How Much Can United Spend? | Football Finance | No Question About That Podcast

Ajouté : 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]How much can United spend this summer?

[00:00:02]Will it be Michael Carrick and how much of FIFA milking out of the World Cup?

[00:00:06]That's the agenda for today on United Inc. with me, Ed, and that is him, Jamie, better known to his friends as subprime goals. How's it going?

[00:00:15]>> Yeah, very good. Thank you. I've had a few days away uh in Portugal. um trip was trip with some friends, swung golf club >> with various degrees of success, which is why this has been a little bit delayed after kind of like some of the work that we we've both put out over the last week or so. But yeah, got managed to top up the tan a little bit and now I'm back in London with the tan rapidly fading away already.

[00:00:41]>> Sad. Sad. You'll have to put some spray tan on. Very good. Yeah. I wondered whether you were trying to convince Matias Fernandez's people that uh Old Trafford is a destination. Yeah. No, >> exactly. You know, you can you can get all the sun you need for what five days of the year maybe.

[00:00:58]>> Or maybe you're visiting Louis Van Hal on the Algav, you know, where he's retired with his wife, I think.

[00:01:04]>> All right, we're going to get into it.

[00:01:05]You published a piece on what United can spend, can or could in theory, and what they might actually do, which is a nice breakdown.

[00:01:14]Let's let's think about where the extra revenue is coming from first before we get into uh the uh the fun bit of uh getting into football manager mode and spending it on everyone possible. So, we've qualified for the Champions League. The only doubt now is whether United finish third or fourth. I think in theory it could be fifth, but I think actually United need a point to secure third. Something like that.

[00:01:41]So, how much more money are we going to make out of the Champions League, Jamie?

[00:01:46]>> So, um, look, the the headline grabbing number will obviously be the revenue figure. Um, I think that will be just north of 100 million, and that's when you take into account all of the revenue stream. So to break it down, you know, there is obviously the Champions League broadcasting money or prize money, >> which is which is the big one and obviously is somewhat variable based on performance, but I think there is a a pot of money that you get just for being in the Champions League. You get a pot of money based on your coefficient and then you get a pot of money which is based on how many games you win and how far you get into the tournament. There's various kind of calculations and formulas that you can kind of compute the numbers and put in your own assumptions. But like look, I think the club will probably be hoping that they can get to maybe the quarterfinals at a stretch. Will they be budgeting for that? I doubt it. I think so somewhere in the region of about 65 million pounds which includes all of those pillars.

[00:02:45]>> Yeah.

[00:02:46]>> Is going to be >> It is quite a complicated formula, isn't it? because it the coefficient thing really does matter and also where you are in your pool. So, so it'll be the England pool rather than obviously Italy, Germany, France or wherever, right? uh and you get more from that and then obviously you get money for wins and draws more for each and your coefficient then determines how much you get from your pool and that coefficient is also it's both your UEFA co I think I'm right in saying this your UEFA coefficient so that's your performance over the last five years of which United has not been very good except for that Europa League final >> which we don't want to talk about and also where you finish relative to your peers So, who else is going to be in the Champions League? So, Arsenal City, United, then Villa, Liverpool or whatever mix it is for the the final two places. And then also, what happens to your peers if they drop out early? You get more, right? So, >> yeah, >> this kind of perverse thing where you want all your country mates, if that's a word, to fail as much as possible.

[00:03:51]Although, in this one, I think you're right. They're probably they're probably thinking hoping for a Champions League final and maybe budgeting for a first round knockout, but it's really hard to not at least get like you we're going to get eight games four at home and it's really hard to not get another two from a playoff at least. You have to be outside of the top 24 team tournament to not make it.

[00:04:15]>> Pretty [ __ ] You have to be >> like if Senna Lemons gets injured and an Anna comes back and plays then mate like >> he does his best to chuck them all in.

[00:04:24]Yeah.

[00:04:25]>> Yeah. I I only say that cuz I was scrolling social media today and I there was like a compilation of Andre and Nana errors and I was looking back at it and I was like oh yeah he like there was quite a few really really bad ones.

[00:04:37]>> Stinkers. Yeah.

[00:04:38]>> Yeah.

[00:04:39]>> The other part of it of course is match day. How much you like making per game at the moment? because it's really shot up quite a bit, hasn't it, with the new pricing.

[00:04:49]>> So, there's a load of moving factors within this and a lot of it is altered by the fact that we're not playing as many games. So, if you're if you're paying for a season ticket and your price hasn't moved, then like the price per game automatically shoots up. So, at the moment, >> the club are making somewhere between 7 to 7 million per game. that will come down next season with the ticket price increases that they're putting in terms of the ticketing policy, sorry, for next season. So, I think they will probably some be somewhere in the region of 5 1/2 to 6 million a game.

[00:05:23]>> Um, so look, with four home games, cautiously, I'd say like up to 25 million, I think, is probably a reasonable reasonable estimate. And then you've got the incremental sponsorship revenue going back to the initial question on on where's the revenue coming from. So the new Adidas deal came into effect this season. So even though we didn't qualify for the Champions League, we actually did get a bump up in the Adidas sponsorship deal and then there'll be another one next year which is an extra 10 million.

[00:05:50]>> Yeah. Yeah. For making it into the big leagues. Yeah. Well, well done, Michael Carrot.

[00:05:55]>> Ruben Amra.

[00:05:57]>> Yeah.

[00:05:57]>> Hang your head in shame. Still milking the payoff. Yeah. Well done.

[00:06:02]>> Yeah. Well, look and to to just round this off, there is also increased costs.

[00:06:08]>> So, whilst everyone looks at the kind of revenue figure and gets really excited, that's loads of money. Well, you know, the player wages as we know go up. Um there will be more match days which means more cost whether that's to just run the stadium, whether that's the hospitality offering, all of those sorts of costs kind of go up as well. So like look I I'm expecting an extra at least 60 60 to 65 million I think of >> in cost >> in sorry in overall profit. So they'll be kind of whatever the incremental cost is. So >> I'm expecting them to be making around about 250 million in EBITDAR. So when they talk about their guidance this year it's 190.

[00:06:50]>> You know I'd say at least 250 as a baseline. This is before you take into account things like betway. So look and I think you know based on what Jim Ratcliffe has has said publicly. So Jim Ratcliffe I think that is all going to go towards the men's first team. I know there's a conversation about the women's team but I think the reality is is that >> as we all know the men's team still needs significant investment.

