the previous scenario we talked about before, the macroeconomic relief, the price recovery, which reduced the pressure, but that's not enough to change the market structure, okay? No, it's not possible, it's not possible, okay?

[00:36:04]So, as long as this group doesn't return to profitability, okay? Many people might take advantage of the price increases to sell and recoup capital, right? So, it's like this: when I talked about that time in '78, it hit, it came back, it hit, it came back, it hit, it came back, why? There are a lot of sell orders in that area, okay?

[00:36:27]So, uh, uh, this creates an additional barrier to a more consistent appreciation of Bitcoin at this time, okay?

[00:36:40]Jeff said he made a donation, there's a raffle.

[00:36:45]Oh, nothing showed up here.

[00:36:49]Ah, Jeff sent this. Jeff sent it.

[00:36:51]Jeff sent it. Jeff sent it. But let's see the likes later, shall we? Let's see the likes. Okay, let's do it like this, everyone. Let's do it like this, okay? I, I need it, okay? If you want, I'll do a raffle for fifty bucks here, okay? R$ 50 for two people, okay? But I need your help. The names, okay?

[00:37:14]I'm not going to select the names during the live stream, so hold on a minute. Go back here.

[00:37:18]We're interrupting the programming for "I'm going to do it, and I'm going to turn fifty here for you guys, okay?" 25 for each.

[00:37:26]So, what do I need? I need engagement here on my Instagram, okay? That's ugly. I'll send you the link to my ReS post from yesterday, okay?

[00:37:45]So, whoever comments on the two posts I'm going to send here, okay? It's going to be a giveaway for one post, then another giveaway for another post, okay? Here, you can comment, like, retweet if you want to share it too, okay? So, I'm going to do a giveaway based on the comments on this thread, okay? And if you can watch the video until the end, I'll make another one here, based on this tweet, okay?

[00:38:17]From this tweet right here. Right? That's kind of bad there in terms of engagement.

[00:38:27]Yeah, Augustot always does it, there's a bunch of people who always comment, so a giveaway number 25 is going to happen here, okay? From Instagram and 25 it's going to leave here from X, okay? And thank you so much, Jeff, for donating, because he donated R$ 100, okay? So I'm going to take 50 from what Jeff sent to do two raffles for you.

[00:38:54]I only have the X, Rafa. I don't have WIG.

[00:38:56]Participate in X, then. No problem.

[00:39:00]Well, there's going to be one post per person, right?

[00:39:02]To be really, really sensible with everyone. Beware of Elninho.

[00:39:09]Elninho can come here, we'll kill him with a 9mm, okay? It's not in the coconut and the drum. Elon Ninho can come, Laninha can come, the grandchildren can come, the parents, the mothers, anything that falls into my territory is fair game. [laughs] I sent some information. Yeah, I'll go, yeah, okay, okay, Luciano. I'm going to finish here, uh, this, uh, this analysis from yesterday. I'm actually going to promote Luciano's business now. Let's talk about on-chain analysis; I'll share updates as they become available. So folks, this is the on-chain data, okay? In this analysis, they strongly emphasize that the recent recovery was not enough to change the market dynamics. Well, in all the indicators I've seen, okay? That's the little thing that keeps beeping for me, okay?

[00:40:09]So, uh, the indicator compares the profits and losses that were actually realized, okay? This shows that in the last month, investors sold much more at a loss than at a profit, okay? So, the 30-day average is at 0.53, which is displayed on the screen for you, okay? So there is a clear predominance there, okay, of realizing losses. So the average, right? When we look at the 30- day average, when we look at the 90-day average, we remain very close to equilibrium, okay? So it indicates that the market is still searching for a direction, but it doesn't have the strength to confirm a reversal. So, the main message is that the flow of capital remains typical of a bear market. So, what does it take for that feeling to change?

[00:41:13]We can see what's happening, but what needs to change?

[00:41:18]So, uh, in order for the feeling to change, okay? Well, and don't change overnight; it would be necessary to see these indicators advancing to levels that are historically associated with upward cycles, okay?

[00:41:39]So, it shows that investors have returned to realizing profits in a very sustainable way, okay?

[00:41:51]50k is a long way off. Look, on the way down, every saint helps, right? On the way up, don't go up, for God's sake. I think, I think it's closer, I think it's closer now that we're at 63, okay? From what I've seen before, back when we were testing the bottom of '59, Gil, I'm still here. Thanks, everyone.

[00:42:15]Then, at the time of the draw, okay? I'll wait and see everyone who commented during the draw. I'll give the guys another 5 minutes.

[00:42:24]Yeah, that's it. Here you go, folks. Hey, wait a minute, where was I? I got lost. Wait a minute. I got lost. I lost. I got lost. I was in room four. I was in room four here. Oh there. Now let's go to the top. And that. So, folks, besides, let me think of a better way to put this to you, besides investors realizing losses, the market is facing another challenge, okay? Capital continues to leave the Bitcoin ecosystem, right? No, it's not a matter of people selling to come back and try to buy later, it's that the capital is going out, okay? Yeah, he's leaving. And what's the good news?

