Why The SpaceX Timeline Just ACCELERATED

Añadido: 2026-05-13

[00:00:01]or follow SpaceX news every minute, you know already that something huge happened that fortifies the thesis around SpaceX and actually supplements some other news that we had earlier this month. Let's go right into it. And what you see here is breaking news from I think the Wall Street Journal reported it first, but it was confirmed that Google Google is now partnering up with SpaceX for orbital AI data centers. And that follows, of course, the news we got from Anthropic, right? You heard about that and I reported on this here and gave you my opinion on it that earlier anthropic announced a huge deal with SpaceX getting their Colossus one terrestrial AI compute. So this is one of the largest data centers owned by SpaceX on the ground owned by XAI and then it was acquired by SpaceX. Colossus one, Elon and the team built this massive compute data center and Anthropic bought access to it because Enthropic is exploding in usage, exploding in all kinds of things.

[00:01:14]They are heavily compute constrainted.

[00:01:16]They need more compute and so they're grabbing everything they can. And so Elon said, why don't you just buy Colossus one access? And they got it.

[00:01:25]But as part of this very very important and historic deal, they also announced as part of this agreement, we have also exre expressed interest in partnering with SpaceX to develop multiple gigawatts. Like let that sink in.

[00:01:41]Multiple gigawatts of orbital AI compute capacity. So that just happened a few weeks ago or last week I think. I can't even keep track of this stuff. So a few multiple gigawatts of orbital AI compute capacity that was entropic. And today Google announces Google and SpaceX are in talks to put a orbital data center in outer space. Here's a nice little mockup of this. Of course, that's not how it's going to look like. But what does that all mean? What is happening? is this orbital AI thing that I reported on as the first person on X and YouTube. I provided you guys here on the channel a comprehensive first economic model in November I think last year when this first came up. I did quick back of the napkin back of the Google sheet math and came to the conclusion this is far bigger far bigger than anyone even understands except Elon maybe. So why is it so big? Why is it so big? We will go into some details. But first we have to understand it is so big because this is not pie in the sky. No pun intended. It is in the sky but it's not a pi. It is a data center idea and strategy where you bring these compute satellites which is basically just a bunch of Nvidia GPUs and then soon Tesla GPUs wrapped up into nice little satellites equipped with major solar arrays with five times the solar energy uh compared to Earth per day in space. Five times more energy per square foot.

[00:03:25]And then you have some radiators added to it to radiate out the heat. That's the three components you need. And then you need some lasers to connect the satellites with each other to have large clusters. So you have the GPUs a little bit shielding maybe a little bit maybe tweaked GPUs so they are like radiation safe or better protected from radiation.

[00:03:46]Then you need major solar arrays around it. And then you need major you know radiation arrays cheap stuff but needs to be designed and that's all you need.

[00:03:56]Why am I saying that? Because what is very very important to understand is that compared to other technological endeavors of SpaceX of Tesla and so on of Nvidia of the whole crowd designing orbital or even deep space compute AI AI compute satellites is easy.

[00:04:18]That was my main takeaway when I looked at that. It's like, dude, I can do that.

[00:04:22]Just kidding. But other people can do it. It is a very, very, very easy engineering problem compared to Starship, compared to Roboaxi, compared to an Nvidia GPU. This is peanuts.

[00:04:37]That's what you do in an afternoon as a team like that. Why is that so important? Because it means there is no obstacle. You can start doing that. And that is what I want to emphasize in this video. Now that Google is also jumping on board, this is going to happen much faster than people think. We will have fullon orbital AI compute satellites ready to go in a first commercial prototype latest next year coinciding with Starship becoming commercially viable. So it's a very very big deal and it's immediately launchable. It will have massive margins and the only bottleneck remaining is then Starship. How many starships can you build? How many thousands of starships to actually get this stuff to orbit? And here let me explain before we go into the bigger strategic picture.

[00:05:25]Why Google is such an important step now a gamecher even compared to anthropic what the future of this AI compute constellation will look like. What it has to do with power and civilization.

[00:05:39]Before we go there, let's take a look at the facts on the ground why this is so important. And here we have to read a little bit. Why is this so dramatically important? So these dudes here, there are some energy reports. Microsoft, for example, you read this, is reportedly considering delaying or abandoning its 2030 goal to match 100% of our electricity use with renewables.

