An Extremely Dangerous Storm Is Coming...

Añadido: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]A massive severe weather outbreak is about to happen and you need to prepare now. This outbreak will begin today with a small-scale severe weather event expected in the Ohio Valley and Northeast with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes possible. But tomorrow is the day that stands out the most as a widespread and dangerous severe weather setup is coming. This severe weather will stretch from Texas and Oklahoma all the way into Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin.

[00:00:29]Multiple rounds of storms could develop with very large hail, widespread damaging winds, and numerous tornadoes possible, some of which could become intense and long-tracked. Even after this, severe weather will continue into Saturday. Areas like the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes could deal with additional tornadoes and damaging winds as this active pattern refuses to let up. The next 72 hours will be very intense. So, let's get right into the forecast. And we have a lot of stuff to talk about in today's forecast. And I want to begin with our risk of severe weather for today. This is basically the remnants of our severe weather outbreak from yesterday. We have a large marginal threat of severe weather from New Hampshire back into Arkansas. And there's also a slight risk of severe weather in New York and Vermont. The main concern for today will be damaging wind gusts between 50 to 70 mph. There could also be some large hail, maybe even a little bit of very large hail with an isolated supercell that goes up over near Little Rock, Arkansas this afternoon. But one thing that's interesting is that we now have two tornado threats today. We have a 5% tornado risk just to the east of Buffalo. And then we also have a 2% tornado risk from Buffalo all the way into Vermont. And there's also a low chance of an isolated tornado over near Memphis, just north of Little Rock. So, we could see a couple tornadoes this afternoon, but generally speaking, this is not going to be a major severe weather outbreak. But what will be likely a major severe weather outbreak is what's happening on Friday. And the Storm Prediction Center right now has a massive enhanced risk of severe weather which stretches from Wasau, Wisconsin into Oklahoma City. We also have a slay risk from Michigan back into Texas and a marginal threat that encompasses surrounding areas with all hazards of severe weather on the table, including a very significant threat of damaging winds. Guys, we're talking about a 45% chance of damaging winds within a 25 mile radius for Kansas City just south of De Moine all the way down towards Witchah. And there's also a 30% chance if you're in that red area from Wasa to Oklahoma City. But this hatched area is really what I want to talk about because any storms that go up in this environment are going to likely become linear pretty quickly. And this is going to lead to widespread damaging winds between 60 and 85 mph. So very dangerous day of severe weather is ahead tomorrow.

[00:02:41]I honestly wouldn't be surprised if these probabilities got increased in our next outlook to something even higher.

[00:02:47]So, we could even be talking about a moderate risk of severe weather if trends continue to go the way they're going. There's also a really significant threat of large to very large hail. I know areas like Wisconsin, Illinois, and Iowa are literally sick of severe weather at this point. Unfortunately, tomorrow looks like it's going to be a big day. And we could also be talking about some giant hail. Baseball-sized hail is going to be a possibility out of the most intense supercells during the mid to late afternoon and also into the evening hours. And on top of a severe weather outbreak, we could even have a tornado outbreak. We are expecting a heightened threat of at least a few tornadoes tomorrow stretching from Michigan back into Texas. But I honestly think right here in this brown is where we are going to likely see several tornadoes tomorrow afternoon and evening stretching from northern Wisconsin all the way back into Oklahoma City. Strong EF2 plus tornadoes are going to be a possibility in that hatched area. I think personally our highest tornado threat will probably be over in this area. So maybe even a little bit further north than it currently is. But Wisconsin, you guys are going to be in the danger zone for a few strong tornadoes tomorrow afternoon and evening. It is vital that you are subscribed to our channel because we are going to be live covering this major severe weather outbreak tomorrow with dozens of live stormchasers in the field and thousands of live cameras with every single angle of what is going on with this major outbreak of severe weather that's coming. And the trail of severe weather that's left behind on Friday will lead to one more severe weather threat on Saturday where we have a slight risk from Pittsburgh back into Cincinnati and a marginal threat encompassing this area where damaging wind gusts and maybe a couple of tornadoes will be possible during the late morning and afternoon on Saturday.

[00:04:22]So stay alert if you live over in the Ohio Valley. Now let's talk more about the timing of severe weather. And we'll begin with what is happening today across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. We got some showers and thunderstorms out there across the Great Lakes right now.

