Uh Oh! F1 Became Too Dependent On Gulf Money

Ajouté : 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]What's going to happen if the final two races of the year are cancelled? Well, I think F1's got an idea for that. One that might mean a return to Sang could happen. Here's why. Stephano Dominic said it was our duty as a global sport to have an alternative option ready. And well, that's what they apparently have.

[00:00:19]Now, yes, the F1 CEO has said a few odd and even egregious things lately, but that to me sounds like a man with a plan. And more importantly, a man with a plan who is quite free to choose exactly how much of said plan he is willing to reveal to us. Now, the fun question here would be something that Matty and Tommy would be asking, saying, "Where does Formula 1 go next?" But I think there's a better question than that. When did Formula 1 stop treating replacing tracks like a plan B solution and make it some kind of power play? Because this might explain why Formula 1 wasn't in any rush to replace Bahrain and Jedha with some kind of emergency track. They were more than happy to let April slide partially as a side benefit to allow the FIA and Formula 1 to come up with some sort of tweaks for the formula itself. But ultimately, it's because they had a better solution in mind or they could maybe slot them in later those tracks.

[00:01:11]But what if they can't do that? Because if they can't bring in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain into 2026, I think they might start to activate their reserve calendar solution, a shadow calendar if you like.

[00:01:24]A group of circuits and governments who may not make the final cut, but are close enough and warm enough and rich enough to move when the world gets messy because, well, it is messy right now.

[00:01:34]You see, Formula 1 generated $3.9 billion in revenue last year. And race promotion fees that made up more than a quarter of that. So when those two Middle Eastern races, and they were big ones for Formula 1 disappeared from the calendar entirely, that not only caused a sporting problem and a logistical problem, it also caused a money problem.

[00:01:53]As I say in one of the titles you might be served up, estimates are about $200 million lost. And we've still got two Middle Eastern races to go, my friends.

[00:02:03]We got Qatar and Abu Dhabi. And both countries pay massusively for the races of Formula 1. Abu Dhabi especially because they pay even more to have the right to call themselves the Formula 1 season finale. Now, I would like you to hold that particular chestnut and look forward to Monte Carlo because Monte Carlo is the best example possible of old money still clinging on desperately to some sort of influence in Formula 1.

[00:02:28]Because this race has been on the F1 calendar since the beginning and has mostly remained ever since. And it's been racing even before Formula 1 is in thing since 1929. It carries heritage and pedigree that no new venue can buy.

[00:02:43]Even some of the more, you know, medium-term circuits like Baku or even Kota can claim to be an historic track.

[00:02:51]And even though it's had to pay a little bit more in terms of hosting fees than they were used to, they still have to pay relative peanuts to some of the more modern circuits, including the Middle Eastern ones. And that tells you plenty because Formula 1 absolutely adores heritage when it's useful for them. But the modern Formula 1 is more interested in local governments and tracks paying big money for global attention. Because right now, Formula 1 is still one of the most popular motorsports in the world.

[00:03:19]It may slip or plateau in the fullness of time, but it's still right up there.

[00:03:23]It has not collapsed. I mean, give it a couple of years. That attitude might change. Might. So, I think that actually gives Stephano just cause to actually remain calm in public and be this nonchalant and rage batty with so many of the older fans, whilst I believe the bean counters over at Formula 1 headquarters are absolutely bricking themselves. And behind the scenes, it'll only get worse. So, allow me to play my tiny violin for them. You see, team payments are tied to F1's commercial performance. So, if race promotion money takes a proper hit, the pain doesn't stay neatly inside Liberty Media's accounts. It'll reach the teams eventually, and we all know how much of a stink they caused regarding Andretti Cadillac's arrival in the sport. They've all got financial skin in the game now.

[00:04:06]Cadillac especially, because they reportedly paid $450 mil just to enter the sport, then spent an estimated 20 million on that Super Bowl livery reveal commercial alone. So, if major race revenue disappears because of geopolitical drama, the new team will feel that pressure before it's even found its feet. And given the United States of America's role in this particular regional mess that Formula 1 has found itself embroiled in, there is a very, very grim little irony in that one. And not to mention the actual calendar is close to actual logistical capacity as well. Yes, the Concord agreement does say 25 races can take place, but realistically 24 is the limit unless you really want to be starting to think of A and B crews. Realistically for Qatar and Abu Dhabi, F1's really only got two options. You either replace those races or you lose them entirely.