[00:06:02]Renewable energy is nice as long as you don't need energy. When you need energy, it goes all out of the window. Now Microsoft says we need all the gas natural gas turbines and gas that we can get because there is a huge energy crunch. That is the quick takeaway down here. AI electricity usage. Look at this. I want you to look at this.

[00:06:26]2023 4% of total produced in USA.

[00:06:31]Okay, that was AI and general cloud compute. In 2026, it's already hitting 7% of the entire energy of the United States goes into AI data centers. By 2030, that's three years from now, it's going to be 20% of the entire US energy is going to be sucked into AI. By 2035, projected 50%, which of course is completely not sustainable and not even possible. It just shows you what the problem is. The problem is we are absolutely screwed here on the energy front. Energy is becoming the central bottleneck for the entire build out of AI for humanity and therefore for progress itself.

[00:07:22]Why is this so important? Because if you become the bottleneck for progress itself, for massive economic growth that cannot happen because we cannot build out compute fast enough, the economic pressure and the strategic pressure on solving this problem becomes exponentially vast.

[00:07:40]And guess who's coming to the rescue? If you know anything about energy, before I go into the rescue, I want to explain the whole problem more in depth. Look at this.

[00:07:52]Gas turbines and gas plants are the only way out of this tactically on a three-year horizon because you can't build any of the other plants. They can't get online. They can't get the energy there fast enough. Everything is about gas plants.

[00:08:07]But there is another giant bottleneck.

[00:08:10]Now the bottleneck of energy trickles down, expands into every single little corner of the supply chain. Three companies on earth gatekeep the AI infrastructure built out three energy companies GE ver Verova Zman's energy and Mitsubishi power stretch to 2030 the order books these are the three turbine producers on earth this is complicated stuff a turbine you can't you have to buy it from them there is no other way not even Elon can do it they need to produce these turbines and they can't they're booked out until 2030 turbine prices have nearly tripled since 2019 being $600 per kilowatt by end of 2027.

[00:08:52]So it's completely unhinged. It's unhinged. We experienced the greatest squeeze in energy ever. Okay. And they go in on the turbine. It actually works.

[00:09:02]You cannot buy a new G gas turbine. Let that sink in. You cannot buy a new gas turbine until 2030. Order books at GE ZMANSI stretch to 2029.

[00:09:16]tripled since 2019.

[00:09:19]We have a giant energy problem.

[00:09:22]This is why. And by the way, this problem is not going to be solved anytime soon. We are completely screwed.

[00:09:28]We are stuck with this problem. This is why space compute space compute is the solution to the problem. Space compute solves the energy problem and in a very very very big way. So here's what James of Invest Answers actually posted.

[00:09:51]Super great post. Space data centers are coming.

[00:09:54]Now we get to the next bottleneck. Space compute solves the problem because in space you have tremendous solar energy potential. Solar energy is already productive and efficient on Earth. In space, it becomes five times more productive because you have five times more solar energy per day, per square foot. In space, you have 247 sun. You have 40% higher solar flux and so on and so forth. You do not need batteries because you have constant sun.

[00:10:28]That means in space you get free and massive solar energy. The entire math of energy costs, the entire math of an energy buildout is now transformed into pure orbital lift cost math. You get energy for free. Instead of building these giant gas plants, super expensive in instead of paying triple the price for these gas turbines, you just need a satellite in space. You get it all for free. You don't pay lease. You don't pay for space. Space in space is free. Space in space is free because space has tons of space and it's three-dimensional. Space is three-dimensional for those of you who didn't know. So up there you have a lot of stuff going on, free stuff.

[00:11:20]And the only cost that compares to the buildout of power plants is now orbital lift cost. But guess who comes to the rescue and brings down or lift costs from currently $25,000 per kilogram with heavy fing brings it down to $200 10x cut by probably next year and then all the way down to $10 per kilogram even though let's see I I see it I believe it when I see it but the $200 is already an absolute gamecher and actually unlocks $200 per kilogram by my math unlocks complete shift shift of all AI built out on Earth into space. My prediction is this happens exactly next year. Not in 2029, not in 2030, in 2027. Next year this thing will be ready. It's all a function now of Starship lifting off, coming back, lifting off again and have multiple maybe 10, 20, 30, 100 relaunches.

[00:12:18]That can happen next year. Of course, it can get delayed, but it also could maybe not get delayed.

[00:12:25]Once that happens, the entire AI buildout will move to space and we will live through that transition from all buildout going into space before 2030.