[00:04:34]But as we head into the early afternoon hours, right around 3:00 or so Eastern time, storms will begin to get a little bit more organized from Cleveland towards Buffalo. Mainly looking at isolated damaging winds and quarter to half dollar sized hail. And then our tornado threat should peak around 4 to 5:00 as these storms continue to organize. Monitoring any discrete cells that go up over here over near Rochester and maybe even near Watertown. But I think overall the biggest concern here will be damaging winds and large hail down here in the Ozarks. We will also have some supercells going up down this direction. I don't think there's going to be a whole lot of rotation, but if any of them can stay discreet and we get any sort of positive uh, you know, mergers down this direction, there might be an isolated tornado, but I think the risk will be low. Peak severe weather window down there will be between 3 and 8:00. So, most of those storms should fizzle out after sunset. And then as we get closer to 9 to 10:00, all the severe weather is done in the northeast. And then over here in the Tennessee Valley, most of the severe weather will be winding down. Just strong thunderstorms left over. Now, I am really concerned about what's going to be happening on Friday, as we are expecting a widespread severe weather outbreak to take place.

[00:05:36]One of the really concerning things that I've been watching over the last really couple days here on the computer models is that the amount of wind shear that is forecasted here across the Midwest is very concerning. And I think Wisconsin and Iowa are going to be dealing with the most heightened tornado threat for tomorrow, especially during even the early to mid-afternoon hours. This is during the time that people and kids are at school. And so, this is going to be kind of a dangerous setup here. But notice the significant tornado parameter values here. They are going up close to 9 to 10 over there in central Wisconsin.

[00:06:04]And assuming we have discrete supercellular mode here, it is going to be a very dangerous tornado day over here in Wisconsin. But there is one thing that might limit this, which would be a crashing cold front. But overall, there's just going to be so much wind shear in this environment. If we get discrete and semi-discreet supercells going in Wisconsin on Friday, it is going to be a really dangerous afternoon of significant severe weather. I mean, this environment is just going to be unbelievably favorable for strong tornadoes. And back over in Missouri, Oklahoma, and Kansas, we'll be watching for a few maybe strong tornadoes during the afternoon. I think it's going to be more of a damaging wind threat. The environment is going to get really favorable during the evening over in Texas and Oklahoma. Can't rule out a rotating supercell during this time frame, but I think there's just not going to be enough forcing along our dry line to actually develop a supercell.

[00:06:47]Now, let's talk more about the timing of severe weather, and I want to head over to this future radar graphic. I know the time stamps aren't as easy to read, but I'll kind of give you the verbal timestamps here as we head into Friday.

[00:06:57]Obviously, today pretty quiet across the Midwest. You got plenty of time to get ready for the severe weather tomorrow.

[00:07:01]Just make sure your weather radio is ready to go. Make sure that you're subscribed to the channel and also have Max Alert ready to go. That way, you're ready for any sort of tornado warnings near your location. This what it's going to look like by around 2:00. We're going to start to see some convection going up out here to the west of Chicago and even a little bit near Kansas City. Though, these storms don't look that significant at this point. They're going to rapidly ramp up, I think, by 3 to four o'clock.

[00:07:22]And one of the really concerning things that I've been seeing is that we could have a very favorable environment for tornadoes over here in Wisconsin. These little ovals that you see here, these are all updraft hallicity tracks. And what that basically means is a rotating supercell. They're basically everywhere here on the HR. Uh, with several of these storms, and that means there's going to be a bunch of storms out here rotating, producing the risk of tornadoes, even with them being congealed into clusters of thunderstorms. So, the forcing is going to be pretty significant. There's going to be a lot of thunderstorms going up all at once, but those initial supercells could lead to strong, intense, maybe even violent long track tornadoes. So, that is one of the concerns that we have here for Friday.

[00:07:57]By 4:00, there are going to be a lot of supercells by this point. Again, not really spaced out very well, but if any of these storms can stay a bit more discreet, they will be producing an elevated tornado threat, some giant hail, and also scattered, numerous, and even widespread damaging winds. Those storms are also going to ramp up just to the west of Chicago, all around Kansas City, too. We're going to have tons of thunderstorms down there. And almost all of these storms will be producing some level of damaging winds and large hail and also a few tornadoes. As we approach 5:00, we will still have an ongoing area of discrete supercells and semi-discreet supercells all across Wisconsin. And with the amount of wind shear that's forecasted to be in place in Wisconsin, I do think we could have a tornado outbreak here in the state of Wisconsin.

[00:08:35]It is very well in play. I don't usually say things like this, but I do have a very high amount of confidence that this will be the area that is going to at least see a few tornadoes on tomorrow afternoon. And we might end up seeing again more than just a few tornadoes.