[00:07:15]>> So as a baseline I'm expecting that 250 million to kind of be the the pool of money that they go with.

[00:07:22]>> Yeah. And I mean the increased cost is an interesting one because they've tried to incentivize contracts. Most clubs are doing that now. I think Paris Sanjan have an even more incentivized structure where they also pay based on the number of appearances you get in the season and stuff like that. I wonder whether United might start going in that direction as well. Hello Mason Mount. I'm looking at you.

[00:07:46]>> Extra 2 million quid next season for Mason Mount. Well done mate. Maybe you'll play a few games, but also United are facing a season in which they'll probably pay play another 20% more games or something like that. Might might even be more. I mean, there's there's definitely going to be eight in the Champions League. Let's let's assume at least 10 really because it's hard not to get that. And then went out in the first round of both the Carabal Cup and the FA Cup this year. Maybe they'll get another five games there and not not be so [ __ ] in that. That is another 15 games on the season. That' make a 55 game season. Can all those bodies hold up to it? Probably not. Means you need more rotation. As we've seen just from this game at Sunderland at the weekend, it's a bit thin in ter once you get past 12 or 13 players.

[00:08:33]>> So you need more players both for quality but also just numbers. So you can rotate successfully and not have a situation where you do in Newcastle uh be in the Champions League and then struggle in the in the Premier League which is a very real scenario whoever the coaches.

[00:08:48]>> Yeah. Yeah. And look and you see it quite often both in this country and elsewhere right and like look Liverpool is probably another example where you have a bit of a yo-yo up and down season because in your good years you put so much into it that you don't you can't necessarily follow that up. And I think there's this other point which is the players that are leaving the likes of Casemiro and the ones that are probably not going to be able to play as many minutes as they have done Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, Bruno, like I I do think he will probably start to have his minutes tapered.

[00:09:23]>> You know, that's the experience in your squad. So like how do you how do you replace that? And I think that's one thing that probably hasn't necessarily been talked about as much when you're looking at, you know, the midfielders for instance. Not many of those have actually had that much experience in the Champions League or in Europe. So they're not only kind of acclimatizing to Manchester United and everything that comes with that. It's acclimatizing to Well, they will also have to play 40 to 50 games in some way, shape, or form.

[00:09:53]>> Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, we're going to enter next season before the transfer market happens with just KBY Manu as our primary central midfielder.

[00:10:03]In the past, his body has broken down a little bit. Now, we don't know whether that was just fact that he was still growing and a teenager. That can definitely happen. But maybe he's just not robust enough. Who knows? We'll find out, right? But that's a hell of a risk.

[00:10:16]So, that will factor into how they're going to spend all this uh £250 million of a bit in the transfer market. So, I didn't ask you the question like how much in theory could United spend to keep under the rules? We've got squad cost ratio coming in. So, they can spend 70% of revenue on wages, transfer fees, and agents fees.

[00:10:39]How much could they spend in theory and how much realistically are they budgeting for?

[00:10:44]>> Yeah. So in UEFA there is a squad cost rule and that's what the Premier League is moving to albe it with a different target but the limiting factor will be the 70% squad cost ratio >> of revenue uh of football earnings.

[00:10:56]>> They do also have to take into account the football earnings rule for UEFA. So that limit of I think it's 50 million euros uh sorry no 60 million euros like 50 million pounds worth of football losses that's the maximum that you can have over 3 years. So again, like you can't go gang busters with this. Like you do have to kind of keep the reins on a little bit, but let's just use the squad cost ratio as as an upper limit cuz I don't think they necessarily want to run at a loss going forward. I think there's probably capacity for up to 400 million.

[00:11:29]>> Mhm.

[00:11:29]>> Now, I would be shocked if they went that far. Um, one, >> I just don't think it's a good idea strategically. Mhm.

[00:11:39]>> Two, as we always talk about, like whilst cash is still, >> it's not as big of a constraint I think as it has been, but it is definitely still a consideration and we can talk about things that they might do on financing to kind of open up more avenues of cash. But yeah, I think that the absolute upper limit is 400. I could see a scenario where when you factor in things like player sales and maybe just what be negotiated like I could see them pushing 300 but I think even if they did that it's not going to be like you're spending 100 or 125 million pounds on one player they've still got to on a per player basis they've still got to be very disciplined.

[00:12:17]>> Yeah. Uh I think that's right. I mean they do owe 190 something million this year on on previous transfers. Ratcliffe has obviously talked about that in the past uh in not exactly glowing terms that they're trying to sort that out obviously. I mean I guess if cash was no problem right if they had a state there they would they would probably negotiate lower fee to pay up front it's not going to make any difference in the accounting terms it would just be cash that's sure what city do to some extent they won't do that they are on that schedule with those payments they have to make them and then in terms of incomings well we know that Hland will be done Napoli are qualified basically and so that's a nearly 40 million extra although obviously spread over a few years. They mortgaged some of their future payments uh last time out. I don't know whether there's any capacity to do that again.

[00:13:09]And then they expanded their Bank of America revolving credit facility as well. I mean that is debt. So there's interest to be paid on that. And then the other ones, what can they do on Xerxes and Ugate who I assume both of them will be sold. They don't feel like a good fit.

[00:13:26]>> And then Rashford is a live situation.

[00:13:30]He can score an absolute worldy of a free kick if anyone hasn't seen that as the beckesque banger into the top corner. He seems beloved by his fellow teammates, but Barcelona playing hard ball on paying the fee because they have some other priorities. Need a new striker.

[00:13:47]>> Yeah.

[00:13:47]>> And all of that. So, we don't know what's going to happen there. And then I don't beyond that, it's not obvious where they generate revenue from sales.

[00:13:56]like they they haven't had enough youngsters coming through to give them a shop window to start commanding the city style 20 million for a reserve goalkeeper.

[00:14:06]>> Yeah.

[00:14:06]>> And so on.

[00:14:08]>> Well, yeah. I think like that in terms of the youth players, I think like maybe RadC VTEC is probably the one that if they were going to and because they're going to have to they wouldn't be making a decision. I imagine from his perspective he probably wouldn't necessarily want to be number two to Senna Lemons.

