MAJOR NEWS! NEW RALLY STARTING?🚨 (Crypto Market Update)

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:03]Good afternoon everybody. Good evening and welcome to this new video on the crypto markets. Welcome back to a full uh middle of the day market updates.

[00:00:10]We're going to do a full updates on the current situation. It's quite a lot of volatility. We just had um a pretty significant flush actually. Uh you can see that right here. Um when I when I was live streaming, we had a bit of a bit of a move to the downside.

[00:00:23]Ultimately got a move into the 7-day running VWAP and we see good recovery right here. Um, we just had some major news coming out. So, we'll start off with that. The general fundamentals were still good. I mean, the general fundamentals this entire week have been good. Um, and that is still the case right now, right? I mean, if you look at equities, they're at alltime highs. Volatility index is basically the same. Um, oil prices are up slightly, but they're still relatively low and they haven't changed much. Uh, so general fundamentals still quite good. Coinbase Bitcoin premium dipped into a discount uh briefly when we had that flush. That would be very bearish if that happens, but at the moment it's um you know, it's it's positive. We're at a premium, so it's good. Um and like I said, fundamentally, we just had some news.

[00:01:07]We'll talk about that and we'll talk about Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum. We'll talk about altcoins in general. I mean, yesterday, I'm I'm fairly happy with uh with with my assessment, right? to me yesterday I told you, okay, it actually looks like we have the opportunity for altcoins to do quite well, especially DeFi. Defi has done very very well in the last 24 hours. Um, but I do have my question marks with the uh sustainability of this move and to the upside, right? I mean, it is a real move into the upside. There's a lot of momentum right now, which you can see right here on the screen as well. Um, but but I do have my question marks and we'll get to that at the end of the video. Uh first of all the news and the current situation for majors. This is the news. Lebanon and Israel agree on the 10day ceasefire. Now ultimately you'd say okay this is bullish right?

[00:01:53]This is bullish. We can pump again. And that is not necessarily wrong. However I must say that given that the market is not really reacting this might have been priced in. And if it's priced in then it can also mean and you see this very often right? I mean I I very often say this whenever we have good inflation rate data or something coming out. Usually what I say then is okay this is actually the perfect timing as well for wheels to offload their positions. And sometimes what you see is that retail sees this news they think oh great news we're going to pump imminently. Sometimes that's true sometimes it isn't. And then retail gets trapped in longs and we see a big move into the downside. And that is what we will have to see for now. um at the moment like my my critical level for Bitcoin zooming out a well no let's zoom in a little bit more the chart is ugly um but my most important level for Bitcoin is still 74,500 at the moment we have gotten back up to that level but we have not been able to break above that sustainably and I really need to see a strong break above that before I would say that we're going to get a move up higher right otherwise we're just going to consolidate and potentially even get a move into the downside right so so we really need to see something like this so so the key level is 74500 00 I need to see a break at least above 75, uh, 100, right? Because the best breakouts always leave a bit of a gap to the downsides and if there's a lot of volume, most likely we're going to move into that. And that is what we'll have to see right now, right? Um, because at the moment, what you can see if you look at the order flow is that there's quite a lot of longs coming in, right? I mean, over the course of the last 14 minutes, um, the volume is, uh, $650 million where we have $125 million more longs than shorts coming in. All great, but ultimately that does have to lead to a technical breakthrough. And the technical breakthrough would be a break above $75,200.

[00:03:45]If we don't get that, I would say this is quite a lot of longs being trapped.

[00:03:51]And then we can also see still see a reversal into the downsides, right? I mean if we for example right now right I mean if if if we look at Bitcoin the most important level is 74,500 we'd like to break above that right if we break above that we can rally into 76,000 again 77,000 again right and this is Bitcoin but ultimately you can see that the entire market is quite correlated so what I say on Bitcoin also has implications for altcoins um although the Bitcoin dominance is quite weak so if if I expect a 1% move up for Bitcoin um expect a two to three to 4% move up on uh the specific altcoin that you're looking at, but that's a a critical level. And then to the downside, I would say the critical level is right here at 74,000, which is a 3day value area low.

