Iran's IRGC has shifted its military strategy from targeting Israel to attacking neighboring countries like the UAE, a doctrine called 'zaif kushi' (killing the weak), because attacks on Israel produce insufficient propaganda value due to Israel's effective Iron Dome defense system, while the UAE's geographic proximity and weaker defenses make it a more effective target for demonstrating regime strength to supporters.
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As I see it, the IRGC got the idea that targeting Israel is too much of a risk, so they keep the small attacks on their neighbors and nothing bad happens.
>> I think the RGC attacks on Israel have stopped or become sometimes go to a minimum because what the fuck is the point? it doesn't it doesn't produce the damage that they're hoping for and they like so here's the thing why are they one of the why is one of the main reasons there are multiple reasons why they're hitting the UAE okay but one of them is because they need to show their pro- regime people that we are you know fucking up Zionists right so the be the in their mind the best way to say that look at this we're devastating designers is to shoot missiles at Israel. But what videos comes at what what videos come out of Israel? Like, oh my god, this car is on fire. Oh my god, this parking lot is on fire. Like they keep on trying to show like we devastated Israel, but it doesn't produce the um it doesn't produce the videos required to show that they have been successful. Meanwhile, the UAE is sitting right next to them, closer with less defense. So much closer. So guys, the close the proximity is very important. The proximity, the closer you are, the harder it is to defend, right?
Because like Israel gets some time, like when the missiles and drones are coming from Iran to Israel, Israel gets notified while they're underway. Okay?
And they could prepare for the drones.
they could prepare for the missiles. UAE is like right there. Like what preparation is there? There's no preparation. This is why we think Palestine should never be a country because Palestine is just so close to the so-called you know their so-called Palestine country will be so close to Tel Aviv and there's no defense against that right. So UAE doesn't have all the Iron Dome. I mean I guess they have now doesn't have all the defense that Israel has. um it has a much less significant version of that and they're right next to the Islamic Republic. So, and it helps that the UAE is part of the Abraimic Accord. So, I guess they're Zionist, right? You know, UAE is like a from the Islamic Republic's perspective is that UAE is just basically an Arab version of Zionism. It's an extension of global Zionism. So yeah, we are so causing a lot of devastation to UAE will be perceived by regime supporters that devastating global Zionism, right? And this is why they have this word global Zionism instead of just Zionism so that they could you know attack people who are not Zionist and call it attacking Zionism, right? Um and also UAE is considered like a US ally and it's the most hostile towards the Islamic Republic as well. So, it's a win-win and it's a way. Another thing is that benefits Islamic Republic by targeting UAE. I mean, there's a lot of things that hurts them because they they attack the UA, including the fact that they just lost all their financial institutions that they use to use as loopho as a loophole around the sanctions that all went through the UAE.
They lost all of that. Uh, but another benefit is that the UAE has lobbying power over the United States. So they were hoping that attacking the UAE will make the UAE uh lobby United States to like I don't know cut it out I guess but that didn't happen. It actually backfired. The UE is now the most one of the most aggressive countries to to try to be against Islamic Republic. But however also the UAE having the Prime Minister Netanyahu in the UAE and also UAE thanking Prime Minister Netanyahu for the Iron Dome. Um, and also saying that this would never be forgotten. And even getting the iron from Israel basically shows the Islamic Republic makes the Islamic Republic's propaganda work because they say like, "See, we told you these these motherfuckers are Zionists." Uh, so like, "Oh, I guess that I guess we are devastating Zionists, I guess." So, so it gives the regime supporters the the the it helps with the propaganda that we're actually winning because they can't win against Israel. They can't win against the US bases in the region. They can't win against US Navy in the region. So they go with the UAE which produces better results. We call it Z Kosi which means killing the weak. So you just go find the weakest person available to you and you just target your forces on that.
>> Okay. First to respond we have Hey, you guys kind of touched on it. So, you're it's good. Well, one of the ways that helps kind of people get their head around it and air cricket and a lot of other people have been saying this in the chat uh you know reinforcing what Armen's saying. So, when it comes to long range strike munitions from Mullah occupied Iran that might have gone down. That said, short range, you know, attacks from their proxies that are more geographically colllocated or at least closer to Israel, that's been sustained, which is why Israel is doing ground have been doing the missions they've been doing in southern Lebanon.
So why would the Müller regime switch? Part of it is is that, you know, Operation Midnight, uh, Operation Epic Fury hammered the living shit out of their long range strike munitions. We're maintaining, dynamic targeting, etc. The other part is is that, you know, Israel's Iron Dome is extremely effective at shooting down long range.
Well, a lot of different things. That said, short range indirect fire like approach towards provide or you know pursuing indirect fire against Israel that's a lot different. I mean it's you have less time to intercept. The cost for a Casam rocket is like a couple hundred bucks versus an Iron Dome interceptor that's like 22,000 at the low end. Right? So those are you have to differentiate between attacks from mulla occupied Iran versus attacks by uh you know mulla aligned and and or supported proxies that are closer located to Israel. Not to say that people didn't do that. I'm just reiterating the point.
My name is Armen Navi. I'm an Iranian political analyst with decades of experience fighting the Islamic regime inside and outside of Iran. Make sure you follow me for more and also make sure you join our discussion group. I'm there almost every single day. Come talk to me there and the rest of the people there in our group calls. It's a great place to meet and talk to people who like talking about politics. The link is in the description and or in the bio.
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