[00:14:26]>> Yeah.

[00:14:27]>> So like that may be one. But yeah, I I agree with all of those names in terms of people players that could raise funds. And I think you know on the point about financing, if I remember my the numbers correctly, I think it's about 180 million of capacity they've got left on the revolving credit facility. I think a lot of the cash that the club generates this year will obviously be going towards servicing those historic transfer fees and the and the glazer debt.

[00:14:55]>> And so I I think you know the financing basically means if they wanted to move early on a target I would not be surprised if they used a bigger proportion of the cash that they've got on hand in order to secure that.

[00:15:09]>> Mhm.

[00:15:11]>> Just as almost like a negotiating tool.

[00:15:13]And as long as they get the right deal price, you know, they've got I think they've got to be very careful about setting benchmark pricing and being, you know, whilst doing your deals early is great from a footballing perspective, there's the kind of negotiating side, which is do you want to put a flag in the sand too early?

[00:15:29]>> Yeah. Happened last summer, didn't it?

[00:15:31]Paid for Kuna and that's the benchmark price for Embumo and they end up paying more from forbumo than they'd really want. Yeah. I was just thinking about the squad. I mean there there has been some debate recently about Ahmad.

[00:15:45]Obviously he's not had an awesome season, but he is young and has a profile. They could probably take a fee for him. And that would depend on them having a view on Shay Lacy and whether Lacy's ready to step up to the first team. Technically he is, but with his body cuz he's had so many injuries in the past and is he mature enough and ready enough in a Champions League season? I'd be really surprised if they do that deal. But if they really really wanted to make some money, they could probably make a Gachoesque fee from him.

[00:16:15]>> Yeah. Like maybe I take for him as like this is one of his first seasons where he's been playing >> regularly for us in the first team.

[00:16:26]>> You're going to get going to get fluctuations in his performance. He's also had the AFCON. Like I think as to your point I think it would be a lot it'd be putting not an unnecessarily high amount of faith in Lacy but like from a squad risk perspective and like blooding him through he's played what one or two games for the first team.

[00:16:46]>> Yeah. Yeah. Hardly anything. Yeah. It would be a huge ask and and that fourth central midfielder if they're going to buy two and then have some kind of job share on the fourth central midfielder between the Fletcher brothers and Jim Thuait. It's a big ask as well in a Champions League season. They've just got to work out where the pathway is.

[00:17:06]Are they ready or not? Um, and then on outgoings, we didn't mention Mason Mount, who I mentioned earlier actually, who I'm sure they would sell in a heartbeat. Like I I know there are some supporters of Mason Mount, but it's three years and he hasn't performed, but he still has more than 20 million left on the immortization on his contract and he's on a massive wage with a Champions League uplift.

[00:17:28]selling him seems almost impossible I'd say for a fee at least and then Andre Anana who they will of course try and get any kind of fee for but he similarly has about 20 million I think maybe slightly less than that on the immortization on his transfer fee that might seem a difficult one as well cuz he also gets a Champions League uplift.

[00:17:46]Yeah, look, I think I think Onana would be a if you can get a break even or maybe like a small like if the Rashford option gets exercised or someone else comes in for Rashford, you can then maybe say, "Okay, we'll take a small loss on Ana just to kind of get him off the books." Mason Mount, I I just don't see a buyer.

[00:18:04]>> Yeah, it seems really hard. You could loan him out, but what would be the point? You'd be you'd be taking a hit on some of that. So >> yeah, >> Mason, time for you to actually step up.

[00:18:14]Especially if if Bruno's minutes are tapered. He needs to he really does need to >> play a role somewhere. All right. Well, that's that's uh where we might land in terms of our budget for the summer. One thing that has upped the budget is a training kit sponsorship. I don't think they're sponsoring the ground, the train Carrington, right? Training kit sponsorship with Bway. This has caused some constonnation. unsurprising I suppose both in terms of the ethics of having a betting sponsor when the Premier League is under some pressure removing front of shirt sponsorship.

[00:18:47]That's 11 clubs in the Premier League losing their sponsor for next season.

[00:18:53]But of course, they found other ways to do it like training kits and advertising hoardings and youth team kits sponsored by some kind of crypto scam betting scheme or whatever. So, there is that. I mean, Between is not one of these crypto scam ones where it's actually a company based in Indonesia who has a Gibralta license and doesn't operate in the UK.

[00:19:14]There are a few of those, but but but it has caused some debate.

[00:19:20]>> Yeah. Look, I and I get it, right? And I think the same could be said for alcohol brands >> that are sponsors to your point, the crypto, NFTts, all of that sort of stuff. I think look specifically for this one just to give a little bit of context you know like Bet Fred has been a partner um and I believe a global betting sponsor >> for years.

[00:19:42]>> For years. So I think there's been two stints I think one between 2006 and 2013 and then again since 2022 maybe.

[00:19:51]>> Mhm. So look, I and I don't I might be wrong, but I don't remember there being the same level of outcry when that got announced. And look, different. It's, you know, more local company, maybe more reputable, whatever. So like look, I get the morality argument, but you know, five or six months ago, I think there was a view that because these gambling because the the the bet on gambling sponsors on the front of shirt is that other sponsorship inventory would be bid up by those sponsors, whether it's shirt sleeves, whether it's training kit. And so it felt like that those those sponsors and those potential partners weren't going to come out of the market.

[00:20:32]And so, look, I I can't if I just put my finance hat on, I can't blame the club for saying, >> "Look, >> this is the best deal."

[00:20:44]>> Yeah, this is the this is the best deal out there.