[00:12:38]And that means when you do the math, the number of starships you need, the number of these things, this is Starship, the number of these big fat things you need as humanity, you need as the human economy is exactly, and here comes the number, unlimited.

[00:12:59]You need unlimited starships. If you had a thousand starships and they, you know, you and you launch a thousand of them every single day because they come back and you launch them again same day.

[00:13:12]Maybe you launch two of them or the same thing twice per day. I don't know if that's possible. 2,000 launches, no problem.

[00:13:21]you if you had the capability of launching 10,000 starships every single day today I would give it not more than 18 months before you could fit from today 18 months end of 2027 before you had the satellite technology completely perfected for massive scale in space that is what I'm telling you guys and that is what people do not understand this is not far away and what people also don't understand is the amount amount of strategic and economic pressure pressure on this thing.

[00:13:57]Never forget if you unlock a new economy, if you unlock something that makes you unlimited money, humans are very inventive. Humans are very fast.

[00:14:06]People sometimes say humans are slow, organizations are slow. That is a lie.

[00:14:10]Look at history. Once the British figured out or the Dutch that you can make money by building ships, putting cannon on it and taking other people's land, they took over the entire planet within like 50 years.

[00:14:24]Think about that. Maybe 80 years. Back in the days, they just figured, oh wait, I can build a ship, go over there, colonize a bunch of people, take their stuff, but I could also build two ships and do twice as much. Or I can build 2,000 ships and do 2,000 times that. And they just did it because it was unlimited. When they've discovered America, do you know how crazy the story of America is? They discovered it. They saw, oh, they have some beaver furs. I don't know what they had. And timber, but there's unlimited beaver furs and unlimited timber. Why don't we build unlimited ships? And within a hundred years, they shipped over infinity humans took over the whole thing because the economics behind it were scalable. They were obvious and they were cash in the pocket. Once you have something like this going on, everything immediately changes. We have we didn't have that for a long time, a scenario like that. Since the Dutch East India Company and since the discovery of America, we it was rare that we had these situations. Now we have a situation like that only that this time it's infinitely larger than the United States or the the the world that they took over back then. Now we are talking about infinity compute.

[00:15:46]I can't like stress enough how crazy this is.

[00:15:51]And the craziest thing I just said it we just had a recording with Herbert.

[00:15:55]The craziest thing about my crazy theory here that we have now infinity economics is that people like the chief investment officer of you know Fidelity private equity that they understand that every time I watch any of these guys talk about SpaceX I was like these people just understand what I'm saying. Do you know how rare that is? All of all the institutions understand the pitch. They say yes we have Starship. It's a monopoly. There's infinity demand.

[00:16:26]There's infinity economic value to be generated through AI satellites.

[00:16:31]Give it a $2.2 trillion valuation. Do an IPO. We buy everything we can because there will be infinity returns.

[00:16:39]That's exactly what's going to happen.

[00:16:41]That never happened before. Not even Optimus. I wasn't even as optimistic on Optimus because this is even Optimus needs to like little things and then scale slowly then who knows what's going to happen. I mean, it's going to be great, don't get me wrong, but this year is nuts. And you will see now that this happened that there will be more and more of these companies. Not many, there aren't many.

[00:17:07]But in the end, here's exactly what's going to happen.

[00:17:12]Google is not going to buy Elon's satellites. Google is going to book Starship and shoots up their own satellites because they want to have control over their own AI. Amazon, I guarantee you, is going to strike a deal with SpaceX very soon. You will hear the exact same story with Amazon. Then you will hear the exact same story with Microsoft. Then you will hear maybe the exact same story with Oracle. And then that's it. Maybe with MA and that's it.

[00:17:41]Maybe some Chinese. I don't know if they're allowed to do that for the Chinese from the American perspective.

[00:17:48]And it will end up being four or five hyperscalers.

[00:17:52]SpaceX, Google, Anthropic, Amazon, Microsoft, maybe Oracle that will own space compute.

[00:18:04]Now, of course, you could say, why is Elon so stupid to give them even free rides up to space? But Elon is not stupid because Elon has to do that. Elon knows it's a very bad look if he owns the entire space compute. He does not want to own the entire space computer.