[00:04:35]Um if those longs get trapped and we get a breakdown below 74,000, I know the fundamentals point into the other direction, but sometimes all the fundamentals look great and we still have a move into the downside. So for me, the situation for Bitcoin really hasn't changed from this morning because this morning I said wait for a breakout.

[00:04:52]Um, and even though we just had bullish news, I still think that's the case. Um, I'm not certain what the I'm quite interested in what the funding rate is doing. Uh, whether we actually have some spot buying coming in as well. Yeah. So, you can see the funding rate is decreasing, right? So, if the funding rate actually gets towards zero. Um, that means that Bitcoin is no longer overshorted or overbought when it comes to spot positions and then it gets tricky. Um, then we can certainly see a movement to the downside. So wait for that confirmation for any major decisions is what I would say at this point of time. It's obviously not advice but um or not financial advice but that's what I would wait for. Um Ethereum looks quite good at the moment.

[00:05:32]Honestly, Ethereum has a little bit more momentum today and ETH BTC also got a good touch right here. Um so Ethereum I'm I'm a little bit more certain about that this is um that we can stay in this consolidation right here. Um, but ultimately for for Ethereum, we're also waiting for a breakout above 2380 before we see a move into the upside. Same thing for XRP, right? XRP BTC has been incredibly strong. Great news, right?

[00:05:56]Finally, some strength. Um, it looks most likely they're going to move into the upsides, but um, a lot of the momentum right now for XRP, and this is also a great bridge towards talking about altcoins. A lot of the momentum right now for XRP is shorts closing and that's what we're seeing across the board. Right? So you see a ton of altcoins very strong a very strong uh Pendle quite strong. Pendle is actually Pendle is quite interesting.

[00:06:20]We'll get to that in a moment. Um but but Gala very strong uh polka dot very strong. But all of these and that's indicated by this red candle. That's that's one of my personal indicators. Um all of these are fueled by shorts closing. And shorts closing can be great. You can have some massive rallies and some massive squeezes based on shorts closing, but at some point of time, you need to get some actual buying back into the price to make these rallies sustainable. And I'm not certain if we'll be able to get that to make these rallies sustainable, right? So, so that we can actually have a rally, right? So, polka dots obviously to to use this example, it's great. it's bullish. But if we actually want to see something like this, which is what we're, you know, hoping for, we need to see some buying coming in. And I think what we need to see for this buying coming in is a continued uptrend for Bitcoin, right? Um so so that is what we're waiting for. If if Bitcoin is not able to break through, um I think most of these coins are going to stop rallying locally, right? So so put in local tops relatively soon. So I would be relatively careful with that. Um, what you're looking for in terms of altcoins right now, um, is coins that not only are rallying based on shorts closing, but actually are rallying based on longs opening. And Pendle is one of those coins. Now, Pendle, I must say that it's it's a bit of an extreme case.

[00:07:42]It's a great project, right? I mean, don't get me wrong, fundamentally, it's a great project. Um, but Pendle at the moment actually has very positive funding rates, and you can see that the open interest is rallying up a lot. So, that's a bit of a the other side of the spectrum, but that's what you're looking for. Most other altcoins if Bitcoin is not able to break out um I think are going to locally top relatively soon. Um if Bitcoin is able to break out, we can see a major rally starting for altcoins, right? So so what I showed you on on Polka Dots, but then across um many many more altcoins and for Bitcoin itself right now, we're waiting for a breakout either above 75,200 or a breakdown below 74,000. And despite the good news coming out and despite the fundamentals being good, I still think it's about a 50/50 right here. So ultimately, I hope that's enough to prepare you for the markets right now. If you do have any questions, make sure to let me know, right? You can best let me know in Discord or Telegram, but check that out. But for now, that's it. Have a great rest of your day. Take care and bye.