[00:20:47]I totally get the morality argument, but like yeah, >> I think there has been multiple instances of similar types of deals in the past and it hasn't been the same level of >> I think this is just very visible and that's probably why it's created a little bit of constonnation. It's also not a blue chip brand and that's another interesting one, isn't it? There was there was a time when United really only had blue chip sponsors. They've obviously gone well away from that now and and this kind of feels like it might be the bottom of the barrel in some sense in terms of sponsors. The morality and ethical argument, I mean, I'm not against betting personally. I do have a bet now and again. We've done adverts for Sky Bet on here. I did turn a few down which were the take a free bet, you know, the the kind of tricks of the industry to suck people in and just did the brand ones. that's cost me us some money undoubtedly and uh probably and other potential sponsors as well. High ad agency I think they may be pissed off. So am I really against it? The thing I find a little bit troubling is the economics in the industry where it's very concentrated. So most of the profits are concentrated into a few people that that is well researched. So it's lots and lots of data and then a decent chunk it is about 1%. So does that you can tell me if you think it's a decent chunk is from people who are gambling addicted or have a gambling problem in some fashion right but it makes up a bigger chunk of their profits. So there's an argument you can make that they use certain gimmicks to get you in free bets and that kind of thing and then use their very fancy analytics to find the people who are most likely to be their most profitable customers and keep pushing stuff at them. There's a lot of evidence that that is true as well. Not of every company. I don't know a betways practices whether they do practice any of this stuff. I don't know enough about them but some companies certainly have done that. And so that's where the moral argument comes from. It's a bit like the the dealer on the street corner giving you a free baggie of Coke and saying come back next time. Isn't this good stuff sort of thing, right? It's not that far off that model. And and so that's where the challenge comes from, I think. And whether the industry has done enough is open to question, right?

[00:23:02]There's UK was ahead of other markets in in terms of opening up betting. It's very heavily coming to the US market >> now. And you see this playing out with young men especially who gamble way more than they can actually afford and get into trouble as a result. That will be the case with this sponsorship too.

[00:23:22]>> Yes. And look, and you know that there's the advent of prediction markets, which is a I hope >> Oh, no. That's not betting. That's a short-term financial contract, Jamie.

[00:23:31]Definitely not betting.

[00:23:33]>> Exact.

[00:23:35]>> I'm just putting my polyarket bet on when the uh the next phase of the war in Iran is starting.

[00:23:40]>> Yeah. Look, I as I say, I look, I I completely understand the arguments. I think it's a really tricky situation.

[00:23:46]And I look, I think on the blue chip argument in particular, maybe that is a signal to us as fans and to the market as where the club is right now. And look, the reality is there is not that much money to go around and continually reinvest in the squad. You know, people are happy with us not spending that much money and, you know, a longer turnaround period. That's kind of the quick program.

[00:24:08]>> Yeah. Yeah. That's That's the trade-off for sure. Yeah.

[00:24:10]>> Yeah.

[00:24:12]>> All right. So, uh, New Trafford sponsored by Liberty Financial coming up.

[00:24:18]>> No, Poly Market.

[00:24:19]>> Poly Market. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. There's quite a lot of crossover there, by the way. Anyone who wants to go find out about that, just Google. You'll find it fairly quickly. Yeah. All right. Very good. So, we've covered what United might be able to spend in the market. Uh I guess perhaps a bit nearer to the transfer market. We can talk about the breakdown in where they might spend that money. That'll be live. They will have many many options there. It looks like Michael Carrick will be offered the job.

[00:24:46]Likely a shortish term contract. I bet it's bet. There you go. Turn a phrase.

[00:24:52]It's something like a two plus one deal or something like that with a cheap get out if United don't qualify for the Champions League. That kind of thing.

[00:24:59]Maybe they're learning from past mistakes. Carrick won't be on a massive wage anyway. In fact, actually, here's an irony. He'll probably end up being one of the lowest paid managers in the Premier League just because his stat of his status in the game.

[00:25:11]>> Yeah. And all the training staff that will be around him, you know, the Steve Hollands, uh, Jonathan Woodgate, Johnny Evans, Travis Binan.

[00:25:21]>> Yeah.

[00:25:22]>> They won't be command, you know, it won't be the 15 million a year or whatever it was for Amarim's team. Yeah, that's very true. I would bet right now that they will add an experienced >> You're bet you can.

[00:25:34]>> I am. I can't stop saying this. I predict short-term financial contract that United will add another like they don't have to be older and more super experienced or anything, but they'll add at least one to that back room team, someone who's experienced in the Champions League at the highest levels and stuff like that just to support Michael Carrick. I wrote a piece for my newsletter last night after Sully should give him credit had announced that um it's like United are going to offer him the job. My thinking on this is that there weren't weren't really any other choices. Basically, when you get down to it, most of the big names are are contracted elsewhere. United is still a development project. A lot of the big names will be looking at that and going, "Hm, let's see where the squad gets to first." and that offering Michael Carrick a reasonably short-term deal is probably the most sensible thing given that the alternatives were either someone out of work or young inexperienced managers in European leagues like Sebastian Hearnes for example we've just been down that road with road with Amarim and Tenhog before him didn't work out orola or one of the or Glasnner or or Silva from the Premier League all of which come with risks so it doesn't surprise me the club have ended up going it's Michael Carrick we'll do at focus on the getting the transfer stuff right because that's actually much more impactful than if you build to a model which you can argue they haven't really done even though they said they would do >> that that's more impactful than the manager situation where they can just swap them out every two years if it doesn't work out but say hey we have a club star we're build buying players to a squad development plan that's more impactful than the coach issue >> to totally and I think that's the other thing here with like the bigname managers. Like I get the arguments for but then I just think that you're going to get a you you could easily end up in a scenario where if it doesn't all go to plan two years down the line you've got a Mourinho situation where TUL or Ancelotti haven't been provided with the squad that they kind of really need to show how good they are and they get frustrated and you got them. Well, Angelotti probably wouldn't throw his toys out of the pram, but you could, you know, you could easily see that that happening. And it's better the devil, red devil that you know.

[00:27:52]>> Yeah. And and look, over these 15 games, it'll be 17 by the time we close out the season. Carrick's proven to not be Leroy Rosenior, right? It's not Leroy, Liam.

[00:28:03]Sorry, that's his dad. Show my age there. Which Rosenior am I talking about?

[00:28:09]He's he's proven to be a steady hand.

[00:28:12]The the players like him. He has there's no drama with him. I mean, straight bats everything. You don't really get an answer out of him in in press conferences, but the media stuff is not causing the club a PR problem. He seems to have managed his squad. There's things you can argue about, you know, in terms of proactiveness in making substitutions.

