Stock Market Bull Run, Nifty Prediction for tomorrow, Stock Market Analysis, Small & Midcap Rally

本站添加: 2026-05-10

[00:00:02][music] Hello everyone, my name is Ram Dhija.

[00:00:08]Welcome to my channel. It's been uh one last week of consolidation in the mainline indices and the Indian markets.

[00:00:15]But uh what is actually happening is now that the action is shifting to small and midcaps. Uh small and midcaps have been outperforming ever since this rally began almost a month back. The mainline indices nifty has also gone up from the lows of about 22,000 we are at 24,000.

[00:00:31]So there's about 10% uh up move that has happened in nifty as well. But the real story is happening in small and midcap.

[00:00:37]So what happened last week was that uh midcap select actually was the first one to break its all-time high followed by midcap 150. And now small cap is also in touching distance of breaking its all-time high. What that basically indicates is that the bare market in small and midcap is over. Of course, you can't call a bare market when uh indices are actually making new all-time highs.

[00:00:58]But uh you know the way they had fallen especially the small capsu uh they had gone down by 20 25% and some of the stocks had actually gone down by 50% plus lot of those have actually recovered especially the good quality ones have actually done well. What we are also seeing is that uh indices such as momentum and alpha are also coming back. So they have been hugely up. uh alpha index uh was actually down almost 40% 35 to 40%. And it has recovered a lot of it. So you know we are seeing the texture of the market actually change.

[00:01:29]uh people who are uh who have been in the markets for long enough will identify these patterns and see that actually the momentum now has shifted from big large companies to smaller companies and uh that is an indication that sooner or later you know the the the large caps should also follow suit.

[00:01:48]One problem that we are facing in the market is that why the large caps are not moving is because of relentless FI selling and why that is happening is of course because FIS are pulling money out of India and they are moving into other markets such as Korea, Taiwan and so on even China for that matter. So even uh if you see our weightage and emerging market index it's actually gone down. So Indian weightage which had gone to about 20 21% has fallen from there big time and all the money is actually going into markets which have a AI stroke semiconductor trade. So if you look at uh you know Korean market they just led by two companies which is Samsung and Hinx and their profits are projected to grow at about 100 200 300% yearon year.

[00:02:30]Last year their profits actually grow by some 150 odd%. Not only that the entire market actually went up by 150% led by only two companies. So this is how big the AI trade is and this is how big uh the world is shifting towards AI. India unfortunately doesn't have a AI trade neither direct nor indirect also and that is where you know our markets had been lagging behind. So it's kind of revert to the mean that happened after October 24th where our valuations had run up a lot. But this consolidation period has been very very long.

[00:03:00]Typically bare market you know they end uh whenever they end also they end on a very down note. So March 23 was one when markets were completely down. In fact in March 23 the valuations were even lesser than what they were in March 26. And then the this bare market in my opinion ended in March 26. Uh specifically April 2nd 2026 is when I think this bare market also ended. Uh that was the bottom that we made. I don't think we are touching that bottom again. um simply because of the fact that you know when indices have started to make a new all-time high it basically means that we are out of the woods at least it looks like that uh until unless of course there is something unknown unknown that happens I don't think it's going to be war related because even when there's bad news that comes out of war like there was a news which came out on I think Friday that there has been some some shooting incidents in the gulf of war moves between US and Iran uh crude hardly moved up crude was flat at 100 101 so uh you know the markets have pretty much discounted that this war is over. [snorts] Not only that, even if you look at the US markets, they have been making a new all-time high. So, US markets are least worried about this conflict. Now, uh only thing where we need to be slightly worried is uh the supply of oil, gas, helium, uh fertilizers, petrochem etc through that is where you know our economy is dependent on and our exports to the Middle East of course because they also go through straight form things like rice and so on and so forth. So, that is one. The second thing that we need to be slightly worried about is the remittances. Now if this things don't normalize [snorts] for much longer then remittances also might get hit. So we probably will get hit on two fronts. One is the it which is not performing well and the shift to AI trade where we don't have a play and second is the remittances.

[00:04:44]Of course the price of crude oil is always a factor and you know if the crude price goes up uh further from here then it's going to have an impact on GDP. already uh there are estimates that it is going to have an impact on GDP by a couple of percentage points simply because the price of crude that was factored in for the year was around $85.