[00:43:23]This movement began to lose momentum.

[00:43:25]Capital is leaving, but it's leaving less, okay? It's selling less. So, in the last 7 days, right? It's from last week's analysis to this week's, okay?

[00:43:39]Because I also like making these comparisons, okay? The drop was almost negligible. This suggests that capital flight may be stabilizing.

[00:43:51]So this greatly strengthens the scenario so far. The market is showing signs of improvement, but what does it still remain?

[00:43:59]In a downturn, in a downturn that probably hasn't bottomed out yet, okay? But this fund can be found again, okay? Beyond 59, going up to 54, as I told you, in a slightly more, you know, natural way, not so much with those, you know, like that. So, for a more convincing trend change, okay? Uh, uh, those three factors need to happen together, okay? So, Bitcoin will recover to the 77,200 region, and recent buyers will return to profit, right? And the capital flow returns to positive territory, right? So, remember when you said: "Ah, but it's because the indicator there... because the data came back positive, folks, you need a whole scenario for the pagode to happen, okay? It's no use wanting a symphony orchestra with a cavaquinho, just like it's no use putting only a violin in a symphony orchestra, okay? It won't work, okay? It won't work. A Vivaldi rave doesn't work that way, okay? No.

[00:45:26]Oh, oh, that's a really good one. That's not how the band plays. Oh, my goodness. Gia Plim.

[00:45:35]I need about R$ 380. If I win, I'll save it to buy a bitxi. Eh, come on, buy a K, son. Buy a K.

[00:45:43]Buy a Tangem, okay? Like a Tangem.

[00:45:48]There is, there's a link. I don't have anything to sell you, but I have a link here.

[00:45:54]Here, look, there's a partnership link there.

[00:45:58]There, look.

[00:46:01]Including, speaking of partnerships, folks, Etherfy card, if I'm not mistaken, if I'm not mistaken No mistake, it's in the last days of the iFood promotion, okay? Uh, you get the Etherfy card, uh, with my referral or some other influencer's referral that you prefer, right? Preferably, I prefer me. Uh, and when you order iFood, okay? It's 15% cashback. So, think about it, you order, and you order those chicken croquettes that cost R$ 50, right, on iFood, those who know, know, those who know, know. What do you order? You order a case of beer and you get 15% back. Z hit 44. Oh my God. I, let me see. I have, I have a purchase order there.

[00:46:54]Wait a minute, I'll fly here.

[00:47:01]It's that where are these purchases here, guys, I don't want to show you because the platform isn't paying me, right?

[00:47:09]So here it's just money in hand that you on the ground.

[00:47:16]I don't know where my purchase order is. No, but it didn't go through.

[00:47:21]I think my purchase order... It's down there.

[00:47:23]It's at 4037.

[00:47:25]That's my next buy order. I have an average price of 420.

[00:47:31]So that's good.

[00:47:33][snoring] Oh, okay, they say it's from the "black-faced beast" group to help me. And in the rhythm of a samba circle where I had to judge, there were Bahian women, Americans, Italians, people from everywhere, but the chosen girl was the cheeky Czech girl to samba. Hello there.

[00:47:56]Who, who, who knows this? Who knows this, type it in the chat, folks. Now, uh, we talked about liquidity, right? We talked about liquidity and liquidity is [laughs] oh, when your audience shares the same neuron as you, right?

[00:48:18]We here are 58 people sharing the same neuron. It's difficult. No, it's the tchan, it's not the, it's the tchan. It is, it's the tchan.

[00:48:27]Okay. No, no, it's not the same thing. It's not the same thing. Uh, folks, talking about Liquidity, right? There are six days left, six days left until the Etherfy promotion ends, guys, okay?

[00:48:43]Help us out, help us out. Sign up using the link, guys. It's the only thing I have, man. I don't have a course to sell you. How am I going to make money?

[00:48:49]Oh, my armpit itch.

[00:48:53]Uh, the liquidity is helping, it's not ideal, but it's helping, okay? So, for the first time in this vital industry of on-chain analysis, okay? A signal emerges that is more clearly tilted towards the positive side, okay? Much more so.

[00:49:12]So, after the drop to the 60,000 region, the Binance order book started showing a much higher concentration of buy orders than sell orders. Okay? So there are more investors, what? Uh, willing to buy at the dip, right? Because we don't need people buying at the top, guys. No, no, no, no, no. My God, no. I can't face this pain called buying at the top. I was just saying that to contradict, right? At the time, uh, at the time, in practice, okay? This means that the spot market is creating a support layer capable of absorbing some of the selling pressure and reducing the risk of new, uh, sharp declines, okay? This movement here complements the previous topics, right? Although the indicators still point to a bear market, the behavior of these buyers, right?

[00:50:23]suggests that the current levels uh are attracting demand, okay? So, alone, this doesn't confirm the market bottom. I don't want you to think that way, okay?