[00:28:33]Team selection appears to be about right most of the time. Right. Sunderland was interesting, but a lot of his hand was forced there, I think, with injury. So, andor the Casemiro clause. Pick your conspiracy theory on that one. And so, it almost got to the point like it feels like it's more risky changing than it is keeping him. And >> the last point I'll make on this, cuz I know this is the finance pod, not the the football pod, is I think he's raised the floor to the point where I don't see it being a crisis. Right. Of course, it can change >> change with Ollie, right? But in in fact actually Carrick's record it's almost better than Ollie's when he came in in that there haven't been the massive ups and downs.

[00:29:13]>> Yeah.

[00:29:13]>> So he's raised the floor so it's unlikely it'll be a you know massive crisis. I think what we don't know is where the ceiling is. Is he the coach that has the brilliant tactical mind that gets the extra 5% that can win the biggest games and so on. We we don't know that at all and I think a lot of people suspect that is not the case with him but he's young.

[00:29:33]This is his like basically his third season in management.

[00:29:37]>> There's there's room for improvement.

[00:29:40]>> Yeah. And like Well, but it's to this point, do we need that right now? No.

[00:29:45]Like, >> right.

[00:29:47]>> For the next two years, if we if we made it to the Champions League quarterfinals for the next two years and stayed in the top four, and like when I say stay in, not fourth, but like second and third. and in brief patches look like we could have a title charge.

[00:30:06]>> I know there's mission 150, etc., etc., but like >> would we really be that unhappy about that? I don't think I would.

[00:30:13]>> No, I think I think it's reasonable. If we know social media is not reasonable, but if we're being reasonable with the squad as it is and what we can spend, third and a quarter in the Champions League next season would be an excellent job. It's just it's going to be very challenging with those extra games and losing a key player in casemir and having to fill out the squad. And so that that would be a great job for Michael Carrick if he does that. And if we get to the situation where it's like third and then fourth in the next two years and we're like, "Okay, maybe the ceiling isn't as high as we wanted. The cost of changing the manager, if you're building a squad with a consistent plan in mind, it's not that bad at all." And I I do hope they've learned from the Amarim situation where getting someone with a really fixed mind on a system and having to buy specialist players means you can't plan for several cycles, right? They did exactly what they promised they weren't going to do there and it was a big mistake and and of course people rightly can go well look they made that big mistake and they made the mistake resigning Tenhog. Why are they getting this one right? you know, and absolutely that is a a fair push back, but like if they actually execute on the plan they said they would execute on, spend the money they've got, we should be in a decent position in two years time. And look, I think there's there's a little bit of reading between the lines and tea leaves, whatever you want to say here, which is there was a line and I can't remember which interview it was, but Sir Jim Ratcliffe said at one point, look, when I stepped away from kind of day-to-day operations at Nice, all of a sudden things started to get better.

[00:31:49]Now, he's been in situ now for the more than a year. He's got his team in place.

[00:31:56]Typically, as you and I both know, at that stage of a, you know, private equity start, I'm not saying that this is what's happening, but in far off, but >> yeah, exactly. That that would naturally happen and you leave the day-to-day operations to the people in charge when a lot of, you know, the Dan Ashworth situation, um, the Amarim decision that was that was in a time when there was so much change going on and Sim Rackliffe was clearly having a big influence. Look, if he kind of lets his his people do their jobs, maybe there is a scenario where, as you say, they've learned from their mistakes and they kind of do know how this should work. They know how to derisk the overall plan. And quite frankly, that's all we need right now.

[00:32:40]Yeah. Yeah. And then the big one, the big thing that needs to happen is get recruitment right because that's that's what has driven the ISIS failure over the last decade. I mean, you can point to managers, but if they got the recruitment right, that all some of those managers would have been a lot more successful.

[00:32:55]>> 24 is a mixed bag. 25 looks extremely successful. So, Brian Bumo has had a tough second half of the season, but he started off the season very well. Kuna has been I was going to say he's been consistent, but he's probably actually from game to Dane that's not exactly true, but overall the level has been really high. I think Benjamin Cesco is proving to be an excellent purchase.

[00:33:16]difficult first half of the season and sign Lammonds has been absolute gold for 20 million pounds. So if they can replicate that again for purchases that work out we'll be in a very good position next season.

[00:33:28]>> Totally.

[00:33:30]>> All right. There you go. Go and execute on it. Elliot Anderson all you have to do mate is go I don't want anywhere else but Old Trafford and we'll get a reasonable price. If you're listening you don't want to go and play in the Championship with City. I'm just telling you. And just to add on onto that with a destructive midfield partner of uh Aurelian Chumeni maybe >> hey look I'd go to Madrid right now given All right last bit on this Chainy Valverie whatever denials it's brilliant this story one of them's going to leave surely can they really make it up it just seems if you have two fish fights in two days seems unlikely so but also >> one and a slip >> one in a slip absolely Absolutely. Yeah.

[00:34:16]Banana just Yeah. Yeah. But also, if they really are doing Mourinho, the logic I cannot get to. The logic seems to be there's so much infighting in the dressing room. They need a strong manager to come in and say, "Hey, I'm the boss, not Killian Mbappe." It's just that Mourinho has turned every dressing room toxic in the last 10 years. So maybe he's just adding fuel to the fire.

[00:34:37]We'll see.

[00:34:38]Also though with Mourinho Mourinho defended Pelistriani I'm getting his name wrong.

[00:34:47]>> Yeah. The Benfica player.

[00:34:49]>> The Benfica player who allegedly racially abused Venicius Jr. Now he was banned for six matches for using homophobic slurs. Not the the racial slurs. I guess they said he can prove it or something. How does Vinnie feel about that? because Mourinho, he defended his player there in quite strong terms.

[00:35:08]Venicius is entering the last year of his contract. He hasn't signed a new contract apparently. He was asking for more than Mbappe, you know, hey, slap a couple hundred million down, say, hey, would you like to do the deal, Real Madrid? I'm just saying it's an option.

[00:35:24]>> Well, it look it is interesting. I think one, you know, it will have his stance will have ramifications for the likes of Vinnie Jr. Mbappe who was also very vocal about that incident and Shuani for all for obvious reasons.

[00:35:38]>> It sounded like from the reporting the kind of divide in the changing room with Alonzo was I think Chuman and Mbappe were on Alonzo's side and Valver Vinnie Jr.

[00:35:52]I might have that wrong. But either way, them making this move is a clear statement that some people either have to change their tone very quickly or they'll be up or they'll have to leave.

[00:36:02]>> Yeah.