[00:04:57]You just take the L for the year.

[00:04:59]There's no magic third option where Formula 1 gets paid anyway and no roles are filled. So, who would actually realistically fulfill that gap? And you may be thinking I'm British bias. So you know what? I'm just going to satisfy you and say Le Silverson. They put their hat in the ring. Stuart Pringle, their main man, said Sky News that hey, we'd be down for doing a second race this year.

[00:05:22]Wait. I mean, they did it in 2020, so why can't they do it again? And I imagine that quite a few fans would be thinking, "Oh, two opportunities to go to Silverstone." Yeah, I think let's remember here everybody likes Silverstone in the summer. These two races start at the end of November at the beginning of December. If you put Silverstone in that window, that doesn't really look like a proper rescue mission to me. It looks like many of the fans would have to be wearing three jumpers just to turn up. And besides that, a second Silverstone round is not under consideration. So, you know what? That's fair because whoever's going to be replacing Qatar and Abu Dhabi, they need to have reliable weather backing them.

[00:05:59]So, we're talking about like 17 20° ideally. If it's warmer, fine, I suppose. And not to mention basic human decency. So, gatekeepers out there, I hate to break it to you, you want that sweet romantic European race to be taking up clutch, the northern European ones. I don't really see that happening.

[00:06:17]You know, the likes of Hockenheim, the Nurburg Ring, or even Mugello. I don't really see them being able to come up with it because the weather, it's not really playing ball on their end. And this is the part of the video where I believe the patterns are starting to show that there is a shadow calendar forming. And we've got to go for Turkey.

[00:06:35]Turkey announced that they are going to be back next year to much fanfare and for a 5-year deal. And this racetrack, they've raced in F1 before back in the 2000s and subbed in during the Rooney Rona for a couple of years when the calendar was ripped apart. The track knows F1 and F1 knows the track and the relationship between them is alive again. Then there is of course Portimal.

[00:06:57]That's been confirmed for next year too and the year after that. Like Turkey, it became useful during the pandemic and F1's own announcement framed it as a venue that proved itself when the sport needed help. That last bit's important.