[00:18:22]That would make him a little evil looking because he would then be the master of the universe and totally control human civilization. And it's actually not smart to do that. It just creates resentment. It's much smarter if human civilization is owned by four companies, not by one. And so I think Elon does the right thing even though it seem it's seemingly giving his competition space compute but I think it's a smart thing. You want a certain diversity. You don't want to be the total dictator of all AI. And so I can my prophecy is Amazon is next. Oracle Microsoft will follow. They will race to space. They will try to build out their space compute. We will have five or six space clouds and they will scale into infinity and that is that the repercussions of the space build out can't even be fathomemed right now. Also we have to consider this is not owned by this is not territory of the United States or of China of anyone. This is a lawfree zone. They can do whatever they want. It is space and it's very hard to legislate something into space because how do you even determine who owns that stuff? No. Like you can't say, "Oh, this piece of space is now the United States." No, that's not possible. So, it's a wild wild time coming to us and I'm very excited about it. You can also see here is another little chart I want to share. Uh in this chart we see that SpaceX by Christian Kyle SpaceX is only 200 satellites away from having launched as many satellites as the rest of the world combined.

[00:20:12]Look at this. Rest of the world launched 15,662 satellites in history and SpaceX has now launched nearly as much and soon many many many more. And that's not even AI satellites.

[00:20:28]So it's complete and utter domination.

[00:20:32]There is zero competition. It is literally as if you are in the great time of colonization or discovery of America and you would have a monopoly on chips.

[00:20:44]Literally starship. Imagine you would have a monopoly on chips back there.

[00:20:48]It's ridiculous.

[00:20:50]Every head of state, every CEO of a mega corporation has to now go to Elon and ask for permission. Please give me some space on the starship.

[00:21:02]And that also means combined with the EI compute buildout, infinity starships. We will need a lot of money. We need to merge Tesla into SpaceX. We need to actually get the robo taxi cash flow in 2027 and 8, which will be hundreds of billions of dollars. into SpaceX so they can build infinity starships because we will need them.

[00:21:26]And before I wrap it up, just understand from an investor, from a free cash flow perspective, even from an economics perspective, from the perspective of an economist, it is extremely rare, if not never the case, that you have a business model like that. Every single satellite you shoot into space with free energy that runs for free in space will be a cash cow of unprecedented proportions.

[00:21:58]And what is better than having an infinity cash cow?

[00:22:02]I tell you the answer. Infinity infinity cash cows.

[00:22:08]If you shoot one satellite up and it makes you a billion a year, maybe 100 million depending on the size, why not shoot 10 up? If you shoot 10 up, why not shoot a million up? If you shoot a million up, why not shoot a 100 million satellites up? And the answer is always the same. There is no why not, just scale.

[00:22:30]Because the appetite, the need for intelligence is by definition unlimited. The more intelligence you have, the more value you create, the more rich everyone gets, especially Elon, by the way, and Tesla shareholders and SpaceX shareholders.

[00:22:47]There is no end to this bonanza. It's going to be crazy. The only end, of course, is if ASI becomes conscious and kills us all, which probably happens, but that's a different story. Let's for now assume we got it under control.

[00:23:02]And as long as we have it under control, the more compute we have, the more abundance, the more economic power we get. And that is the insane situation we are in now. The insane situation. The only thing more insane than the situation is that nearly every Wall Streeter who is involved in this IPO seems to fully understand what I'm saying. And I can't even tell you what that means. That means trillions of dollars are lining up to be pumped into the greatest buildout that ever happened and will ever happen probably. And we are living through this which is nuts.

[00:23:45]And so every Tesla shareholder who's now complaining, "Oh, I don't want a merger.

[00:23:48]I want Rootex here. I want the stock to go up to a thousand before it merges."

[00:23:52]Like, dudes, do you even know what's going to happen? Forget a thousand.

[00:23:56]Like, I'm happy with it. But that's a different story. So that's what I wanted to talk about. I conclude with Ron Baron the genius. I love Ron Baron very smart >> who is giving that little speech here that bit about >> why. Yeah. Let's let's talk about why because like 70 billion of that would be what what the public can actually buy into. I think >> 70 billion exactly right. In fact, right after the offering, uh then they've changed the rules so that five days after the IPO is completed, there will be uh one index in which it will be included. 10 days, there will be another index in which it's included. 15 days, there will be another index in which it's included.

[00:24:38]>> You're talking about the NASDAQ index.

[00:24:42]the uh the president of New York Stock Exchange came, you know, when when I was young, I drove an ice cream truck uh one summer and maybe a summer and a half and one of the things that was important to me was I had to get my carnival bar ice cream truck to the beach route before Mr. Softy got there. And so you have so so one of the guys in my office said and the New York Stock Exchange president wanted to come over and talk to me for some advice. And my friend says, Pat Palino, who's our chief operating officer, said, "Do you ever think when you're driving that ice cream truck that the president of New York Stock Exchange is going to come talk to you for advice?