[00:36:05]Florentino Perez has said, "Hey, it's not my fault. I don't know why I'm getting criticism." Of course he did.

[00:36:09]You know, he's doing it perfectly. It's all someone else's fault. Yeah.

[00:36:13]Interesting. I mean, they've done some uh amazing things Real Madrid in terms of their revenue, highest in the world.

[00:36:20]the stadium re rebuild. They've built a brilliant facility that is generating huge amounts of money there. They've got world stars in most positions and yet this has been a a pretty disastrous campaign when it comes to their standards. They've been beaten quite easily by Barcelona team that is more than what 1.3 billion euros in debt and perpetually in crisis. How could this happen? Yeah. Oh well. It's good that the banter club is somewhere else at the moment. And Marino, I I love it. I mean, he feels like yesterday's band, but you won't be able to take your eyes off it.

[00:36:56]It's going to be absolute brilliant TV.

[00:36:59]All right, before we leave, World Cup is coming up in about a month.

[00:37:05]>> Scary Thought.

[00:37:06]>> Scary Thought. Yeah, of course there will, you know, once we get into the tournament, people will turn their attention to the actual football as always happens. Prior to the tournament, it's the drama around it. In Russia, it was Vlad and his various wars leading up to it. In Qatar, it was human rights issues. In America, it I I always suspected it would be the overcommercialization of it because that is just American capitalism.

[00:37:30]But it's there's a political dimension too as well cuz uh the president has inserted himself into this quite heavily. But we're going to talk about the finances. Here are some numbers.

[00:37:40]I've got some notes here. FIFA are predicting about 13 billion in revenue from this tournament that has been revised upwards twice. Uh this is it is up from about 7.6 from the Qatar cycle.

[00:37:54]Uh so it's going to be um very heavily revenue generating about 9 billion of that is attributed to the World Cup itself. So there's other stuff that that goes around it. 104 matches. So obviously lots of tickets to s sell FIFA claimed. Now, I'm saying claimed cuz h there were 500 million ticket requests.

[00:38:14]I think that's just people who registered on FIFA.com.

[00:38:17]>> Uh the 6 and a half million seats. That would tell you they were all oversold many times over. Just go on to FIFA.com, the ticket portal. You will see that is not true. You can buy tickets. They are still eyewateringly expensive, but you can buy tickets for many, many games, if not most. Where does that revenue come from? Uh about 4.2 25 billion is from TV rights. That's a billion up on the previous cycle. This is dollars.

[00:38:44]Interesting. This week news came out they still don't have a deal in India or China.

[00:38:49]>> They were asking for a lot of money apparently for those markets.

[00:38:54]>> That's about quarter of the planet.

[00:38:56]>> Yep. And two countries that infamously don't play that much football at the moment.

[00:39:02]>> Yeah, it's true. Um the biggest single TV deal is is with Fox and Telmundo in the US. universally panned for it just terrible coverage. It was so bad last time I VPN into the BBC. It I just It's unwatchable. Sorry, Fox, but you know, do better.

[00:39:18]>> Is that Is that what the pundits or >> It's it's the pundits. It's Alexa Lass.

[00:39:23]It's the style of um it's the style of presentation. They they had a nice studio on the waterfront in in Qatar.

[00:39:30]So, it actually looked nice, but it was sort of semi-digital, semi It was a bit weird. Uh, it's the American presenters.

[00:39:38]It just it's like you're like, "What?

[00:39:40]What the [ __ ] are you talking about?" It just doesn't make any sense to European ears. Um, but the punditry is pretty bad as well. They've got some decent pundits doing it this time around. I think Rebecca Low is actually fronting a lot of it and she is good.

[00:39:53]>> Okay.

[00:39:53]>> She does NBC's coverage. Yeah.

[00:39:56]>> Um, and they've got a few decent pundits and Peter Schmeichel.

[00:39:59]>> Sorry, Pete, but no, no. Although he had good I thought he was absolutely right on the West Ham Arsenal V thing by the way. So I don't always agree with him but I should I should uh I should do there. All right.

[00:40:12]So what else? Tickets more than $3 billion they're expecting or they're projecting in ticket sales. Um this is up quite a lot is up $2.5 billion in the previous cycle. If you go onto that ticket portal I mentioned right now.

[00:40:26]Well Qar, they sold them at reasonable prices, right? Well, actually, yeah, I and I I went and I I think I did 10 games in five days and every ticket was fine, >> right? I was I was on there recently looking at tickets here in Seattle, Qatar, to mention them again, versus Bosnia. The cheapest ticket is $500 in the nosebleleed seats at Lumen Field.

[00:40:47]It's a 70,000 capacity stadium. There's no way that is actually true, right? So FIFA are selling them in small blocks in order to create the perception of more more demand than supply when that is the opposite way around especially for some of these less attractive games at very big stadiums. Won't be true for all of them given dynamic pricing can go down as well as up as the club world cup the tickets here just cuz I know cuz I was looking fell to about $20. So, so like River Plate versus Interachian Allay was was about 20 for a 22man brawl. Great value. The most predictable brawl you could ever get. So, I suspect a lot of the less attractive games that will happen. Not with all of them. So, again, just anecdotally, here we have Belgium, New Zealand. I suspect there's going to be quite a few tickets for that one. Qatar and Bosnia definitely not going to be full. USA and Australia will be sold out. And then there's one, Iran versus Egypt. Um, Iranian fans obviously banned from coming, but there's a massive diaspora in LA who could easily sell out that stadium. So, I I wonder whether that one will actually be full. That's one to watch. Could be quite entertaining.

[00:41:56]Yeah. So, this has been a story of just massive commercialization. There's been a lot of push back both on ticket prices. Some local authorities are charging huge amounts for travel. In New York, you're going to pay over $100 for your 10-minute train ride to Foxbrra or not Foxbrra, to the Metife, which is in New Jersey. Something similar has happened in Boston as well with a train ride out there. Parking is much less than US sports and many of the stadiums outside the cities. You go drive and park. FIFA are using that for fan parks and, you know, stalls and stuff like that. So, you can't even really do that, which makes I I think there's going to be some really hard times for fans here.