[00:50:39]But it increases the chance of stabilization, right? It can serve as a base for a more consistent recovery if the other indicators also improve, right? Although I think there are still uh, there are still declines coming, the declines will be smaller, okay? Smaller, gradual, etc. Right? But the indicators are already starting to improve. So it's different from the market falling infinitely, okay? Without any, without any, without any positive business that doesn't Let us know that it's going to fall, that it's going to hit rock bottom and come back, okay? A little jet, a cheapskate, and a bunch of nonsense, part of the democratic rule of law. I'm going to put, I'm going to put the plane of the prostitutes on tomorrow's cover. I'm going to put, I'm going to put it, it's like Chaves. If it was Discord, take a look at BTC, the Txo P rate, one moment or on cha? I'll look now.

[00:51:48]Uh, spot order book, okay? That's it.

[00:51:51]Great. I only know about the barbecue, chimarrão, fandango, lots of women. That's what the old man likes, that's what the old man wants. And the women, I'm passing by, okay? The women, I'm passing by, really, I was born by cesarean section so I don't even get close, okay? But uh, the fandango, the drink, the chimarrão and the barbecue, I'm in, okay? And I'll be in to everyone who wants it. And folks, the number of views is increasing, okay?

[00:52:23]Information to everyone, right? What? What? There's going to be a giveaway on the live stream, okay? There are two giveaways of R$25 each, okay? R$25 each. And we have instructions here in the chat on how you can participate in the giveaway. One giveaway will be through comments and likes on this post, okay?

[00:52:47]Look for it in the chat. And the other will be through comments and likes on this post here on X. Oh, I don't have X, go to Instagram. Oh, I don't have Instagram, go to X. Oh, I don't have either. Unfortunately, there's nothing that can be done, okay? That's it. Yes. Yes. It's us, Gilson. It's us, Gilson.

[00:53:08]I really like the name Gilson because it reminds me of Frei Gilson, and I really like Frei Gilson. He was with me for 40 days at dawn, right? Because I'm all in with everyone, you know? I'm all in with everyone. I'm all in with Jesus, I'm all in with Buddha, uh, I'm all in with the orixás, I'm all in with everyone. world. Anyone who wants to, okay? Anyone who wants to help, okay?

[00:53:29]Especially Archangel Michael, who has a big sword, right? A big sword, uh, which confirms that not everything is resolved through conversation, okay? Uh, I want, I want everyone's protection. Thank you very much. Uh, folks, here, folks, and it's like that song from Iron Man by Gus Roses, okay? By Gus Roses, uh, where he asks you to have a little patience, just, okay?

[00:53:57]And, I am everything, son. I am everything. I am, I am everything. I am everything.

[00:54:01]Actually, what happened, okay? I distanced myself quite a bit from the religious environment, okay? From religion itself, from religious dogma, okay? Because in my conception, okay, in the knowledge I have today, in my conception of God, okay? That God for me is only one, in my conception of God, the religious dogmas, uh, uh, they religious, uh, they, uh, and they They alienate, excuse me, they alienate people's minds, okay?

[00:54:35]So for me, right? Any dogma, anything imposed, is a freedom that we lose, you know?

[00:54:45]So, I believe in a much greater God, I believe in a much greater spirituality. And I think that religions, right, they are the biggest matrices that exist today, okay? That's my understanding, right? I respect everyone 's particular understandings, but that's mine, right? And I have no problem talking about it. Talk about how to make Bitcoin go up. Ah, the problem, the problem is that it doesn't serve that purpose, right? That's the problem. We can't have what we want. I mean, it's possible to have what we want, right? But then we'll have to compete with a lot of people who are praying for Bitcoin to go up, including me, and for Bitcoin to go down, including me, right? Then there's an information overload. What does God do then? God doesn't have a favorite. No.

[00:55:42]Oh, oh father, oh father. That's it. Eh, Henri Cristo died, right? You ca n't have everything in life.

[00:55:52]Come on.

[00:55:57]There, [laughs] that's the question.

[00:56:01]Ah, there, there, that's where the problem lies, I'm beautiful. Wait a minute.

[00:56:08]There, look. It's not possible, it's not possible. You can't do voodoo when you're shorted. It's good, everything is good.

[00:56:20]So, folks, here, as Gans Roses would say about accelerations, the flow data shows that the recent recovery of Bitcoin is not being driven by a wave of optimism or leverage, okay? After that last strong drop we had at the beginning of the month, now in June, in this case, okay? The speculative positions, as I said in Tuesday's analysis, have been greatly reduced, okay? The futures market is relatively neutral, okay? Eh, there's no excess of buyers, there's no excess of sellers, right? So, it's in the middle.

[00:57:03]So, Well, even when we were talking about liquidity earlier, this strongly reinforces the previous point about the spot market, right? About the liquidity of the spot market, because there is demand, but the demand is discreet, okay? Don't be fooled. So, instead of chasing the price, what happens?

[00:57:21]Investors are placing buy orders at lower levels and absorbing this supply with what?

