Old Guardian turns gacha gambling into a rigorous data science project, exposing the brutal odds hidden behind flashy events. It’s a masterclass in optimization that proves winning requires more math than actual play.
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Deep Dive
Swift Parry Deck of Fate and Awakening Boost: The Math and Probabilities! RAID: Shadow LegendsAdded:
Hello everyone, it's Alt Guardian here.
There are two really interesting events starting on Monday. There is an awakening boost for soul stones for mortal soul stones that is better than the usual ones. And there is an adventure deck of fate that's going to give swift berry and deflection accessory. So something usually only available from platinum arena. So how excited should you be about these events? Let's take a look at the math.
First, thank you Raid Shadow Legends for sponsoring this video and for giving me this wonderful promo like. Go on to description there in the QR code. A new raid account starting with Narma the Returned, the premium Clan Boss Destroyer, followed by Tagwar a healer, then Venomage and Farrokhin, two other poison synergy champions to go with Narma. These three champions have never been in the same link before. And on your very first day you can also add code raid seven to get Bellower's Victor, one of Raid's newest champions.
So the events are coming up. First there's an awakening boost. Well, the awakening boost and the deck of fate happen at the same time. And awakening boost is going to contribute points for the deck of fate as well.
But just looking at the awakening boost in isolation, Monday May 11th, X2 chance to get four star, five star, and six star perfect souls for mortal soul stones for 96 hours.
And this is the best type of X2 event there is for mortal soul stones because some only give a boost to five star and six star souls, but this gives boost also the four star souls. And in these awakening boost events all of that boost comes from the probability to get one star souls. So you will get fewer one star souls and instead of those you get upgraded directly to four, five, or six stars.
And this reflects in the mortal soul stone value. Well, it can be hard to measure soul stone value of course like okay, there's probably to get better souls and so on. But we can compare it comparing the sale value of those souls.
So if you were to sell those souls and you would get coins, then if there's no boost, then the value of a single immortal soul stone is 19.7 immortal coins and 4.2 eternal coins.
When there's a boost for five and six star champions, for our six star souls, then it's 19.3 immortal coins and 7.6 eternal coins. And with the four to six boost, it's 18.6 immortal coins and 8.3 eternal coins.
So, as the proportion of four star and above souls increases, the immortal coin value goes down because you get immortal coins for selling souls from one to three stars, and the eternal coin value goes up because that's what you get from selling four to six star souls. So, as you can see, you're going to get a lot more four to six star souls because the value of eternal coins goes up by a lot in the boost events.
But, is it better to open the immortal soul stones during a boost than during a strong deck? So, let's say you're not interested in the current adventure deck and you want to save for a deck that gives you a champion.
If you open immortals during a boost, will you actually make up for all the difference and is that beneficial? And the answer to that is no. You will get around 20% of the points value from selling better souls compared to opening immortals during good event.
So, 80% of the value of the immortal soul stone point value for that event is lost if you open it outside of the event, even if the event has no boost and you open it during a good boost. So, if you want to optimize for just event points, then you want to open your immortal soul stones during events. And if you don't have a good supply of soul stones and you want to try to pursue some of those decks that give you champions like Helcurt was a deck champion, for example, or Rafaela was a deck champion, then you really want to save save your immortals to be opened during this particular deck that you're aiming for. The deck we have coming up on Monday, the adventure deck of fate, these are typically the ones that I would skip. So, usually these these intermediate decks where there's no champion and no soul, then they're just not very interesting. But, this might be a bit of an exception.
Starting Monday, May 11th, 96 hours. You get points with Gear Hunters and Soul Stones, so you can do you can do dungeons, for example. There's going to be 40 cards like in all decks of fate.
And of those 40 cards, 30 contain random deflection and swift parry six-star accessories.
The chest rewards have been unconfirmed so far, but there will be 12 epic cards and you can pin, so it's up to four of the top chest. Chest might give even more of those accessories.
And deflection and swift parry sets were recently upgraded actually in December.
They were upgraded to variable sets.
And now they are one to nine piece set, so you want to get to nine piece.
And in order to do that, well, you can craft deflection and swift parry in forge, but you can't craft their accessories. Accessories have only been available from platinum arena.
So, not very easy to get. And they have some sweet bonuses for those final pieces. For example, and and especially swift parry nine piece, 50% ignore defense, which is huge. It's just an incredible huge damage increase.
And the only way to get the nine piece has been to play in platinum arena and get those chests from platinum arena, and that's how you get those. But, now you can also get a bunch of this stuff from the adventure deck of fate starting on Monday. So, that definitely caught my interest. Okay, so will I be able to get some swift parry nine piece sets together, maybe?
Well, we get 30 accessories. Could be more from chests, so you might be able to improve the odds a little bit.
There are 16 factions in the game. So, every accessory is for a random faction.
Also, we already know that the type of accessory is going to be random in this deck. So, rings, amulets, banners, all random.
We also know that the set is going to be random in this deck, Swift Parry or Deflection.
That means 16 factions times three types of accessories times two sets means that there are 96 different combinations that you can get. You get 30 rolls, 96 different combinations.
If you're targeting Swift Parry in particular, the odds that you will be able to get a nine-piece for at least one faction, so you would be able to get the three accessories. Of course, you still need to craft the artifacts, but you can craft those in the forge. So, the three accessories you would get a ring, an amulet, and a banner for the same faction.
Then, for at least one faction, the odds are 26.19%.
There's actually over 1% chance to even pick up sets for two factions.
However, if you need this for a very specific faction, let's say you have one champion in mind, and you would want that champion to wear Swift Parry nine-piece, then for a specific faction, the odds go down to 1.82%.
Yeah, that's that's one out of 50.
That's not so great.
So, there is roughly a one out of four chance that you can pick up a Swift Parry nine-piece for a faction if you were to complete this deck.
But, a very low chance that you can pick it up for a specific faction, just exactly the faction that you want. But, of course, the more factions that you want it for, the better, the merrier, and the better your odds are.
And knowing that this only comes from Platinum Arena means that well, where else are you going to get that?
And even if you get stuff from Platinum Arena, well, you might not have the nine-piece, and this might just improve your odds a lot more if you already have a partial collection. Personally, I'm skipping this once again. I find myself skipping a lot of stuff.
But, I can also see the potential value for some players. First, if you have a lot of excess mortal soul stones, then this four-to-six-star awakening boost is the best type of awakening boost that Plarium offers for mortal soul stones. So, it would be great to open them here and get the best possible chance to get high-tier souls.
So, that's one thing.
Also, if you are aiming for swift parry nine piece, well, you just can't get it from many places at all. So, this would be the thing. You would want to do this just just for the order to pick up some of those swift parry accessory pieces.
So, it is definitely a good event for some players, but it lacks this sort of wide player base wide appeal like something like Hildy would have had, for example.
So, I'm skipping it, but if specific conditions apply to you, then you might want to do this.
Thank you for watching. Click like and subscribe if you enjoyed this, and a special thanks to all of my Patreon supporters, YouTube members, and Twitch subscribers who make all of these videos possible.
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