[00:42:37]Some stadiums are right in the center of town. So, here in Seattle, if you're staying downtown, you can walk to the stadium, right? It's it's right in the center of town, basically. Just going to be much much easier for some places than others. But in New York, in Boston, the one in San Francisco is out in Santa Clara. It's not downtown at all. It's an hour and a half drive basically from San Francisco. LA is pretty easy to get to.

[00:43:02]They're putting on transport as well.

[00:43:04]Buses, taxis, whatever. Uber's cheap in LA. Not every city. Miami is not horrendous to get to, I believe.

[00:43:11]>> I think >> Atlanta I haven't been to, but I think it's not too bad. So, >> yeah. Um, LA, are they doing one in Vegas? I can't remember. In Vegas, you walk it. You can walk to it. It's just down at the bottom of the strip. So, um, I actually don't know whether they're playing any games in Vegas. Can't remember.

[00:43:27]>> It would be on brand if they were. Yeah, great town. Great town.

[00:43:33]>> Yeah.

[00:43:33]>> Anecdote here, Jamie. First time I went to Vegas, I ended up at 4 in the morning at the Frontier Hotel, which doesn't exist anymore. It's one of the old school ones, watching Bikini Bronco, looking with a friend and looking at myself going, "What the [ __ ] are you doing, Ed?" What life choices have you made that have led you to this point? Re reassess.

[00:43:52]>> Yeah, I I I've been twice. The first time I went, and I don't know what this really says about my parents, but the first time I went was when I was 10 years old.

[00:44:00]>> Um, and we did a trip to Circus Circus just to, you know, really really get me into >> um gambling spirit. I haven't like since taken it up. Um, but yeah, it's an interesting place. Let's put it like that. The >> the next time I went, I was old enough to gamble properly.

[00:44:15]I I think we we like we flew in. We were 21 at the time and wherever we were staying, I can't remember where, but we we went to a blackjack table. There's a really nice lady on on there with us who was, you know, teaching us the ropes.

[00:44:29]And she just said, "Look, if if you can if you can understand that Las Vegas is effectively Disneyland, but for adults, >> Mhm.

[00:44:38]>> then you'll survive it. Just take it for just take it for what it is."

[00:44:42]>> Interesting place. Back to the World Cup sponsorship and marketing rights more than $2.5 billion. So that's their main principal sponsors. Uh it's 152% up on the previous cycle. I guess more games, more coverage, all of that kind of stuff has helped. So the big sponsors, Bank of America, Verizon, Fritos, apparently maybe Pepsi or Coke, which one is it of the World? I can't remember. They're different for >> Is it Pep? No, I think it's Coca-Cola.

[00:45:10]>> Is it Coca-Cola? maybe pet the Olympics and then licensing. So this is things like games and stickers and whatever else they license out.

[00:45:22]>> Yeah, with the stickers have moved from Panini to fanatics, haven't they?

[00:45:26]There's been >> Panini are doing a sticker book. Maybe this is the last one.

[00:45:32]>> So I was just looking it up. So >> So where did the money go? Right. So they're going to make $13 billion out of this. Where do they distribute it? Well, uh about 871 million is the prize pool.

[00:45:42]They've upgraded that a couple of times in line with their um estimates on revenue. It's a 50% increase on QA.

[00:45:48]There's a preparation fee. There's a group stage exit fee. There's a round of 32 fees. So on so on $50 million goes to the winner. Nice prize pool if you can get it. Paris Sanjiman, by the way, their their prize pool or their bonus pool for getting to the Champions League final, they shared it with all their back room staff as well. clubs. Clubs get 355 million through the club benefit program. It's basically compensation for using their players. There were 19,000 player days from Qatar. So, this will be even more because it's a longer tournament. Um, member associations get money through the FIFA Forward program, also known as Giani's bribery scheme, where he gives money to small federations like Micronesia and and wherever and they vote for him in the upcoming election. He is standing again, he said, for a third time in a two-term limit presidency. Work that one out. So, it actually doesn't work out to that much money, but you get a lot of bang for the buck if you build football fields in Micronesia, for example. So, it's it's really 8 million per association across the cycle. So, it's 211 associations. They have more assoc associations than a line association. So more than actual countries or not all of them official countries but some of them have football teams.

[00:47:11]>> Um the confederation view actually if you think about how they actually split the money it actually doesn't look that generous. So for example they paid out more to Manchester City and Chelsea through the club world cup than they will pay out to you know the vast majority of associations through this cycle. Beaver itself claims 3.8 billion of tournament staging costs.

[00:47:34]How? But I guess that stadium rental having all their officials in fivestar suites, Giani's masseuse and whatever else he likes to get. Yeah, he had a $85,000 bed at one stage. So maybe he needs a special bed >> and the motorcades that are like >> the motorcades.

[00:47:51]>> They're like what the president what what President Trump gets.

[00:47:55]>> Yeah. Uh Vancouver told him to [ __ ] off which was the right call. Yeah.

[00:47:59]Canadians uh passive aggressively very nice but under underneath it is a bit of edge. Um where is this hospitality and operational cost? So they're doing things in hotels and stuff like that.

[00:48:11]Governance and admin.

[00:48:14]I guess that's paying the staff. Um reserves. They they have about 4 billion in reserves FIFA apparently.

[00:48:24]And they do this weird thing where they actually lend out money to associations who need it as well. So they're basically a lone shark and it's matched through the Swiss government. It's very confusing, but I was trying to work that one out. Who gets paid what. This is great. Infantino officially $4.67 million. He also gets his apartments paid for and all his expenses paid for as well when he's on travel. He had this situation in Qatar where he got a free apartment. I don't know where has he been living in Miami this time round? So close to Mara Lago hanging out with Donald and all of that. It's Is it outrageous? Well, Richard Masters is going to make about2 million pounds.

[00:49:03]He's the Premier League chair, chief executive.

[00:49:07]It's probably in line. It's a fraction of their overall revenue. Feels grubby, doesn't it? So, yeah, that's the World Cup. What have we learned from this?

[00:49:17]It's not just TV anymore, which used to be the big line item. It's It's really milking the fans for tickets, which is in line with all American live events, but feels very alien for most people.

[00:49:29]>> Yeah. And look, I think my view on this, and look, I I've written about it, is look, I get that football needs to commercialize itself better, but I don't think that should be at the expense of the product. And I think, you know, specifically the World Cup, I've been to a number of the these tournaments now.