[00:07:10]And wouldn't you know it, both of them have eventually found themselves with a formal contract. Again, I mean, it took them a while, but Formula 1 ultimately came good for them. But I don't think there is any sentimentality here because Stephano has made it very clear. It's all about the money, baby, and things providing much much profit. I think this is all to do with their policy because what the pandemic taught Formula 1 is that the calendar does not have to be inflexible. It is not set as formal scripture. The calendar can be rebuilt with minimal difficulty and it can actually best serve Formula 1 to bring in some pretty big banger moments because IMLA 2021, Turkey 2020, those were defining moments. they were destined to return to Formula 1 eventually. It would just take the right circumstances and the uh the right moola. But what it did show is that Formula 1 can go to circuits without having to beg them to actually go racing there. They just have to wait for tracks to line up and show their enthusiasm and willing to support the cause. And it also might be signaling the tide is turning in regards to Formula 1's dependence on golf money. Yes, it's incredibly welcome. I mean, I don't think Formula 1 is going to sniff at $200, $300 million or anything like that, but that money may no longer be irreplaceable. And that's really uncomfortable news for anyone within the Middle East because they've really financially accelerated F1 since Bahrain joined the calendar in 2004. All of the tracks pay an absolute fortune. Qatar and Saudi, I think they pay the biggest fees of anybody. These races are important to them, too. They're all about state ambition and tourism and prestige and soft power and yes, a little bit of sports washing for good measure. F1 sold them constant international attention with engines attached to them. As in, it brought those countries into the wider public eye and softened stances towards the Middle East that had been for the longest time incredibly incredibly aggressive. bringing some more understanding because I do remember back in the day when the Middle East became big news, it was very very much misunderstood. I'm glad I understand it a little bit more now. But the problem with that though is that Formula 1 ultimately became dependent on the money that those countries were willing to pay. And for the longest time, the move looked absolute genius because when things were stable and the overall geopolitical world in the region was calm, it paid big bucks and it was absolutely secure. But the moment things start to get a little bit shaky and things could be shaky for a good while now, it all starts to fall apart and I remind you of the last time the region fell into crisis and there was a question of whether or not Formula 1 should be even in that region at the time. I take you back to Jedha 2022 when a Saudi Aramco facility was struck during the race weekend. You could even see the smoke from the circuit. Drivers then spent hours in meetings debating whether or not to stay there or just get the hell out of dodge. But F1, they raced anyway. That was the moment when the sport's commercial confidence collided with something darker and far less controllable. Now, I'm not saying that Jeda is not going to be coming back this year because Dominican, he did suggest one of the April races could return to the schedule and it's most likely going to be the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix because they reportedly pay even more than Qatar. And there is a lot of interest in Formula 1 returning to that country because they've got a contract to be running a Saudi Arabian Grand Prix through 2030. Not necessarily at the corny circuit, but even at the Kajia circuit, the one that you've seen in renders looks a bit like Rainbow Road. And also, if things go really well and there's an appetite for it, Saudi Arabia, according to some sources, say they are down for holding two Grand Prix, the Cornish Circuit and Kajia. And to be fair, the Cornish Circuit is a bit of a banger. It's a terrifying one because it's just so so narrow and the barriers are like right there. But a banger is still a banger. I just don't want them to be banging into the wall is all. But still, there's a cost in asking the paddic to trust a calendar block that's already been hit by reasonable conflict before and it's now happening again. F1 though has raced through uncomfortable situations before. But I think Dominican needs something better than just pure hope and just say, "Oh, it'll be fine by then." And quite frankly, my dear ladder folk, I don't think the crisis in the region is going to clear itself up by September. In fact, my recent guesstimation says that things won't really start to clear up until after the US midterms. Yeah. Okay.

[00:11:29]The mood's gotten a little bit dark.

[00:11:30]I'll admit it. So, uh um how about Spang, eh? The Malaysian Grand Prix stopped in 2017 because the value for the Malaysian government stopped making sense. Attendance had fallen and the region had already seen Singapore become the regional glamour event. So, what was the point of trying to compete with that? So, F1 moved on. But us fans, we didn't because that circuit became one of the most nostalgic tracks anyone could remember. If anyone says, "Oh, where would you like to go racing again?" Most people say Hawkenheim and the Nurburg Green, but Span gets mentioned fairly often. And annoyingly for Stephano, they are right the fans to miss it because even though it's not seen Formula 1 for nearly a decade, that track still has FIA grade 1 status, which means in the right circumstances, Formula 1 could return there relatively quickly. It still holds major motorsport and the track pays an estimated $2.36 million to maintain that status and they do that for a reason. And not to mention logistically, it's right next to Koala Lumpur International Airport. So you can land the circus next to the circus. And as for the weather, well, you don't need to worry about that being chilly. It's tropical rain you should be worrying about. But quite frankly, the tropical rainstorms are part of the overall spectacle anyway. Imagine F1 losing part of its late season Middle East block and replacing it with a circuit drivers respect. The older fans miss and Southeast Asia actually remembers. That could easily be sold as a triumphant return like Turkey has been. But we do need to cool our jets a little here because Malaysia's sports minister Hannah Yo did say that bringing F1 back is not their priority. The public money argument is still there. Full hosting fees are expensive. Anyway, Singapore's not gone away. That argument is still in place. And then there's nearby Thailand wanting to join the calendar. So realistically, Malaysia probably doesn't want to be getting into a bidding war to have F1 return to their shores when there is so much competition than there was back in the late '9s when Spang arrived on the calendar in 1999 and was a pioneer circuit. These days, it would be one of like two or three. People in that region may only be able to afford to go to one of those races. And for the longest time, Span could just say, "Hey, we've got you covered." the Southeast Asian region. Them hosting a one-off race. I think that's a whole different animal. And why do I think this? Well, the circuit itself is now known as the Petranas Sapang International Circuit, as in the title sponsor of Mercedes, a sponsor that's been in Formula 1 for near three decades now, in bests and has a huge claim to that track. So, if F1 needs a warm grade one historically credible venue with a commercially motivated sponsor nearby, Zapang's no longer a fantasy. And I'm certain Toto Wolf will get himself involved in any negotiations. I mean, he's already gotten himself involved in the regulations for this year, so hey, why not? We also do need to talk about Thailand. Now, Thailand's not the obvious emergency answer for 2026 here.