[00:57:30]With patience, guys. With patience, okay?

[00:57:33]So, the positive side is that this accumulation, which is happening slowly and silently, right? It helps create support for the price, okay?

[00:57:47]So, the negative side is that there is still a lack of aggressiveness from buyers, okay?

[00:57:54]A stronger sign of recovery, I believe, in my view, would be to see spot market investors buying more actively, okay?

[00:58:06]No, no, no, not just buying once, okay? Buying actively, like, returning to a DCA, to something more consistent, okay? Like that, then... "Uh, uh, keep up with that, right? That's accompanied by increased demand in futures contracts, okay? Because one has to go hand in hand with the other, okay folks? It's not that we don't need futures, we just need spot contracts. One has to walk side by side with the other. He died and didn't come back to life. Yeah, that's right. That's right. If the stone, if the stone didn't roll and the man did n't come out of there, I rooted for the fall. I already messed up completely in '21, I didn't kill anyone.

[00:58:52][laughs] Oh crazy, yeah, oh folks, uh, Federal Police, this is no joke, okay? The man is alive, man. I already killed Fafá de Belém.

[00:59:03]Me, and I killed Dercy Gonçalves, I really killed her because one day I said: 'My God, this woman won't die anymore, ' the next day she died. Uh, irritated there at his farm being looked after by the young servants. And you think, you think it 's bad for the man? Everyone makes fun of the guy, okay? But bad." It's tough for us. It's bad for us that we have to stay here watching the chart, okay? But, but we don't need to keep watching the chart, okay? Now, now, now I'm going to do my, now I'm going to do my commercial. Now I'm going to do my commercial, folks, because in case someone doesn't have time to follow the chart with such eagerness, right? One of the channel's partners is what? It's OneBUEX, okay?

[00:59:48]OneBUEX uses artificial intelligence strategies, right? Of course, it's not always 100% winning, okay? But you can use the 300 Spartans, okay? There are even World Cup activations. I'll post a video later today, including what you can use, okay?

[01:00:11]You put in the value you want, you also edit the leverage, etc., in each operation. And the people developed bots with artificial intelligence, okay? Including this one from Mr. Crypto. Here, uh, is where I'm going to actively participate in this World Cup business with Mr. Crypto, especially since I did a live stream with the guy, right, with Mr. Crypto himself, here on Wambuex's social media, who created this thing here, okay, folks? So, if you're interested in this type of trading, people who don't have much time to analyze, okay? See if it makes sense for you, for you to put some money in, take a chance, right, guys? It's good.

[01:01:04]I was rooting for Check today. [laughs] [snoring] Henrique Cris didn't die like Jamanta, he came back to save us.

[01:01:12]Maria has, Maria Antonieta, my dog, she has an outfit that I call Jamanta because the sleeves get too big and then she walks like Jamanta sometimes.

[01:01:23]New genetic therapies should be coming soon.

[01:01:25]Dying will be optional, you just need millions to pay for them. But like this, we're going to live in What a situation, right, Bárbaro?

[01:01:32]Because it depends, it depends on the situation, right? It depends on the world situation. And we 'll still have shopping malls, right? We'll still have shopping malls, uh, what's going to happen, right? We'll still have some Rivotril, we 'll have to make do with passionflower extract.

[01:01:47]These are important questions, right?

[01:01:49]Because depending on the scenario, I'd rather not, right? I'd rather not reach the end of my life at 80. 80 is already good, right? Although, 80, 80, I don't think even God in heaven or on earth could make you last until 80, right?

[01:02:03]But, right? But, yes, these are questions I ask myself, right?

[01:02:08]In what scenario? In what scenario to live forever? In what scenario, right? Because people question it a lot, right? Wow, Dracula, right? Dracula, who lived 1900 years, was filthy rich. But, come on, to live that long, you don't have, you If you don't make money, well, well, well, you really have to kill yourself, right? Because imagine living 1900 years being poor. It's impossible, it's impossible. And by the way, they're building a Dracula theme park, you know? I'm going, I'm going. It's my third trip.

[01:02:39]It's the third dream trip, right? The first one is with Andreia Borel, right?

[01:02:45]Andreia Borel there. Uh, the second one, right? Is to take that cruise, I don't like ships, but anyway, I watched Titanic, right? Uh, but to take that cruise that goes over the tip, that goes over the mountain range there, the Cordillera dos Anjos, right?

[01:03:01]Because the mountain range, in fact, it starts there in Antarctica, right?

[01:03:05]It starts under the sea, there's a cruise that makes that crossing there. And the third one, ah, is to visit Dracula, right, in his country. Ah, why do n't you go to Poland to see Santa Claus? Ah, Santa Claus, screw him, Okay? It's been a few years since he brought me a present, so, I don't care, I don't care. I don't care.

[01:03:27]Let's get back to the analysis, folks.

