தங்கம் விலை இன்னும் ஏறுமா? கடந்த 10 வருடத்தில் தங்கம் செய்த மேஜிக்! |Gold Vs Nifty| 10 years of data

追加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:02]Hello sir, hello sir, now we have seen the market situation from 2014 to 2026, then gold has given higher returns than Nifty, so what is the reason for that, sir, that is, we have to take this from 2008, gold in particular, gold journey vis-à-vis Sensex Nifty, so in 2008, the major financial crisis came, so it came in the US, the supply crisis started, the banking system collapsed, so global, so always this trend is the trend for our gold, we have seen that when a crisis comes, whether it is a geopolitical crisis, a geopolitical crisis, an economic crisis, or anything else, when it causes a ripple, investors immediately rush from risky assets to gold, that is the trend that comes. A major crash began in 2008, and it had that impact in India. So, looking at its impact, gold was at a peak until 2013.

[00:01:02]The markets won't recover until 2013. The economy is not recovering. We saw in Bud Gold Continues Its Journey 2013 that Gold was at its peak lifetime high during that period.

[00:01:13]After that, a recovery came.

[00:01:15]After 2014, as soon as a recovery came, the impact of Covid was felt again. So, even though gold has recovered compared to equities since COVID, gold's value has continued to be a safe haven, which is why gold has been consistently positive with equities many times over the last 10 years. If the general trend is positive for equities, gold will not be as positive. It will be a neutral house. But during this period, we have seen both rise. This is the first time this trend reversal has occurred. The main reason for that is various factors. One is that gold is a safe asset, a safe haven asset, investors have been accumulating central banks and global accumulation after the 2008 crisis, how to deal with the dollar from the financial system. On that basis, all those central banks have invested in gold in large quantities since that period to de- risk the dollar. That's why when you look at this 10-year period, 2016-2026, and that's when you look at everything in the last 25 years, Trump's tariff policy, the Russian crisis, the Russia-Ukraine war, and then the Iran crisis. All of this continued. When the impact of gold was positive, it was because of the weakness of the dollar.

[00:02:44]We also saw a good trend in gold. So when you look at it that way, both are different assets, meaning our gold and equities cannot be compared. Why [fixing the throat] Gold is a commodity. It comes down to a demand and supply puzzle. If there was a global [global] demand for a commodity, and there was enough demand to match its supply, then we can see price variations. Equities are a completely different asset class. When it comes to price determination, no matter how much gold we buy, the price of gold will be determined in the international market. But in equities, price discovery will happen in our own country. When you look at various factors like the company's earnings, corporate earnings, macroeconomics, the sector in which the company operates, and so on, you will see that price discovery for that particular company will occur. When you look at Where's Gold's price discovery, it's all about international factors. So, it's very confusing, we can't see both of them. We have seen Bud S Gold come in and outperform these past 10 years.

[00:03:48]Okay, sir, there is now a global level of uncertainty that has increased greatly. So, in a situation like this, is gold becoming a better option for a long-term investment than equity, sir?

[00:04:00]That is, if we take a long-term view, taking 10 to 20 years, we see that now, a 10-year gold has come and we have seen it rally well. But when we look at a 20-year period, we see a long, very long-term growth.

[00:04:14]Whether it's wealth creation or compounding, all of this can only be done through equities.

[00:04:19][First] Gold, as far as it is concerned, serves its principal purpose as a safe asset. When gold is uncertain or not, and a severe geopolitical or geo-economic crisis occurs, buying gold as a hedge has been a constant practice. So, accumulating gold based on this type of rally alone is not a good idea. Equity has its pros and cons.

[00:04:47]Gold also has its advantages, so when we look at an overall portfolio, it is advisable to have 10% of our portfolio in gold. That is why we do not want more than 10% exposure to gold. That is, you do not buy jewelry as an investment for yourself, but for your family wedding, all of that is a different issue of consumption, that is, it is a matter of us coming and buying it and wearing it. As an investment-oriented person, don't have more than 10% in gold. There are other assets, now equity has come and performed, and the dividends that have come from it have come and various things in equity. Now, in terms of gold, there is only value appreciation. If the possible price of gold rises, what will be the benefit to us? No matter what this physical gold is, that price appreciation is the same, but in terms of equity, there is capital appreciation, there are dividends, there are opportunities to multiply when all the bonuses come. So, when we look at Rowan's history, gold would not have had the performance that could equate to equity. But in the last 10 years, we have seen gold's huge outperformance due to various reasons - geo-major, geopolitical, and geo-economic conditions. But we can assume that it will come and apply to all time.

[00:05:58]Okay, sir, that's my next cost, sir, they'll make that allocation.

[00:06:01]So, as far as stock market volatility is concerned, there is a slight increase in that volatility. So, in this kind of situation, investors should come and increase their allocation to gold, sir, but in terms of gold, it should not go beyond this 10%. 10% is the upper limit, don't go beyond that. What investors need to understand is that whether they invest directly in stocks or through mutual funds, they can still make predictions to some extent.

[00:06:32]Let's see what the portfolio looks like, whether it's stocks or funds, given the current environment. It is impossible to predict the price of gold.