[00:25:17]Are you serious?" And and they said, "Well, I was able to meet Mr. Softy to where he was going and and and so so >> he came to ask you for advice about whether they should put that into the index early." Well, she was telling me about the different indexes, but she was also uh hoping that they would list on the New York Stock Exchange, and they chose uh they chose NASDAQ.

[00:25:38]>> I think they've chosen NASDAQ, which is where all the uh technology companies are. And she was saying that, you know, there all these other things that she could offer.

[00:25:46]>> But that was part of the auction process where the two exchanges were bidding it up, saying, "Hey, we can offer to get you into the index sooner."

[00:25:52]>> I don't know. I I I think they've pretty much decided that as a leading technology company, they should be listed on NASDAQ where all the other large technology companies have been listed. But uh but there are not there's a lot. So what enabled this company is him. Uh so he comes up with the idea that you'll be able to launch a rocket and reuse it and uh and no one ever did that before and no other rocket company was interested in doing that because if they did then what would happen is that there would not be a demand for as many rockets. So nobody wanted to do this and and they always said it was impossible.

[00:26:27]They said it was impossible because nobody tried >> and when they did try it takes no nobody's been able to accomplish it. So that's what enabled this. That's what enabled us to have Starlink and Starlink after you have that uh and we have the Falcon 9 uh then that brings up and comes back then we decided hey wait there's a demand for in space uh data centers and having instead of having data centers on our planet where it's very very difficult to get the governor won in New Jersey because she said our electricity bills are too high we're going to stop this data center construction making our electricity bills go up her roommate when she was in Congress Congress is the is a candidate for governor in Virginia. She won. Same same idea. So So here you have people who are saying >> not in my backyard.

[00:27:13]>> That's the deal.

[00:27:13]>> And nobody wants it in their backyard.

[00:27:15]So send >> I would have thought they would like it because it would pay taxes, but the people don't like it because um you have not enough jobs and because their electricity bills are going up and the water usage too.

[00:27:25]>> Water is short and electricity is a problem.

[00:27:28]>> And the water you need for cooling which you don't need in space, >> right? You don't need the cooling in space. number one, as long as you have giant radiators and then electricity, which is a huge cost. You don't need that either because you're using the sun. So basically, you're getting free sun, free electricity and free cooling once you get into space. And so now because of the idea of going to space, we've now developed the Starship. And the Starship once that works is going to be 100 times as power, you know, 100 uh I guess it's 200 tons that they could bring to space. And now the Falcon 9 brings I think 17 or 18 tons to space.

[00:28:02]So huge unlock is coming from Starling.

[00:28:07]>> There you have it.

[00:28:09]That was the great uh Ron Baron. And there you have exactly the whole story that is unfolding before our eyes. That is what we had to discuss today. And let's see the comments. Do we have any smart comments here? Let's make it big. I have a new background. Um, he meant all indices. Indexes. Indices.

[00:28:39]Uh, let's see. What do you guys think? Are you pumped?

[00:28:47]This is I rarely pay fees, but I have little inrons partner funds. Nice. Good job.

[00:28:56]Uh yeah so this is truly transformational. I love the situation that we are looking at here. That will be a very very big buildout. Uh I will have more coming a little bit more analysis on the question what does it all mean for the for the IPO and for Tesla and the merger and everything and this big debate we had with rebellionire on X. Are we getting screwed as Tesla shareholders with this merger? Is it happening when, you know, Tesla is so close to scaling robo taxi and boosting our stocks into the stratosphere? No pun intended.

[00:29:39]Or is it all does it matter because we get into the hottest company that ever existed, which is SpaceX?

[00:29:47]How do we think about that? And I shared my my perspective on that. I think I'm totally relaxed on this thing. I am riding Tesla as high as I can, but when it merges with SpaceX, I'm excited about the next chapter.

[00:30:04]I think it's marginal the difference between trying to time the merger, trying to push Tesla into waiting until next year versus this year. Who cares?

[00:30:14]We have a beautiful future in front of us, enormous and ridiculous gains for all of us. So, I don't see any problem with this whole situation and I'm very excited about what happens next. So, I hope that was interesting. If more coming tomorrow, stay tuned. Crazy things are happening.

[00:30:33]See you then.