[00:05:01]Now I think we are much higher than that. So anything above $80 starts to hurt us and that is where slight uh slowdown in GDP can be expected. But having said that you know already we are seeing the earnings come in and what we are seeing is small and midcaps are leading the charge. So small caps are actually growing by 20% plus. Uh their valuations were extremely decent I would say uh in April starting now the valuations are start starting to slightly go up but having said that the valuations are still not extreme. So if you look at um uh you know some of the good mutual funds that are there in the small cap space their valuations is still below 20p which is great you know and these mutual funds have have delivered quite consistent returns. So I will take you through all those things uh what to look out for and what are the signs uh to see how you should position yourself uh how should your portfolio be made and so on and so forth. So there's lots to discuss do stick around till the end before we begin as usual three things. First is do subscribe to the channel if you already haven't. Second is if anyone is interested in creating or evaluating the mutual fund portfolio free of cost uh mutual fund portfolio which will have combination of uh small med large momentum alpha value quality international gold uh then you can fill up the form uh in the description below.

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[00:06:31]So let us begin today's video. Let us first start off with uh how Nifty has been. So if you see over here, this is a very interesting chart of Nifty. And what it basically is showing that how Nifty has behaved over the last uh uh month or so. And uh you can see that after the bottom that we made on April of 2nd, we've just been going up one way. We we made some uh efforts to break down. We did not. We tested support twice at 23,700. So that becomes a very very important level to watch out for and uh for the last 2 three days we have been in consolidation phase and slightly going down a bit. We have again touched 24,000. So I think we are in a consolidation phase. This is a healthy consolidation. The next up move should take nifty about 24,500 and once that happens then uh you know we will make higher high higher low patterns. Already we are in that phase but u you know uh confirmation of that will come once we break 24,500. So it's clear that you know Nifty is performing uh decently well. If you look at how the 200 DMA of Nifty is so that's still at 25,000 odd u and once we we actually break this 25,000 then we are in a confirmed uh uh we we are definitely out of the bare run and then we'll be we'll be entering into a bull phase after that. So 25,000 is something that needs to be watched out for. I would say it's actually good that the market are consolidating right now simply because you can actually create your portfolios over here. you're getting something which is cheap right and uh so you know these are the good times to build your portfolio all your sips which are going are going at 24,000 so you should look at it that ways you know when the markets actually turn around they will not come back to such levels so for example what happened 2 3 years back you know markets were trading at about 15,000 they went to 18,000 then they corrected again to 15,000 and then they finally broke 18,000 they never came back to 15,000 so you know when your sips are going at 15,000 and market today is sitting at 26,000 you would be sitting at a huge gain. Same thing will happen here as well. Nifty when you know it's consolidating at 24 let's say between 23 and 26,000 right? 24 is the is the current level right now. Once it breaks 26 right then 24 is not going to come for forever right markets might be at 30 35 40,000 at that point in time you will realize that yeah 24,000 was a very good level. So you know this is how markets behave and people who take advantage of the markets actually end up making a lot of money. So uh this is the open interest of nifty. So in the short term what is nifty suggesting it's at8 which is not too much. So it's slightly on the bearish side but I wouldn't call 8 as bearish because we have seen.56 also when nifty was actually at higher levels and you know the March conflict had not happened nifty usually the PCR used to vary from 0.5 6 you know those kind of levels and uh you know we were not able to understand why such high open interests were there it's at8 which is quite decent I would say there's nothing to worry about because simply because uh on Monday and Tuesday about 30 cr contracts will be written And so uh you know we'll come to know how the pictures even if you look at the closest 10 strikes it is okay. It is at 085. So there's nothing to worry about in the put call ratio. If you look at the straddle uh premium straddles premium has actually the first two days were tough but Friday was a decent melt in the premiums as well. So even going into the weekend you know the straddle premium melted. So basically it shows that people are not worried too much about this weekend particularly and there was no news flow that was expected as it is this weekend. So this is a good indication if you look at what the FIS have been up to. So FIS have been increasing their shorts a bit as usual.

[00:10:00]So FIS have been hugely bearish on this market for last 2 3 years and you know part of the reason could be taxation part of the reason could be uh shift to emerging markets shift to AI trades and so on but they have been very very bearish and that's causing a pressure on the markets. They have increased their shorts to 2.1 lakh contracts and you've seen how nifty has actually fallen. So let's see if they cover their shorts or uh how it behaves. Even this is coming out in their sell figure. So if you look at the FI sell figure uh on 8th of May they sold almost 4,000 crores. So they have they've been relentless sellers.

[00:10:31]They've just not stopped. [snorts] Uh DIS on the other hand have been trying to buy you know whatever FIS have been selling. So D again bought 6,700 crores and so on and so forth. So DI if you look at the monthly number also the monthly number is not very encouraging.