[00:06:36]Because it is inevitable that price determination will happen right now, and gold will go up or down tomorrow.

[00:06:45]We can only say to some extent, but we cannot say exactly. So that's why gold doesn't always have that predictability factor. Our overall scenario is that there is a global recession, a war scenario, a political crisis, so the dollar will not rise. All of this is our gold trend.

[00:07:02]But exact prediction is impossible, so I'm saying this. From that perspective, analysts don't have a complete idea of ​​what kind of movement this will be. Generally, the trend of retail investors is that they join the rally late only after a trend has started, be it equities or gold. Only after a good rally in gold comes, they start realizing gold. Should I do it now?

[00:07:28]That rally will peak within that. That is the tendency that has been general for many years. When our retail investors see a trend coming and capturing it late, this is one of the things that retail investors do. Even though it has changed over time, the trend still remains. So, if there were volatile conditions like this, we would see more allocation in our equity. Because come [to the market], there is a downtrend. The market will never go to zero, it will definitely happen. There's no chance of it happening like that.

[00:08:05]There is a kind of back and forth between recovery and decline, but dilution of markets does not happen like that. So at some point, it will start rising up. After all this war situation is over, after these war clouds have gone, after the uncertainty has disappeared, there will be a rally in the markets.

[00:08:21]We have seen it come and go in the past. So, in volatile conditions like this, investors should have extra money, so they can allocate more capital generously.

[00:08:32]Don't allocate more than 5-10%. Because it would be a market beyond their reach. Because I don't know how prices will react. Because they need to know the movement of the dollar. I want to come and match it up and see how Gold moves.

[00:08:48]Gold's movement will be based on geopolitical risk like that. So we don't have immediate access to all the data on which central banks are buying and when. It's only after it's gone up that you realize that's why it's gone up. So [Serumutal] So, on that basis, there is no transparency. This market is different from gold, whether it is equities or mutual funds, we know what is happening to the other side, we can see the ticker. You can see the markets.

[00:09:12][First] We cannot predict what factors will come and have a particular impact. So investors will make decisions based on these differences.

[00:09:20]Sir, what kind of reason can you give for this goal rally that took place after 2024? If there are some global events, the only reason for this kind of rally is Trump.

[00:09:30]He took office on November 24 and from November 25, the election was held on November 24. After that, everything from 25 to Goldman Sachs' big rally was due to his tariff economics. Since his arrival, he has imposed his rule on India. In many countries, he has come to India and even if the Supreme Court strikes down the same, that one-year 2025, the period of Trump's rule can be called the golden age for gold. That kind of flip-flops without policy clarity, i.e. one announcement is made today, then another one is changed tomorrow, and the next day another announcement is made. That is, from the perspective of the markets and investors, I am telling global investors that there should be no uncertainty or instability. That is, whatever it is, there should be a resolution like that. Okay, if it's Tariff, then that should be the end of it. My tariff will be revised the next day.

[00:10:26]After one week, the train returned, but this uncertainty came and they didn't like it. So that's why this gold rally is complete.

[00:10:34]Until we get this clarity, let's move to gold.

[00:10:37]On that basis, many investors came and moved to gold.

[00:10:40]This 25 is the Trump rally. We can see the entire 25 as a rally for gold. Infact, surprising, there has n't been that much rally since the war with Iran started.

[00:10:50]The strength of the Big Dollar was so strong that there was no big rally in gold, but the 25% rally came and the credit goes completely to Trump.

[00:11:00]Okay, sir, in the last 10 years, they would have avoided gold and specifically avoided it. So, can you say that they missed a big opportunity with that kind of investor slam, sir?

[00:11:11]I can definitely say that. That means investors should n't feel that way at all. Because it's better not to come and invest in things we don't know about. [First] We missed it when it came to us. If we had invested 10 years ago, we wouldn't be able to determine the returns now from those 10 years ago. It's not over.

[00:11:27]During that period, no one could predict exactly when gold would rise this way or that way. So, like I said, there are factors. There are no one or two factors. Manufacturers who are not in their purview do not come to the attention of retail investors on a daily basis.

[00:11:44]That's all that will make an impact.

[00:11:47]They can't understand the current movement of the dollar.

[00:11:49][Preliminary] It's impossible to say how this global economic crisis, not the global financial geopolitical risks, will impact the economy. Central banks buy and sell everything, but they don't get that kind of data. That's why it's a very crowded market. It's very clear that we can't predict this with any accuracy when it comes to gold. So there's nothing wrong with missing it. It would definitely be better if they had invested in some other good equity or good mutual funds instead. Because opportunities come and go, and even those who are in the market will miss out. So don't worry too much about our missed opportunities. We just need to invest in what we know and what we can understand. We have an example of crypto that we don't know about.

[00:12:32]Many people come and invest without knowing what it is. Many people invest, but they don't know what is good. They don't know it well, so they don't do it. So that's better. If you don't know the risk, you know the risk. Gold also has risk. Even if we say that gold is our safe asset, gold also has risk. If there was some sudden reversal globally, then it can also fall.