[01:03:29]Uh, uh, I was on set. Yeah, I was on set. Now let's go to the eighth slide here. Let me just open my big slide here so I can read it. [snoring] Uh, so, folks, the reduction of fear in the market was so intense that it created a common situation, okay? The volatility expected by investors was lower than the volatility that Bitcoin actually showed in recent weeks, okay? In other words, okay? To put it simply, the premium paid for protection during the fall was practically 0.00, okay? It was 0.00.

[01:04:21][snoring] So, while the recent fluctuations were still significant, the options market has started pricing in a calmer scenario for the coming months, okay? So this reinforces the narrative that has been built up to now, the exit from geopolitical risk, okay? Up to this point, I'm saying in my Analysis, right? The exit from geopolitical risk, the improvement in liquidity, right?

[01:04:49]The silent accumulation. All of this reduced the perception of danger. This is not yet a sign of a bull market, okay? Of course not, but it begins to show that participants believe that the phase of greatest turbulence may be behind us. So, expecting more controlled price movements from now on. But understand, understand?

[01:05:18]More controlled price movements, not that it will start to rise from now on, controlled movements even in the fall.

[01:05:26]Because I repeat, I say and repeat to you, I believe in a fall until 54, okay?

[01:05:35]Because I believe it will happen.

[01:05:37]Certainly not. Certainly not. Because I also believed, right, that at this point in the game I would also be super retired, right, traveling the world without working, right? The problem is, I can't stay without working, okay? And then to travel the world becomes kind of impossible because there are some towel heads out there, right? And, and So, am I going to get in the middle of all these people?

[01:06:05]Yeah, no way. Just a second, guys.

[01:06:07]I have to answer a call over there, uh, a minute, I'll be right back.

[01:06:23]Hi, sorry everyone, it's just that the laundry delivery arrived, right? And if my beloved comforter didn't come back today, I'd have a fit, I haven't been able to sleep properly.

[01:07:17]Good afternoon, dad. How are you? This crypto purchase logo looks like a chainsaw.

[01:07:28]What friend, what, what are you smoking? Depending on what it is, you send me a DM and I'll want some too, but just between us, okay? Nobody's listening, [laughs] Rafa. But they're harmless.

[01:07:48]Arabs are good people. No, those who are in Europe, no, no, no. I like to travel to see old things, okay, guys? I like museums. I like museums. Uh, I like art, okay?

[01:08:00]You might think not, right? Just because I drink Campari with Dreyer, Right? What I don't like, but I really like it.

[01:08:07]I really like it. If you want, if you want to take a trip, okay? No, it's not for nothing.

[01:08:15]My dog's name is Maria Antonieta, right? So I like to see old things, Rafa. I believe in the young people. [laughs] Me too.

[01:08:26]Just don't mess with their religion. But me too, right? Damn it. But then they can mess with ours, right?

[01:08:34]For me it's a joke. For me it's a joke.

[01:08:36]They shouldn't come here to my city, because if it falls, falls, falls on my grass, it's a bullet.

[01:08:46]It's true. I mean, sometimes not. I do n't know what. Uh, I have a friend who travels the world while working as a graphic and visual communication designer.

[01:08:55]It's a dream life. He's been to 100 countries. It's my dream. I only know 33.

[01:09:01]34, isn't that right?

[01:09:07]That's it. Yeah, that's the big problem, because there are people with towel heads. And he has a towel for a head, right? Because, man, if it were the prince from Saudi Arabia, oh my God, right?

[01:09:21]I told the Arab, I want to talk to you, Rabib. [laughs] [laughs] Oh, oh, this business of peteco, petec, peteco, causes problems, you know? I don't know if you know, but I 'm not a first-time offender, precisely because of that. Uh, I already talked about this slide here for you guys.

[01:10:03][snoring] OK. This is the one I want, okay?

[01:10:10]Ah, another signal, another signal, guys. We 're almost done, okay? We 're almost done. Ask how much the esfirra is. I don't like esfirra. I don't like Arabic food. Do you like it? I don't like Arabic food or Mexican food.

[01:10:27]Which one?

[01:10:29]No, I'm lost. I'm lost. Since we, since we got lost here, guys.

[01:10:35]Uh, no, I'll announce Luciano's thing later, while I wait for the guys, uh, the guys Follow the rules for the raffle. Guys, there's going to be a raffle, okay?

[01:10:46]Fifty bucks here on the live stream today, right? 25 for each person. Uh, one raffle will be done through this post, okay? On Twitter, comments, likes, and shares.

[01:11:01]Uh, and another will be through this Instagram post, okay? You can participate in both, no problem at all. Uh, and participate. That's it. Slide.

[01:11:12]No, I j Oh, I've already found my way around here. I've already found myself. Hey guys, there's one more, that 's two more here, okay?

[01:11:23]So, folks, here's another sign of normalization that we have, and it comes from the options market. So, during that last, sharp drop in Bitcoin, okay?

[01:11:38]Investors rushed to buy protection against further declines, namely put options, causing the cost of these operations to skyrocket. Yeah, it's not "putas," okay? Don't get your hopes up. So, in recent weeks this demand has decreased significantly.