[00:14:23]But it is absolutely part of the leverage story because Thailand has made it very plain to everybody that it wants to host a Formula 1 Grand Prix badly.

[00:14:33]Now, I'm not saying they want to host a bad Grand Prix, as in they just really, really want to race there. But I know you're going to be thinking, "Oh, okay.

[00:14:39]Are they going to Burm?" Well, uh, they're not really pushing for that.

[00:14:43]They're wanting to do a street race around Kungp. So, uh, you might be then going, "Oh, another street race then."

[00:14:50]Well, I mean, if you want to feel better, the trend in new Grand Prix we've seen on the calendar have been more permanent than street. So, uh, we might have actually hit the ceiling in terms of how many street tracks we might see in Formula 1.

[00:15:02]That's a good thing, right? But then to be fair to the Thai government, they are willing to stump up the cash to make all of this happen. And it certainly helps Alex album being on the calendar. That's exactly the kind of local hero storyline that helps sell tickets and headlines and TV packages in a new market. Kind of like how Franco Collapinto is trying to do the same thing for Argentina. They too vying for a return to the calendar.

[00:15:23]So even if they don't get on the formal F1 calendar, could they maybe join the shadow one? H maybe. But anyway, F1 knows all of this as does Liberty Media, the owners of F1 and now Moto GP. And that last bit, Moto GP, is very, very relevant here. But just to finish on the album part, just imagine if Williams turned out to be spicy. And at the first Thai Grand Prix, Alex is in the top five or even on the podium. That would create huge, huge buzz and get many locals suddenly going, I missed that. I got to make sure I'm here for next year. But yes, if you don't want to see a street circuit track around Krung Tep, Buriram might be a viable option given that they now have certain ties and working relationships with Liberty now that they have bought into Moto GP. No, in fact, they own Moto GP. So, for now, I don't think we're actually certain as to where exactly the Grand Prix is going to be at. So, I really don't think there is going to be a 2026 alarm bell ringing in there, but it's certainly worth your consideration for the future. Is it spanner worthy? M maybe, but I would just say the aperture is getting smaller and smaller by the week. I think what would be more effective for the region is to have that one-off race around Spang. It'd be a calling card for everyone in the region saying that, hey, F1's alive and kicking again in the region. There might be a lot of demand here and this might be where Formula 1 wants to put a lot more attention into if we get to a point where the US market is either in a state of oversaturation or starts to fall off in a major way. So instead of America, look to Asia. But at the same time, it will make the barrier for entry all the more expensive as Sepang realized. They had it good back in the late '9s, but by the late 2010s, oh, it was getting unjustifiable.

[00:17:10]Hopefully, it might be justifiable again. So I think that and Turkey and Porter Mauo is turning the whole shadow calendar theory of mine into something that you could describe as now becoming a live commercial experiment. And then how could I not talk about Ka Lami? The perennial maybe track. Africa is the only inhabited continent without an F1 Grand Prix. The last time that happened was back in 1993, 33 years ago when I was only seven. Lewis Hamilton's also spent years asking why F1's not in Africa and he's made it his mission to bring it back into the sport and it being one of his final missions. The other obviously getting his eighth world title and to be fair it would fit the weather map because well Johannesburg in late November would be like early summer. And what also helps K army is that they have been given formal FIA approval to make upgrades to the track that would bestow upon them grade one status. But that is also something that counts against them for 2026 candidacy because they are currently a grade two circuit insufficient for the needs of Formula 1. Not to mention the work hasn't been completed yet and it also needs to be inspected and signed off by the governing body. So, I don't really think we're going to be seeing a situation where, yeah, Kyle Army might be down to host a Grand Prix, even if it's a one-off at a cut down rate, just for necessity sake. But also, I don't think Formula 1's going to be that desperate to go, you know what, you're grade two, but we'll let it slide this one time because what would happen if there were an accident? And yeah, I don't think they really want to take that risk, the FIA. And I don't think that's going to change no matter how nicely Lewis asks for that to happen.