[00:49:50]One of the best things about it is that you can mingle and immerse yourself with people from all sorts of different countries. You know, you can speak to them, have conversations with them.

[00:50:02]There is a real festival carnival type atmosphere. And I remember like my dad, it was one of the reasons why I went to an international tournament when Euro 96 was on. he was working in Birmingham and he was like he still talks about it how you know when you had the Dutch fans come to Birmingham he's just like it's a sea of orange and you've never seen anything like it that as you pointed out with things like the fan zones and things like that like they're so sparse the locations are so far apart that's my biggest worry from this is that if you're going to it okay the game maybe once in a lifetime it might be something you remember but will everything else around it >> also match up to I'd be really surprised. A lot of cities have cut back on fan zones, for example, because of the cost. FIFA is not helping them with this. So, it's on the local taxpayer.

[00:50:51]There's a if it was in Europe, I think there would be a different view on this that it's part of, yes, okay, we're paying some money, but we got this great thing coming and the festival, as you say, there'll obviously be fewer fans coming in from outside. That would not have been the case if the ticket prices weren't quite so high or we didn't have an environment where generally visits to the US are down. I mean, go look at the numbers. They're quite significantly down. I can kind of understand why there's some fear about that as well. It hasn't exactly seemed like a welcoming environment.

[00:51:25]Anecdotally, again, in Seattle, you wouldn't know World Cup was coming.

[00:51:28]There's no branding around town. Like you you just wouldn't you just wouldn't be able to tell, right? So I I don't know whe the local cities are whether that's the same in each local city.

[00:51:39]Maybe some are are leaning into it more than others, but not here. They've canceled the big fan zone. There'll be a couple of smaller ones. Many cities did.

[00:51:47]I think New York canceled their big one.

[00:51:48]San Francisco did as well. So if you have a smaller fan base coming in because ticket prices uh astronomical, it's really spread out. You don't have local fan zones and so on. I I think it might have a very different feel.

[00:52:02]what they do do well here and I I just don't know if we'll even get this you know is the kind of tailgating vibe that you get and that is that is fun right you get people will it's a day event right from very early in the morning you'll get people like driving up parking doing the barbecues they do here again and it goes all they do a flotilla for the university games where they everyone the fan the the tailgating happens on boat because it's a water-based city >> yeah And the stadium, the university stadium is right by the water downtown.

[00:52:36]They do a big march going to Lumenfield for the Seahawks games and the Sounders games. You know, you get that nice vibe.

[00:52:43]FIFA may have killed that as well though with the way they're they are you can't drive to the games and transport is insanely expensive.

[00:52:52]>> Yeah. And and you know, on that point, I think I I've never experienced tailgating, but it's one thing that I really want to really want to experience. One of these big things is like cross- sharing that fan experience and like what's the fan culture like in this you know in these different countries. So the fact that there are going to be I think less traveling fans you don't even get to share that and that's that's something that you know maybe some countries would want to take back to their own clubs. Uh so I just think it's I think it's just gone too far really.

[00:53:25]And when you're thinking about watching it on TV, you know, part of the atmosphere is also hearing what it's like in the stadium. If it's fans that don't necessarily usually watch football, even from visiting countries, that's also going to change the dynamic >> very much. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. American sports culture doesn't have a singing and chanting and dancing. It I mean, you know, some of them are loud and that kind of thing, but it's it's just it's a very different vibe. If you go to MLS games, it feels very different than uh than Europeans might be used to. I mean, of course, this is the world, but how many how many fans from each country will be coming to provide that atmosphere? It wouldn't surprise me at all if there quite a lot of flat games atmosphere wise.

[00:54:11]>> Totally. Like, and I remember on this culture point, I remember so Euro 2016, I went to France tournament that Iceland went really far in infamously.

[00:54:20]France adopted the thunder clap from Iceland once right >> you know will you get that same thing and I remember I was I can't remember which city it was but it was when Hungary were playing I think it might have been Marseilles >> and I was with my friends and literally every single person who was watch who was Hungarian were basically marching through the town in their black t-shirts like the ultra and I'm we were >> there's some dodgy ones there but >> we were a little bit intimidated by it but it's like I'm fairly sure that's not going to happen in America.

[00:54:51]Well, they might well Hungary didn't qualify, did they? But if they did, they might welcome the Black shirts there for a different reason. Yeah. I mean, I'm looking forward to it in the sense that it's 100 games, you know, there's who who can not enjoy the actual football once it gets going, but the the pricing and the commercialization around it is is off-putting. It may have gone too far um in terms of what we get as the product. And the product is the whole thing. It's the games and it's the atmosphere. I know we were talking before we came live, but and this is very much probably a European issue, but it's like we won't be like even though there are more games, you know, I won't I would typically try and watch as many games as possible. I will not be waking up at 2:00 in the morning to watch Haiti and Scotland even though I want to watch all the Scotland games.

[00:55:37]>> Outrageous. We're going to get hate mail from Scottish fans here. And you know, like not that I would necessarily watch I think it's Austria versus Iran at 5:00 in the morning, but it's like there are some games where I just know I'm not going to watch it and like, okay, I can watch it on repeat, >> but we know it's not the same.

[00:55:53]>> Yeah. No, AB. Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, and and um fair enough in a sense because the the game has to spread around the world. I just don't know whether we need another tournament in America. Mexico may be different, right?

[00:56:06]They real fan culture there. Um, a shame there aren't more games there. All right, I think we've uh covered it all.

[00:56:14]Come on, United. Let's win these last two games of the season. Let's go spend an offensive amount of money in the market >> and get everyone really angry again, you know.

[00:56:23]>> Absolutely. Well, they're always angry about everything. There's nothing you could do that wouldn't make people angry. If we'd signed Enrique and spent 600 million pounds in the market and bought every star on the planet, there'd still be things for people to be angry about. It's just the internet.

[00:56:36]>> The beauty of football. Go check out Jamie Substack subprime goals and the director's impletters if you want breakdown on um the finance of football. I'm at NQAT pod newsletter a couple of times a week and on the socials patreon.comqatpod for our bonus show. I think we'll do one on Michael or Carrick with um Adam or Wayne, can't remember which one. Maybe both of them. Who knows? Thanks a lot everyone. Bye now. Bye.