[01:11:53]Well, I wouldn't say exactly how much, but it was significant, okay? So, although the search for protection is still above pre-correction levels, the panic has practically disappeared, okay? So this indicator here reinforces what we've already seen in the previous topics. The market remains cautious, but the extreme fear is a thing of the past, okay?

[01:12:22]Investors are still maintaining a defensive stance, right? But it wasn't the urgency that was being observed during that period of greatest stress, okay?

[01:12:35]So, in practice, the current scenario is one of stabilization. The market isn't showing enough confidence to bet heavily on a rise, is it? But he also lowered expectations for further sharper declines, okay? And regarding new sharp drops, I mean, no, it wo n't fall, okay? Because I'm going to repeat the good one again, right? Redundancy. Yeah, I still believe in 54, okay?

[01:13:07]But this drop won't be abrupt, right? So, there's time for shopping, right, for calculating the average price, uh, and, and, and, and everything, I'm all messed up there, okay?

[01:13:20]Last slide here, folks, and a few more moments to enter the raffle as well. Ah, the options market, okay, it shows that the equilibrium between the two is increasing, okay? So, in the last few days, buying put options led the way, but bets on the price going up are practically tied now, right? So, the market is in equilibrium, this change here is reflected in the range of products displayed on the screen for you, because what does it indicate? Indica eh regions, okay? Where the involvement of large players is high, it can intensify the current price movement, okay? The main drawback is around $68,000, with a relevant range of 66 and 71, okay? So, Bitcoin trades near 60, between 63 and 65, right?

[01:14:21]This region, it can function as a critical point, okay? So, if the price moves up there, the activity of the dealers, right, can increase volatility and suddenly accelerate market movements, right? Well, that just reinforces the idea. Well, for people who don't know me, I speak incorrectly on purpose, okay? So this reinforces the idea that the recovery is gaining traction, but there's an important technical zone to overcome before a more solid consolidation, okay? Average price. That's the wizard speaking.

[01:15:00]I miss you, wizard.

[01:15:02]A big hug to the wizard. So guys, uh, the, the, and, okay, okay, but, but, so what, right? Okay, okay, but so what? What do I say in the conclusion of any on-chain analysis? So, ah, the scenario, okay, the scenario is much clearer now than it was last week, okay? The worst of the panic, the panic itself, seems to have passed, but Bitcoin has not yet confirmed a new upward trend. Money stopped flowing out with such intensity, liquidity improved, fear decreased, buyers are accumulating, okay? But on the other hand, the newer investors are still losing money, right? And the main indicators that I use for my analysis are still showing a bear market, okay? So, uh, the pessimistic scenario, right? The recovery is losing momentum, and investors are taking advantage of the rise to close out their positions.

[01:16:05]Bitcoin, it's unable to overcome the main resistances. There's no consistent inflow of capital there, so the market might retest important support levels, and in that test, in those tests, uh, you know, bam, 54, and then we, bam, buy, and then we, bam, make a ton of money, and then we, bam, retire.

[01:16:31]That's the optimistic scenario, right? It's what many people want, the silent demand, okay? Let's set the scene. This is a silent demand, right? It turns into more aggressive purchases, okay? While things are still hesitant, the flow of capital will start to grow again, and Bitcoin will recover to key levels, okay? So, a gradual transition begins from drinking marketing to a new upward cycle, right?

[01:17:00]The support, support is number 59, okay? 59.

[01:17:06]So, uh, what am I waiting for, okay? Well, between 59 and 60, folks, it's about support and structural loss, okay? So, I'm expecting the loss of structure, right?

[01:17:22]I am still waiting for a capitulation from the investors, not just from the citizens.

[01:17:35]Large, refined Castanet. Cascão. Rafa, is your main indicator the one on your left hand or the one on your right hand? Well, it depends on which one you have the credit card from, right? Because we catch it like this, see?

[01:17:48]Pa, pa.

[01:17:52]Well, it depends, it depends. I can use both. I can use both, right, guys? Okay. The critical zone is the region from 66 to 71, right? And the confirmation of strength would be, at least, the recovery of the 72, right? And then it's followed by the 77 region. Yes, yes, that's the minimum, okay?

[01:18:19]So, I'm not expecting infinite highs right now. We're currently in a point of market equilibrium, okay? I believe in further declines. Well, these drops are going to happen a little more gradually, right? Degar. I wish it hit 54 today so we could buy some and then we'd get shots, vodka, cigarettes, and all that stuff.

[01:18:47]Guys, let's go to the draw. Who's already participating in the raffle? Speak to us, speak to us, speak to us. Let's go here. First, first, first, first, the drawing here. Oops, this isn't the one. Just a second, just a minute. First, we're going to do the Instagram giveaway here. There's still time for those who haven't commented yet, okay? I'm going to open it here, I'm going to open the duck website, right? I'm going to open the duck website here.

[01:19:42]Let's make the list, and when I finish it, I'll refresh the comments here, okay? So, who's there?

[01:20:05]Let's go. First Augustoche.