[00:18:47]So, no, I don't think we're going to be seeing Kyle army next year. But I do think they are very much looking likely to be joining the shadow calendar as well. And that's only going to make the conversation about a South African Grand Prix returning to the calendar even louder and more justifiable and more likely that we might be seeing this toward the end of this decade or at the beginning of the next one. And it certainly helps that Hamilton's political heft is still really, really strong. And him then coupled to Ferrari, it's only going to accelerate that even more. Having that influence right behind you as some kind of ambassador, that's only going to do you the world of good.

[00:19:24]And that's the pipeline I think F1 seems to be building. Politically useful and commercially interesting tracks. And if they're emotionally powerful ones, well, that's fine by Formula 1. That'll appease the old school fans. You see venues that aren't always on the calendar but become very useful when contracts lapse or regions wable or force majour starts kicking doors down that gives F1 a new kind of calendar power because in 2020 emergency circuits were absolutely vital to maintain the sport. These days all of that trying to come up with backup plans for tracks and stuff it's all become a really handy dandy negotiation tool for those circuits and the current ones. If we're getting to a point where a contract is coming up for renewal and the circuit realizes that Formula 1 wants more and more money for them and they suddenly go, "We're not paying that kind of thing." Stephano can just go, "Well, we've always got these guys right here waiting to take your place, so what's it going to be? You want to maintain this global attention? You want to risk flipping that coin?" And look, I don't like that idea. I think it's hugely greedy. I think it's hugely capitalistic, but that's just the way it is right now. Politically speaking, they have current tracks over a barrel. Well, I mean, not the tracks that have maintained contracts well into the 2030s or in the case of Miami and Austria into the 2040s. And I seriously believe that Turkey and Portugal are the first two examples of shadow calendar members suddenly joining the real calendar. And Spang, it becomes more than nostalgia bait when you put it that way. It looks like a commercially viable solution, especially even if it's just for a one-off race. And then if the demand is there and the profit is there, a formal contract might be on the table in the future. And if Thailand gets formal adoption into the calendar, it would signal to everyone in the region that Formula 1 wants to do business with them. And then Kyle Army, well, that's the emotional heavyweight as in I've heard constant stuff about a South African Grand Prix. Lewis wants it.

[00:21:19]There is stuff happening behind the scenes to make it happen with the government and with the track. It may happen in the fullness of time, but maybe not right now. Give it give it a while. All of them play a particular role and Stephano has chosen to admit that in some shape or form by saying they Formula 1 have options in caseQatar and Abu Dhabi are cut from the calendar for one reason or another and they might get a little bit of money in return as in they may not get the full whack from those Middle Eastern countries, but they would certainly make enough to tide them over. and you know 3.9 billion or 3.5 it may be down a couple of hundred mil but I think they'll live especially if those one-off emergency tracks provide to be really good TV and then they can do a formal contract for more money and with places that are a little bit more geopolitically secure at least currently and those tracks they've also got a little bit of security themselves they don't have to go begging to Formula 1 every other year begging for a Grand Prix they've got some sort of pre-contract I think with Formula 1 and all they've got to do now is wait for the phone to ring from them to answer the call. When that comes, they'll be ready to go and make stuff happen. I seriously believe there is a shadow calendar here. And if you're a grade two circuit wanting to make the jump up to grade 1 and hope for Formula 1 gracing your door, then you know you know what to do. I do think Stephano is down to hear what you got to say. They better contact Stephano and Liberty Media fast because things are ramping up fast and you should move fast over to this video over here because I seriously think you'll enjoy it. I'll see you over there.