[00:12:58]We have seen that in the past, so it is not that, we cannot say that it is a one-way uptrend. So all assets have positive and negative consequences.

[00:13:06]Gold also has positive and negative sides. So, only if we understand this will we invest. Okay sir, will this equity come back and make a comeback or will that gold return and dominate again? No, sir, equities have come back to a certain extent and now the movement of gold has come back and is negative, that is, an inverse relationship, its rally or down trend, when you look at both, it is inverse, that is, if the global economy was positive, gold would not have a big positive. It could be stagnant or there is a chance of a decline. So it is linked directly to the sentiment of the global economy. But that's not the case with equities. That company's earnings, corporate earnings, are important. Macro fundamentals, i.e., macro inflation, interest rates, GDP growth, etc., all come together to have a major impact on the equity markets. So, in terms of equity, it will come back, so we can use this period as an opportunity.

[00:14:11][First] When these volatile conditions occur, we have excess surplus cash, so we can invest it, as I have said before. I mean, if there is an SIP going on now, then we can cluster it.

[00:14:21]When the market falls during the same SIP, you can invest the same SIP amount in the same account, the SIP amount is 5000, and when that same 5000 falls one day, you can invest it.

[00:14:30]So when you use that kind of period, those units increase. They will get good returns when they recover. So, in terms of equities, it is a mirror of the economy.

[00:14:42]When the economy is doing well, corporate growth is good.

[00:14:45]When credit growth improves, corporate earnings improve. If inflation were under control, interest rates would be cut, which would trigger economic growth, so there is a cyclical process like this. So equities will come and it will have a positive impact.

[00:15:00]As far as gold is concerned, as I said before, it's the inverse. If the global economy was doing well and sentiment was positive, that wouldn't be a good thing for gold. If the global economy is weak, sentiment is very weak, and investor sentiment is weak, that is positive for gold. So, it's something that comes and indirectly relates to something external, but it's something that can directly reflect the growth of the companies in the economy, in terms of equity.

[00:15:27]Sir, you said it before.

[00:15:33]What percentage of gold should middle-class investors have in their portfolio?

[00:15:34]You said 10% earlier. So, isn't 10% enough? They need to know a little bit about something extra, that is, a lot. As I said, if they had that access to information, they would come now. That is, our RV is buying at the right time, and as I said before, retail investors will come and join the rally later. The devil will try to catch that head, and the village will leave the devil. So whether it is at the peak or not, whether it is a bubble, we will know everything later. So, for investors, it's very tempting when we come here and see those headlines. Gold prices are rising. Even if we look at everything, like the Sensex, it's out-performed in 10 years.

[00:16:16]Predictability is a factor, so it's a bit difficult for retail investors.

[00:16:21]Accessing that information, that knowledge, is a bit difficult. No matter what we do, no matter what we Google, the predictions are always based on the events that can happen at that time.

[00:16:35]That's what we've seen in the past. So I don't really understand it, so I can limit it. There has been some price correction, so don't invest beyond that 510%, there are many better opportunities in the market. Sir, someone came and invested 1 lakh in gold in 2016, so at the same time, another person came and invested 1 lakh in NIFTY. So, there's a big difference between the two of them now, sir. That is, when I look at the last 10 years, I have to say that gold has out-performed. Because that growth, as I already said, was in a good trend after the 2008 crisis.

[00:17:11][First] We saw that gold rose even more after the Covid period. So, in the last 18 years, there have been two crises, and these two crises have given gold a good rolling push. At the same time, even though there was a recovery in equities in that area, it took many years for that to happen. From 2008 to 2013, there was no major movement in equities, after that financial crisis. Even though we had a rally in the two years after COVID, we saw our equity underperformance persist for almost seven or eight years. Wears Gold came and went consistently. That was also important, and after 2008, many global investors, especially central banks, started investing, and we saw that trend continue to rise in gold. So when you look at the outperformance, you can see that Gold has done well in the last 10 years, and you can see the numbers.

[00:18:05]But we cannot be sure that if we cut extrapolation and keep this alone, gold will perform better than equities in the next 10 years. The last 10 years have brought us a trend that is giving us some perspective. But we can't say for sure if this will happen again in the next 10 years. But General Gold has that purpose. If you invest in gold, it has a purpose, and if you invest in a safe asset, that purpose is there. When it comes to equities, you can expect all of that growth, dividend income, and capital appreciation in equities. So, retail investors should have everything in a portfolio. This is what it means, only gold performs, so do you put everything in gold or is equity better? Putting everything in equity is like that.

[00:18:50]Risk is something that we can diversify to some extent in all assets, or our allocation is only a way to get an overall portfolio return, and at the same time, we can also take our risk.

[00:19:00]Because there was a very heavy exposure to equities, in this kind of period, we can see that value appreciation. If there was a little bit of gold and a little bit of everything in equity, then that balancing comes and gets correct. We can see a problem like this in a volatile market. Therefore, when you allocate assets without looking at just one trend, you can diversify risk and manage returns to some extent. Thank you, sir. Thank you. To watch more upcoming business and related videos on the Tamil channel, click the subscribe button below.