[01:20:08]Rafa, it's been a long time. I can't watch the live stream. Kisses, Laurinha. I miss you, I miss you, I miss you.

[01:20:16]Put the code wizard in there, Rafa. Yeah, you have to comment, I'll get it from the Instagram post. Ah, you're here, I know you're here.

[01:20:26]You're here, I know I saw you. Wow, you became a commentator for SBT during the World Cup. Did you see? I didn't see it. I didn't see it. To be honest, I'm not even watching the World Cup, but I'll have to catch up, because it looks like we're going tomorrow. Marise, I don't know if it's live there. It has to be live, okay, guys? Bruno, who already had some people there who had commented. DJ Isaac.

[01:20:49]Duarte, Gerson, always present.

[01:20:57]Frávio, Food.

[01:21:07]No, you're not in this one, Code.

[01:21:11]Oh my, the woman is going to love this, isn't she?

[01:21:13]You're not in this one, are you? Oh, I'm going to refresh the comments here, okay?

[01:21:34]In this one, you're not going to participate, look. I will, I will be good. I'll wait a second while I smoke here and drink some water.

[01:21:46]Worth R$ 25, folks.

[01:21:50]Oh no, Augustoch isn't in this one.

[01:22:01]Augustote, comment on Instagram, son, otherwise I can't post it, right? Because what applies to one, applies to all.

[01:22:14]Marise is here.

[01:22:33][snoring] If I win, I'll bet on Trimania.

[01:22:38]Ah, Trimania is cool. I like Trimania. I really like trembling. It's been a while since I bought any. Good idea.

[01:22:42]Good idea. I'm going to buy a tremolo.

[01:22:44][snoring] Bruno, DJ, Isaac, Duarte, Gerson, Flávio, Chin Food. Is someone missing?

[01:22:58][snoring] Click on this Instagram link here, son. Here, look, this link here, look, it's in the chat. This is the last thing I posted on my Instagram.

[01:23:16]So leave a comment there. You have to comment there.

[01:23:19]You have to comment there. No, I can't, I can't make a different rule, guys. Unfortunately.

[01:23:26]Flávio is here.

[01:23:29]Let's go, guys, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go. That doesn't have until tomorrow. I have to close this up, I still have to edit a video.

[01:23:42]Jeff's going to use X. So, this one's from Instagram for now, okay, everyone?

[01:23:47]The other post from X is there in the chat. I'll send it to you right away.

[01:23:53]Hey, who's the code? The wizard of codes. And then it closed.

[01:24:02]1 minute.

[01:24:05]7.

[01:24:08]Let's put on our music.

[01:24:12]Our music. Let's go.

[01:24:18][music] โอ้ย [music] [music] [music] Who will win? Post your bets in the chat, okay? [music] [music] 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 [music] [music] [music] J [music] Aha.

[01:25:51]Hey, send me your Pixi key in private, okay?

[01:26:00]And now let's move on to the comments here on X, shall we? From X.

[01:26:05][snoring] And while people are commenting, I'm going to talk about the gossip here about Luciano.

[01:26:14]Here, just out of curiosity. Just out of curiosity, no, this is X's post for you to comment on, like, and retweet, okay, everyone? Those who participated on Instagram can participate here as well.

[01:26:28]Clear.

[01:26:33]No, but I wanted to, I need to make the list again, son. Okay everyone, let's put Luciano's thing on the screen while I give you a little break.

[01:26:53]This information here is completely free, okay? But if Luciano wants to send me around R$ 1000, that's fine, right? I'm accepting, I'll pick it up now. Go ahead, you'll have time to comment. I'm still being very nice. It's already 4:30. My God in heaven.

[01:27:15]Here's Luciano's project, folks, okay? I 'll comment and retweet it here in a moment. I'll comment on that in a little while.

[01:27:23]But what did he, what did he send here in private, okay? I'm going to read what he sent here, because his project is really cool. Let me put it on the screen here.

[01:27:31]Hey, hi Rafa. My brand is W Bear Cervejaria, a fully registered trademark since 2021 with validated products. We are creating and validating the new ones. Wald Bear means " forest beer" in German, reflecting our Amazonian identity. Well, on his profile, you know, I posted, he posted some articles there about the proposal. The proposal is to tokenize the brand and use it to leverage production. In return, bring real-use tokens and RWAs to the community, as well as share a pull for holders of NFTs and branded tokens. Our Instagram is W @waldbearervejaria.

[01:28:13]I'll put it here, guys, on his profile.

[01:28:17]The @ is Waldbear Brewery.

[01:28:22][clearing throat] The website is under construction, but it's valdir.com.br.

[01:28:31]Oh, and the brewery's profile, which you can also find on his profile, okay? He's been in the crypto market since 2012. Great, great Luciano. Great Luciano. Congratulations on the project!

[01:28:45]I want it, I want it. Success in the endeavor.

[01:28:49]Now we're going to take it here.

[01:28:53][snoring] Let's go.