[00:08:48]But I'm not going to say we're going to see a bunch of tornadoes here. I'm not going to say we're going to see like 20 tornadoes or something like that. It's just not realistic to say something like that. But this environment is very ripe.

[00:08:56]It's just going to come down to if storms can stay more semi-discreet and discreet and this crashing cold front doesn't play a big factor, which we'll see if that happens. So, we need to watch the model trends over the next 24 hours. Once we have our next video, which might even be this afternoon, if not, it'll be tomorrow morning. We're going to talk all about that and see if there's any changes to the forecast. But definitely get ready if you're over in Wisconsin. Further down to the south and west, lots of damaging winds and a lot of potential down here for embedded tornadoes and a large line of thunderstorms. By 5:00, 6 to 7:00, these storms will continue to congeal into this large line of thunderstorms stretching from Chicago all the way into Oklahoma. And I'll show you guys what Oklahoma looks like here in a moment. By 8 to 9:00, these storms will continue to track to the east through Chicago, eventually going into Indiana and also tracking towards Ohio and Michigan.

[00:09:40]We're mainly looking at damaging winds and embedded tornadoes with this line as it continues to track to the east. And then this what it'll look like by 1 in the morning. So, most of our storms are weaker, but there could still be some scattered damaging winds and maybe an isolated tornado threat as it approaches Detroit and also Indianapolis. Now, for those in the southern plains, it's not going to be nearly as intense, I think.

[00:09:59]But over in Kansas and Missouri, this is where I'm watching for those initial storms to go up, which could really quickly rotate and produce the risk of a few tornadoes. But generally speaking, this environment is going to upscale very quickly. So, it should ma mainly lead to a large to very large hail threat and then maybe an isolated tornado or two. Anything that forms out in front of our cold frontal boundary over here, mainly to the northwest there of Springfield, will have the highest chance of producing a strong tornado.

[00:10:24]And then eventually by 5 to six o'clock, this all congeals into a large cluster of thunderstorms producing basically widespread damaging winds. And then down here, I'd mentioned there is a very favorable environment for tornadoes, but I don't think there's going to be enough forcing along our dry line to fire any supercells around or south of Oklahoma City. If for some reason that does change though, we will let you know because that environment is extremely favorable for significant severe weather. But overall, mainly looking at damaging winds there around Oklahoma City and Tulsa and also a low tornado threat. And then as we head into Saturday, the threat of severe weather will continue across the Ohio Valley.

[00:10:57]We'll be watching for some thunderstorms to go up during the early to mid-afternoon hours. Mainly looking at a large hail threat over there in central southern Ohio. There could be some damaging winds and maybe an isolated tornado if any of those storms are able to latch to a boundary. But I think overall the tornado threat is pretty low here for Saturday. And then as we end Sunday, there will be some rain in areas like Alabama and Mississippi. It's not going to bring really any sort of severe weather, which is good news. But the bad news too is that there's not really going to be a whole lot of rain. and it's going to be pretty light to moderate, but it should at least help with some of the drought that's been ongoing down there in the Dixie Alley.

[00:11:27]Now, once we're done this big severe weather event tomorrow and on Saturday, we will be transitioning into a quieter weather pattern for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. However, severe weather might return around Wednesday and Thursday. I say might because we will have a trough that's going to be kind of on the fringe of ejecting over the Rockies. And if it's able to, we are going to have moisture coming out of the Gulf and there will be enough forcing for some severe storms to happen over in the central southern plains, maybe even as far north there as the Dakotas as we head into Thursday and Friday. Right now, I'm not really confident on outlining any sort of areas that we'll be looking at at least, you know, an organized threat of severe weather. But just generally speaking, if you live anywhere in this area, I'm looking at Thursday for at least maybe some level of severe storms. If this low pressure system actually does eject over the Rockies, but that's a big question mark as of right now. And then as we go into Friday and Saturday, we might even be talking about some severe weather. Then we could even have big storm systems going in the Dixie alley soon. We'll have to wait and see. The European model has been kind of funky on the last few model runs. A few model runs, I saw snow over in Kansas and also Ohio. So, I mean, if there's snow there during the end of April here, I think some people might go crazy. But overall, I got a lot of uncertainty beyond this weekend.

[00:12:32]Let's get through tomorrow cuz tomorrow looks like it's going to be a really long day. And as always, thank you all so much for watching today's forecast.

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