[00:10:46]FI has already sold about 11,000 crores.

[00:10:48]Dis have already bought about 21,000 crores. So there will be a time you know when the DI money will also run out if this FI selling doesn't stop. So we just have to hope that uh someday you know the FI is selling stops and uh you know this is also another peculiar characteristic where what you're seeing is that because FIS have been relentless sellers that is why our market especially nifty is not making alltime high and once this FI is selling stops or subdues you will see nifty making an all-time high simply because the valuations will becoming too compelling whereas this money that is coming let's say you know you are seeing the 21,000 crores come in this month lot of it will be going to small and midcap and that is where the rally in small and midcap continues news unabated. Um if you look at how the performance has been over the last one week, so autos has led the rally at 5%. Small cap as I've been maintaining has been the star. So it has gone up by 4% over last one week.

[00:11:38][snorts] Whereas if you look at nifty, nifty is flat. Small cap is up 4%. So this is the outperformance. If you look at last one month, Nifty is flat, small cap is 10.6%. So if you're not able to pick up these trends uh then you know you will get left behind and perhaps you know that is where you need help from people who are seasoned in the markets who know how to spot trends like for example I've been maintaining to all my uh clients that small cap is a beautiful trade to take for the last uh 2 3 months I've been maintaining that small capsu uh are going to outperform and and a lot of people did uh you know take that trade and I think it's worked out well.

[00:12:14]Uh if you look at the other performing ones, pharma has done well. Midcap has done well. Uh metals is is holding on.

[00:12:20]Uh so Metals has been doing well.

[00:12:22]Financial services is okay. The only uh trade which is not working out is it is uh basically down if you see over the last 1 month down by 5%. And India VIX which has cooled off. So apart from that I think everything is looking all right.

[00:12:36]Uh if you look at u how the small cap index has been uh I will just come to that chart. Uh but just coming back to the point let's say you know if you want to invest in um let's say for example small cap how do you do that you pick up let's say a small cap mutual fund now where can you find mutual fund uh if let's say if you want to see which mutual funds are performing well or not so you can go to NJalth website that's uh NJ is India's largest mutual fund distributor I work with them uh so you go to the njwealth.in website you go to tools and calculators. You can go to mutual fund calculators. Over there you can click on rolling returns and over there you will see all these rolling returns come in. So you can go and select small cap funds and there you will see you know you can see 3 years 5 years uh rolling return you will be able to compare. So if you need any help you can contact me. But it's a good website uh to see you can also see your SIP monthly returns. You can see uh returns of lumpsum and so on and so forth. You can go and select any category that you feel like there are so many categories to you know choose like contra, dividend, DLSS, flexi, small anything.

[00:13:39]So all the data is there that you can go and see. Uh what is happening in the world markets? Let us let us have a look. So thankfully crude is okay. Crude has not gone up over the weekend. That is what weekend crude is indicating.

[00:13:51]It's uh flat pretty much. So that is one good news for us. Uh and if you look at the world markets, what is happening is that S&P and NASDAQ are making new all-time highs. NASDAQ in fact is now on on course to break 30,000 which is unbelievable. Uh even Dow Jones has been doing well. U if you look at US 30 years that's not coming down or 10 years that's not coming down much. It's come down a bit but not much. So US 30 years is still at 4.94. It had touched five and then the news came out that there's all piece has been done. Uh but that is something to be watched out for. US dollar index is uh at 97.9 so that's fine and USD INR is is weak so USD INR is back to 94.5 and closer to 95 I would say uh that is something to be watched out for if you look at how gold and silver have performed uh so I had made a video yesterday you can uh see that on gold and silver and uh in terms of all the other metals have also been doing well so metal space is something that is flying off and that needs uh immediate uh attention if that's not there in your portfolio. So that was the wrap about uh the markets and how the markets are looking. Markets are looking all fine.

[00:14:59]There is nothing to worry in my opinion.

[00:15:00]There could be some consolidation here and there 200 300 points up and down.

[00:15:04]But the more important thing is to catch the trends. If you are able to catch the trends early then you end up making good money. If you're not able to catch the trends then you probably will get left behind. But still I mean if you even if you're continuing with your sips I think you still will make uh good returns. So the whole idea is to be disciplined. The whole idea is to continue your sips. The whole idea is to add when uh uh you know the markets are going down and stick with discipline. Maintain asset allocation and stick with discipline.

[00:15:31]Even if you do that, I think you'll make very good returns. So that was the update from my side. I hope you enjoyed it. If you did, please do like, share and subscribe and I shall see you soon with another update. Till then, take care. Bye-bye.