[01:28:56]Wait a minute. No, I'm going to get it here by mine. I'll get it from here, guys, otherwise it'll tie my head in knots. Okay, Edit. Let's go. Luciano Bruno ate your ass.

[01:29:19]Daniel Augustoche. The gentleman in black.

[01:29:41]Cryptofy, Gerson, Shark, who else?

[01:29:53]Oh [ __ ], I'm lost. Wait a minute.

[01:29:57]Gerson Shark, João Filho Glácio, and once again, the best snack in Rio Grande do Sul. Oh, we already have snacks and we already have beer here. What's missing? There's a shortage of drugs, right? I'm just kidding.

[01:30:19]Sorry, sorry. Just kidding.

[01:30:24]R. Ok.

[01:30:28][laughs] Seven. Let's go, everyone! That's it, right? I forgot someone. There's still time.

[01:30:38]Damn, I'm going to have to make the whole list again. If I forgot anyone.

[01:30:44]I think there's been plenty of time for people to comment already, right? Let's go. Let 's go, everyone. Do you want the song from the cowboy trunk or do you want another one?

[01:31:05][snoring] I'm really going to put it in. He was.

[01:31:17][music] Good luck.

[01:31:24][music] [music] [music] [music] [music] 10 9 8 [music] 5 4 3 2 1 is the big winner.

[01:32:20][music] Can you imagine, Isaac, taking fifty bucks?

[01:32:25]I sent it to you, okay? The Pix payment for Isaac has already been processed. Hey Shark, are you there?

[01:32:30]We need to see if the guy is live, right?

[01:32:32]He's live right there. If it's live, uh, send the key, send a shout-out in the chat. Who is Shark? I don't know. He commented over there, and he commented here on Shark Crypto, look.

[01:32:59]Where's Shark? There you go.

[01:33:15][snoring] Yeah, it's you again. Lies, lies.

[01:33:31][snoring] Mom, send me back to be fair, okay?

[01:33:35]Send it to me again from your profile.

[01:33:40]Please send me your Pixa key again on my Twitter profile.

[01:33:46][snoring] Ah, the animal is noisy today, huh? Damn.

[01:33:51]Congratulations. Congratulations.

[01:34:33][laughs] I'm waiting, I'm waiting.

[01:35:09]Beauty?

[01:35:11]Meanwhile, everyone, I wanted to thank you all for being here today, okay? Let's wait there until he gives the order. Hey, we have a live stream tomorrow afternoon. What are we going to talk about this afternoon? Tomorrow we're going to do macroeconomic analysis, we're going to do geopolitical analysis, okay? And tomorrow night at 9:30 during the Brazil game, everything indicates that I'll be doing a live broadcast, okay, on a channel, a prediction marketing channel, okay? So we're going to do a raffle, we're going to have a laugh, we'll see if Lip will participate too, to do a review, etc., and talk about the market and more analysis tomorrow night, okay? Let me see if he's already sent it. I'll try, I'll try to see if Cascão agrees. I can't do it. So just type it in the comments. Type it in the comments. I am DJ Isaac. Just to confirm for everyone in the comments, there's no need to send a private message because I already have your Pix key. Just type your profile in the comments.

[01:36:39]Come on, come on. And prediction marketing, right, folks? So, we're going to place our bets, because everything, in reality, is a big gamble. I'm waiting. I'm waiting. No, because I already have a comment there. I'll find out if it's the same profile or not.

[01:37:09][snoring] [snoring] Come on, just a minute. Leave a comment on the post, man. I am, I am DJ Isaac, otherwise I'll have to draw lots for someone else.

[01:37:46]Friend, [snoring] I have an appointment, please. It did n't show up here. Hey Bernardo, how's it going? He did n't show up.

[01:38:30]He's sending messages in the chat. There's nothing here. There's nothing here.

[01:38:49]Wow, I just noticed that Bruno's thing is here. There's nothing there. Not even here.

[01:39:07]Here, look. I am DJ Isaac. Beauty.

[01:39:09]He took. Yes, it isn't.

[01:39:13][laughs] We'll pay for it again, the same thing.

[01:39:24]Let's go. Oh, oh, he took fifty bucks.

[01:39:34][snoring] Guys, thank you so much. I'm going to ask you to leave a like and subscribe to the channel. I sent it, okay? There you go. Hey guys, leave a like and subscribe to the channel.

[01:39:44]We'll try to do giveaways here on the channel regularly. Of course I depend on your donations, right, everyone? Because no one's pockets can handle doing live streams for free and selling nothing. And not make money here, right? Oh, and tomorrow we'll have a live stream at 3 PM. Everything indicates that we'll have the broadcast tonight during the Brazil game, with prediction marketing and craziness and beer and camping, but I'll confirm for you tomorrow afternoon how it's going to be, okay? Well, when this live stream is over, I'm going to ask you to come back here, leave a comment that really helps boost my content, and I hope you have an excellent end to your Thursday afternoon. See you tomorrow. May God bless PTOR. Let's make money, and even more.